From mboxrd@z Thu Jan 1 00:00:00 1970 Return-Path: Received: from zimbra8-mta1.ics-il.net (mta3.ics-il.net [65.182.164.55]) (using TLSv1.2 with cipher ADH-AES256-GCM-SHA384 (256/256 bits)) (No client certificate requested) by lists.bufferbloat.net (Postfix) with ESMTPS id 88F6C3B29D; Tue, 14 Nov 2023 08:48:36 -0500 (EST) Received: from localhost (localhost.localdomain [127.0.0.1]) by zimbra8-mta1.ics-il.net (Postfix) with ESMTP id A339C80095; Tue, 14 Nov 2023 07:48:35 -0600 (CST) Received: from zimbra8-mta1.ics-il.net ([127.0.0.1]) by localhost (zimbra8-mta1.ics-il.net [127.0.0.1]) (amavisd-new, port 10032) with ESMTP id X8ZwOpZPTS4Q; Tue, 14 Nov 2023 07:48:34 -0600 (CST) Received: from localhost (localhost.localdomain [127.0.0.1]) by zimbra8-mta1.ics-il.net (Postfix) with ESMTP id A843380106; Tue, 14 Nov 2023 07:48:34 -0600 (CST) DKIM-Filter: OpenDKIM Filter v2.10.3 zimbra8-mta1.ics-il.net A843380106 DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=ics-il.net; s=C00B5EF2-1A13-11E6-9265-5A85BB0A090D; t=1699969714; bh=00VVKfbljBhAeluIuZPCGUDu96w9my2UmtAswhIF8vs=; h=Date:From:To:Message-ID:MIME-Version; b=NoBaWrIu+glcp0Rt1a8rNBENdC/ZFYGw89b+9F+Acs0ltBIjsLvMMHyxKg0n7uAZx HrhbKrWGXw2R4qPDYeGH9b3StQVTrOMSaduqnyw92ywySYfdQ+hbFtj3jXfPY7+JP8 2kfapUDdIy6NWRLsdxpP4PiKiL71IXSegEgOx7eo= X-Virus-Scanned: amavisd-new at zimbra8-mta1.ics-il.net Received: from zimbra8-mta1.ics-il.net ([127.0.0.1]) by localhost (zimbra8-mta1.ics-il.net [127.0.0.1]) (amavisd-new, port 10026) with ESMTP id eSIay9h_Othq; Tue, 14 Nov 2023 07:48:34 -0600 (CST) Received: from zimbra8-mailstore1.ics-il.net (Zimbra8-MailStore1.ics-il.net [10.1.8.63]) by zimbra8-mta1.ics-il.net (Postfix) with ESMTP id 5C64780095; Tue, 14 Nov 2023 07:48:34 -0600 (CST) Date: Tue, 14 Nov 2023 07:48:33 -0600 (CST) From: Mike Hammett To: Dave Taht Cc: Internet-history , Network Neutrality is back! =?utf-8?Q?Let=C2=B4s?= make the technical aspects heard this time! , NANOG , bloat Message-ID: <1551250521.2225.1699969708495.JavaMail.mhammett@Thunderfuck2> In-Reply-To: References: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_Part_2224_1075104275.1699969708493" X-Mailer: Zimbra 8.8.15_GA_4508 (Zimbra Desktop/7.3.1_13063_Windows) Thread-Topic: The rise and fall of the 90's telecom bubble Thread-Index: 825qGy5WDab61+fYKPsOJSK9339fBg== X-Mailman-Approved-At: Wed, 22 Nov 2023 08:01:06 -0500 Subject: Re: [Bloat] The rise and fall of the 90's telecom bubble X-BeenThere: bloat@lists.bufferbloat.net X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.20 Precedence: list List-Id: General list for discussing Bufferbloat List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 14 Nov 2023 13:48:36 -0000 ------=_Part_2224_1075104275.1699969708493 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=utf-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable There were obviously many facets, but I think one of the turns was due to D= WDM. You no longer needed a pair for every circuit. That then contributed t= o the glut of strands.=20 -----=20 Mike Hammett=20 Intelligent Computing Solutions=20 http://www.ics-il.com=20 Midwest-IX=20 http://www.midwest-ix.com=20 ----- Original Message ----- From: "Dave Taht" =20 To: "Internet-history" , "Network Neutral= ity is back! Let=C2=B4s make the technical aspects heard this time!" , "NANOG" , "bloat" =20 Sent: Sunday, November 12, 2023 9:48:46 AM=20 Subject: The rise and fall of the 90's telecom bubble=20 Aside from me pinning the start of the bubble closer to 1992 when=20 commercial activity was allowed, and M&A for ISPs at insane valuations=20 per subscriber by 1995 (I had co-founded an ISP in 93, but try as I=20 might I cannot remember if it peaked at 50 or 60x1 by 1996 (?) and=20 crashed by 97 (?)), this was a whacking good read, seems accurate, and=20 moves to comparing it across that to the present day AI bubble.=20 https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/lessons-from-history-the-rise-and=20 In the end we sold (my ISP, founded 93) icanect for 3 cents on the=20 dollar in 99, and I lost my shirt (not for the first time) on it, only=20 to move into embedded Linux (Montavista) after the enormous pop=20 redhat's IPO had had in 99. The company I was part of slightly prior=20 (Mediaplex) went public December 12, 1999 and cracked 100/share, only=20 to crash by march, 2000 to half the IPO price (around $7 as I recall),=20 wiping out everyone that had not vested yet. I lost my shirt again on=20 that and Montavista too and decided I would avoid VCs henceforth.=20 I am always interested in anecdotal reports of personal events in this=20 increasingly murky past, and in trying to fact check the above link.=20 So much fiber got laid by 2000 that it is often claimed that it was at=20 least a decade before it was used up, (the article says only 2.7% was=20 in use by 2002) and I have always wondered how much dark, broken,=20 inaccessible fiber remains that nobody knows where it even is anymore=20 due to many lost databases. I hear horror stories...=20 The article also focuses solely on the us sector, and I am wondering=20 what it looked like worldwide.=20 I believed in the 90s we were seeing major productivity gains. The=20 present expansion of the internet in my mind should not be much=20 associated with "productivity gains", as, imho, reducing the general=20 population to two thumbs and a 4 inch screen strikes me as an enormous=20 step backwards.=20 (I have a bad habit of cross posting my mails to where older denizens=20 of the internet reside, sorry! If you end up posting to one of my=20 lists I will add a sender allows filter for you)=20 --=20 :( My old R&D campus is up for sale: https://tinyurl.com/yurtlab=20 Dave T=C3=A4ht CSO, LibreQos=20 ------=_Part_2224_1075104275.1699969708493 Content-Type: text/html; charset=utf-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <= div style=3D'font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; colo= r: #000000'>There were obviously many facets, but I think one of the turns = was due to DWDM. You no longer needed a pair for every circuit. That then c= ontributed to the glut of strands.


=
-----
Mike Hammett
Intelligent Computing Solutions
http://www.= ics-il.com

Midwest-IX
http://www.midwest-ix.com<= /span>

From: "Dave Taht" <dave.taht@gmail.com&= gt;
To: "Internet-history" <internet-history@elists.isoc.org&g= t;, "Network Neutrality is back! Let=C2=B4s make the technical aspects hear= d this time!" <nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net>, "NANOG" <nanog@nano= g.org>, "bloat" <bloat@lists.bufferbloat.net>
Sent: Sund= ay, November 12, 2023 9:48:46 AM
Subject: The rise and fall of th= e 90's telecom bubble

Aside from me pinning the start of the bubble = closer to 1992 when
commercial activity was allowed, and M&A for ISP= s at insane valuations
per subscriber by 1995 (I had co-founded an ISP i= n 93, but try as I
might I cannot remember if it peaked at 50 or 60x1 by= 1996 (?) and
crashed by 97 (?)), this was a whacking good read, seems a= ccurate, and
moves to comparing it across that to the present day AI bub= ble.

https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/lessons-from-history-the-= rise-and

In the end we sold (my ISP, founded 93) icanect for 3 cents= on the
dollar in 99, and I lost my shirt (not for the first time) on it= , only
to move into embedded Linux (Montavista) after the enormous popredhat's IPO had had in 99. The company I was part of slightly prior
(= Mediaplex) went public December 12, 1999 and cracked 100/share, only
to = crash by march, 2000 to half the IPO price (around $7 as I recall),
wipi= ng out everyone that had not vested yet. I lost my shirt again on
that a= nd Montavista too and decided I would avoid VCs henceforth.

I am alw= ays interested in anecdotal reports of personal events in this
increasin= gly murky past, and in trying to fact check the above link.

So much = fiber got laid by 2000 that it is often claimed that it was at
least a d= ecade before it was used up, (the article says only 2.7% was
in use by 2= 002) and I have always wondered how much dark, broken,
inaccessible fibe= r remains that nobody knows where it even is anymore
due to many lost da= tabases. I hear horror stories...

The article also focuses solely on= the us sector, and I am wondering
what it looked like worldwide.
I believed in the 90s we were seeing major productivity gains. The
pres= ent expansion of the internet in my mind should not be much
associated w= ith "productivity gains", as, imho, reducing the general
population to t= wo thumbs and a 4 inch screen strikes me as an enormous
step backwards.<= br>
(I have a bad habit of cross posting my mails to where older denizen= s
of the internet reside, sorry! If you end up posting to one of my
l= ists I will add a sender allows filter for you)
--
:( My old R&D= campus is up for sale: https://tinyurl.com/yurtlab
Dave T=C3=A4ht CSO, = LibreQos

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