From mboxrd@z Thu Jan 1 00:00:00 1970 Return-Path: Received: from mail-qk0-x235.google.com (mail-qk0-x235.google.com [IPv6:2607:f8b0:400d:c09::235]) (using TLSv1.2 with cipher ECDHE-RSA-AES128-GCM-SHA256 (128/128 bits)) (No client certificate requested) by lists.bufferbloat.net (Postfix) with ESMTPS id 6358A3B25E for ; Thu, 27 Oct 2016 15:41:42 -0400 (EDT) Received: by mail-qk0-x235.google.com with SMTP id x11so12332347qka.1 for ; Thu, 27 Oct 2016 12:41:42 -0700 (PDT) DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=gmail.com; s=20120113; h=mime-version:in-reply-to:references:from:date:message-id:subject:to :cc:content-transfer-encoding; bh=KDiQEJbnqT8blH0LmilxfSTrbHT/9fTaZlEC/AHF7AI=; b=df9V4OE1M7Q+W69tuy++c+Vgm68Hkpn9rNEBoYMBx9+aTMZL3vG2+YOj5vD+CoFeho i94+DeUd724kiJ4m4352JoEN86hntvSeoMqC4+PR4ctwJN0/LV/QMn/bynoRYaDiQ/hJ 9HE3Ig/5wm49gTe/y/SuY+y7+yimEO+YtFdPjTQ6MKLWK3CCKli61CRnZsqrurjkuwPP 4ykgOgvmeklwi6xsQif4JaV7h+OA/NnhpyaowqFzd1HRCVrrBA0QqrEf8uTX4ZsKQYeU BBwMfx+iJtuEroqzyO7rm9XWyD2/tWweD6yD692Hb+i+tVZVZUZkUnVerZOKaAUA2mJJ t4PQ== X-Google-DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=1e100.net; s=20130820; h=x-gm-message-state:mime-version:in-reply-to:references:from:date :message-id:subject:to:cc:content-transfer-encoding; bh=KDiQEJbnqT8blH0LmilxfSTrbHT/9fTaZlEC/AHF7AI=; b=I6MxQV9397FwuSt4S4oI/PH2lobGaJmVPV4uH61e8wOJ2ftqqOoqRD9zcwXqzms3nH YkEuOn7X5sD//JGhL22YPctZVVJk/JhjeM1/2ggn8rQ01pDSeGjiBT5eQ/jO0xnurMwV wjplWY1za6KjUoKHH5KH9H628GVVm3nYuO/8hY+WasqYYDLoOpo22PhVCg1pW9AKa2bV ZGq/bQ8eTXw5Hne75Bh0JLQ2L5ucBdCehYECOa7UdaHgMyY5PlLtLG6YFrjD06ZkfPl/ +fGj7GfYfoTo8KNiejMbbPrZ1OsYl6hp4IpQNLS6vDu6IU0nM9rwpCOZDWO395GBnXWh co+g== X-Gm-Message-State: ABUngvdjqauE13kpmha1Rb0yh4zUYXGVV9hMDplclfE/6i+ifyAFR7gV3yOpbybzCBmQRrBc0RmNFVyRtBCwCQ== X-Received: by 10.55.184.2 with SMTP id i2mr8359803qkf.196.1477597301927; Thu, 27 Oct 2016 12:41:41 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 Received: by 10.12.146.164 with HTTP; Thu, 27 Oct 2016 12:41:41 -0700 (PDT) In-Reply-To: References: <5a2d4224-3f4e-80f0-3b0b-b2fbbdd59697@gmail.com> <77a4abf0-bc94-0d2e-eebe-d72e2e676255@gmail.com> From: Dave Taht Date: Thu, 27 Oct 2016 12:41:41 -0700 Message-ID: To: David Lang Cc: =?UTF-8?Q?Jonas_M=C3=A5rtensson?= , bloat Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Subject: Re: [Bloat] 22 seconds til bloat on gfiber? X-BeenThere: bloat@lists.bufferbloat.net X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.20 Precedence: list List-Id: General list for discussing Bufferbloat List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 27 Oct 2016 19:41:42 -0000 On Thu, Oct 27, 2016 at 12:30 PM, David Lang wrote: > On Thu, 27 Oct 2016, Dave Taht wrote: > >> I am curious if studies exists of the actual consumption in typical >> 100mbit and above plans, vs 20Mbit, here and worldwide. Again, my >> thesis is, aside from business (and bittorrent) users, your typical >> 250mbit plan would have very close to the same consumption as the >> 100mbit plan. They'd use up 250mbits for a couple hours a month, but >> that's it. >> >> I am increasingly convinced that without a killer application that >> requires it, >> we've hit "peak bandwidth". > > > You sound like my College Professor from the early 90's who said that the > networks were now going to be so fast that there was no way that users wo= uld > need all the available bandwidth, and that it was up to the students in t= he > class to invent new uses :-) > > Then the web happened. Yes, it did, and it drove adoption for a long time. Given the interactivity required for web, however, the demand curve for more bandwidth for it has tapered off. Web page size growth, which looked exponential back 2012 is now linear, as both web sites "tightened up" things, and folks installed adblockers everywhere. I have the data on this somewhere... > any declaration of 'peak bandwidth' is only a temporary state. Well, even then, in the early 90s, we had a good grip on the basic requirem= ents for everything that is now deployed today - video streaming, videoconferencing, etc. Web traffic is now *trivial* compared to that. Sure - there may be a killer app in the future (AR? VR?) but it is hard to predict that! And my overall point is that when you are on one slope of an S-curve, it's hard to see where it will peak - or start again. Take, for example, the over-optimistic fiber build-out that essentially terminated in 2000 - it's taken 16 years to use all that up.... --=20 Dave T=C3=A4ht Let's go make home routers and wifi faster! With better software! http://blog.cerowrt.org