Re: [Bloat] 22 seconds til bloat on gfiber?

[Dave Taht <dave.taht@gmail.com>]

On Thu, Oct 27, 2016 at 7:32 AM, Jonas Mårtensson
<martensson.jonas@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
> On Wed, Oct 26, 2016 at 5:36 PM, Mikael Abrahamsson <swmike@swm.pp.se>
> wrote:
>>
>> On Wed, 26 Oct 2016, Jan Ceuleers wrote:
>>
>>> What I mean is that the OLT optics become very expensive if you need to
>>> support as many lambdas as you have customers. You'd furthermore need an
>>> OLT port for much fewer customers (e.g. 1 port per 64 or 128 customers)
>>> than the thousands you can support on a (shared) GPON port on a single
>>> lambda.
>>
>>
>> That only works if your customers don't use their Internet access very
>> much. If they do, you're in trouble and have to rebuild.
>
>
> Yes, and the question then becomes: How much is "very much"? This can of
> course be analyzed mathematically, which e.g. Google have done here:

When you are on one side of an S curve, it's hard to see where it flattens out.

I've been meaning to research and write a piece called "have we
reached 'Peak Bandwidth'"? for a while now.

My thesis is that what users actually want is short RTTs for
interactive, once basic bandwidth needs are slaked, which starts to
happen once you crack the largest typical load (which these days is 4k
video streaming).

gbit fiber is *way* on the unneeded side of the demand curve for home users.


> http://research.google.com/pubs/pub44935.html

which kind of points out that you need business users to use it all up.

>>
>>
>> In my market, we're now in the access speeds where 100/10 is on the lower
>> end of access, and it's not uncommon for people to have 250, 500 or 1000
>> downstream. If they then actually start using their bw then you'd have to
>> rebuild to either go higher speed for some CPE (complicated and expensive),
>> or rebuild to have smaller splitter domains.

I am curious if studies exists of the actual consumption in typical
100mbit and above plans, vs 20Mbit, here and worldwide. Again, my
thesis is, aside from business (and bittorrent) users, your typical
250mbit plan would have very close to the same consumption as the
100mbit plan. They'd use up 250mbits for a couple hours a month, but
that's it.

I am increasingly convinced that without a killer application that requires it,
we've hit "peak bandwidth".

>
> The standard answer from PON proponents (I'm not one) is to upgrade
> equipment, from GPON to XG-PON or NG-PON2. But upgrading hardware as
> bandwidth demand increases is necessary whatever the technology - what's
> important is the scalability of the solution.
>
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-- 
Dave Täht
Let's go make home routers and wifi faster! With better software!
http://blog.cerowrt.org