From mboxrd@z Thu Jan 1 00:00:00 1970 Return-Path: Received: from mail-qk0-x22d.google.com (mail-qk0-x22d.google.com [IPv6:2607:f8b0:400d:c09::22d]) (using TLSv1.2 with cipher ECDHE-RSA-AES128-GCM-SHA256 (128/128 bits)) (No client certificate requested) by lists.bufferbloat.net (Postfix) with ESMTPS id C748A3B25E for ; Thu, 27 Oct 2016 12:56:29 -0400 (EDT) Received: by mail-qk0-x22d.google.com with SMTP id n189so54364380qke.0 for ; Thu, 27 Oct 2016 09:56:29 -0700 (PDT) DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=gmail.com; s=20120113; h=mime-version:in-reply-to:references:from:date:message-id:subject:to :cc:content-transfer-encoding; bh=1PYu//kM+/DiQDZMMBINICVacV/2xkjvadr3QT/5kKE=; b=D+6sd8tcix4pLjZuT3JhG0dbwsXVlAgf1JopHOLE8yk1Dmk127rz7TdurwHGM7bm1T T8smS6TNyTFihLvFvK3/Vx32kIi7Y4swOARk0tUwsdQot67hBj7EiAENZxBDJV5DR979 50AYbd16RFHexWuLkYCkgd4QjswPx7551Tk9KE7MTO9GYNmMOba6b+fPoAbCzxu4nf5j o9BftbsNzxVYhXKDvIiFisE/p51okRta//AJ/Klv5rvnoPFGYihz+einU4sDVuodEWjN kuRswv7kWLCtQwxNQcYXwQHydQX7qiJ19/pX+yIw5/iddhhcOSCwq08jm0N5oazt5bQ2 +cFA== X-Google-DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=1e100.net; s=20130820; h=x-gm-message-state:mime-version:in-reply-to:references:from:date :message-id:subject:to:cc:content-transfer-encoding; bh=1PYu//kM+/DiQDZMMBINICVacV/2xkjvadr3QT/5kKE=; b=ehzxtPw34r52ZDS9WLUINMIus4l83HPiAvOUOfrmqtQUr/HOmWvDY4bAehIP90rk6H 48pr+X12edH4IbMlZ+or92UEXLDkzJw9uVOt2g5p2Oe6PIXX1SywIQ8c+WW3iPY8F7Sr SDr4rM7h2jAV90wu/RjKFg3Nb5tEgFsYtV/7Bl23iMtmqHLbP8e6mQRZhodctxJAzAwm A++t/R0ecZe3BdQ7XQCbavu7DRd5lFPy3P+igoeRcHkveU0nG7mdEuEEntjkB81PqyqS n0k6Z4Io4lnsyp59cyEZNfOm6UyBEJpF+4uc4LH1NN++UZpuvJ0/QsHdEItucp067FXn odOA== X-Gm-Message-State: ABUngve/WsDVnAq5DdEw7JeNrpTXhTc8LppMCD9cyuvqIrJLNJPZkfnvanKnmJjWojfeV8+tTIBoGXmpSskgiA== X-Received: by 10.55.221.29 with SMTP id n29mr8356608qki.114.1477587389357; Thu, 27 Oct 2016 09:56:29 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 Received: by 10.12.146.164 with HTTP; Thu, 27 Oct 2016 09:56:28 -0700 (PDT) In-Reply-To: References: <5a2d4224-3f4e-80f0-3b0b-b2fbbdd59697@gmail.com> <77a4abf0-bc94-0d2e-eebe-d72e2e676255@gmail.com> From: Dave Taht Date: Thu, 27 Oct 2016 09:56:28 -0700 Message-ID: To: =?UTF-8?Q?Jonas_M=C3=A5rtensson?= Cc: Mikael Abrahamsson , bloat Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Subject: Re: [Bloat] 22 seconds til bloat on gfiber? X-BeenThere: bloat@lists.bufferbloat.net X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.20 Precedence: list List-Id: General list for discussing Bufferbloat List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 27 Oct 2016 16:56:29 -0000 On Thu, Oct 27, 2016 at 7:32 AM, Jonas M=C3=A5rtensson wrote: > > > On Wed, Oct 26, 2016 at 5:36 PM, Mikael Abrahamsson > wrote: >> >> On Wed, 26 Oct 2016, Jan Ceuleers wrote: >> >>> What I mean is that the OLT optics become very expensive if you need to >>> support as many lambdas as you have customers. You'd furthermore need a= n >>> OLT port for much fewer customers (e.g. 1 port per 64 or 128 customers) >>> than the thousands you can support on a (shared) GPON port on a single >>> lambda. >> >> >> That only works if your customers don't use their Internet access very >> much. If they do, you're in trouble and have to rebuild. > > > Yes, and the question then becomes: How much is "very much"? This can of > course be analyzed mathematically, which e.g. Google have done here: When you are on one side of an S curve, it's hard to see where it flattens = out. I've been meaning to research and write a piece called "have we reached 'Peak Bandwidth'"? for a while now. My thesis is that what users actually want is short RTTs for interactive, once basic bandwidth needs are slaked, which starts to happen once you crack the largest typical load (which these days is 4k video streaming). gbit fiber is *way* on the unneeded side of the demand curve for home users= . > http://research.google.com/pubs/pub44935.html which kind of points out that you need business users to use it all up. >> >> >> In my market, we're now in the access speeds where 100/10 is on the lowe= r >> end of access, and it's not uncommon for people to have 250, 500 or 1000 >> downstream. If they then actually start using their bw then you'd have t= o >> rebuild to either go higher speed for some CPE (complicated and expensiv= e), >> or rebuild to have smaller splitter domains. I am curious if studies exists of the actual consumption in typical 100mbit and above plans, vs 20Mbit, here and worldwide. Again, my thesis is, aside from business (and bittorrent) users, your typical 250mbit plan would have very close to the same consumption as the 100mbit plan. They'd use up 250mbits for a couple hours a month, but that's it. I am increasingly convinced that without a killer application that requires= it, we've hit "peak bandwidth". > > The standard answer from PON proponents (I'm not one) is to upgrade > equipment, from GPON to XG-PON or NG-PON2. But upgrading hardware as > bandwidth demand increases is necessary whatever the technology - what's > important is the scalability of the solution. > > _______________________________________________ > Bloat mailing list > Bloat@lists.bufferbloat.net > https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/bloat > --=20 Dave T=C3=A4ht Let's go make home routers and wifi faster! With better software! http://blog.cerowrt.org