From mboxrd@z Thu Jan 1 00:00:00 1970
Return-Path: Len - I admit I made a=
mistake in challenging Little's Law as being based on Poisson processes. I=
t is more general. But it tells you an "average" in its base form, and late=
ncy averages are not useful for end user applications. However, Little's Law does assume =
something that is not actually valid about the kind of distributions seen i=
n the network, and in fact, it is NOT true that networks converge on Poisso=
n arrival times. The key issue is well-described in the sandard analysis of the M/M/1 que=
ue (e.g. https://en.w=
ikipedia.org/wiki/M/M/1_queue) , which is done only for Poisson process=
es, and is also limited to "stable" systems. But networks are never stable =
when fully loaded. They get unstable and those instabilities persist for a =
long time in the network. Instability is at core the underlying *requiremen=
t* of the Internet's usage. So specifically: real networks, even large ones, and certainl=
y the Internet today, are not asymptotic limits of sums of stationary stoch=
astic arrival processes. Each esternal terminal of any real network has a r=
eal user there, running a real application, and the network is a complex gr=
aph. This makes it completely unlike a single queue. Even the links within =
a network carry a relatively small number of application flows. There's no =
ability to apply the Law of Large Numbers to the distributions, because any=
particular path contains only a small number of serialized flows with high=
tly variable rates. Here's an example of what really happens in a real network (I've obse=
rved this in 5 different cities on ATT's cellular network, back when it was=
running Alcatel Lucent HSPA+ gear in those cities). But you can see this on any network where transient overload occurs, c=
reating instability. At 7 AM, the data transmission of =
the network is roughty stable. That's because no links are overloaded withi=
n the network. Little's Law can tell you by observing the delay and through=
put on any path that the average delay in the network is X. Continue sampling delay in t=
he network as the day wears on. At about 10 AM, ping delay starts to soar i=
nto the multiple second range. No packers are lost. The peak ping time is a=
bout 4000 milliseconds - 4 seconds in most of the networks. This is in down=
town, no radio errors are reported, no link errors. So it is all queueing delay. Now what Little's law doesn't tell you much about =
average delay, because clearly *some* subpiece of the network is fully satu=
rated. But what is interesting here is what is happening and where. You can=
't tell what is saturated, and in fact the entire network is quite unstable=
, because the peak is constantly varying and you don't know where the throu=
ghput is. All the packets are now arriving 4 seconds or so later. Why is the situaton not=
worse than 4 seconds? Well, there are multiple things going on: 1) TCP may be doing a lo=
t of retransmissions (non-Poisson at all, not random either. The arrival pr=
ocess is entirely deterministic in each source, based on the retransmission=
timeout) or it may not be. 2) Users are pissed off, because they clicked on a web page, =
and got nothing back. They retry on their screen, or they try another site.=
Meanwhile, the underlying TCP connection remains there, pumping the networ=
k full of more packets on that old path, which is still backed up with pack=
ets that haven't been delivered that are sitting in queues. The real arriva=
l process is not Poisson at all, its a deterministic, repeated retrsnsmissi=
on plus a new attempt to connect to a new site. =
3) When the users get a web page back eve=
ntually, it is filled with names of other pieces needed to display that web=
page, which causes some number (often as many as 100) new pages to be fetc=
hed, ALL at the same time. Certainly not a stochastic process that will jus=
t obey the law of large numbers. All of these things are the result of initial instabilit=
y, causing queues to build up. So what is the state of the system? is it stable? is it st=
ochastic? Is it the sum of enough stochastic stable flows to average out to=
Poisson? The =
answer is clearly NO. Control theory (not queuing theory) suggests that thi=
s system is completely uncontrolled and unstable. So if the system is in this state, what=
does Little's Lemma tell us? What is the meaning of that hightly variable =
4 second delay on ping packets, in terms of average utilizaton of the netwo=
rk? We don't e=
ven know what all the users really might need, if the system hadn't become =
unstable, because some users have given up, and others are trying even hard=
er, and new users are arriving. What we do know, because ATT (at my suggestion) reconfigu=
red their system after blaming Apple Computer company for "bugs" in the ori=
ginal iPhone in public, is that simply *dropping* packets sitting in queues=
more than a couple milliseconds MADE THE USERS HAPPY. Apparently the requi=
red capacity was there all along! =
p>=0A So I conclude that the 4 second delay was the lar=
gest delay users could barely tolerate before deciding the network was DOWN=
and going away. And that the backup was the accumulation of useless packet=
s sitting in queues because none of the end systems were receiving congesti=
on signals (which for the Internet stack begins with packet dropping). I should say that=
most operators, and especially ATT in this case, do not measure end-to-end=
latency. Instead they use Little's Lemma to query routers for their curren=
t throughput in bits per second, and calculate latency as if Little's Lemma=
applied. This results in reports to management that literally say:
The network is= not dropping packets, utilization is near 100% on many of our switches and= routers.
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And = management responds, Hooray! Because utilization of 100% of their hardware = is their investors' metric of maximizing profits. The hardware they are ope= rating is fully utilized. No waste! And users are happy because no packets = have been dropped!
=0A=0A
Hmm... what's wrong with this picture? I can see why Donovan, CTO, wou= ld accuse Apple of lousy software that was ruining iPhone user experience!&= nbsp; His network was operating without ANY problems.
=0ASo it must be Apple!
=0A=0A
Well, no. The entire problem, as we saw when ATT just changed = to shorten egress queues and drop packets when the egress queues overflowed= , was that ATT's network was amplifying instability, not at the link level,= but at the network level.
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And queueing theory can help with that, but *intro queueing th= eory* cannot.
=0A=0A
= And a big part of that problem is the pervasive belief that, at the network= boundary, *Poisson arrival* is a reasonable model for use in all cases.
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&= nbsp;
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On Frida=
y, July 9, 2021 6:05am, "Luca Muscariello" <muscariello@ieee.org> sai=
d:
= =0ADavid,=0A=0A___= ____________________________________________I totally apprec= iate your attention to when and when not analytical modeling works. L= et me clarify a few things from your note.=0AFirst, Little's law= (also known as Little=E2=80=99s lemma or, as I use in my book, Little=E2= =80=99s result) does not assume Poisson arrivals - it is good for=0Aany arrival process and any service process and is an equalit= y between time averages. It states that the time average of the numbe= r in a system (for a sample path w) is equal to the average arrival rate to the system multi= plied by the time-averaged time in the system for that sample path. T= his is often written as NTimeAvg =3D=CE=BB=C2=B7= TTimeAvg . Moreover, if the system is also ergodic, then the time average equ= als the ensemble average and we often write it as N =CC=84 =3D =CE=BB T =CC=84 . = In any case, this requires neither Poisson arrivals nor exponential s= ervice times. =0AQueueing theorists often do study the case of= Poisson arrivals. True, it makes the analysis easier, yet there is a= better reason it is often used, and that is because the sum of a large num= ber of independent stationary renewal processes approaches a Poisson proces= s. So nature often gives us Poisson arrivals.=0ABes= t,=0ALen=0A=0A=0A=0A=0A=0A=0AOn Jul 8, 2= 021, at 12:38 PM, David P. Reed <dpreed@deepplum.com> wrote:=0A
=0A= =0A=0AI will tell you flat out that the arrival time distribution assumpti= on made by Little's Lemma that allows "estimation of queue depth" is totall= y unreasonable on ANY Internet in practice.=0A&n= bsp;
=0AThe assumption is a Poisson Arrival Process. In reality, tra= ffic arrivals in real internet applications are extremely far from Poisson,= and, of course, using TCP windowing, become highly intercorrelated with cr= ossing traffic that shares the same queue.=0A&nb= sp;
=0ASo, as I've tried to tell many, many net-heads (people who ig= nore applications layer behavior, like the people that think latency doesn'= t matter to end users, only throughput), end-to-end packet arrival times on= a practical network are incredibly far from Poisson - and they are more li= ke fractal probability distributions, very irregular at all scales of time.==0A=0A
So, the idea that iperf can = estimate queue depth by Little's Lemma by just measuring saturation of capa= city of a path is bogus.The less Poisson, the worse the estimate gets, by a= huge factor.=0A=0A
=0A
Where does the Poisson assumption come from? Well,= like many theorems, it is the simplest tractable closed form solution - it= creates a simplified view, by being a "single-parameter" distribution (the= parameter is called lambda for a Poisson distribution). And the anal= ysis of a simple queue with poisson arrival distribution and a static, fixe= d service time is the first interesting Queueing Theory example in most tex= tbooks. It is suggestive of an interesting phenomenon, but it does NOT char= acterize any real system.=0A=0A
It'= s the queueing theory equivalent of "First, we assume a spherical cow...". = in doing an example in a freshman physics class.=0A=0A
Unfortunately, most networking engineers understand nei= ther queuing theory nor application networking usage in interactive applica= tions. Which makes them arrogant. They assume all distributions are poisson= !=0A=0A
= =0A=0A
=0A= =0A_______________________________________________> Hello,=0A
>
> I am interested to hear w= ish lists for network testing features. We make test
> equipment, s= upporting lots
> of wifi stations and a distributed architecture, w= ith built-in udp, tcp, ipv6,
> http, ... protocols,
> and o= pen to creating/improving some of our automated tests.
>
>= I know Dave has some test scripts already, so I'm not necessarily looking = to
> reimplement that,
> but more fishing for other/new ide= as.
>
> Thanks,
> Ben
>
> On 7/2/= 21 4:28 PM, Bob McMahon wrote:
> > I think we need the language&= nbsp;of math here. It seems like the network
> power metric, introd= uced by Kleinrock and Jaffe in the late 70s, is something
> us= eful.
> > Effective end/end queue depths per Little's law also s= eems useful. Both are
> available in iperf 2 from a test perspectiv= e. Repurposing test techniques to
> actual
> > traffic c= ould be useful. Hence the question around what exact telemetry
&g= t; is useful to apps making socket write() and read() calls.
> >=
> > Bob
> >
> > On Fri, Jul 2, 2021 at 10= :07 AM Dave Taht <dave.taht@gmail.com
> <mailto:dave.taht@gmail.com>> wrote:
&= gt; >
> > In terms of trying to find "Quality" I have tried t= o encourage folk to
> > both read "zen and the art of motorcycle= maintenance"[0], and Deming's
> > work on "total quality manage= ment".
> >
> > My own slice at this network, computer= and lifestyle "issue" is aiming
> > for "imperceptible latency"= in all things. [1]. There's a lot of
> > fallout from that in t= erms of not just addressing queuing delay, but
> > caching, pref= etching, and learning more about what a user really needs
> > (a= s opposed to wants) to know via intelligent agents.
> >
>= ; > [0] If you want to get depressed, read Pirsig's successor to "zen...= ",
> > lila, which is in part about what happens when an enginee= r hits an
> > insoluble problem.
> > [1] https= ://www.internetsociety.org/events/latency2013/
> <htt= ps://www.internetsociety.org/events/latency2013/>
> >
> >
> >
> > On Thu, Jul 1, 2021 at 6:16 PM Da= vid P. Reed <dp= reed@deepplum.com
> <mailto:dpreed@deepplum.com>> wrote:
> &= gt; >
> > > Well, nice that the folks doing the conference= are willing to
> consider that quality of user experience ha= s little to do with signalling rate at
> the
> > physica= l layer or throughput of FTP transfers.
> > >
> > = >
> > >
> > > But honestly, the fact that th= ey call the problem "network quality"
> suggests that they REALLY, = REALLY don't understand the Internet isn't the hardware
> or
&= gt; > the routers or even the routing algorithms *to its users*.
&g= t; > >
> > >
> > >
> > > By= ignoring the diversity of applications now and in the future,
> an= d the fact that we DON'T KNOW what will be coming up, this conference will<= br />> likely fall
> > into the usual trap that net-heads fal= l into - optimizing for some
> imaginary reality that doesn't exist= , and in fact will probably never be what
> users
> > ac= tually will do given the chance.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > I saw this issue in 1976 in the group= developing the original
> Internet protocols - a desire to put *in= to the network* special tricks to optimize
> ASR33
> > l= ogins to remote computers from terminal concentrators (aka remote
>= login), bulk file transfers between file systems on different time-sharing=
> systems, and
> > "sessions" (virtual circuits) that r= equired logins. And then trying to
> exploit underlying "multicast"= by building it into the IP layer, because someone
> > thought t= hat TV broadcast would be the dominant application.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Frankly, to think = of "quality" as something that can be "provided"
> by "the network"= misses the entire point of "end-to-end argument in system
> design= ".
> > Quality is not a property defined or created by The Netwo= rk. If you want
> to talk about Quality, you need to talk about use= rs - all the users at all times,
> > now and into the future, an= d that's something you can't do if you don't
> bother to include cu= rrent and future users talking about what they might expect
> to
> > experience that they don't experience.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > There was much fig= hting back in 1976 that basically involved
> "network experts" sayi= ng that the network was the place to "solve" such issues as
> quali= ty,
> > so applications could avoid having to solve such issues.=
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >= > What some of us managed to do was to argue that you can't "solve"
> such issues. All you can do is provide a framework that enables diff= erent uses to
> > *cooperate* in some way.
> > >> > >
> > >
> > > Which is why the= Internet drops packets rather than queueing them,
> and why diffse= rv cannot work.
> > >
> > > (I know the latter = is conftroversial, but at the moment, ALL of
> diffserv attempts to= talk about end-to-end applicaiton specific metrics, but
> never, e= ver
> > explains what the diffserv control points actually do w.= r.t. what the IP
> layer can actually control. So it is meaningless= - another violation of the
> > so-called end-to-end principle).=
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >= > Networks are about getting packets from here to there, multiplexing> the underlying resources. That's it. Quality is a whole different = thing. Quality
> can
> > be improved by end-to-end appro= aches, if the underlying network provides
> some kind of thing that= actually creates a way for end-to-end applications to
> > affec= t queueing and routing decisions, and more importantly getting
> "t= elemetry" from the network regarding what is actually going on with the oth= er
> > end-to-end users sharing the infrastructure.
> &g= t; >
> > >
> > >
> > > This co= nference won't talk about it this way. So don't waste your
> time.<= br />> > >
> > >
> > >
> > = >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> = > > On Wednesday, June 30, 2021 8:12pm, "Dave Taht"
> <dave.taht@gmail.com= a> <mailto:dave= .taht@gmail.com>> said:
> > >
> > > &= gt; The program committee members are *amazing*. Perhaps, finally,
>= ; we can
> > > > move the bar for the internet's quality m= etrics past endless,
> blind
> > > > repetitions o= f speedtest.
> > > >
> > > > For complete= details, please see:
> > > > https://www.iab= .org/activities/workshops/network-quality/
> <h= ttps://www.iab.org/activities/workshops/network-quality/>
> = > > >
> > > > Submissions Due: Monday 2nd August = 2021, midnight AOE
> (Anywhere On Earth)
> > > > I= nvitations Issued by: Monday 16th August 2021
> > > >
> > > > Workshop Date: This will be a virtual workshop, spread= over
> three days:
> > > >
> > > &g= t; 1400-1800 UTC Tue 14th September 2021
> > > > 1400-1800= UTC Wed 15th September 2021
> > > > 1400-1800 UTC Thu 16t= h September 2021
> > > >
> > > > Workshop= co-chairs: Wes Hardaker, Evgeny Khorov, Omer Shapira
> > > &= gt;
> > > > The Program Committee members:
> > = > >
> > > > Jari Arkko, Olivier Bonaventure, Vint Ce= rf, Stuart Cheshire,
> Sam
> > > > Crowford, Nick = Feamster, Jim Gettys, Toke Hoiland-Jorgensen,
> Geoff
> >= ; > > Huston, Cullen Jennings, Katarzyna Kosek-Szott, Mirja
>= Kuehlewind,
> > > > Jason Livingood, Matt Mathias, Randal= l Meyer, Kathleen
> Nichols,
> > > > Christoph Paa= sch, Tommy Pauly, Greg White, Keith Winstein.
> > > >
> > > > Send Submissions to: network-quality-workshop-pc@iab.org=
> <mailto:network-quality-workshop-pc@iab.org>.
&= gt; > > >
> > > > Position papers from academia, = industry, the open source
> community and
> > > > = others that focus on measurements, experiences, observations
> and<= br />> > > > advice for the future are welcome. Papers that ref= lect
> experience
> > > > based on deployed servic= es are especially welcome. The
> organizers
> > > >= ; understand that specific actions taken by operators are
> unlikel= y to be
> > > > discussed in detail, so papers discussing = general categories
> of
> > > > actions and issues= without naming specific technologies,
> products, or
> >= ; > > other players in the ecosystem are expected. Papers should not<= br />> focus
> > > > on specific protocol solutions.
> > > >
> > > > The workshop will be by inv= itation only. Those wishing to
> attend
> > > > sh= ould submit a position paper to the address above; it may
> take th= e
> > > > form of an Internet-Draft.
> > > &= gt;
> > > > All inputs submitted and considered relevant w= ill be published
> on the
> > > > workshop website= . The organisers will decide whom to invite
> based on
> &g= t; > > the submissions received. Sessions will be organized according=
> to
> > > > content, and not every accepted subm= ission or invited attendee
> will
> > > > have an = opportunity to present as the intent is to foster
> discussion
> > > > and not simply to have a sequence of presentations.
> > > >
> > > > Position papers from those = not planning to attend the virtual
> sessions
> > > &= gt; themselves are also encouraged. A workshop report will be
> pub= lished
> > > > afterwards.
> > > >
&= gt; > > > Overview:
> > > >
> > > &= gt; "We believe that one of the major factors behind this lack of
>= progress
> > > > is the popular perception that throughpu= t is the often sole
> measure of
> > > > the quali= ty of Internet connectivity. With such narrow focus,
> people
= > > > > don=E2=80=99t consider questions such as:
> >= ; > >
> > > > What is the latency under typical work= ing conditions?
> > > > How reliable is the connectivity a= cross longer time periods?
> > > > Does the network allow = the use of a broad range of protocols?
> > > > What servic= es can be run by clients of the network?
> > > > What kind= of IPv4, NAT or IPv6 connectivity is offered, and
> are there fire= walls?
> > > > What security mechanisms are available for = local services,
> such as DNS?
> > > > To what deg= ree are the privacy, confidentiality, integrity
> and
> >= ; > > authenticity of user communications guarded?
> > >= ; >
> > > > Improving these aspects of network quality = will likely depend
> on
> > > > measurement and ex= posing metrics to all involved parties,
> including to
> &g= t; > > end users in a meaningful way. Such measurements and exposure<= br />> of the
> > > > right metrics will allow service = providers and network
> operators to
> > > > focus= on the aspects that impacts the users=E2=80=99 experience
> most a= nd at
> > > > the same time empowers users to choose the I= nternet service
> that will
> > > > give them the = best experience."
> > > >
> > > >
&g= t; > > > --
> > > > Latest Podcast:
> >= ; > >
> https://www.linkedin.com= /feed/update/urn:li:activity:6791014284936785920/
> <https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:= 6791014284936785920/>
> > > >
> > > &= gt; Dave T=C3=A4ht CTO, TekLibre, LLC
> > > > ____________= ___________________________________
> > > > Cerowrt-devel = mailing list
> > > > Cerowrt-devel@lists.bufferbloat.net=
> <mailto:Cerowrt-devel@lists.bufferbloat.net>
> &= gt; > > https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/cerowrt-devel<= /a>
> <https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/cerowrt-de= vel>
> > > >
> >
> >
>= ; >
> > --
> > Latest Podcast:
> > https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activi= ty:6791014284936785920/
> <http= s://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6791014284936785920/&g= t;
> >
> > Dave T=C3=A4ht CTO, TekLibre, LLC
>= ; > _______________________________________________
> > Make-= wifi-fast mailing list
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> >
> >
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> >>
>
> --
> Ben Greear <greearb@candelatech.com>= ;
> Candela Technologies Inc http://www.candelatech.com
>
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