From mboxrd@z Thu Jan 1 00:00:00 1970 Return-Path: Received: from mail-ej1-x631.google.com (mail-ej1-x631.google.com [IPv6:2a00:1450:4864:20::631]) (using TLSv1.2 with cipher ECDHE-RSA-AES128-GCM-SHA256 (128/128 bits)) (No client certificate requested) by lists.bufferbloat.net (Postfix) with ESMTPS id E760C3CB41 for ; Tue, 10 Aug 2021 18:54:24 -0400 (EDT) Received: by mail-ej1-x631.google.com with SMTP id yk17so230165ejb.11 for ; Tue, 10 Aug 2021 15:54:24 -0700 (PDT) DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=broadcom.com; s=google; h=mime-version:references:in-reply-to:from:date:message-id:subject:to :cc; bh=faST15SgOdQ3l0IUwbbbQ9FoRA4aO7XIYG9w5mr0q7k=; b=SBdUQQjhhWChwgIZqOfigMXc6P/d5gwTXVOeC7AM890niNgi4x2BWFkvBSKMhVBDwL KF1LvI37E0l0vMRK5zwViBKrayepA5ozFcAZfYcLYC7QTnlJMmRzb+4K/U8mxi5Fogil X1rXWU2tnrpGBj+2NXp0afw8Axih/qi7UqS+4= X-Google-DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=1e100.net; s=20161025; h=x-gm-message-state:mime-version:references:in-reply-to:from:date :message-id:subject:to:cc; bh=faST15SgOdQ3l0IUwbbbQ9FoRA4aO7XIYG9w5mr0q7k=; b=jVIl3IHmkDoXJ1vtvD+RDPZGzcwgYGNjmgHEVjb0U+BBcoxvVY8NfnO6jV05GfcY5C GhJ7RhyLWjidA0DRXeiZX21Rev0YIFXbR78xpf4dhNoRLDKUPeNMfxRUyG8opAQoaJN9 ECVGexvZjpDjCwZsdTkB3UcmyuBgtii1jFzMjDaPePgRcdsqqWIsozggls7sDclVO9aC vasa/MK14vxLPtqACy4NKYS2hYxCSinxjGAIX5TCdeFi1mfQgYEPKgmfJzKN/maq28HO qKHPqf+WiYTPoWM2OFWyJNALwhib07kNiQ4XJ5T+A0AVAmkVYJnwWnKQy9m/2w2R+gGz 71Qg== X-Gm-Message-State: AOAM533G5ukaHuAjKTg0zXG16K9Hp+DOlNq2kaxV+kfSXuiAG8mhR1u1 1uiEliIJivQ6lin6cFvhgMpw6tkqcQ7Q44I03vQMPnLVrxH+DJ8TAEADwd3uNg29E8l5mLUMyC2 zuvgQe1RGaRpHzaW/Au7cvarqIyeRoBrFHKiA3xDR X-Google-Smtp-Source: ABdhPJz4IBUEVrMIaA8t10NbOckbL+eXtD5DBgxW8oH1CJblDS6y71OQnawO3TJbeu/OIVHLTBALXHkfb1kM4wNgETc= X-Received: by 2002:a17:907:7848:: with SMTP id lb8mr767501ejc.494.1628636063589; Tue, 10 Aug 2021 15:54:23 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 References: <202108101410.17AEAR4w075939@gndrsh.dnsmgr.net> <5AF5551E2A7041168E7071FDA0F6B8EC@SRA6> <03CA2CDA3EC5415DA229F835BE039994@SRA6> <92A399A23FEE4C52ADFC1734E6840756@SRA6> In-Reply-To: From: Bob McMahon Date: Tue, 10 Aug 2021 15:54:12 -0700 Message-ID: Subject: Re: [Starlink] Anhyone have a spare couple a hundred million ... Elon may need to start a go-fund-me page! To: David Lang Cc: Jeremy Austin , dickroy@alum.mit.edu, Cake List , Make-Wifi-fast , starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net, codel , cerowrt-devel , bloat Content-Type: multipart/signed; protocol="application/pkcs7-signature"; micalg=sha-256; boundary="00000000000011f6c505c93c62b5" X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 10 Aug 2021 22:54:25 -0000 --00000000000011f6c505c93c62b5 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="0000000000000a400e05c93c62f5" --0000000000000a400e05c93c62f5 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable sorry about that The below was written two decades ago and we're still fiddling around with fraudband. Hey, today in 2021, comcast will sell a select few 2 Gb/s symmetric over a fiber strand using a juniper switch, leased of course, designed in 2011. Talk about not keeping up with modern mfg of ASICs, and associated energy efficiencies. In the meantime we continue on destroying the planet and Musk wants our offspring to live on Mars, while Bezos thinks he's creating a new industry in space tourism. To the writeup about why we need to rethink broadband. Eli Noam is also quite prescient written in 1994 (http://www.columbia.edu/dlc/wp/citi/citinoam11.html ) Rather than realistic, I think you are instead being 'reasonable.' There is a big difference. I am reminded of a quote: "A reasonable man adapts himself to suit his environment. An unreasonable man persists in attempting to adapt his environment to suit himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man." --George Bernard Shaw Most CEO's, excluding start-ups, fall into the reasonable man camp (though they were unreasonable once). Make the most of your current surroundings while expending the minimal effort. It's good business sense for short term results, but ignores the long term. It dictates a forward strategy of incrementalism. It ignores the cumulative costs of the incremental improvements and the diminishing returns of each successive increment. Therefore each new increment has to be spaced farther out in time, which is not desirable from a long-term business point of view. That business case deteriorates longer term, but is easier to see shorter term. Short-term thinking, driven by Wall Street, seems to be the only mode corporate America can operate in. This incrementalism mentality with 18 month upgrade cycles is fine for consumer gadgets where the consumer knows they will have an accounting loss on the gadget from the day they buy it. The purchaser of the gadget never expects to make money on it. That's why they are called "consumers." That's one of the only environments where 18 month upgrade cycles can persist. Network infrastructure deployment is an entirely different food chain. Under the current models, the purchaser of equipment (e.g. a service provider) is not a consumer. It is a business that has to make a net profit off selling services enabled by the equipment. This defies 18 month upgrade cycles of "consumer" goods. A couple thousand bucks per subscriber takes a long time for a network operator to recover, when you rely on a couple percent of that, in NET income not revenue, per month. It is not conducive to Wall Street driven companies. Thus, the next step has to be a 10-year step. Yet, consumers spend thousands every couple years on consumables they will lose money on (essentially a 100% loss). Many even finance these purchases at the ridiculous rates of credit cards, adding further to their accounting loss. The value of these goods and services to the consumer is justified/rationalized in non-accounting-based ways. In that light, customer-owned networks are not such a stretch. In fact they would be an asset that can be written off for tax purposes. The main difference is it isn't in your physical possession, in your home, so you can't show people your new gadget. Not directly anyway. The "realistic" view of network infrastructure deployment (as opposed to the reasonable view) is that today's access network infrastructure is the wrong platform to grow from, and the wrong business model to operate under. It can't grow like a consumer product (CD players, DVD players, PC's, etc) because it is not a consumer product and the consumer does not have the freedom of choice in content and applications providers (which was an important part of the growth of those consumer markets). Piling new money into the old infrastructure and its operating model failure is not a realistic approach, because of diminishing returns. It was never intended to provide real broadband connectivity, to each user, and the operating costs are way too high. Besides, real broadband undermines the legacy businesses of the monopoly owners. A 100x increase in the base platform is needed in order to have a platform that accommodates future growth in services and applications. That way it doesn't require yet another infrastructure incremental upgrade each step of the way. This connectivity platform also must be decoupled from the content and services. Access network growth cannot progress in small increments or on 18 month upgrade cycles. It can't be small increments because these increments enable nothing new and add little if any tangible value. They simply make the present-day excuses for applications less annoying to use. This approach will never make it through the next increment, and is arguably the chasm where we sit today. It can't be 18 month cycles because the equipment's accounting life is much longer than that. It will be neither paid off nor written off after 18 months. The equipment for 100Mbps FTTH is very nearly the same cost as the equipment used for 256kbps DSL service. It is cheaper than that DSL equipment was 2 years ago, but they are both moving targets. What costs too much money is the deployment labor in the US (but not in many Asian countries), the permits, the right-of-way, and the hassles thereof. Those aren't getting cheaper with time. Within the next year or two, it will cost more to wait than to deploy now. The equipment cost decreases will be less than the construction cost increases per year. The business case gets harder by waiting. Yes, it requires taking risk that boils down to believing the "build it and they will come" mantra. Contrary to popular belief, it is not a chicken-or-egg problem. The connectivity has to be there first, before the application development resources will be allocated. Imagine a start-up trying to get funding for an application that requires 100Mbps peak network connections. They'd be laughed out of the VC's office. Same holds for trying to get resources to develop the same application within a company's R&D budget. No support for its development because there's no platform or marketplace to sell it into. There are plenty of startups working on FTTH equipment and infrastructure products though. Would any of today's PC applications have had a snowball's chance in hell of getting funding if they were pitched back in the days when the PC platform was based on CPU speeds in the tens of MHz, 2Meg of RAM, a 50Meg hard drive, and a 16 bit ISA bus? No. Few saw any reason we'd ever need more than that. After the next 10x improvement, people said the same thing: Why do we need more? Only after about 100x improvement did people finally stop saying that, though I've noticed it has returned of-late. The cost declines were a vital part of this too, along with the performance increases. The lack of profitability in today's consumer data services, and the low subscription percentages even thought there is fairly wide availability does not mean that the "build it and they will come" mantra has failed for broadband. There is no broadband, so the mantra has not even been tested yet. Build it, and operate it under an open access model, with content and connectivity as separate entities, and they will come. Without that second condition, I have serious doubts about the possibility for successful PC-like growth in broadband, even if it is built. On Tue, Aug 10, 2021 at 1:44 PM David Lang wrote: > the biggest problem starlink faces is shipping enough devices (and > launching the > satellites to support them), not demand. There are enough people > interested in > paying full price that if the broadband subsities did not exist, it > wouldn't > reduce the demand noticably. > > but if the feds are handing out money, SpaceX is foolish not to apply for > it. > > David Lang > > On Tue, 10 Aug 2021, Jeremy Austin wrote: > > > Date: Tue, 10 Aug 2021 12:33:11 -0800 > > From: Jeremy Austin > > To: dickroy@alum.mit.edu > > Cc: Cake List , > > Make-Wifi-fast , > > Bob McMahon , > starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net, > > codel , > > cerowrt-devel , > > bloat > > Subject: Re: [Starlink] Anhyone have a spare couple a hundred million > ... Elon > > may need to start a go-fund-me page! > > > > A 5.7% reduction in funded locations for StarLink is=E2=80=A6 not drama= tic. If > the > > project falls on that basis, they've got bigger problems. Much of that > > discrepancy falls squarely on the shoulders of the FCC and incumbent IS= Ps > > filing form 477, as well as the RDOF auction being held before improvin= g > > mapping =E2=80=94 as Rosenworcel pointed out. The state of broadband ma= pping is > > still dire. > > > > If I felt like the reallocation of funds would be 100% guaranteed to > > benefit the end Internet user=E2=80=A6 I'd cheer too. > > > > If. > > > > JHA > > > > On Tue, Aug 10, 2021 at 12:16 PM Dick Roy wrote: > > > >> You may find this of some relevance! > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2021/07/ajit-pai-apparently-mismanage= d-9-billion-fund-new-fcc-boss-starts-cleanup/ > >> > >> > >> > >> Cheers (or whatever!), > >> > >> > >> > >> RR > >> > >> > >> _______________________________________________ > >> Starlink mailing list > >> Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net > >> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink > >> > > > > > >_______________________________________________ > Starlink mailing list > Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net > https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink > --=20 This electronic communication and the information and any files transmitted= =20 with it, or attached to it, are confidential and are intended solely for=20 the use of the individual or entity to whom it is addressed and may contain= =20 information that is confidential, legally privileged, protected by privacy= =20 laws, or otherwise restricted from disclosure to anyone else. If you are=20 not the intended recipient or the person responsible for delivering the=20 e-mail to the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any use,=20 copying, distributing, dissemination, forwarding, printing, or copying of= =20 this e-mail is strictly prohibited. If you received this e-mail in error,= =20 please return the e-mail to the sender, delete it from your computer, and= =20 destroy any printed copy of it. --0000000000000a400e05c93c62f5 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
<diatribe on> sorry about that

The below was wr= itten two decades ago and we're still fiddling around with fraudband. H= ey, today in 2021, comcast will sell a select few 2 Gb/s symmetric over a f= iber strand using a juniper switch, leased of course, designed in 2011. Tal= k about not keeping up with modern mfg of ASICs, and associated energy effi= ciencies. In the meantime=C2=A0we continue=C2=A0on destroying the planet an= d Musk wants our offspring to live on Mars, while Bezos thinks he's cre= ating a new industry in space tourism. To the writeup about why we need to = rethink broadband. Eli Noam is also quite prescient written in 1994 (http://www= .columbia.edu/dlc/wp/citi/citinoam11.html )

Rather than realistic,= I think you are instead being 'reasonable.' There is a big differe= nce. I am reminded of a quote:

&quo= t;A reasonable man adapts himself to suit his environment. An unreasonable = man persists in attempting to adapt his environment to suit himself. Theref= ore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man."
--George=C2=A0Bernard=C2=A0Sha= w

Most CEO's, excluding start-u= ps, fall into the reasonable man camp (though they were unreasonable once).= Make the most of your current surroundings while expending the minimal eff= ort. It's good business sense for short term results, but ignores the l= ong term. It dictates a forward strategy of incrementalism. It ignores the = cumulative costs of the incremental improvements and the diminishing return= s of each successive increment. Therefore each new increment has to be spac= ed farther out in time, which is not desirable from a long-term business po= int of view. That business case deteriorates longer term, but is easier to = see shorter term. Short-term thinking, driven by Wall Street, seems to be t= he only mode corporate America can operate in.

This incrementalism mentality with 18 month upgrade cycles is f= ine for consumer gadgets where the consumer knows they will have an account= ing loss on the gadget from the day they buy it. The purchaser of the gadge= t never expects to make money on it. That's why they are called "c= onsumers." That's one of the only environments where 18 month upgr= ade cycles can persist.

Network inf= rastructure deployment is an entirely different food chain. Under the curre= nt models, the purchaser of equipment (e.g. a service provider) is not a co= nsumer. It is a business that has to make a net profit off selling services= enabled by the equipment. This defies 18 month upgrade cycles of "con= sumer" goods. A couple thousand bucks per subscriber takes a long time= for a network operator to recover, when you rely on a couple percent of th= at, in NET income not revenue, per month. It is not conducive to Wall Stree= t driven companies. Thus, the next step has to be a 10-year step.
Yet, consumers spend thousands every couple = years on consumables they will lose money on (essentially a 100% loss). Man= y even finance these purchases at the ridiculous rates of credit cards, add= ing further to their accounting loss. The value of these goods and services= to the consumer is justified/rationalized in non-accounting-based ways. In= that light, customer-owned networks are not such a stretch. In fact they w= ould be an asset that can be written off for tax purposes. The main differe= nce is it isn't in your physical possession, in your home, so you can&#= 39;t show people your new gadget. Not directly anyway.

The "realistic" view of network infrastructur= e deployment (as opposed to the reasonable view) is that today's access= network infrastructure is the wrong platform to grow from, and the wrong b= usiness model to operate under. It can't grow like a consumer product (= CD players, DVD players, PC's, etc) because it is not a consumer produc= t and the consumer does not have the freedom of choice in content and appli= cations providers (which was an important part of the growth of those consu= mer markets).

Piling new money into= the old infrastructure and its operating model failure is not a realistic = approach, because of diminishing returns. It was never intended to provide = real broadband connectivity, to each user, and the operating costs are way = too high. Besides, real broadband undermines the legacy businesses of the m= onopoly owners.

A 100x increase in = the base platform is needed in order to have a platform that accommodates f= uture growth in services and applications. That way it doesn't require = yet another infrastructure incremental upgrade each step of the way. This c= onnectivity platform also must be decoupled from the content and services.<= /span>

Access network growth cannot progre= ss in small increments or on 18 month upgrade cycles. It can't be small= increments because these increments enable nothing new and add little if a= ny tangible value. They simply make the present-day excuses for application= s less annoying to use. This approach will never make it through the next i= ncrement, and is arguably the chasm where we sit today. It can't be 18 = month cycles because the equipment's accounting life is much longer tha= n that. It will be neither paid off nor written off after 18 months.=

The equipment for 100Mbps FTTH is very ne= arly the same cost as the equipment used for 256kbps DSL service. It is che= aper than that DSL equipment was 2 years ago, but they are both moving targ= ets. What costs too much money is the deployment labor in the US (but not i= n many Asian countries), the permits, the right-of-way, and the hassles the= reof. Those aren't getting cheaper with time. Within the next year or t= wo, it will cost more to wait than to deploy now. The equipment cost decrea= ses will be less than the construction cost increases per year. The busines= s case gets harder by waiting. Yes, it requires taking risk that boils down= to believing the "build it and they will come" mantra.
Contrary to popular belief, it is not a chic= ken-or-egg problem. The connectivity has to be there first, before the appl= ication development resources will be allocated. Imagine a start-up trying = to get funding for an application that requires 100Mbps peak network connec= tions. They'd be laughed out of the VC's office. Same holds for try= ing to get resources to develop the same application within a company's= R&D budget. No support for its development because there's no plat= form or marketplace to sell it into. There are plenty of startups working o= n FTTH equipment and infrastructure products though.
Would any of today's PC applications have had a snowb= all's chance in hell of getting funding if they were pitched back in th= e days when the PC platform was based on CPU speeds in the tens of MHz, 2Me= g of RAM, a 50Meg hard drive, and a 16 bit ISA bus? No. Few saw any reason = we'd ever need more than that. After the next 10x improvement, people s= aid the same thing: Why do we need more? Only after about 100x improvement = did people finally stop saying that, though I've noticed it has returne= d of-late. The cost declines were a vital part of this too, along with the = performance increases.

The lack of = profitability in today's consumer data services, and the low subscripti= on percentages even thought there is fairly wide availability does not mean= that the "build it and they will come" mantra has failed for bro= adband. There is no broadband, so the mantra has not even been tested yet. = Build it, and operate it under an open access model, with content and conne= ctivity as separate entities, and they will come. Without that second condi= tion, I have serious doubts about the possibility for successful PC-like gr= owth in broadband, even if it is built.

On Tue, Aug 10, 2021 at 1= :44 PM David Lang <david@lang.hm>= ; wrote:
the big= gest problem starlink faces is shipping enough devices (and launching the <= br> satellites to support them), not demand. There are enough people interested= in
paying full price that if the broadband subsities did not exist, it wouldn&= #39;t
reduce the demand noticably.

but if the feds are handing out money, SpaceX is foolish not to apply for i= t.

David Lang

On Tue, 10 Aug 2021, Jeremy Austin wrote:

> Date: Tue, 10 Aug 2021 12:33:11 -0800
> From: Jeremy Austin <jeremy@aterlo.com>
> To: dickroy@= alum.mit.edu
> Cc: Cake List <cake@lists.bufferbloat.net>,
>=C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0Make-Wifi-fast <make-wifi-fast@lists.bufferbloat.= net>,
>=C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0Bob McMahon <bob.mcmahon@broadcom.com>, starlink@lists.buffer= bloat.net,
>=C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0codel <codel@lists.bufferbloat.net>,
>=C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0cerowrt-devel <cerowrt-devel@lists.bufferbloat.net= >,
>=C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0bloat <bloat@lists.bufferbloat.net>
> Subject: Re: [Starlink] Anhyone have a spare couple a hundred million = ... Elon
>=C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 may need to start a go-fund-me page!
>
> A 5.7% reduction in funded locations for StarLink is=E2=80=A6 not dram= atic. If the
> project falls on that basis, they've got bigger problems. Much of = that
> discrepancy falls squarely on the shoulders of the FCC and incumbent I= SPs
> filing form 477, as well as the RDOF auction being held before improvi= ng
> mapping =E2=80=94 as Rosenworcel pointed out. The state of broadband m= apping is
> still dire.
>
> If I felt like the reallocation of funds would be 100% guaranteed to > benefit the end Internet user=E2=80=A6 I'd cheer too.
>
> If.
>
> JHA
>
> On Tue, Aug 10, 2021 at 12:16 PM Dick Roy <dickroy@alum.mit.edu> wrote:
>
>> You may find this of some relevance!
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2021/07/ajit= -pai-apparently-mismanaged-9-billion-fund-new-fcc-boss-starts-cleanup/<= br> >>
>>
>>
>> Cheers (or whatever!),
>>
>>
>>
>> RR
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> Starlink mailing list
>> Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
>> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starl= ink
>>
>
>
>_______________________________________________
Starlink mailing list
Starlin= k@lists.bufferbloat.net
https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink

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If you received this e-mail in error, please return the = e-mail to the sender, delete it from your computer, and destroy any printed= copy of it. --0000000000000a400e05c93c62f5-- --00000000000011f6c505c93c62b5 Content-Type: application/pkcs7-signature; name="smime.p7s" Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64 Content-Disposition: attachment; filename="smime.p7s" Content-Description: S/MIME Cryptographic Signature MIIQagYJKoZIhvcNAQcCoIIQWzCCEFcCAQExDzANBglghkgBZQMEAgEFADALBgkqhkiG9w0BBwGg gg3BMIIFDTCCA/WgAwIBAgIQeEqpED+lv77edQixNJMdADANBgkqhkiG9w0BAQsFADBMMSAwHgYD VQQLExdHbG9iYWxTaWduIFJvb3QgQ0EgLSBSMzETMBEGA1UEChMKR2xvYmFsU2lnbjETMBEGA1UE AxMKR2xvYmFsU2lnbjAeFw0yMDA5MTYwMDAwMDBaFw0yODA5MTYwMDAwMDBaMFsxCzAJBgNVBAYT AkJFMRkwFwYDVQQKExBHbG9iYWxTaWduIG52LXNhMTEwLwYDVQQDEyhHbG9iYWxTaWduIEdDQyBS MyBQZXJzb25hbFNpZ24gMiBDQSAyMDIwMIIBIjANBgkqhkiG9w0BAQEFAAOCAQ8AMIIBCgKCAQEA vbCmXCcsbZ/a0fRIQMBxp4gJnnyeneFYpEtNydrZZ+GeKSMdHiDgXD1UnRSIudKo+moQ6YlCOu4t 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