From mboxrd@z Thu Jan 1 00:00:00 1970 Return-Path: Received: from mail-pj1-x1032.google.com (mail-pj1-x1032.google.com [IPv6:2607:f8b0:4864:20::1032]) (using TLSv1.2 with cipher ECDHE-RSA-AES128-GCM-SHA256 (128/128 bits)) (No client certificate requested) by lists.bufferbloat.net (Postfix) with ESMTPS id 796B03B29E for ; Sat, 15 Oct 2022 09:07:27 -0400 (EDT) Received: by mail-pj1-x1032.google.com with SMTP id d7-20020a17090a2a4700b0020d268b1f02so10314760pjg.1 for ; Sat, 15 Oct 2022 06:07:27 -0700 (PDT) DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=gmail.com; s=20210112; h=to:subject:message-id:date:from:in-reply-to:references:mime-version :from:to:cc:subject:date:message-id:reply-to; bh=iAqEDWD7fCgtK8PzKuzv3h+hdKoSNsnMuQWgMw+8y1g=; b=I1uq2KeFdKcRqZQb7AbMGVjkFhev6eemgzlW7SrbqEKdKlJNanFlilN1jue501eNS0 bGpiMwdNuTanmzl4EtAvd0AQao1vM/qBjAus/KPbXJZuMaSjxu0AViedCOkEaevSvrT9 tv1iicLjSjR9SMBjpLUNRYif7Vy/PYWGZp09GWJDAon4uPsvw4zeVsSzXOHxVAJ3mgTv TqJI5huMxA7vtuTelweAiveBVVZVsQqyO7WBwr8Sf04ZxAtdEfFeP/wi9giS680rwYnL aKniJryE7x6ZYEcc7fFnQ7wx4ME8ea1bYqkpEUfYSDRnTT7827tY4wDbvl+zJV4zIYkQ 3M4Q== X-Google-DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=1e100.net; s=20210112; h=to:subject:message-id:date:from:in-reply-to:references:mime-version :x-gm-message-state:from:to:cc:subject:date:message-id:reply-to; bh=iAqEDWD7fCgtK8PzKuzv3h+hdKoSNsnMuQWgMw+8y1g=; b=vdabu6VVo3ukWNy3q5QLQ6+KrGzaLaUyBJLKZikXHR3NYw+SiP4tfY4BTAXY/RLrCc 0pSIGidloJFV9aMxxdTvRXJblal7zWaWZdPvowzegQStj9dFoH+SuRfha4+vG58xnNsi S69FIDoLekm9xcUZrV1QvOUoN4ASgLVyKa5gtOVmrJOEtjDTcMeJT9CV5aQen9c0mV8i 7pB4vJLESJ6+RsgGfQ31TnvHfVSy1+j7GUfOWv/DHW68pfLi9WUl4XXZZ3R5d+/CqLfM 05gKgZjPF+rs35EmObHkEk37HeEYOiA0BgahFlMfz17tnhi6I2OKVYko3AwsQASW7Hq5 zx4g== X-Gm-Message-State: ACrzQf0gV136sEya63mj40XJzcoq91hdqsaNUAWScHwn3JvJ/NQZmGnl Zo5wjG0YuH/jd+46fHU8Kpij6FPoVjkqVrNnl8T+Tf+w X-Google-Smtp-Source: AMsMyM54tvJjSreAzmYcvUGz3S2f5XVKJ33igOOIzPulGoXUvIECqn5B3Hkd56huFW15w12u9HhjzoIPeQu9hWvfT/I= X-Received: by 2002:a17:90b:2241:b0:20d:b273:26af with SMTP id hk1-20020a17090b224100b0020db27326afmr3236260pjb.245.1665839245907; Sat, 15 Oct 2022 06:07:25 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 References: In-Reply-To: From: Herbert Wolverson Date: Sat, 15 Oct 2022 08:07:15 -0500 Message-ID: To: LibreQoS@lists.bufferbloat.net Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="000000000000815c3c05eb126c25" Subject: Re: [LibreQoS] starry had such good press X-BeenThere: libreqos@lists.bufferbloat.net X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.20 Precedence: list List-Id: List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 15 Oct 2022 13:07:27 -0000 --000000000000815c3c05eb126c25 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable I wish I could say I was surprised. The current round of federal funding was crafted to avoid repeating the mistakes from previous funding attempts. So while lots of money is offered, you have to put up a portion of matching funds (and the auction price) as a bond - only released once you can demonstrate that you provide the promised service. That's overall a good thing, but too many companies took the "shoot for the moon" approach of taking way too many areas when interest rates were low - and banks were lining up to finance bonds. A lot of companies over-borrowed, often at adjustable rates - so now that rates are high, the bond-finance payments are coming home to roost. It makes sense when I look back over my time in the industry (since 1998). QWest famously complied with a huge grant by connecting a single building in Columbia (I live in Columbia, MO) and single buildings in a couple of neighboring towns - and never building out to the rest of town. QWest over-borrowed, and suddenly are part of Level 3 - in an "asset only" purchase that left the debt behind. A while later, CenturyLink buys out Level 3 (in a panic move, they couldn't fulfill a DoD contract without their backbone) and goes on a fiber build-out spree (flush with grant money). They built out a massive network across town, all hung on city utility poles. Turns out, they never paid the usage fee and were just found guilty of breach of contract - owing the city millions. It also turns out that they did the exact same thing all over the place. Boom - they are now Lumen and Quantum Fiber, in an asset-only purchase. That didn't quite work, so the fiber is off to another company now. (In the meantime, our city built an entire fiber system going just about everywhere, and can't turn it on because the legislature banned "chattanooga" style build-outs) The upside is that the companies who took a responsible approach are doing well. A local ISP (they were 5 guys in a room when I started in town, just after I moved here from England) is slowly building out fiber one subdivision at a time, using fixed-rate (20 year!) mortgages to buy the infrastructure and only going for grant money for the areas they were going to build anyway. They are thriving, and their service is great. So it can be done. It goes in cycles. Big funding rounds tend to lead to "tulip fever" style overbuild, and then it settles down. It keeps the lawyers busy. On Fri, Oct 14, 2022 at 10:50 PM Dave Taht via LibreQoS < libreqos@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote: > but, apparently, a burn rate that could not be sustained anymore with > interest rates going up. > > > https://www.fiercetelecom.com/broadband/starry-abandons-rdof-bids-pushing= -auction-default-tally-above-500m > > -- > This song goes out to all the folk that thought Stadia would work: > > https://www.linkedin.com/posts/dtaht_the-mushroom-song-activity-698136666= 5607352320-FXtz > Dave T=C3=A4ht CEO, TekLibre, LLC > _______________________________________________ > LibreQoS mailing list > LibreQoS@lists.bufferbloat.net > https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/libreqos > --000000000000815c3c05eb126c25 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
I wish I could say I was surprised. The current round= of federal funding was crafted to avoid repeating
the mistakes f= rom previous funding attempts. So while lots of money is offered, you have = to put up
a portion of matching funds (and the auction price) as = a bond - only released once you can demonstrate
that you provide = the promised service. That's overall a good thing, but too many compani= es took the
"shoot for the moon" approach of taking way= too many areas when interest rates were low - and banks
were lin= ing up to finance bonds. A lot of companies over-borrowed, often at adjusta= ble rates - so now
that rates are high, the bond-finance payments= are coming home to roost.

It makes sense when I l= ook back over my time in the industry (since 1998). QWest famously
complied with a huge grant by connecting a single building in Columbia (I= live in Columbia, MO) and
single buildings in a couple of neighb= oring towns - and never building out to the rest of town. QWest
<= div>over-borrowed, and suddenly are part of Level 3 - in an "asset onl= y" purchase that left the debt behind.

A = while later, CenturyLink buys out Level 3 (in a panic move, they couldn'= ;t fulfill a DoD contract
without their backbone) and goes on a f= iber build-out spree (flush with grant money). They
built out= a massive network across town, all hung on city utility poles. Turns out, = they never
paid the usage fee and were just found guilty of breac= h of contract - owing the city millions.
It also turns out that t= hey did the exact same thing all over the place. Boom - they are now
<= div>Lumen and Quantum Fiber, in an asset-only purchase. That didn't qui= te work, so the
fiber is off to another company now. (In the mean= time, our city built an entire fiber system
going just about ever= ywhere, and can't turn it on because the legislature banned "chatt= anooga"
style build-outs)

The u= pside is that the companies who took a responsible approach are doing well.= A local
ISP (they were 5 guys in a room when I started in town, = just after I moved here from England)
is slowly building out fibe= r one subdivision at a time, using fixed-rate (20 year!) mortgages to buy t= he
infrastructure and only going for grant money for the areas th= ey were going to build anyway.
They are thriving, and their servi= ce is great. So it can be done.

It goes in cycles.= Big funding rounds tend to lead to "tulip fever" style overbuild= , and then
it settles down. It keeps the lawyers busy.
<= /div>
O= n Fri, Oct 14, 2022 at 10:50 PM Dave Taht via LibreQoS <libreqos@lists.bufferbloat.net> wr= ote:
but, appare= ntly, a burn rate that could not be sustained anymore with
interest rates going up.

https://www.fiercetelecom.com/broadband/starry-abandons-rdof-bids-pus= hing-auction-default-tally-above-500m

--
This song goes out to all the folk that thought Stadia would work:
https://www.= linkedin.com/posts/dtaht_the-mushroom-song-activity-6981366665607352320-FXt= z
Dave T=C3=A4ht CEO, TekLibre, LLC
_______________________________________________
LibreQoS mailing list
LibreQo= S@lists.bufferbloat.net
https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/libreqos
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