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([80.187.115.217]) by mail.gmx.net (mrgmx005 [212.227.17.190]) with ESMTPSA (Nemesis) id 1MXXuH-1rnx1G0pyh-00Yx8k; Tue, 19 Dec 2023 20:06:05 +0100 Date: Tue, 19 Dec 2023 20:06:02 +0100 From: Sebastian Moeller To: =?ISO-8859-1?Q?Network_Neutrality_is_back!_Let=B4s_mak?= =?ISO-8859-1?Q?e_the_technical_aspects_heard_this_time!?= , Dave Taht via Nnagain User-Agent: K-9 Mail for Android In-Reply-To: References: <2105444706.19331958.1702991136151@ltx1-app53721.prod.linkedin.com> Message-ID: <30EA40A5-5E4C-4730-B19C-581A1FF629C6@gmx.de> MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary=----TCO7K3CSV57BO6N8Z0VF968CHJW3GN Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-Provags-ID: V03:K1:2Aa2XG0PEwn9aVyDbMoWd62MXy/RA5aJCvlj+WixXBxfNGpXAbL a8t9RcJfNll5gNYIt/Dax30NA+xwpOBCwSEE7h+UP5SD4Srn0ZfGhymYsqXdDfAeOG8z44C P8ZpuueiVR3DSk0P/n+GhkNGPZ8Emx6Ugl7M7PuaMbfbYsoAmvpyr8+fpo5ICXuD7s5UAG7 UXzP+Z1KY8GUQcZjj/1lQ== X-Spam-Flag: NO UI-OutboundReport: notjunk:1;M01:P0:mszB9hlms7M=;b2FoUBksOTCNRLUyDXrzu1D64d3 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Re: [NNagain] Fwd: The 12 Lies of Telecoms Xmas X-BeenThere: nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.20 Precedence: list List-Id: =?utf-8?q?Network_Neutrality_is_back!_Let=C2=B4s_make_the_technical_aspects_heard_this_time!?= List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 19 Dec 2023 19:06:08 -0000 ------TCO7K3CSV57BO6N8Z0VF968CHJW3GN Content-Type: text/plain; charset=utf-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Thanks for sharing=2E That had my 'old man shouting at clouds' vibe, I like= it=2E=2E=2E=2E On 19 December 2023 16:01:09 CET, Dave Taht via Nnagain wrote: >---------- Forwarded message --------- >From: Dean Bubley via LinkedIn >Date: Tue, Dec 19, 2023 at 5:05=E2=80=AFAM >Subject: The 12 Lies of Telecoms Xmas >To: Dave Taht > > >During 2023, I've lost patience with some of the more outrageous statemen= ts=E2=80=A6 >=CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F = =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD= =8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F >=CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F = =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD= =8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F >=CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F = =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD= =8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F >=CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F = =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD= =8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F >=CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F = =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD= =8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F >=CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F =CD=8F >[image: LinkedIn] > >[image: Dave Taht] > > >Newsletter on LinkedIn >[image: Dean Bubley's Tech Musings] > >Dean Bubley's Tech Musings > >Analysis and arguments on wireless, telecoms, 5G & the wider futurism >landscape by @disruptivedean > >[image: Author image] > >Dean Bubley > >Tech Industry Analyst & Futurist @ DISRUPTIVE ANALYSIS | Influential >advisor & speaker with 25yrs+ in Telecoms Strategy, 5G / 6G / Wi-Fi, >Spectrum, Policy > >See what others are saying about this topic: Open on Linkedin > >[image: Newsletter cover image] > >The 12 Lies of Telecoms Xmas > > >During 2023, I've lost patience with some of the more outrageous statemen= ts >I've been seeing in my industry=2E There's a growing number of bald-faced >lies, and I've started calling them out publicly=2E > >Yes, I know that marketing and lobbying requires a measure of hype, >exaggeration and glass-half-full predictions and estimations=2E There are >areas where statistics or semantics can be skewed, but may contain a grai= n >of fact=2E > >Some problems lie with simplifications or lack of understanding made by >non-experts=2E While politicians are generalists and can sometimes be >excused, the wide use by the industry of *economists* to calculate suppos= ed >costs or benefits of networks is often deeply flawed=2E > >Worse, I see many examples where purveyors of dodgy stats and >talking-points cite (and amplify) each other's nonsense=2E You know the s= ort >of thing - a laughable analysis of "GDP uplift" from a technology gets >blended with questionable forecast traffic volumes, then multiplied by >other flawed numbers to imply huge extra CAPEX or spectrum needs=2E > >Nobody stops to ask users, application developers or enterprises how >networks in the real world actually work or get deployed, or whether all >the clever AI, automation and virtualisation we're also hyping might redu= ce >the costs=2E > >Few people really look at headline numbers or arguments to see what is >cherrypicked, misrepresented, show correlation not causation, or just don= 't >pass a simple "smell test" for being realistic=2E > >Anyway=2E=2E=2E here's a dozen of the most egregious falsehoods in teleco= ms=2E >There's plenty more, but this seemed an appropriately festive number to >list=2E I'll add some links in the comments as well=2E Here's to a more h= onest >and truthful 2024! >Lie 1: Autonomous vehicles & robotic surgery need 5G > >Let's start with an easy one that long been debunked, although I still he= ar >it repeated by some in telecoms or policymaking circles, as well as some >self-appointed futurists who should know better=2E > >No, AVs don't need 5G, although they may use it for certain functions if >it's available and inexpensive=2E All the claims of TB of data created pe= r >hour are irrelevant - 99=2E9% never leaves the vehicle=2E Most of the >processing & AI inferencing is done onboard=2E And cloud-driven 5G AVs wo= uld >need perfect coverage and capacity, which doesn't exist - good luck in a >tunnel, a car-park or a road in a remote region=2E Or on a highway in a l= ane >sandwiched between two trucks=2E > >5G is somewhat more important for remote-driven vehicles where a human >needs streaming video of the surroundings=2E > >As for robotic surgery - well for a start, most hospital operating theatr= es >are Faraday cages deep inside buildings, so they'd need dedicated wireles= s >systems=2E And the remote surgeon - and the robot - are likeliest to use >fixed broadband and a fibre LAN connection, not wireless=2E > >You remember the video of the banana undergoing "5G surgery"? That was a >proven lie, with a full analysis by The Verge=2E It didn't use 5G=2E >Lie 2: There is an "investment gap" for broadband networks > >2023 has been a year of preposterous lies from lobbyists, some telcos, >industry groups and even government agencies, trying to concoct arguments >for new regulations on cloud or content companies funding networks - or >perhaps more government subsidies=2E A common refrain is that there is a >"gap" in funding that needs to be filled by someone else=2E > >The problems are that the majority of investments required for fixed and >mobile broadband deployments are either: > > - > > Covered by market forces and normal commercial investment plans, helpe= d > by existing government funding programmes=2E > - > > Exacerbated by arbitrary or poorly-defined "requirements" > - > > Not driven by growth in traffic volumes > - > > Based on old or inaccurate metrics and statistics of current network > status & investment schemes > >My friends at organisations such as Stratix consulting have done a good j= ob >at debunking some Europe-specific claims=2E (Link in coments)=2E Let's ha= ve >some more informed & truthful debate in 2024=2E > >Sidenote: some investments needed won't be done by the normal telcos >anyway=2E Indoor wireless owners, local FWA, fibre altnets, private netwo= rks, >satellite systems, neutral host & infraco / towerco CAPEX weren't even in >the discussion - if there *is* a new pot of cash, it's another lie to say >that legacy telcos are the only or best recipients=2E >Lie 3: 5G networks are (or will be) "ubiquitous" > >One of the common mistaken assumptions among policymakers and some others >in telecoms is that 5G networks - and their headline capabilities like >gigabit speeds and millisecond latencies - will be ubiquitous=2E > >Clearly, that's not the case, and was doubtful from the start of 5G=2E Ru= ral >areas, small communities, indoor coverage & capacity, full connectivity o= n >railways & trains, industrial zones and others often lack public network >coverage, even from 4G=2E Even where there's a 5G logo lit up on a phone, >that may just be a thin layer of sub-1GHz spectrum or dynamic-shared 4G/5= G=2E > >To be fair, this is perhaps more an example of ignorance rather than lyin= g >in many cases, but it should have been clear to even the least tech-aware >person by now that the concept is itself proven untrue=2E > >It's also very consequential - application and device developers are the >ones that have been lied to, as much as end-users=2E Imagine spending mon= ey >on developing AR/VR game or headset, expecting low-latency 5G everywhere = it >will be used=2E This type of hype has victims=2E > >It's also quite amusing to see the latest ITU IMT2030 (6G) recommendation= s >specify that ubiquity only refers to a defined coverage area, not >nationwide: "*The term 'ubiquitous' is related to the considered target >coverage area and is not intended to relate to an entire region or countr= y*"=2E >Well, that's one way to avoid lying in future - redefine the word itself = to >mean something else that's easier an more convenient=2E >Lie 4: Mobile data traffic is growing "exponentially" > >Exponential is a mathematical term referring to an accelerating growth >rate=2E In almost all cases, mobile data traffic growth is now slowing=2E > >Most predictions suggest it settling down to maybe 20% year-on-year in >mature markets=2E And even that is mostly driven by MNO-driven decisions = like >offering FWA fixed wireless services (which have 20x the consumption of >normal smartphone use), or inappropriate pushing of unlimited plans or >bundled / zero-rated video=2E > >I still see telco policy people deliberately overestimating traffic >forecasts, either to make arguments for more spectrum, or when lying abou= t >so-called "large traffic generators" or risible "fair share" schemes=2E >Lie 5: Network traffic is "generated" by content / cloud companies > >I've previously written a full LinkedIn post calling out the term "large >traffic generator" as a clear lie=2E It's been one of the most-read that = I've >published this year, which presumably implies *I* generated a lot of data >traffic personally=2E > >The reality is that Internet *users* generate traffic=2E They request mov= ies, >play games, scroll timelines, download software updates, and read article= s=2E >The fact I watch a GB of video traffic from a popular site rather than a >niche one is irrelevant - although the larger one is more likely to have >its own CDN=2E > >There's a small amount of "push" data such as autoplay follow-on videos, >but adverts are usually tolerated as an alternative to fees=2E It's not a= big >deal - and in any case, network costs are linked to *peak* traffic levels= , >not total volumes=2E >Lie 6: "Voice" is the same as "Telephony" > >There are 1000s of forms of voice communication=2E Phone calls are just o= ne >highly-specified application, with specific behavioural, technical and >regulatory characteristics=2E Telephony is > >Push-to-talk, in-game chat, karaoke, audioconferences, voice assistants, >podcasts, audio captioning, Alexa "drop-ins" and many others are not >telephony=2E > >Generally, telcos don't do "voice" in general=2E They only do telephony, = plus >a few extra bits like voicemail=2E A few have their own voice home assist= ants=2E > >(Historical sidenote: audio streaming using phone networks has been aroun= d >since the 1880s=2E If you're a telco complaining about "OTT" media conten= t, >you're 150 years late)=2E >Lie 7: All Wi-Fi use on smartphones is "offload" > >The term "offload" really involves Wi-Fi traffic that would otherwise hav= e >gone over cellular networks, but an automated systems pushes to Wi-Fi >instead=2E It excludes data that the user (or the OS) deliberately select= s >Wi-Fi for=2E > >If I watch a YouTube video on my sofa on my phone via Wi-Fi, that's not >offload=2E That's just me using my home broadband=2E > >Maybe only 5% of smartphone Wi-Fi data is genuine offload=2E And even tha= t >could translate to a smaller amount over cellular, because both user and >app-developer choices often mean extra "elasticity" - higher resolution o= r >frame-rates, extra usage because it feels free/unmetered and so on=2E >Lie 8: Interoperability is always beneficial > >Interoperability for infrastructure can be very useful - we all benefit >from devices that work with wireless or fixed broadband networks, and are >tested and certified to be compatible with each other=2E > >But interoperability for applications and services is much more mixed=2E = As >long as users can "multi-home" and have several different calling, >messaging, social or gaming platforms, it's not necessary to have >interoperability=2E > >Yes, there can be competition concerns, but that doesn't imply a need to >regulate for a lowest-common denominator set of features, with a wide arr= ay >of unintended consequences=2E Interop should be on-demand (especially if >customers explicitly ask for it), not assumed to be an ideal scenario and >mandated by regulation=2E > >Yes, I'm thinking of the EU DMA's stupid rules on messaging interop, but >also a more general argument about all communications apps & services, as >well as fields like AR/VR/metaverse=2E There's still a role for proprieta= ry >network technologies and architectures in some cases too - openness is >great, but it's wrong to say it should be universal=2E >Lie 9: QoS or performance can be guaranteed "End to End" > >Almost every time you see the term "end to end", it's a lie, especially i= n >reference to network quality or performance=2E > >In reality, nobody controls *all* the components of a network or >application path, outside very niche and specifically-engineered >situations=2E At best, they can oversee and prioritise activity between t= wo >arbitrary points in the middle=2E > >Think through a videoconference session=2E It involves at least two netwo= rks, >plus interconnections=2E Multiple devices, with multiple components like >processors and memory=2E A cloud platform and maybe a CDN and 3rd-party >elements=2E Maybe a last-metre connection via Wi-Fi or Bluetooth or a USB >cable=2E Maybe one user is deep in-building or in a moving vehicle=2E > >End-to-end QoS can be created if there's one network, IT or OT manager in >charge of a local system=2E It can be offered on one fibre connection and= a >few boxes, or perhaps across one boundary=2E But truly end-to-end? Nope= =2E >Lie 10: "Digital" tech is new, cool & all that matters > >Yes, I have a bee in my bonnet about the word "digital"=2E I cringe at >phrases like "digital transformation", or "digital infrastructure"=2E It'= s >like going back to the 1980s and hearing "information superhighway" or >"multimedia"=2E > >We've had digital communications since Morse and the telegraph in the >1840s=2E Digital computers since the 1940s=2E Digital phone switches sinc= e the >1980s=2E The WWW since the 1990s=2E > >Digital is old=2E > >Don't get me wrong, it's still useful=2E (Obviously)=2E But so is fire an= d the >wheel=2E > >What irks me is that much of the coolest stuff in tech today isn't digita= l >- it's quantum, or neuromorphic, or biological, materials-based, analogue >and many other domains of innovation that don't depend on 1's and 0's=2E > >The new & cool stuff is mostly *Post-Digital*=2E >Lie 11: Mobile enables huge CO2 savings > >There are many claims that use of mobile (or 5G) leads to huge savings in >carbon footprint - fewer flights because of videoconferences, wireless >traffic controls reducing congestion, connected solar panels and batterie= s, >and so on=2E > >Most of this is a massive exercise in double, or 10x-counting=2E If I do = a >videoconference with a client, there's at least 2 access networks, >interconnects / long-haul fibre, two end-devices, two screens, two camera= s, >lots of chips, a cloud platform, a video app or browsers, mics etc=2E > >Being generous, one of the access networks (probably fixed+WiFi rather th= an >mobile anyway) maybe accounts for 5% of the total savings=2E And only a >handful of trips are replaced with video, in any case - most video sessio= ns >are incremental, or replace a lower-energy voice-only call=2E >Lie 12: "The data and KPIs prove XYZ" > >One of my big campaigns this year has been about the need for good metric= s, >not easy metrics=2E I've written several posts about it, and an entire re= port >for my friends at STL Partners=2E > >In telecoms we get huge volumes of reported data - average network speeds= , >5G coverage, spectrum prices in $/MHz-pop, homes passed, minutes of use, = GB >of data traffic, numbers of messages sent, and myriads more=2E > >The problem is that many of these data points are used because they are >easy to collect, easy to regulate & have a lot of historical comparisons= =2E >But they're often useless, or sometimes worse-than-useless=2E > >They get cherrypicked, used out of context, used to "prove" the need for >policies that they don't actually support, and don't represent the realit= y >on the ground=2E > >Take mobile coverage, usually cited as a % of residential population that >can get a signal outdoors=2E Yet most will agree that many 5G uses are fo= r >non-residential applications and locations (eg farms, ports, industrial >zones), or indoors=2E And coverage doesn't mean performance or "full 5G" >capabilities=2E > >Then there are all the many tiers of lies about network data traffic, use= d >to "prove" the costs of network CAPEX, energy use, need for taxing >cloud/content companies, arguing against net neutrality and so on=2E >Aggregate traffic is largely irrelevant - in reality costs are driven by >initial build / coverage area (even at zero traffic) and sometimes peak >rates=2E Energy usage isn't linked to traffic mostly, either=2E > >We all know the phrase "lies, damned lies, and statistics"=2E So let's tr= y to >collect and use better stats in future=2E >Conclusion > >Yes, this is a bit of a rant=2E And yes, a lot of people will object to m= e >calling them liars=2E But let's be clear, most of those I'm referring to = have >jobs to do, that sometimes need "messaging" to be massaged=2E > >And I haven't even got onto the dodgy term "OTT", mentioned RCS (no it's >not SMS2=2E0), laughed at cryptocurrency-powered "DePIN", called out >exaggerations about the role of satellite direct-to-device, or ridiculed >the criticism thrown at shared spectrum, CBRS or private networks=2E > >So if you recognise yourself in this, tell the real telco Pinocchios - th= e >lawyers, lobbyists, marketeers and headline-writers - that you're not >willing to peddle untruths or half-truths in future=2E Don't let them put >your nose out of joint, or make it grow longer=2E > >Join the conversation > > >Know someone who might be interested in this newsletter? Share it with >them=2E >[image: Share this series on LinkedIn] > >[image: >Share this series on Facebook] > >[image: >Share this series on Twitter] > >This email was intended for Dave Taht (@dtaht:matrix=2Eorg - Truly speedi= ng >up the Net, one smart ISP at a time) >Learn why we included this=2E > >You are receiving LinkedIn notification emails=2E Others can see that you= are >a subscriber=2E >Unsubscribe > > =C2=B7 Help > >[image: LinkedIn] > >=C2=A9 2023 LinkedIn Corporation, 1=E2=80=8C000 West Maude Avenue, Sunnyv= ale, CA >94085=2E LinkedIn >and the LinkedIn logo are registered trademarks of LinkedIn=2E > > >--=20 >40 years of net history, a couple songs: >https://www=2Eyoutube=2Ecom/watch?v=3DD9RGX6QFm5E >Dave T=C3=A4ht CSO, LibreQos --=20 Sent from my Android device with K-9 Mail=2E Please excuse my brevity=2E ------TCO7K3CSV57BO6N8Z0VF968CHJW3GN Content-Type: text/html; charset=utf-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Thanks for sharing=2E That had m= y 'old man shouting at clouds' vibe, I like it=2E=2E=2E=2E


On 19 December 2023 16:01:09 CET,= Dave Taht via Nnagain <nnagain@lists=2Ebufferbloat=2Enet> wrote:


---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Dean Bubley via LinkedIn <ne= wsletters-noreply@linkedin=2Ecom>
Date: Tue, Dec 19, 2023 = at 5:05=E2=80=AFAM
Subject: The 12 Lies of Telecoms Xmas
To: Dave Tah= t <dave=2Etaht@gmail=2Ecom>


<= div dir=3D"ltr" style=3D"margin:0px;width:100%;background-color:#f3f2f0;pad= ding:0px;padding-top:8px;font-family:-apple-system,system-ui,BlinkMacSystem= Font,'Segoe UI',Roboto,'Helvetica Neue','Fira Sans',Ubuntu,Oxygen,'Oxygen S= ans',Cantarell,'Droid Sans','Apple Color Emoji','Segoe UI Emoji','Segoe UI = Emoji','Segoe UI Symbol','Lucida Grande',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif">
Durin= g 2023, I've lost patience with some of the more outrageous statements=E2= =80=A6
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3D"LinkedIn"
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3D"Author Tech= Industry Analyst & Futurist @ DISRUPTIVE ANALYSIS | Influential adviso= r & speaker with 25yrs+ in Telecoms Strategy, 5G / 6G / Wi-Fi, Spectrum= , Policy
Dean Bubley
See what others = are saying about this topic: Open on Linkedin
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3D"Newslet=

The 12 Lies o= f Telecoms Xmas

Dur= ing 2023, I've lost patience with some of the more outrageous statements I'= ve been seeing in my industry=2E There's a growing number of bald-faced lie= s, and I've started calling them out publicly=2E

Yes, I kn= ow that marketing and lobbying requires a measure of hype, exaggeration and= glass-half-full predictions and estimations=2E There are areas where stati= stics or semantics can be skewed, but may contain a grain of fact=2E

Some problems lie with simplifications or lack of understanding = made by non-experts=2E While politicians are generalists and can sometimes = be excused, the wide use by the industry of economists to calculate supposed costs or benefits of networks is oft= en deeply flawed=2E

Worse, I see many examples where pu= rveyors of dodgy stats and talking-points cite (and amplify) each other's n= onsense=2E You know the sort of thing - a laughable analysis of "GDP uplift= " from a technology gets blended with questionable forecast traffic volumes= , then multiplied by other flawed numbers to imply huge extra CAPEX or spec= trum needs=2E

Nobody stops to ask users, application deve= lopers or enterprises how networks in the real world actually work or get d= eployed, or whether all the clever AI, automation and virtualisation we're = also hyping might reduce the costs=2E

Few people really lo= ok at headline numbers or arguments to see what is cherrypicked, misreprese= nted, show correlation not causation, or just don't pass a simple "smell te= st" for being realistic=2E

Anyway=2E=2E=2E here's a dozen = of the most egregious falsehoods in telecoms=2E There's plenty more, but th= is seemed an appropriately festive number to list=2E I'll add some links in= the comments as well=2E Here's to a more honest and truthful 2024!

Lie 1: Autonomous vehicles & robotic surgery need 5G<= /h3>

Let's start with an easy one that long been debunked, alt= hough I still hear it repeated by some in telecoms or policymaking circles,= as well as some self-appointed futurists who should know better=2E

No, AVs don't need 5G, although they may use it for certain funct= ions if it's available and inexpensive=2E All the claims of TB of data crea= ted per hour are irrelevant - 99=2E9% never leaves the vehicle=2E Most of t= he processing & AI inferencing is done onboard=2E And cloud-driven 5G A= Vs would need perfect coverage and capacity, which doesn't exist - good luc= k in a tunnel, a car-park or a road in a remote region=2E Or on a highway i= n a lane sandwiched between two trucks=2E

5G is somewhat m= ore important for remote-driven vehicles where a human needs streaming vide= o of the surroundings=2E

As for robotic surgery - well for= a start, most hospital operating theatres are Faraday cages deep inside bu= ildings, so they'd need dedicated wireless systems=2E And the remote surgeo= n - and the robot - are likeliest to use fixed broadband and a fibre LAN co= nnection, not wireless=2E

You remember the video of the b= anana undergoing "5G surgery"? That was a proven lie, with a full analysis = by The Verge=2E It didn't use 5G=2E

Lie 2: There i= s an "investment gap" for broadband networks

2023 has bee= n a year of preposterous lies from lobbyists, some telcos, industry groups = and even government agencies, trying to concoct arguments for new regulatio= ns on cloud or content companies funding networks - or perhaps more governm= ent subsidies=2E A common refrain is that there is a "gap" in funding that = needs to be filled by someone else=2E

The problems are tha= t the majority of investments required for fixed and mobile broadband deplo= yments are either:

  • Covered by market forces and normal commercial investm= ent plans, helped by existing government funding programmes=2E

  • Exacerbated by arbitrary or poorly-defi= ned "requirements"

  • Not drive= n by growth in traffic volumes

  • Based on old or inaccurate metrics and statistics of current network sta= tus & investment schemes

My friends at organ= isations such as St= ratix consulting have done a good job at debunking some Europe-specific= claims=2E (Link in coments)=2E Let's have some more informed & truthfu= l debate in 2024=2E

Sidenote: some investments needed won'= t be done by the normal telcos anyway=2E Indoor wireless owners, local FWA,= fibre altnets, private networks, satellite systems, neutral host & inf= raco / towerco CAPEX weren't even in the discussion - if there is a new pot of cash, it's another lie to say that= legacy telcos are the only or best recipients=2E

= Lie 3: 5G networks are (or will be) "ubiquitous"

One of t= he common mistaken assumptions among policymakers and some others in teleco= ms is that 5G networks - and their headline capabilities like gigabit speed= s and millisecond latencies - will be ubiquitous=2E

Clear= ly, that's not the case, and was doubtful from the start of 5G=2E Rural are= as, small communities, indoor coverage & capacity, full connectivity on= railways & trains, industrial zones and others often lack public netwo= rk coverage, even from 4G=2E Even where there's a 5G logo lit up on a phone= , that may just be a thin layer of sub-1GHz spectrum or dynamic-shared 4G/5= G=2E

To be fair, this is perhaps more an example of ignor= ance rather than lying in many cases, but it should have been clear to even= the least tech-aware person by now that the concept is itself proven untru= e=2E

It's also very consequential - application and device= developers are the ones that have been lied to, as much as end-users=2E Im= agine spending money on developing AR/VR game or headset, expecting low-lat= ency 5G everywhere it will be used=2E This type of hype has victims=2E

<= p style=3D"margin:0;font-weight:400;margin-top:0=2E8em;font-size:1em;line-h= eight:1=2E5">It's also quite amusing to see the latest ITU IMT2030 (6G) rec= ommendations specify that ubiquity only refers to a defined coverage area, = not nationwide: "The term 'ubiquitous' is r= elated to the considered target coverage area and is not intended to relate= to an entire region or country"=2E Well, that's one way to avoid lyin= g in future - redefine the word itself to mean something else that's easier= an more convenient=2E

Lie 4: Mobile data traffic = is growing "exponentially"

Exponential is a mathematical = term referring to an accelerating growth rate=2E In almost all cases, mobil= e data traffic growth is now slowing=2E

Most predictions = suggest it settling down to maybe 20% year-on-year in mature markets=2E And= even that is mostly driven by MNO-driven decisions like offering FWA fixed= wireless services (which have 20x the consumption of normal smartphone use= ), or inappropriate pushing of unlimited plans or bundled / zero-rated vide= o=2E

I still see telco policy people deliberately overesti= mating traffic forecasts, either to make arguments for more spectrum, or wh= en lying about so-called "large traffic generators" or risible "fair share"= schemes=2E

Lie 5: Network traffic is "generated" = by content / cloud companies

I've previously written a fu= ll LinkedIn post calling out the term "large traffic generator" as a clear = lie=2E It's been one of the most-read that I've published this year, which = presumably implies I generated a lot o= f data traffic personally=2E

The reality is that Internet= users generate traffic=2E They reques= t movies, play games, scroll timelines, download software updates, and read= articles=2E The fact I watch a GB of video traffic from a popular site rat= her than a niche one is irrelevant - although the larger one is more likely= to have its own CDN=2E

There's a small amount of "push" = data such as autoplay follow-on videos, but adverts are usually tolerated a= s an alternative to fees=2E It's not a big deal - and in any case, network = costs are linked to peak traffic level= s, not total volumes=2E

Lie 6: "Voice" is the same= as "Telephony"

There are 1000s of forms of voice communi= cation=2E Phone calls are just one highly-specified application, with speci= fic behavioural, technical and regulatory characteristics=2E Telephony is <= /p>

Push-to-talk, in-game chat, karaoke, audioconferences, voi= ce assistants, podcasts, audio captioning, Alexa "drop-ins" and many others= are not telephony=2E

Generally, telcos don't do "voice" = in general=2E They only do telephony, plus a few extra bits like voicemail= =2E A few have their own voice home assistants=2E

(Histori= cal sidenote: audio streaming using phone networks has been around since th= e 1880s=2E If you're a telco complaining about "OTT" media content, you're = 150 years late)=2E

Lie 7: All Wi-Fi use on smartph= ones is "offload"

The term "offload" really involves Wi-F= i traffic that would otherwise have gone over cellular networks, but an aut= omated systems pushes to Wi-Fi instead=2E It excludes data that the user (o= r the OS) deliberately selects Wi-Fi for=2E

If I watch a = YouTube video on my sofa on my phone via Wi-Fi, that's not offload=2E That'= s just me using my home broadband=2E

Maybe only 5% of smar= tphone Wi-Fi data is genuine offload=2E And even that could translate to a = smaller amount over cellular, because both user and app-developer choices o= ften mean extra "elasticity" - higher resolution or frame-rates, extra usag= e because it feels free/unmetered and so on=2E

Lie= 8: Interoperability is always beneficial

Interoperabilit= y for infrastructure can be very useful - we all benefit from devices that = work with wireless or fixed broadband networks, and are tested and certifie= d to be compatible with each other=2E

But interoperability= for applications and services is much more mixed=2E As long as users can "= multi-home" and have several different calling, messaging, social or gaming= platforms, it's not necessary to have interoperability=2E

Yes, there can be competition concerns, but that doesn't imply a need to = regulate for a lowest-common denominator set of features, with a wide array= of unintended consequences=2E Interop should be on-demand (especially if c= ustomers explicitly ask for it), not assumed to be an ideal scenario and ma= ndated by regulation=2E

Yes, I'm thinking of the EU DMA's= stupid rules on messaging interop, but also a more general argument about = all communications apps & services, as well as fields like AR/VR/metave= rse=2E There's still a role for proprietary network technologies and archit= ectures in some cases too - openness is great, but it's wrong to say it sho= uld be universal=2E

Lie 9: QoS or performance can = be guaranteed "End to End"

Almost every time you see the = term "end to end", it's a lie, especially in reference to network quality o= r performance=2E

In reality, nobody controls all the components of a network or application path= , outside very niche and specifically-engineered situations=2E At best, the= y can oversee and prioritise activity between two arbitrary points in the m= iddle=2E

Think through a videoconference session=2E It inv= olves at least two networks, plus interconnections=2E Multiple devices, wit= h multiple components like processors and memory=2E A cloud platform and ma= ybe a CDN and 3rd-party elements=2E Maybe a last-metre connection via Wi-Fi= or Bluetooth or a USB cable=2E Maybe one user is deep in-building or in a = moving vehicle=2E

End-to-end QoS can be created if there's= one network, IT or OT manager in charge of a local system=2E It can be off= ered on one fibre connection and a few boxes, or perhaps across one boundar= y=2E But truly end-to-end? Nope=2E

Lie 10: "Digita= l" tech is new, cool & all that matters

Yes, I have a= bee in my bonnet about the word "digital"=2E I cringe at phrases like "dig= ital transformation", or "digital infrastructure"=2E It's like going back t= o the 1980s and hearing "information superhighway" or "multimedia"=2E

We've had digital communications since Morse and the telegraph = in the 1840s=2E Digital computers since the 1940s=2E Digital phone switches= since the 1980s=2E The WWW since the 1990s=2E

Digital is= old=2E

Don't get me wrong, it's still useful=2E (Obviousl= y)=2E But so is fire and the wheel=2E

What irks me is that= much of the coolest stuff in tech today isn't digital - it's quantum, or n= euromorphic, or biological, materials-based, analogue and many other domain= s of innovation that don't depend on 1's and 0's=2E

The ne= w & cool stuff is mostly Post-Digital=2E

Lie 11: Mobile enables huge CO2 savings

There are many claims that use of mobile (or 5G) leads to h= uge savings in carbon footprint - fewer flights because of videoconferences= , wireless traffic controls reducing congestion, connected solar panels and= batteries, and so on=2E

Most of this is a massive exercis= e in double, or 10x-counting=2E If I do a videoconference with a client, th= ere's at least 2 access networks, interconnects / long-haul fibre, two end-= devices, two screens, two cameras, lots of chips, a cloud platform, a video= app or browsers, mics etc=2E

Being generous, one of the = access networks (probably fixed+WiFi rather than mobile anyway) maybe accou= nts for 5% of the total savings=2E And only a handful of trips are replaced= with video, in any case - most video sessions are incremental, or replace = a lower-energy voice-only call=2E

Lie 12: "The dat= a and KPIs prove XYZ"

One of my big campaigns this year h= as been about the need for good metrics, not easy metrics=2E I've written s= everal posts about it, and an entire report for my friends at STL Partners= =2E

In telecoms we get huge volumes of reported data - ave= rage network speeds, 5G coverage, spectrum prices in $/MHz-pop, homes passe= d, minutes of use, GB of data traffic, numbers of messages sent, and myriad= s more=2E

The problem is that many of these data points ar= e used because they are easy to collect, easy to regulate & have a lot = of historical comparisons=2E But they're often useless, or sometimes worse-= than-useless=2E

They get cherrypicked, used out of contex= t, used to "prove" the need for policies that they don't actually support, = and don't represent the reality on the ground=2E

Take mob= ile coverage, usually cited as a % of residential population that can get a= signal outdoors=2E Yet most will agree that many 5G uses are for non-resid= ential applications and locations (eg farms, ports, industrial zones), or i= ndoors=2E And coverage doesn't mean performance or "full 5G" capabilities= =2E

Then there are all the many tiers of lies about networ= k data traffic, used to "prove" the costs of network CAPEX, energy use, nee= d for taxing cloud/content companies, arguing against net neutrality and so= on=2E Aggregate traffic is largely irrelevant - in reality costs are drive= n by initial build / coverage area (even at zero traffic) and sometimes pea= k rates=2E Energy usage isn't linked to traffic mostly, either=2E

We all know the phrase "lies, damned lies, and statistics"=2E So le= t's try to collect and use better stats in future=2E

Conclusion

Yes, this is a bit of a rant=2E And yes, a = lot of people will object to me calling them liars=2E But let's be clear, m= ost of those I'm referring to have jobs to do, that sometimes need "messagi= ng" to be massaged=2E

And I haven't even got onto the dod= gy term "OTT", mentioned RCS (no it's not SMS2=2E0), laughed at cryptocurre= ncy-powered "DePIN", called out exaggerations about the role of satellite d= irect-to-device, or ridiculed the criticism thrown at shared spectrum, CBRS= or private networks=2E

So if you recognise yourself in th= is, tell the real telco Pinocchios - the lawyers, lobbyists, marketeers and= headline-writers - that you're not willing to peddle untruths or half-trut= hs in future=2E Don't let them put your nose out of joint, or make it grow = longer=2E
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-- Sent from my Android device with K-9 Mail=2E Please excuse my brevity=2E<= /div>
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