[NNagain] The rise and fall of the 90's telecom bubble

[NNagain] The rise and fall of the 90's telecom bubble

[Dave Taht]

Aside from me pinning the start of the bubble closer to 1992 when
commercial activity was allowed, and M&A for ISPs at insane valuations
per subscriber by 1995 (I had co-founded an ISP in 93, but try as I
might I cannot remember if it peaked at 50 or 60x1 by 1996 (?) and
crashed by 97 (?)), this was a whacking good read, seems accurate, and
moves to comparing it across that to the present day AI bubble.

https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/lessons-from-history-the-rise-and

In the end we sold (my ISP, founded 93) icanect for 3 cents on the
dollar in 99, and I lost my shirt (not for the first time) on it, only
to move into embedded Linux (Montavista) after the enormous pop
redhat's IPO had had in 99. The company I was part of slightly prior
(Mediaplex) went public December 12, 1999 and cracked 100/share, only
to crash by march, 2000 to half the IPO price (around $7 as I recall),
wiping out everyone that had not vested yet. I lost my shirt again on
that and Montavista too and decided I would avoid VCs henceforth.

I am always interested in anecdotal reports of personal events in this
increasingly murky past, and in trying to fact check the above link.

So much fiber got laid by 2000 that it is often claimed that it was at
least a decade before it was used up, (the article says only 2.7% was
in use by 2002) and I have always wondered how much dark, broken,
inaccessible fiber remains that nobody knows where it even is anymore
due to many lost databases. I hear horror stories...

The article also focuses solely on the us sector, and I am wondering
what it looked like worldwide.

I believed in the 90s we were seeing major productivity gains. The
present expansion of the internet in my mind should not be much
associated with "productivity gains", as, imho, reducing the general
population to two thumbs and a 4 inch screen strikes me as an enormous
step backwards.

(I have a bad habit of cross posting my mails to where older denizens
of the internet reside, sorry! If you end up posting to one of my
lists I will add a sender allows filter for you)
-- 
:( My old R&D campus is up for sale: https://tinyurl.com/yurtlab
Dave Täht CSO, LibreQos

Re: [NNagain] The rise and fall of the 90's telecom bubble

[Nathan Simington]

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Hi Dave,

Re not seeing productivity gains, I'm very interested in seeing telecom
start to translate more into productivity, including nuts-and-bolts
manufacturing productivity.

(From a 30-year backward perspective, you could reasonably argue IMHO that
much of the ideology that "deindustrialization is good" was generated to
justify software companies' valuation multipliers. The Chinese don't seem
to agree that deindustrialization is good or that it's a bad idea to hold
production assets on-balance sheet. Meanwhile, it's been historically much
easier to make money in flaky, consumer-grade software than in reliable,
infrastructure-grade smart manufacturing/logistics -- even though it's
clear that the latter is the real prize, just as steel mills were a bigger
prize for the 18th-c UK than faster post-horses or cheaper India ink would
have been.)

I think a lazy, vague equation between "good 5G" and "Chinese-style smart
manufacturing" has had a lot of policy salience in the last 5 years. Would
love to spend some time thinking together about what a smart manufacturing
system would look like in terms of connectivity, latency,
compute availability, anything that occurs to you. I know a guy who does
devops for factories, and he has amazing stories -- might be good to make
that connection as well. Also, I think you had a catch-up with Adam from my
team about wireless ISPs/improved routers -- hope that went well!

Take care,
Nathan

On Sun, Nov 12, 2023 at 10:49 AM Dave Taht via Nnagain <
nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:

> Aside from me pinning the start of the bubble closer to 1992 when
> commercial activity was allowed, and M&A for ISPs at insane valuations
> per subscriber by 1995 (I had co-founded an ISP in 93, but try as I
> might I cannot remember if it peaked at 50 or 60x1 by 1996 (?) and
> crashed by 97 (?)), this was a whacking good read, seems accurate, and
> moves to comparing it across that to the present day AI bubble.
>
> https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/lessons-from-history-the-rise-and
>
> In the end we sold (my ISP, founded 93) icanect for 3 cents on the
> dollar in 99, and I lost my shirt (not for the first time) on it, only
> to move into embedded Linux (Montavista) after the enormous pop
> redhat's IPO had had in 99. The company I was part of slightly prior
> (Mediaplex) went public December 12, 1999 and cracked 100/share, only
> to crash by march, 2000 to half the IPO price (around $7 as I recall),
> wiping out everyone that had not vested yet. I lost my shirt again on
> that and Montavista too and decided I would avoid VCs henceforth.
>
> I am always interested in anecdotal reports of personal events in this
> increasingly murky past, and in trying to fact check the above link.
>
> So much fiber got laid by 2000 that it is often claimed that it was at
> least a decade before it was used up, (the article says only 2.7% was
> in use by 2002) and I have always wondered how much dark, broken,
> inaccessible fiber remains that nobody knows where it even is anymore
> due to many lost databases. I hear horror stories...
>
> The article also focuses solely on the us sector, and I am wondering
> what it looked like worldwide.
>
> I believed in the 90s we were seeing major productivity gains. The
> present expansion of the internet in my mind should not be much
> associated with "productivity gains", as, imho, reducing the general
> population to two thumbs and a 4 inch screen strikes me as an enormous
> step backwards.
>
> (I have a bad habit of cross posting my mails to where older denizens
> of the internet reside, sorry! If you end up posting to one of my
> lists I will add a sender allows filter for you)
> --
> :( My old R&D campus is up for sale: https://tinyurl.com/yurtlab
> Dave Täht CSO, LibreQos
> _______________________________________________
> Nnagain mailing list
> Nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net
> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/nnagain
>


-- 
Nathan Simington
cell: 305-793-6899

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Re: [NNagain] The rise and fall of the 90's telecom bubble

[Joe Hamelin]

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I started my TCP life (moving from broadcast engineering) back in about
'94ish.  I was in Yakima, WA and took care of the 9 working modems for
Wolfe.net after being on connected.com and teleport.com (Portland, OR).  My
girlfriend  (later my wife), who I met online via the unix talk command got
hired with me by Wolfe and moved to Seattle.  We worked with them for a few
years during the dial-up days and moved on to one of their customers where
we had massive growth and 2.5Gb/s of pipe in 1998 (yes, it was pr0n.) Then
I went to AMZN and got their first netblock after haggling with ARIN at a
BOF at NANOG 19 in Atlanta. See back then, AMZN could only justify a /22
since we were just a website.  Many years later I landed in corporate
aerospace and will likely die here at my keyboard.

Anyway, now when the youngins ask me technical TCP/IP questions I like to
start off with, "Well, back when we were building the Internet..."

On Sun, Nov 12, 2023 at 7:49 AM Dave Taht via Nnagain <
nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:

> Aside from me pinning the start of the bubble closer to 1992 when
> commercial activity was allowed, and M&A for ISPs at insane valuations
> per subscriber by 1995 (I had co-founded an ISP in 93, but try as I
> might I cannot remember if it peaked at 50 or 60x1 by 1996 (?) and
> crashed by 97 (?)), this was a whacking good read, seems accurate, and
> moves to comparing it across that to the present day AI bubble.
>
> https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/lessons-from-history-the-rise-and
>
> In the end we sold (my ISP, founded 93) icanect for 3 cents on the
> dollar in 99, and I lost my shirt (not for the first time) on it, only
> to move into embedded Linux (Montavista) after the enormous pop
> redhat's IPO had had in 99. The company I was part of slightly prior
> (Mediaplex) went public December 12, 1999 and cracked 100/share, only
> to crash by march, 2000 to half the IPO price (around $7 as I recall),
> wiping out everyone that had not vested yet. I lost my shirt again on
> that and Montavista too and decided I would avoid VCs henceforth.
>
> I am always interested in anecdotal reports of personal events in this
> increasingly murky past, and in trying to fact check the above link.
>
> So much fiber got laid by 2000 that it is often claimed that it was at
> least a decade before it was used up, (the article says only 2.7% was
> in use by 2002) and I have always wondered how much dark, broken,
> inaccessible fiber remains that nobody knows where it even is anymore
> due to many lost databases. I hear horror stories...
>
> The article also focuses solely on the us sector, and I am wondering
> what it looked like worldwide.
>
> I believed in the 90s we were seeing major productivity gains. The
> present expansion of the internet in my mind should not be much
> associated with "productivity gains", as, imho, reducing the general
> population to two thumbs and a 4 inch screen strikes me as an enormous
> step backwards.
>
> (I have a bad habit of cross posting my mails to where older denizens
> of the internet reside, sorry! If you end up posting to one of my
> lists I will add a sender allows filter for you)
> --
> :( My old R&D campus is up for sale: https://tinyurl.com/yurtlab
> Dave Täht CSO, LibreQos
> _______________________________________________
> Nnagain mailing list
> Nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net
> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/nnagain
>


-- 
--
Joe Hamelin, W7COM, Tulalip, WA, 360-474-7474

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Re: [NNagain] The rise and fall of the 90's telecom bubble

[Dave Taht]

On Sun, Nov 12, 2023 at 3:23 PM Nathan Simington via Nnagain
<nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:
>
> Hi Dave,
>
> Re not seeing productivity gains, I'm very interested in seeing telecom start to translate more into productivity, including nuts-and-bolts manufacturing productivity.

This is one of those vast and deep subjects very hard to cover even in
long form emails! I go back to some of the earlier developments in
factory floor automation like the Boeing's "HIP" protocol, and I have
only current familiarity with smart AG than shop automation. Hopefully
we can find more people to comment on the state of the art there. Karl
(a member here) has had a grand time red-teaming  network impairments
into multiple robotics experiments. While his videos of robots failing
are hilarious, the underlying causes ill understood... and in some
cases, fatal, in a real deployment.

> (From a 30-year backward perspective, you could reasonably argue IMHO that much of the ideology that "deindustrialization is good" was generated to justify software companies' valuation multipliers.

Yes.

The short term margins in just software were appealing. But once you
lose control of the underlying platforms your software needs to run
on, things get dicy fast.

How to regain a long term perspective? I have many bugaboos here,
things like shifting academia away from publishing papers to running
code, or repurposing the patent system... but not today.

>The Chinese don't seem to agree that deindustrialization is good or that it's a bad idea to hold production assets on-balance sheet.

Agree.

>Meanwhile, it's been historically much easier to make money in flaky, consumer-grade software than in reliable, infrastructure-grade smart manufacturing/logistics --

I need to unpack three things from the above: "Cheap, consumer-grade
software", for starters.

I sometimes reflect on how well the nation's septic systems work after
100s of years of development, and yet how few understand why an "air
return" is needed until they finally encounter the side effects of a
clogged one.

This week, taking place, is the premier "Linux Plumbers" conference
at 100 S 12th St, Richmond, VA 23219. People can also attend remotely.
see https://lpc.events/ for more details.

It would be good for less technical folk to at least do the hallway
track. They might find technologists worth hiring.

...

Building reliable *infrastructure* software is a different beast than
"consumer", and what it takes, in terms of design, development,
continuous integration, fuzz testing, deployment, and maintenance of
hundreds of millions of lines of code in order to evolve this
fundamental OS component of an "Advanced telecom infrastructure"  is
ill understood ... because we do our job too well most of the time.

Speaking there this week is one of my favorite computer scientists,
Paul McKenney, who after inventing "stochastic fair queuing" (SFQ) in
the 90s, in his "RCU" work with tandem, sequent, ibm, and now meta
since, went on to working on solving classes of paralellism's "million
year problems" - bugs that only happen once in a million years for
multi-core architectures, or every few minutes on some machine out of
a billion, somewhere.

If you know anyone in DC tired of reading or writing law, I recommend
a journey through Paul's lighter book "Is parallel programming hard?"
https://arxiv.org/abs/1701.00854 - particularly the chapter on mere
parallel counting problems.

Parallel software designed for distributed, loosely coupled systems
like the internet is a whole additional shelf of books.

There is another class of realtime software that controls our cars,
milling machines and essential infrastructure.

I am not sure if I understand what you mean by "cheap, consumer
software"? I start by breaking things down into "can this software
accidently kill people, or not?". Others might break it down more into
"will this software improve productivity, or if used, what are the
potential financial damages of a security breach?".

Finally moving to your logistics point... well, I miss older tools for
planning ahead potentially years such as gaant charts.

> even though it's clear that the latter is the real prize, just as steel mills were a bigger prize for the 18th-c UK than faster post-horses or cheaper India ink would have been.)

I boggled at the outsourcing trends that culminated in the Boeing 787
mess. But more on that and QA techniques like TQM, or six sigma, or
skunkworks, later.

I admire the kind of vertical integration Apple and Spacex now do
instead, and the kind of fail-fast testing anyone can now do at
internet scale.

>
> I think a lazy, vague equation between "good 5G" and "Chinese-style smart manufacturing" has had a lot of policy salience in the last 5 years. Would love to spend some time thinking together about what a smart manufacturing system would look like in terms of connectivity, latency, compute availability, anything that occurs to you. I know a guy who does devops for factories, and he has amazing stories -- might be good to make that connection as well.

I would hope there exists a forum, mailing list, or organisation that
focuses more sharply on these issues.

>Also, I think you had a catch-up with Adam from my team about wireless ISPs/improved routers -- hope that went well!

I always enjoy puncturing holes in the legal "network neutral"
conceptions of common carriage with entertaining analogies about how
the ubiquitous tcp slow start (web pages, file transfers) and
voip/gaming/videoconferencing algorithms used to be mutually
incompatible... as I did in four minutes with them:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWViGcBlnm0&t=16m20s

and I hope pass along.

IF we could somehow get the intuition across to millions more - or a
sufficient number of those in power - that the internet's behavior is
governed by:

" we constantly probe for more bandwidth by throwing ever more packets
until we lose one, slow down, retransmit, gradually increase the speed
until we get another drop, slow down, retransmit and then... imagine
trillions of applications like these governed by these two simple
rules, transmitting data over billions of tubes interconnected by
often overlarge funnels, and designed by madmen..."

We could make enormous progress along the edge in a matter of months,
rather than decades.

But: in an informal survey of 30+ "regular" folk over the past few
weeks, not a single one could describe what "a packet" was, which is
the fundamental underlying "atom" out of which the internet is
constructed. I did not know this before! It never occurred to me
before now that how data got from one place to another was considered
to be akin to magic.

It's a fine mess we're in, ollie.
> Take care,
> Nathan
>
> On Sun, Nov 12, 2023 at 10:49 AM Dave Taht via Nnagain <nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:
>>
>> Aside from me pinning the start of the bubble closer to 1992 when
>> commercial activity was allowed, and M&A for ISPs at insane valuations
>> per subscriber by 1995 (I had co-founded an ISP in 93, but try as I
>> might I cannot remember if it peaked at 50 or 60x1 by 1996 (?) and
>> crashed by 97 (?)), this was a whacking good read, seems accurate, and
>> moves to comparing it across that to the present day AI bubble.
>>
>> https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/lessons-from-history-the-rise-and
>>
>> In the end we sold (my ISP, founded 93) icanect for 3 cents on the
>> dollar in 99, and I lost my shirt (not for the first time) on it, only
>> to move into embedded Linux (Montavista) after the enormous pop
>> redhat's IPO had had in 99. The company I was part of slightly prior
>> (Mediaplex) went public December 12, 1999 and cracked 100/share, only
>> to crash by march, 2000 to half the IPO price (around $7 as I recall),
>> wiping out everyone that had not vested yet. I lost my shirt again on
>> that and Montavista too and decided I would avoid VCs henceforth.
>>
>> I am always interested in anecdotal reports of personal events in this
>> increasingly murky past, and in trying to fact check the above link.
>>
>> So much fiber got laid by 2000 that it is often claimed that it was at
>> least a decade before it was used up, (the article says only 2.7% was
>> in use by 2002) and I have always wondered how much dark, broken,
>> inaccessible fiber remains that nobody knows where it even is anymore
>> due to many lost databases. I hear horror stories...
>>
>> The article also focuses solely on the us sector, and I am wondering
>> what it looked like worldwide.
>>
>> I believed in the 90s we were seeing major productivity gains. The
>> present expansion of the internet in my mind should not be much
>> associated with "productivity gains", as, imho, reducing the general
>> population to two thumbs and a 4 inch screen strikes me as an enormous
>> step backwards.
>>
>> (I have a bad habit of cross posting my mails to where older denizens
>> of the internet reside, sorry! If you end up posting to one of my
>> lists I will add a sender allows filter for you)
>> --
>> :( My old R&D campus is up for sale: https://tinyurl.com/yurtlab
>> Dave Täht CSO, LibreQos
>> _______________________________________________
>> Nnagain mailing list
>> Nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net
>> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/nnagain
>
>
>
> --
> Nathan Simington
> cell: 305-793-6899
> _______________________________________________
> Nnagain mailing list
> Nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net
> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/nnagain



--
:( My old R&D campus is up for sale: https://tinyurl.com/yurtlab
Dave Täht CSO, LibreQos

Re: [NNagain] The rise and fall of the 90's telecom bubble

[Livingood, Jason]

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> Would love to spend some time thinking together about what a smart manufacturing system would look like in terms of connectivity, latency, compute availability, anything that occurs to you. I know a guy who does devops for factories, and he has amazing stories -- might be good to make that connection as well.

One of the L4S (low latency, low loss, scalable throughput) demos that Nokia did at a recent IETF hackathon showed a simulated 5G access network to do low latency remote control of cranes in an industrial port facility. It seemed like one of their points was that you could remotely operate cargo container movements with the crane via a remote workforce over a low delay network connection - even with fairly limited bandwidth (they’d adjust the throughput down to just a few hundred kbps).

While they did not say much more, I could envision a port operator being able to gain more efficiency by enabling a skilled operator to control cranes at several ports around the world on an as-needed basis (vs. being based in 1 port and having some downtime or low utilization of their skills/training), even from the comfort of home.

Jason


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Re: [NNagain] The rise and fall of the 90's telecom bubble

[Sebastian Moeller]

Hi Jason,


> On Nov 13, 2023, at 08:54, Livingood, Jason via Nnagain <nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:
> 
> > Would love to spend some time thinking together about what a smart manufacturing system would look like in terms of connectivity, latency, compute availability, anything that occurs to you. I know a guy who does devops for factories, and he has amazing stories -- might be good to make that connection as well. 
>  
> One of the L4S (low latency, low loss, scalable throughput) demos that Nokia did at a recent IETF hackathon showed a simulated 5G access network to do low latency remote control of cranes in an industrial port facility. It seemed like one of their points was that you could remotely operate cargo container movements with the crane via a remote workforce over a low delay network connection - even with fairly limited bandwidth (they’d adjust the throughput down to just a few hundred kbps).
>  
> While they did not say much more, I could envision a port operator being able to gain more efficiency by enabling a skilled operator to control cranes at several ports around the world on an as-needed basis (vs. being based in 1 port and having some downtime or low utilization of their skills/training), even from the comfort of home.


	I would stop doing business with such ports... there clearly are accidents (or sabotage/jamming) just waiting to happen using wireless connections for such use-cases... Yes, I understand that that is what Nokia sells, so everything looks like a nail to them, but really "caveat emptor", just because something can be done does not mean it should be done as well... 

Regards
	Sebastian

P.S.: Currently in the US for a conference, getting reminded how shitty GSM/LTE can be, heck the conference WiFi (with 25K attendees) is more responsive than GSM... I am sure 5G might be better, but my phone is LTE only... 


>  
> Jason
>  
> _______________________________________________
> Nnagain mailing list
> Nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net
> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/nnagain

Re: [NNagain] The rise and fall of the 90's telecom bubble

[Dick Roy]

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-----Original Message-----
From: Nnagain [mailto:nnagain-bounces@lists.bufferbloat.net] On Behalf Of
Sebastian Moeller via Nnagain
Sent: Monday, November 13, 2023 6:15 AM
To: Network Neutrality is back! Let´s make the technical aspects heard this
time!
Cc: Sebastian Moeller
Subject: Re: [NNagain] The rise and fall of the 90's telecom bubble

 

Hi Jason,

 

 

> On Nov 13, 2023, at 08:54, Livingood, Jason via Nnagain
<nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:

> 

> > Would love to spend some time thinking together about what a smart
manufacturing system would look like in terms of connectivity, latency,
compute availability, anything that occurs to you. I know a guy who does
devops for factories, and he has amazing stories -- might be good to make
that connection as well. 

>  

> One of the L4S (low latency, low loss, scalable throughput) demos that
Nokia did at a recent IETF hackathon showed a simulated 5G access network to
do low latency remote control of cranes in an industrial port facility. It
seemed like one of their points was that you could remotely operate cargo
container movements with the crane via a remote workforce over a low delay
network connection - even with fairly limited bandwidth (they’d adjust the
throughput down to just a few hundred kbps).

>  

> While they did not say much more, I could envision a port operator being
able to gain more efficiency by enabling a skilled operator to control
cranes at several ports around the world on an as-needed basis (vs. being
based in 1 port and having some downtime or low utilization of their
skills/training), even from the comfort of home.

 

 

      I would stop doing business with such ports... there clearly are
accidents (or sabotage/jamming) just waiting to happen using wireless
connections for such use-cases... Yes, I understand that that is what Nokia
sells, so everything looks like a nail to them, but really "caveat emptor",
just because something can be done does not mean it should be done as
well... 

 

Regards

      Sebastian

 

P.S.: Currently in the US for a conference, getting reminded how shitty
GSM/LTE can be, heck the conference WiFi (with 25K attendees) is more
responsive than GSM... I am sure 5G might be better, but my phone is LTE
only...

[RR] Welcome to the “club”!  We in the US have been dealing with this for
over 30 years … why you ask???? ... answer … CDMA and the IPR behind it!  It
was and still is “all about the money!”. My phone has 5G and when download
rates plummet to the floor, all I have to do is look at the top of the
display, and lo and behold … I’m on 5G!!! If you believe 5G is going to be
better, I have a bridge for you that “is going to be soooo much better”
:-):-):-)

 

RR

 

 

 

 

>  

> Jason

>  

> _______________________________________________

> Nnagain mailing list

> Nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net

> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/nnagain

 

_______________________________________________

Nnagain mailing list

Nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net

https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/nnagain


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Re: [NNagain] The rise and fall of the 90's telecom bubble

[Sebastian Moeller]

Hi Richard,


> On Nov 13, 2023, at 16:08, Dick Roy via Nnagain <nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:
> 
>  
>  
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Nnagain [mailto:nnagain-bounces@lists.bufferbloat.net] On Behalf Of Sebastian Moeller via Nnagain
> Sent: Monday, November 13, 2023 6:15 AM
> To: Network Neutrality is back! Let´s make the technical aspects heard this time!
> Cc: Sebastian Moeller
> Subject: Re: [NNagain] The rise and fall of the 90's telecom bubble
>  
> Hi Jason,
>  
>  
> > On Nov 13, 2023, at 08:54, Livingood, Jason via Nnagain <nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:
> > 
> > > Would love to spend some time thinking together about what a smart manufacturing system would look like in terms of connectivity, latency, compute availability, anything that occurs to you. I know a guy who does devops for factories, and he has amazing stories -- might be good to make that connection as well. 
> >  
> > One of the L4S (low latency, low loss, scalable throughput) demos that Nokia did at a recent IETF hackathon showed a simulated 5G access network to do low latency remote control of cranes in an industrial port facility. It seemed like one of their points was that you could remotely operate cargo container movements with the crane via a remote workforce over a low delay network connection - even with fairly limited bandwidth (they’d adjust the throughput down to just a few hundred kbps).
> >  
> > While they did not say much more, I could envision a port operator being able to gain more efficiency by enabling a skilled operator to control cranes at several ports around the world on an as-needed basis (vs. being based in 1 port and having some downtime or low utilization of their skills/training), even from the comfort of home.
>  
>  
>       I would stop doing business with such ports... there clearly are accidents (or sabotage/jamming) just waiting to happen using wireless connections for such use-cases... Yes, I understand that that is what Nokia sells, so everything looks like a nail to them, but really "caveat emptor", just because something can be done does not mean it should be done as well... 
>  
> Regards
>       Sebastian
>  
> P.S.: Currently in the US for a conference, getting reminded how shitty GSM/LTE can be, heck the conference WiFi (with 25K attendees) is more responsive than GSM... I am sure 5G might be better, but my phone is LTE only...
> [RR] Welcome to the “club”!  We in the US have been dealing with this for over 30 years … why you ask???? ... answer … CDMA and the IPR behind it!  It was and still is “all about the money!”. My phone has 5G and when download rates plummet to the floor, all I have to do is look at the top of the display, and lo and behold … I’m on 5G!!! If you believe 5G is going to be better, I have a bridge for you that “is going to be soooo much better” JJJ

	All good explanations for what I see, yet this is happening in the capital... (but truth be told, when I bought this phone I did not pay much attention to which bands it was suited for, it is not impossible that it at least partly my phone's fault that I am connecting with EDGE speeds, quite the throw-back to the 2000s ;) but back then EDGE was indeed cutting edge). 
About that bridge, I hope this is in NY city?



Regards
	Sebastian


>  
> RR
>  
>  
>  
>  
> >  
> > Jason
> >  
> > _______________________________________________
> > Nnagain mailing list
> > Nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net
> > https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/nnagain
>  
> _______________________________________________
> Nnagain mailing list
> Nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net
> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/nnagain
> _______________________________________________
> Nnagain mailing list
> Nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net
> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/nnagain

Re: [NNagain] The rise and fall of the 90's telecom bubble

[Dave Taht]

On Tue, Nov 14, 2023 at 7:06 AM Sebastian Moeller via Nnagain
<nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:

>         All good explanations for what I see, yet this is happening in the capital... (but truth be told, when I bought this phone I did not pay much attention to which bands it was suited for, it is not impossible that it at least partly my phone's fault that I am connecting with EDGE speeds, quite the throw-back to the 2000s ;) but back then EDGE was indeed cutting edge).
> About that bridge, I hope this is in NY city?

It is delicious that all over the world, the actual ownership and
resale value of the brooklyn bridge is so well known, that it is
probably not required to explain the joke. That said it might be a
good phrase to create and reference to the individual that made it
famous:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_C._Parker

.. because the police had had to remove multiple newbie brooklyn
bridge "owners" from erecting tollbooths on it. This analogy - call it
 - um, "Parkerization" - which has a similar meaning for wine -
because of so many other would-be tollbooth owners erecting their
financial "acumen" over otherwise simple, universal internet
structures, from web certificates to web3.

I am also kind of curious as to how long this meme has been in the
world and real estate have been "sold" by famous grifters to an
unsuspecting public.

>
>
>
> Regards
>         Sebastian
>
>
> >
> > RR
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > >
> > > Jason
> > >
> > > _______________________________________________
> > > Nnagain mailing list
> > > Nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net
> > > https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/nnagain
> >
> > _______________________________________________
> > Nnagain mailing list
> > Nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net
> > https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/nnagain
> > _______________________________________________
> > Nnagain mailing list
> > Nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net
> > https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/nnagain
>
> _______________________________________________
> Nnagain mailing list
> Nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net
> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/nnagain



-- 
:( My old R&D campus is up for sale: https://tinyurl.com/yurtlab
Dave Täht CSO, LibreQos

Re: [NNagain] The rise and fall of the 90's telecom bubble

[Mike Hammett]

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There were obviously many facets, but I think one of the turns was due to DWDM. You no longer needed a pair for every circuit. That then contributed to the glut of strands. 




----- 
Mike Hammett 
Intelligent Computing Solutions 
http://www.ics-il.com 

Midwest-IX 
http://www.midwest-ix.com 

----- Original Message -----

From: "Dave Taht" <dave.taht@gmail.com> 
To: "Internet-history" <internet-history@elists.isoc.org>, "Network Neutrality is back! Let´s make the technical aspects heard this time!" <nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net>, "NANOG" <nanog@nanog.org>, "bloat" <bloat@lists.bufferbloat.net> 
Sent: Sunday, November 12, 2023 9:48:46 AM 
Subject: The rise and fall of the 90's telecom bubble 

Aside from me pinning the start of the bubble closer to 1992 when 
commercial activity was allowed, and M&A for ISPs at insane valuations 
per subscriber by 1995 (I had co-founded an ISP in 93, but try as I 
might I cannot remember if it peaked at 50 or 60x1 by 1996 (?) and 
crashed by 97 (?)), this was a whacking good read, seems accurate, and 
moves to comparing it across that to the present day AI bubble. 

https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/lessons-from-history-the-rise-and 

In the end we sold (my ISP, founded 93) icanect for 3 cents on the 
dollar in 99, and I lost my shirt (not for the first time) on it, only 
to move into embedded Linux (Montavista) after the enormous pop 
redhat's IPO had had in 99. The company I was part of slightly prior 
(Mediaplex) went public December 12, 1999 and cracked 100/share, only 
to crash by march, 2000 to half the IPO price (around $7 as I recall), 
wiping out everyone that had not vested yet. I lost my shirt again on 
that and Montavista too and decided I would avoid VCs henceforth. 

I am always interested in anecdotal reports of personal events in this 
increasingly murky past, and in trying to fact check the above link. 

So much fiber got laid by 2000 that it is often claimed that it was at 
least a decade before it was used up, (the article says only 2.7% was 
in use by 2002) and I have always wondered how much dark, broken, 
inaccessible fiber remains that nobody knows where it even is anymore 
due to many lost databases. I hear horror stories... 

The article also focuses solely on the us sector, and I am wondering 
what it looked like worldwide. 

I believed in the 90s we were seeing major productivity gains. The 
present expansion of the internet in my mind should not be much 
associated with "productivity gains", as, imho, reducing the general 
population to two thumbs and a 4 inch screen strikes me as an enormous 
step backwards. 

(I have a bad habit of cross posting my mails to where older denizens 
of the internet reside, sorry! If you end up posting to one of my 
lists I will add a sender allows filter for you) 
-- 
:( My old R&D campus is up for sale: https://tinyurl.com/yurtlab 
Dave Täht CSO, LibreQos 


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Re: [NNagain] The rise and fall of the 90's telecom bubble

[Sebastian Moeller]

[-- Attachment #1: Type: text/plain, Size: 4541 bytes --]

Update, mmmh,

Virginia is apparently not only for 'lovers' but also for LTE, along the trip with the silver line to Dulles, my phone reported 4G, aka LTE, while in downtown DC EDGE-only it was...

Regards
         Sebsstian

On 14 November 2023 13:06:39 CET, Sebastian Moeller via Nnagain <nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:
>Hi Richard,
>
>
>> On Nov 13, 2023, at 16:08, Dick Roy via Nnagain <nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:
>> 
>>  
>>  
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Nnagain [mailto:nnagain-bounces@lists.bufferbloat.net] On Behalf Of Sebastian Moeller via Nnagain
>> Sent: Monday, November 13, 2023 6:15 AM
>> To: Network Neutrality is back! Let´s make the technical aspects heard this time!
>> Cc: Sebastian Moeller
>> Subject: Re: [NNagain] The rise and fall of the 90's telecom bubble
>>  
>> Hi Jason,
>>  
>>  
>> > On Nov 13, 2023, at 08:54, Livingood, Jason via Nnagain <nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:
>> > 
>> > > Would love to spend some time thinking together about what a smart manufacturing system would look like in terms of connectivity, latency, compute availability, anything that occurs to you. I know a guy who does devops for factories, and he has amazing stories -- might be good to make that connection as well. 
>> >  
>> > One of the L4S (low latency, low loss, scalable throughput) demos that Nokia did at a recent IETF hackathon showed a simulated 5G access network to do low latency remote control of cranes in an industrial port facility. It seemed like one of their points was that you could remotely operate cargo container movements with the crane via a remote workforce over a low delay network connection - even with fairly limited bandwidth (they’d adjust the throughput down to just a few hundred kbps).
>> >  
>> > While they did not say much more, I could envision a port operator being able to gain more efficiency by enabling a skilled operator to control cranes at several ports around the world on an as-needed basis (vs. being based in 1 port and having some downtime or low utilization of their skills/training), even from the comfort of home.
>>  
>>  
>>       I would stop doing business with such ports... there clearly are accidents (or sabotage/jamming) just waiting to happen using wireless connections for such use-cases... Yes, I understand that that is what Nokia sells, so everything looks like a nail to them, but really "caveat emptor", just because something can be done does not mean it should be done as well... 
>>  
>> Regards
>>       Sebastian
>>  
>> P.S.: Currently in the US for a conference, getting reminded how shitty GSM/LTE can be, heck the conference WiFi (with 25K attendees) is more responsive than GSM... I am sure 5G might be better, but my phone is LTE only...
>> [RR] Welcome to the “club”!  We in the US have been dealing with this for over 30 years … why you ask???? ... answer … CDMA and the IPR behind it!  It was and still is “all about the money!”. My phone has 5G and when download rates plummet to the floor, all I have to do is look at the top of the display, and lo and behold … I’m on 5G!!! If you believe 5G is going to be better, I have a bridge for you that “is going to be soooo much better” JJJ
>
>	All good explanations for what I see, yet this is happening in the capital... (but truth be told, when I bought this phone I did not pay much attention to which bands it was suited for, it is not impossible that it at least partly my phone's fault that I am connecting with EDGE speeds, quite the throw-back to the 2000s ;) but back then EDGE was indeed cutting edge). 
>About that bridge, I hope this is in NY city?
>
>
>
>Regards
>	Sebastian
>
>
>>  
>> RR
>>  
>>  
>>  
>>  
>> >  
>> > Jason
>> >  
>> > _______________________________________________
>> > Nnagain mailing list
>> > Nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net
>> > https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/nnagain
>>  
>> _______________________________________________
>> Nnagain mailing list
>> Nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net
>> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/nnagain
>> _______________________________________________
>> Nnagain mailing list
>> Nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net
>> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/nnagain
>
>_______________________________________________
>Nnagain mailing list
>Nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net
>https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/nnagain

-- 
Sent from my Android device with K-9 Mail. Please excuse my brevity.

[-- Attachment #2: Type: text/html, Size: 5788 bytes --]

Re: [NNagain] The rise and fall of the 90's telecom bubble

[Dick Roy]

[-- Attachment #1: Type: text/plain, Size: 4939 bytes --]

 

 

  _____  

From: Sebastian Moeller [mailto:moeller0@gmx.de] 
Sent: Thursday, November 16, 2023 3:02 AM
To: Network Neutrality is back! Let´s make the technical aspects heard this
time!; Sebastian Moeller via Nnagain; Dick Roy
Subject: Re: [NNagain] The rise and fall of the 90's telecom bubble

 

Update, mmmh,

Virginia is apparently not only for 'lovers' but also for LTE, along the
trip with the silver line to Dulles, my phone reported 4G, aka LTE, while in
downtown DC EDGE-only it was...

[RR] You are really lucky!  It could have said “5G” in which case you’d have
been down to 19kbps 1980 modem rates! :-):-)



Regards
         Sebsstian

 

On 14 November 2023 13:06:39 CET, Sebastian Moeller via Nnagain
<nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:

Hi Richard,







On Nov 13, 2023, at 16:08, Dick Roy via Nnagain
<nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:





 


 


-----Original Message-----


From: Nnagain [mailto:nnagain-bounces@lists.bufferbloat.net] On Behalf Of
Sebastian Moeller via Nnagain


Sent: Monday, November 13, 2023 6:15 AM


To: Network Neutrality is back! Let´s make the technical aspects heard this
time!


Cc: Sebastian Moeller


Subject: Re: [NNagain] The rise and fall of the 90's telecom bubble


 


Hi Jason,


 


 

On Nov 13, 2023, at 08:54, Livingood, Jason via Nnagain
<nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:

Would love to spend some time thinking together about what a smart
manufacturing system would look like in terms of connectivity, latency,
compute availability, anything that occurs to you. I know a guy who does
devops for factories, and he has amazing stories -- might be good to make
that connection as well. 

 


One of the L4S (low latency, low loss, scalable throughput) demos that Nokia
did at a recent IETF hackathon showed a simulated 5G access network to do
low latency remote control of cranes in an industrial port facility. It
seemed like one of their points was that you could remotely operate cargo
container movements with the crane via a remote workforce over a low delay
network connection - even with fairly limited bandwidth (they’d adjust the
throughput down to just a few hundred kbps).


 


While they did not say much more, I could envision a port operator being
able to gain more efficiency by enabling a skilled operator to control
cranes at several ports around the world on an as-needed basis (vs. being
based in 1 port and having some downtime or low utilization of their
skills/training), even from the comfort of home.

 


 


      I would stop doing business with such ports... there clearly are
accidents (or sabotage/jamming) just waiting to happen using wireless
connections for such use-cases... Yes, I understand that that is what Nokia
sells, so everything looks like a nail to them, but really "caveat emptor",
just because something can be done does not mean it should be done as
well... 


 


Regards


      Sebastian


 


P.S.: Currently in the US for a conference, getting reminded how shitty
GSM/LTE can be, heck the conference WiFi (with 25K attendees) is more
responsive than GSM... I am sure 5G might be better, but my phone is LTE
only...


[RR] Welcome to the “club”!  We in the US have been dealing with this for
over 30 years … why you ask???? ... answer … CDMA and the IPR behind it!  It
was and still is “all about the money!”. My phone has 5G and when download
rates plummet to the floor, all I have to do is look at the top of the
display, and lo and behold … I’m on 5G!!! If you believe 5G is going to be
better, I have a bridge for you that “is going to be soooo much better” JJJ




      All good explanations for what I see, yet this is happening in the
capital... (but truth be told, when I bought this phone I did not pay much
attention to which bands it was suited for, it is not impossible that it at
least partly my phone's fault that I am connecting with EDGE speeds, quite
the throw-back to the 2000s ;) but back then EDGE was indeed cutting edge). 


About that bridge, I hope this is in NY city?











Regards


      Sebastian







 


RR


 


 


 


 

 


Jason





  _____  



Nnagain mailing list


Nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net


https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/nnagain






  _____  



Nnagain mailing list


Nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net


https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/nnagain





  _____  



Nnagain mailing list


Nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net


https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/nnagain






  _____  



Nnagain mailing list


Nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net


https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/nnagain

-- 
Sent from my Android device with K-9 Mail. Please excuse my brevity.


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Re: [NNagain] The rise and fall of the 90's telecom bubble

[Olivier MJ Crépin-Leblond]

[-- Attachment #1: Type: text/plain, Size: 6484 bytes --]

Hello all,

I have watched this discussion flourish but don't quite understand the 
issues with 3G, 4G/LTE and 5G which you are relating here.
It seems to me more a problem of the carrier you are using than the 
technology itself as I have been in plenty of locations in the world 
with blazingly fast LTE and now 5G.
And then, what does this have to do with Network Neutrality? Excuse my 
confusion but I just cannot put 2 and 2 together.
Kindest regards,

Olivier

On 16/11/2023 18:02, Dick Roy via Nnagain wrote:
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> *From:*Sebastian Moeller [mailto:moeller0@gmx.de]
> *Sent:* Thursday, November 16, 2023 3:02 AM
> *To:* Network Neutrality is back! Let´s make the technical aspects 
> heard this time!; Sebastian Moeller via Nnagain; Dick Roy
> *Subject:* Re: [NNagain] The rise and fall of the 90's telecom bubble
>
> Update, mmmh,
>
> Virginia is apparently not only for 'lovers' but also for LTE, along 
> the trip with the silver line to Dulles, my phone reported 4G, aka 
> LTE, while in downtown DC EDGE-only it was...
>
> */[RR] You are really lucky!  It could have said “5G” in which case 
> you’d have been down to 19kbps 1980 modem rates! /**/JJ/**//*
>
>
>
> Regards
>          Sebsstian
>
> On 14 November 2023 13:06:39 CET, Sebastian Moeller via Nnagain 
> <nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:
>
>     Hi Richard,
>
>         On Nov 13, 2023, at 16:08, Dick Roy via Nnagain
>         <nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote: -----Original
>         Message----- From: Nnagain
>         [mailto:nnagain-bounces@lists.bufferbloat.net] On Behalf Of
>         Sebastian Moeller via Nnagain Sent: Monday, November 13, 2023
>         6:15 AM To: Network Neutrality is back! Let´s make the
>         technical aspects heard this time! Cc: Sebastian Moeller
>         Subject: Re: [NNagain] The rise and fall of the 90's telecom
>         bubble Hi Jason,
>
>             On Nov 13, 2023, at 08:54, Livingood, Jason via Nnagain
>             <nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:
>
>                 Would love to spend some time thinking together about
>                 what a smart manufacturing system would look like in
>                 terms of connectivity, latency, compute availability,
>                 anything that occurs to you. I know a guy who does
>                 devops for factories, and he has amazing stories --
>                 might be good to make that connection as well.
>
>             One of the L4S (low latency, low loss, scalable
>             throughput) demos that Nokia did at a recent IETF
>             hackathon showed a simulated 5G access network to do low
>             latency remote control of cranes in an industrial port
>             facility. It seemed like one of their points was that you
>             could remotely operate cargo container movements with the
>             crane via a remote workforce over a low delay network
>             connection - even with fairly limited bandwidth (they’d
>             adjust the throughput down to just a few hundred kbps).
>             While they did not say much more, I could envision a port
>             operator being able to gain more efficiency by enabling a
>             skilled operator to control cranes at several ports around
>             the world on an as-needed basis (vs. being based in 1 port
>             and having some downtime or low utilization of their
>             skills/training), even from the comfort of home.
>
>               I would stop doing business with such ports... there
>         clearly are accidents (or sabotage/jamming) just waiting to
>         happen using wireless connections for such use-cases... Yes, I
>         understand that that is what Nokia sells, so everything looks
>         like a nail to them, but really "caveat emptor", just because
>         something can be done does not mean it should be done as
>         well... Regards       Sebastian P.S.: Currently in the US for
>         a conference, getting reminded how shitty GSM/LTE can be, heck
>         the conference WiFi (with 25K attendees) is more responsive
>         than GSM... I am sure 5G might be better, but my phone is LTE
>         only... [RR] Welcome to the “club”!  We in the US have been
>         dealing with this for over 30 years … why you ask???? ...
>         answer … CDMA and the IPR behind it!  It was and still is “all
>         about the money!”. My phone has 5G and when download rates
>         plummet to the floor, all I have to do is look at the top of
>         the display, and lo and behold … I’m on 5G!!! If you believe
>         5G is going to be better, I have a bridge for you that “is
>         going to be soooo much better” JJJ
>
>           All good explanations for what I see, yet this is happening
>     in the capital... (but truth be told, when I bought this phone I
>     did not pay much attention to which bands it was suited for, it is
>     not impossible that it at least partly my phone's fault that I am
>     connecting with EDGE speeds, quite the throw-back to the 2000s ;)
>     but back then EDGE was indeed cutting edge). About that bridge, I
>     hope this is in NY city? Regards       Sebastian
>
>         RR
>
>             Jason
>
>             ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>             Nnagain mailing list Nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net
>             https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/nnagain
>
>         ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>         Nnagain mailing list Nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net
>         https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/nnagain
>
>         ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>         Nnagain mailing list Nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net
>         https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/nnagain
>
>     ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>     Nnagain mailing list Nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net
>     https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/nnagain
>
> -- 
> Sent from my Android device with K-9 Mail. Please excuse my brevity.
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> Nnagain mailing list
> Nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net
> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/nnagain

-- 
Olivier MJ Crépin-Leblond, PhD
http://www.gih.com/ocl.html

[-- Attachment #2: Type: text/html, Size: 17175 bytes --]

Re: [NNagain] The rise and fall of the 90's telecom bubble

[Dick Roy]

[-- Attachment #1: Type: text/plain, Size: 6706 bytes --]

 

 

  _____  

From: Nnagain [mailto:nnagain-bounces@lists.bufferbloat.net] On Behalf Of
Olivier MJ Crépin-Leblond via Nnagain
Sent: Thursday, November 16, 2023 9:21 AM
To: nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net
Cc: Olivier MJ Crépin-Leblond
Subject: Re: [NNagain] The rise and fall of the 90's telecom bubble

 

Hello all,

I have watched this discussion flourish but don't quite understand the
issues with 3G, 4G/LTE and 5G which you are relating here.
It seems to me more a problem of the carrier you are using than the
technology itself as I have been in plenty of locations in the world with
blazingly fast LTE and now 5G.

[RR] If you have a concrete definition of “5G”, I’d love to hear it.  Here
in the US, 5G is nothing more than hype at present, which is exactly why the
carriers are “giving it away for free”.  It’s really hard to sell
“vaporware” to a discerning public.  Just look at the class action lawsuit
filed by Koreans against all the major Korean carriers for false advertising
on their “5G” rollouts!  


And then, what does this have to do with Network Neutrality? 

[RR] Yes, we digressed on this thread :-):-):-)

Excuse my confusion but I just cannot put 2 and 2 together.

[RR] It’s because of the units problem … hard to “add apples and oranges” as
we say!


Kindest regards,

Olivier

On 16/11/2023 18:02, Dick Roy via Nnagain wrote:

 

 


  _____  


From: Sebastian Moeller [mailto:moeller0@gmx.de] 
Sent: Thursday, November 16, 2023 3:02 AM
To: Network Neutrality is back! Let´s make the technical aspects heard this
time!; Sebastian Moeller via Nnagain; Dick Roy
Subject: Re: [NNagain] The rise and fall of the 90's telecom bubble

 

Update, mmmh,

Virginia is apparently not only for 'lovers' but also for LTE, along the
trip with the silver line to Dulles, my phone reported 4G, aka LTE, while in
downtown DC EDGE-only it was...

[RR] You are really lucky!  It could have said “5G” in which case you’d have
been down to 19kbps 1980 modem rates! :-):-)



Regards
         Sebsstian

 

On 14 November 2023 13:06:39 CET, Sebastian Moeller via Nnagain
<mailto:nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net> <nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net>
wrote:

Hi Richard,
 
 
 

On Nov 13, 2023, at 16:08, Dick Roy via Nnagain
<mailto:nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net> <nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net>
wrote:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
-----Original Message-----
 
From: Nnagain [mailto:nnagain-bounces@lists.bufferbloat.net] On Behalf Of
Sebastian Moeller via Nnagain
 
Sent: Monday, November 13, 2023 6:15 AM
 
To: Network Neutrality is back! Let´s make the technical aspects heard this
time!
 
Cc: Sebastian Moeller
 
Subject: Re: [NNagain] The rise and fall of the 90's telecom bubble
 
 
 
Hi Jason,
 
 
 
 

On Nov 13, 2023, at 08:54, Livingood, Jason via Nnagain
<mailto:nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net> <nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net>
wrote:

Would love to spend some time thinking together about what a smart
manufacturing system would look like in terms of connectivity, latency,
compute availability, anything that occurs to you. I know a guy who does
devops for factories, and he has amazing stories -- might be good to make
that connection as well. 

 
 
One of the L4S (low latency, low loss, scalable throughput) demos that Nokia
did at a recent IETF hackathon showed a simulated 5G access network to do
low latency remote control of cranes in an industrial port facility. It
seemed like one of their points was that you could remotely operate cargo
container movements with the crane via a remote workforce over a low delay
network connection - even with fairly limited bandwidth (they’d adjust the
throughput down to just a few hundred kbps).
 
 
 
While they did not say much more, I could envision a port operator being
able to gain more efficiency by enabling a skilled operator to control
cranes at several ports around the world on an as-needed basis (vs. being
based in 1 port and having some downtime or low utilization of their
skills/training), even from the comfort of home.

 
 
 
 
      I would stop doing business with such ports... there clearly are
accidents (or sabotage/jamming) just waiting to happen using wireless
connections for such use-cases... Yes, I understand that that is what Nokia
sells, so everything looks like a nail to them, but really "caveat emptor",
just because something can be done does not mean it should be done as
well... 
 
 
 
Regards
 
      Sebastian
 
 
 
P.S.: Currently in the US for a conference, getting reminded how shitty
GSM/LTE can be, heck the conference WiFi (with 25K attendees) is more
responsive than GSM... I am sure 5G might be better, but my phone is LTE
only...
 
[RR] Welcome to the “club”!  We in the US have been dealing with this for
over 30 years … why you ask???? ... answer … CDMA and the IPR behind it!  It
was and still is “all about the money!”. My phone has 5G and when download
rates plummet to the floor, all I have to do is look at the top of the
display, and lo and behold … I’m on 5G!!! If you believe 5G is going to be
better, I have a bridge for you that “is going to be soooo much better” JJJ

 
 
      All good explanations for what I see, yet this is happening in the
capital... (but truth be told, when I bought this phone I did not pay much
attention to which bands it was suited for, it is not impossible that it at
least partly my phone's fault that I am connecting with EDGE speeds, quite
the throw-back to the 2000s ;) but back then EDGE was indeed cutting edge). 
 
About that bridge, I hope this is in NY city?
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Regards
 
      Sebastian
 
 
 

 
 
RR
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
Jason
 
 





  _____  



 
 
Nnagain mailing list
 
Nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net
 
https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/nnagain

 
 





  _____  



 
 
Nnagain mailing list
 
Nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net
 
https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/nnagain
 
 





  _____  



 
 
Nnagain mailing list
 
Nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net
 
https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/nnagain

 
 





  _____  



 
 
Nnagain mailing list
 
Nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net
 
https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/nnagain

-- 
Sent from my Android device with K-9 Mail. Please excuse my brevity.






_______________________________________________
Nnagain mailing list
Nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net
https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/nnagain





-- 
Olivier MJ Crépin-Leblond, PhD
http://www.gih.com/ocl.html

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Re: [NNagain] The rise and fall of the 90's telecom bubble

[Frantisek Borsik]

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Sorry to digress even further, but I love bridges and this is such an
amazing brochure, about bridges over Hudson in New York State 😇

https://nysba.ny.gov - should be accessible here, but can't open it
now...which is strange.




All the best,

Frank

Frantisek (Frank) Borsik



https://www.linkedin.com/in/frantisekborsik

Signal, Telegram, WhatsApp: +421919416714

iMessage, mobile: +420775230885

Skype: casioa5302ca

frantisek.borsik@gmail.com


On Thu, Nov 16, 2023 at 6:40 PM Dick Roy via Nnagain <
nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:

>
>
>
> ------------------------------
>
> *From:* Nnagain [mailto:nnagain-bounces@lists.bufferbloat.net] *On Behalf
> Of *Olivier MJ Crépin-Leblond via Nnagain
> *Sent:* Thursday, November 16, 2023 9:21 AM
> *To:* nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net
> *Cc:* Olivier MJ Crépin-Leblond
> *Subject:* Re: [NNagain] The rise and fall of the 90's telecom bubble
>
>
>
> Hello all,
>
> I have watched this discussion flourish but don't quite understand the
> issues with 3G, 4G/LTE and 5G which you are relating here.
> It seems to me more a problem of the carrier you are using than the
> technology itself as I have been in plenty of locations in the world with
> blazingly fast LTE and now 5G.
>
> *[RR] If you have a concrete definition of “5G”, I’d love to hear it.
> Here in the US, 5G is nothing more than hype at present, which is exactly
> why the carriers are “giving it away for free”.  It’s really hard to sell
> “vaporware” to a discerning public.  Just look at the class action lawsuit
> filed by Koreans against all the major Korean carriers for false
> advertising on their “5G” rollouts!  *
>
>
> And then, what does this have to do with Network Neutrality?
>
> *[RR] Yes, we digressed on this thread **JJJ*
>
> Excuse my confusion but I just cannot put 2 and 2 together.
>
> *[RR] It’s because of the units problem … hard to “add apples and oranges”
> as we say!*
>
>
> Kindest regards,
>
> Olivier
>
> On 16/11/2023 18:02, Dick Roy via Nnagain wrote:
>
>
>
>
> ------------------------------
>
> *From:* Sebastian Moeller [mailto:moeller0@gmx.de <moeller0@gmx.de>]
> *Sent:* Thursday, November 16, 2023 3:02 AM
> *To:* Network Neutrality is back! Let´s make the technical aspects heard
> this time!; Sebastian Moeller via Nnagain; Dick Roy
> *Subject:* Re: [NNagain] The rise and fall of the 90's telecom bubble
>
>
>
> Update, mmmh,
>
> Virginia is apparently not only for 'lovers' but also for LTE, along the
> trip with the silver line to Dulles, my phone reported 4G, aka LTE, while
> in downtown DC EDGE-only it was...
>
> *[RR] You are really lucky!  It could have said “5G” in which case you’d
> have been down to 19kbps 1980 modem rates! **JJ*
>
>
>
> Regards
>          Sebsstian
>
>
>
> On 14 November 2023 13:06:39 CET, Sebastian Moeller via Nnagain
> <nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net> <nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:
>
> Hi Richard,
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> On Nov 13, 2023, at 16:08, Dick Roy via Nnagain <nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net> <nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
>
>
>
> From: Nnagain [mailto:nnagain-bounces@lists.bufferbloat.net <nnagain-bounces@lists.bufferbloat.net>] On Behalf Of Sebastian Moeller via Nnagain
>
>
>
> Sent: Monday, November 13, 2023 6:15 AM
>
>
>
> To: Network Neutrality is back! Let´s make the technical aspects heard this time!
>
>
>
> Cc: Sebastian Moeller
>
>
>
> Subject: Re: [NNagain] The rise and fall of the 90's telecom bubble
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Hi Jason,
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> On Nov 13, 2023, at 08:54, Livingood, Jason via Nnagain <nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net> <nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:
>
> Would love to spend some time thinking together about what a smart manufacturing system would look like in terms of connectivity, latency, compute availability, anything that occurs to you. I know a guy who does devops for factories, and he has amazing stories -- might be good to make that connection as well.
>
>
>
>
>
> One of the L4S (low latency, low loss, scalable throughput) demos that Nokia did at a recent IETF hackathon showed a simulated 5G access network to do low latency remote control of cranes in an industrial port facility. It seemed like one of their points was that you could remotely operate cargo container movements with the crane via a remote workforce over a low delay network connection - even with fairly limited bandwidth (they’d adjust the throughput down to just a few hundred kbps).
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> While they did not say much more, I could envision a port operator being able to gain more efficiency by enabling a skilled operator to control cranes at several ports around the world on an as-needed basis (vs. being based in 1 port and having some downtime or low utilization of their skills/training), even from the comfort of home.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>       I would stop doing business with such ports... there clearly are accidents (or sabotage/jamming) just waiting to happen using wireless connections for such use-cases... Yes, I understand that that is what Nokia sells, so everything looks like a nail to them, but really "caveat emptor", just because something can be done does not mean it should be done as well...
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Regards
>
>
>
>       Sebastian
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> P.S.: Currently in the US for a conference, getting reminded how shitty GSM/LTE can be, heck the conference WiFi (with 25K attendees) is more responsive than GSM... I am sure 5G might be better, but my phone is LTE only...
>
>
>
> [RR] Welcome to the “club”!  We in the US have been dealing with this for over 30 years … why you ask???? ... answer … CDMA and the IPR behind it!  It was and still is “all about the money!”. My phone has 5G and when download rates plummet to the floor, all I have to do is look at the top of the display, and lo and behold … I’m on 5G!!! If you believe 5G is going to be better, I have a bridge for you that “is going to be soooo much better” JJJ
>
>
>
>
>
>       All good explanations for what I see, yet this is happening in the capital... (but truth be told, when I bought this phone I did not pay much attention to which bands it was suited for, it is not impossible that it at least partly my phone's fault that I am connecting with EDGE speeds, quite the throw-back to the 2000s ;) but back then EDGE was indeed cutting edge).
>
>
>
> About that bridge, I hope this is in NY city?
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Regards
>
>
>
>       Sebastian
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> RR
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Jason
>
>
>
>
>
>
> ------------------------------
>
>
>
>
>
> Nnagain mailing list
>
>
>
> Nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net
>
>
>
> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/nnagain
>
>
>
>
>
>
> ------------------------------
>
>
>
>
>
> Nnagain mailing list
>
>
>
> Nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net
>
>
>
> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/nnagain
>
>
>
>
>
>
> ------------------------------
>
>
>
>
>
> Nnagain mailing list
>
>
>
> Nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net
>
>
>
> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/nnagain
>
>
>
>
>
>
> ------------------------------
>
>
>
>
>
> Nnagain mailing list
>
>
>
> Nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net
>
>
>
> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/nnagain
>
> --
> Sent from my Android device with K-9 Mail. Please excuse my brevity.
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
>
> Nnagain mailing list
>
> Nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net
>
> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/nnagain
>
>
>
> --
>
> Olivier MJ Crépin-Leblond, PhD
>
> http://www.gih.com/ocl.html
>
> _______________________________________________
> Nnagain mailing list
> Nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net
> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/nnagain
>

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Re: [NNagain] The rise and fall of the 90's telecom bubble

[odlyzko]

Dave Taht's question about all the redundant fiber that
was put down in the telecom bubble is a very interesting
one.  It would be nice if some folks on the list could
provide some solid information, even if only for one
large carrier.

My impression, from communications with various folks,
is that much of that fiber from around 2000 was never
lit.  The reason is that better fiber came on the market.
However, what was used (at least in some cases, again,
this is something I would love to get real data on) was
that some of the empty conduits that were put down then
were used to shoot the new generations of fiber through.
(It was quite common for carriers to put down 4 conduits,
and only pull fiber through one of them, leaving the
other 3 for later use.)

Concerning the Doug O'Laughlin post that Dave cites,
it is very good.  For more on the myth of "Internet
doubling every 100 days," my paper "Bubbles, gullibility,
and other challenges for economics, psychology, sociology,
and information sciences" published in First Monday in
Sept. 2010,

    https://firstmonday.org/ojs/index.php/fm/article/view/3142/2603

But O'Laughlin is too hard on Global Crossing, for example,
when he says it "was essentially a fundraising scheme looking
for a problem."  Global Crossing had a real business plan,
it was the first transatlantic cable that was not built by
consortia of incumbent telcos, and it planned to take
advantage of the rising demand for transmission by offering
capacity to new players, who would otherwise be gouged by
incumbents.  (It did get into accounting shenanigans later
on, as competition arose, but that was later.)  What is
most interesting is that their business plan was based
on an assumption of demand about doubling each year (which
is what was taking place), not doubling every 100 days.
(This I learned when I was consulted on some of the
litigation after the telecom crash, but by now the
information is publicly available.)  What killed them
is that their assumption that it would be difficult for
others to get the (special undersea) fiber, the cable-laying
ships, the permits, ..., turned out to be wrong, and so
a slew of competitors, inspired by the myth of astronomical
growth rates, came on the scene.  (Global Crossing's expansion
into terrestrial fiber networks was also a major contributor.)

One of the astounding observations is that while Global
Crossing was assuming 100% annual growth rate in traffic,
the industry as a whole (as well as the press, the FCC,
and so on) were talking of 1,000% growth rates.  And the
only observer that I was able to find who noted this in
print was George Gilder, who drew the wrong conclusion
from this!  (Details are in the paper cited above.)

Andrew

P.S.  Some interesting materials from telecom bubble era
are available at

     https://www-users.cse.umn.edu/~odlyzko/isources/index.html