From mboxrd@z Thu Jan 1 00:00:00 1970 Return-Path: Received: from mail-oo1-f43.google.com (mail-oo1-f43.google.com [209.85.161.43]) (using TLSv1.2 with cipher ECDHE-RSA-AES128-GCM-SHA256 (128/128 bits)) (No client certificate requested) by lists.bufferbloat.net (Postfix) with ESMTPS id 3A6D93CB39 for ; Sun, 15 Oct 2023 23:33:51 -0400 (EDT) Received: by mail-oo1-f43.google.com with SMTP id 006d021491bc7-581b6b93bd1so315929eaf.1 for ; Sun, 15 Oct 2023 20:33:51 -0700 (PDT) X-Google-DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=1e100.net; s=20230601; t=1697427230; x=1698032030; h=cc:to:subject:message-id:date:from:in-reply-to:references :mime-version:x-gm-message-state:from:to:cc:subject:date:message-id :reply-to; bh=TxBAYF3raqimpYS0h9Gj4xz90IC/xDQOrZP05838fq8=; b=vaISdbVlEEt5P3Spbgdxy6FwruShOlddfNPGpeI21Ksn6I2Na20ZMvxrn8SFI1+L8M paz7McFx+cEdFmJLqH9iAMgoWcLzWAuyCqe/bDTcZo6MmTHoipBEgAkB1yOc62WRYL+L kuTlyIBwBHkoyLN3pCP6pNFh0i4uPzpgrEdwgUZAcd8B8+pqNXs3pl1u9yovgipLdIlX dOpZ5Ff+SuBOKTbcb6rD0hGNvDBJqXadeE8Hgsz8c5yMixUWxXrHhj9ueIHVRNulFwL2 nUcJW7Wlfg9sp5z2RNK44VEfLKxGCzh+AGYAnwYi7tckHHKgIpghg+Ad52I6xX8D2Tjl 9biQ== X-Gm-Message-State: AOJu0Yxyz/DCs2PvaZdK4h9x7eyHtFyVJC5aBUMORxIlyMEvXMky9V7F 222wRPpR/gP61zYBr3w75d33K/trqJY= X-Google-Smtp-Source: AGHT+IHDnyw4Lc1e9aUK0PVxSpMFB8GaOaGtiC6pS52TuRfooWER0bYn+EN01NQ4w6oMKk7HwqqrwA== X-Received: by 2002:a05:6870:5ba6:b0:1dd:8579:57bb with SMTP id em38-20020a0568705ba600b001dd857957bbmr39426001oab.49.1697427229366; Sun, 15 Oct 2023 20:33:49 -0700 (PDT) Received: from mail-oi1-f171.google.com (mail-oi1-f171.google.com. [209.85.167.171]) by smtp.gmail.com with ESMTPSA id lb4-20020a05687c330400b001e5dd8a29c6sm1238415oac.29.2023.10.15.20.33.48 for (version=TLS1_3 cipher=TLS_AES_128_GCM_SHA256 bits=128/128); Sun, 15 Oct 2023 20:33:48 -0700 (PDT) Received: by mail-oi1-f171.google.com with SMTP id 5614622812f47-3ae2ec1a222so2568689b6e.2 for ; Sun, 15 Oct 2023 20:33:48 -0700 (PDT) X-Received: by 2002:a05:6808:1820:b0:3a9:c2fe:335c with SMTP id bh32-20020a056808182000b003a9c2fe335cmr46299905oib.52.1697427227942; Sun, 15 Oct 2023 20:33:47 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 References: In-Reply-To: From: Matthew Petach Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2023 20:33:35 -0700 X-Gmail-Original-Message-ID: Message-ID: To: Dave Taht Cc: Tom Beecher , =?UTF-8?Q?Network_Neutrality_is_back=21_Let=C2=B4s_make_the_technical_aspect?= =?UTF-8?Q?s_heard_this_time=21?= , NANOG Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="000000000000f428bd0607cd1287" X-Mailman-Approved-At: Mon, 16 Oct 2023 03:16:32 -0400 Subject: Re: [NNagain] transit and peering costs projections X-BeenThere: nnagain@lists.bufferbloat.net X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.20 Precedence: list List-Id: =?utf-8?q?Network_Neutrality_is_back!_Let=C2=B4s_make_the_technical_aspects_heard_this_time!?= List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2023 03:33:51 -0000 --000000000000f428bd0607cd1287 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable On Sun, Oct 15, 2023 at 9:47=E2=80=AFAM Dave Taht wro= te: > [...] > The three forms of traffic I care most about are voip, gaming, and > videoconferencing, which are rewarding to have at lower latencies. > When I was a kid, we had switched phone networks, and while the sound > quality was poorer than today, the voice latency cross-town was just > like "being there". Nowadays we see 500+ms latencies for this kind of > traffic. > When you were a kid, the cost of voice calls across town were completely dwarfed by the cost of long distance calls, which were insane by today's standards. But let's take the $10/month local-only dialtone fee from 1980; a typical household would spend less than 600 minutes a month on local calls, for a per-minute cost for local calls of about 1.6 cents/minute. (data from https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=3Dumn.319510029171372&seq= =3D75 ) Each call would use up a single trunk line--today, we would think of that as an ISDN BRI at 64Kbits. Doing the math, that meant on average you were using 64Kbit/sec*600minutes*60sec/min or 2304000Kbit per month (2.3 Gbit/month). A 1Mbit/sec circuit, running constantly, has a capacity to transfer 2592Gbit/month. So, a typical household used about 1/1000th of a 1Mbit/sec circuit, on average, but paid about $10/month for that. That works out to a comparative cost of $10,000/Mbit/month in revenue from those local voice calls. You can afford to put in a *LOT* of "just like "being there"" infrastructure when you're charging your customers the equivalent of $10,000/month per Mbit to talk across town. Remember, this isn't adding in any long-distance charges= , this is *just* for you to ring up Aunt Maude on the other side of town to ask when the bake sale starts on Saturday. So, that revenue is going into covering the costs of backhaul to the local IXP, and to your ports on the local IXP, to put it into modern terms. > As to how to make calls across town work that well again, cost-wise, I > do not know, but the volume of traffic that would be better served by > these interconnects quite low, respective to the overall gains in > lower latency experiences for them. > If you can figure out how to charge your customers equivalent pricing again today, you'll have no trouble getting those calls across town to work that well again. Unfortunately, the consumers have gotten used to much lower prices, and it's really, really hard to stuff the cat back into the genie bottle again, to bludgeon a dead metaphor. Not to mention customers have gotten much more used to the smaller world we live in today, where everything IP is considered "local", and you won't find many willing customers to pay a higher price for communicating with far-away websites. Good luck getting customers to sign up for split contracts, with one price for talking to the local IXP in town, and a different, more expensive price to send traffic outside the city to some far-away place like Prineville, OR! ;) I think we often forget just how much of a massive inversion the communications industry has undergone; back in the 80s, when I started working in networking, everything was DS0 voice channels, and data was just a strange side business that nobody in the telcos really understood or wanted to sell to. At the time, the volume of money being raked in from those DS0/VGE channels was mammoth compared to the data networking side; we weren't even a rounding error. But as the roles reversed and the pyramid inverted, the data networking costs didn't rise to meet the voice costs (no matter how hard the telcos tried to push VGE-mileage-based pricing models! -- see https://transition.fcc.gov/form477/FVS/definitions_fvs.pdf) Instead, once VoIP became possible, the high-revenue voice circuits got pillaged, with more and more of the traffic being pulled off over to the cheaper data side, until even internally the telcos saw the writing on the wall, and started to move their trunked voice traffic over to IP as well. But as we moved away from the SS7-based signalling, with explicit information about the locality of the destination exchange giving way to more generic IP datagrams, the distinction of "local" versus "long-distance" became less meaningful, outside the regulatory tariff domain. When everything is IP datagrams, making a call from you to a person on the other side of town may just as easily be exchanged at an exchange point 1,000 miles away as it would be locally in town, depending upon where your carrier and your friend's carriers happen to be network co-incident. So, for the consumer, the prices go drastically down, but in return, we accept potentially higher latencies to exchange traffic that in earlier days would have been kept strictly local. Long-winded way of saying "yes, you can go back to how it was when you were a kid--but can you get all your customers to agree to go back to those pricing models as well?" ^_^; Thanks! Matt > -- > Oct 30: > https://netdevconf.info/0x17/news/the-maestro-and-the-music-bof.html > Dave T=C3=A4ht CSO, LibreQos > --000000000000f428bd0607cd1287 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable


=
On Sun, Oct 15, 2023 at 9:47=E2=80=AF= AM Dave Taht <dave.taht@gmail.com= > wrote:
[...= ]
The three forms of traffic I care most about are voip, gaming, and
videoconferencing, which are rewarding to have at lower latencies.
When I was a kid, we had switched phone networks, and while the sound
quality was poorer than today, the voice latency cross-town was just
like "being there". Nowadays we see 500+ms latencies for this kin= d of
traffic.

When you were a kid, the cost = of voice calls across town were completely=C2=A0
dwarfed=C2=A0by = the cost of long distance calls, which were insane by today's=C2=A0
standards.=C2=A0 But let's take the $10/month local-only dialton= e=C2=A0fee from 1980;=C2=A0
a typical household would spend less = than 600 minutes a month on local calls,=C2=A0
for a per-minute c= ost for local calls of about 1.6 cents/minute.
(data from=C2=A0https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=3Dumn.319510029171372&s= eq=3D75 )

Each call would use up a single trun= k line--today, we would think of that as an
ISDN BRI at 64Kbits.= =C2=A0 Doing the math, that meant on average you were using=C2=A0
64Kbit/sec*600minutes*60sec/min or 2304000Kbit per month (2.3 Gbit/month).=

A 1Mbit/sec circuit, running constantly, has a ca= pacity to transfer 2592Gbit/month.
So, a typical household used a= bout 1/1000th of a 1Mbit/sec circuit, on average,=C2=A0
but paid = about $10/month for that.=C2=A0 That works out to a comparative cost of=C2= =A0
$10,000/Mbit/month in revenue from those local voice calls.

You can afford to put in a *LOT* of "just like= "being there"" infrastructure when
=C2=A0you'= re charging your customers the equivalent of $10,000/month per Mbit to=C2= =A0
talk across town.=C2=A0 Remember, this isn't adding in an= y long-distance charges,
this is *just* for you to ring up Aunt M= aude on the other side of town to ask when=C2=A0
the bake sale st= arts on Saturday.=C2=A0 So, that revenue is going into covering=C2=A0
=
the costs of backhaul to the local IXP, and to your ports on the local= IXP,=C2=A0
to put it into modern terms.
=C2=A0
As to how to make calls across town work that well again, cost-wise, I
do not know, but the volume of traffic that would be better served by
these interconnects quite low, respective to the overall gains in
lower latency experiences for them.

If = you can figure out how to charge your customers equivalent pricing=C2=A0
again today, you'll have no trouble getting those calls across = town to
work that well again.
Unfortunately, the consum= ers have gotten used to much lower=C2=A0
prices, and it's rea= lly, really hard to stuff the cat back into the=C2=A0
genie bottl= e again, to bludgeon a dead metaphor.
Not to mention customers ha= ve gotten much more used to the=C2=A0
smaller world we live in to= day, where everything IP is considered "local",=C2=A0
a= nd you won't find many willing customers to pay a higher price for=C2= =A0
communicating with far-away websites.=C2=A0 Good luck getting= customers=C2=A0
to sign up for split contracts, with one price f= or talking to the local IXP=C2=A0
in town, and a different, more = expensive price to send traffic outside=C2=A0
the city to some fa= r-away place like Prineville, OR!=C2=A0 ;)

=C2=A0I= think we often forget just how much of a massive inversion the=C2=A0
=
communications industry has undergone; back in the 80s, when=C2=A0
I started working in networking, everything was DS0 voice channels,= =C2=A0
and data was just a strange side business that nobody in t= he telcos=C2=A0
really understood or wanted to sell to.=C2=A0 At = the time, the volume of money=C2=A0
being raked in from those DS0= /VGE channels was mammoth compared=C2=A0
to the data networking s= ide; we weren't even a rounding error.=C2=A0 But as the=C2=A0
roles reversed and the pyramid inverted, the data networking costs didn= 9;t
rise to meet the voice costs (no matter how hard the telcos t= ried to push
VGE-mileage-based pricing models!=C2=A0
= Instead, once VoIP became possible, the high-revenue voice circuits=C2=A0
got pillaged, with more and more of the traffic being pulled off o= ver to=C2=A0
the cheaper data side, until even internally the tel= cos saw the writing=C2=A0
on the wall, and started to move their = trunked voice traffic over to IP=C2=A0
as well.
But as = we moved away from the SS7-based signalling, with explicit=C2=A0
= information about the locality of the destination exchange giving way=C2=A0=
to more generic IP datagrams, the distinction of "local&quo= t; versus "long-distance"=C2=A0
became less meaningful,= outside the regulatory tariff domain.=C2=A0=C2=A0
When everythin= g is IP datagrams, making a call from you to a person on=C2=A0
th= e other side of town may just as easily be exchanged at an exchange point= =C2=A0
1,000 miles away as it would be locally in town, depending= upon where your=C2=A0
carrier and your friend's carriers hap= pen to be network co-incident.=C2=A0 So, for=C2=A0
the consumer, = the prices go drastically down, but in return, we accept=C2=A0
po= tentially higher latencies to exchange traffic that in earlier days would
have been kept strictly local.

Long-winde= d way of saying "yes, you can go back to how it was when=C2=A0
you were a kid--but can you get all your customers to agree to go back= =C2=A0
to those pricing models as well?"=C2=A0 =C2=A0^_^;

Thanks!

Matt

=

--
Oct 30: https://netdevconf.info/= 0x17/news/the-maestro-and-the-music-bof.html
Dave T=C3=A4ht CSO, LibreQos
--000000000000f428bd0607cd1287--