[NNagain] Fwd: The 12 Lies of Telecoms Xmas

Tue Dec 19 14:06:02 EST 2023

Thanks for sharing. That had my 'old man shouting at clouds' vibe, I like it....

On 19 December 2023 16:01:09 CET, Dave Taht via Nnagain <nnagain at lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:
>---------- Forwarded message ---------
>From: Dean Bubley via LinkedIn <newsletters-noreply at linkedin.com>
>Date: Tue, Dec 19, 2023 at 5:05 AM
>Subject: The 12 Lies of Telecoms Xmas
>To: Dave Taht <dave.taht at gmail.com>
>
>
>During 2023, I've lost patience with some of the more outrageous statements…
>͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏  ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏  ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
>͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏  ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏  ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
>͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏  ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏  ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
>͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏  ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏  ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
>͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏  ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏  ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
>͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
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>Analysis and arguments on wireless, telecoms, 5G & the wider futurism
>landscape by @disruptivedean
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>Dean Bubley
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>Tech Industry Analyst & Futurist @ DISRUPTIVE ANALYSIS | Influential
>advisor & speaker with 25yrs+ in Telecoms Strategy, 5G / 6G / Wi-Fi,
>Spectrum, Policy
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>See what others are saying about this topic: Open on Linkedin
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>The 12 Lies of Telecoms Xmas
><https://www.linkedin.com/comm/pulse/12-lies-telecoms-xmas-dean-bubley-rzxbe?lipi=urn%3Ali%3Apage%3Aemail_email_series_follow_newsletter_01%3BfBjUc%2F%2FIRi67xAi2afVUOA%3D%3D&midToken=AQEGzpaL25ruWg&midSig=11qtHdD8fh5X41&trk=eml-email_series_follow_newsletter_01-newsletter_content_preview-0-title_&trkEmail=eml-email_series_follow_newsletter_01-newsletter_content_preview-0-title_-null-1neij~lqccy9om~e6-null-null&eid=1neij-lqccy9om-e6&otpToken=MTAwMjE5ZTExNzJmY2NjZWI1MjkwNWU4NGYxN2U2YjU4Y2NiZDM0NjlmYTQ4YjZkNzdjMzAwNmE0YTUyNWRmOWE1YWNhNGJjNjliNGZlZTRjNDg1YzM1NzIyNTFkOTZiYjQ4MWM0MGNkMTRkNDUxMCwxLDE%3D>
>
>During 2023, I've lost patience with some of the more outrageous statements
>I've been seeing in my industry. There's a growing number of bald-faced
>lies, and I've started calling them out publicly.
>
>Yes, I know that marketing and lobbying requires a measure of hype,
>exaggeration and glass-half-full predictions and estimations. There are
>areas where statistics or semantics can be skewed, but may contain a grain
>of fact.
>
>Some problems lie with simplifications or lack of understanding made by
>non-experts. While politicians are generalists and can sometimes be
>excused, the wide use by the industry of *economists* to calculate supposed
>costs or benefits of networks is often deeply flawed.
>
>Worse, I see many examples where purveyors of dodgy stats and
>talking-points cite (and amplify) each other's nonsense. You know the sort
>of thing - a laughable analysis of "GDP uplift" from a technology gets
>blended with questionable forecast traffic volumes, then multiplied by
>other flawed numbers to imply huge extra CAPEX or spectrum needs.
>
>Nobody stops to ask users, application developers or enterprises how
>networks in the real world actually work or get deployed, or whether all
>the clever AI, automation and virtualisation we're also hyping might reduce
>the costs.
>
>Few people really look at headline numbers or arguments to see what is
>cherrypicked, misrepresented, show correlation not causation, or just don't
>pass a simple "smell test" for being realistic.
>
>Anyway... here's a dozen of the most egregious falsehoods in telecoms.
>There's plenty more, but this seemed an appropriately festive number to
>list. I'll add some links in the comments as well. Here's to a more honest
>and truthful 2024!
>Lie 1: Autonomous vehicles & robotic surgery need 5G
>
>Let's start with an easy one that long been debunked, although I still hear
>it repeated by some in telecoms or policymaking circles, as well as some
>self-appointed futurists who should know better.
>
>No, AVs don't need 5G, although they may use it for certain functions if
>it's available and inexpensive. All the claims of TB of data created per
>hour are irrelevant - 99.9% never leaves the vehicle. Most of the
>processing & AI inferencing is done onboard. And cloud-driven 5G AVs would
>need perfect coverage and capacity, which doesn't exist - good luck in a
>tunnel, a car-park or a road in a remote region. Or on a highway in a lane
>sandwiched between two trucks.
>
>5G is somewhat more important for remote-driven vehicles where a human
>needs streaming video of the surroundings.
>
>As for robotic surgery - well for a start, most hospital operating theatres
>are Faraday cages deep inside buildings, so they'd need dedicated wireless
>systems. And the remote surgeon - and the robot - are likeliest to use
>fixed broadband and a fibre LAN connection, not wireless.
>
>You remember the video of the banana undergoing "5G surgery"? That was a
>proven lie, with a full analysis by The Verge. It didn't use 5G.
>Lie 2: There is an "investment gap" for broadband networks
>
>2023 has been a year of preposterous lies from lobbyists, some telcos,
>industry groups and even government agencies, trying to concoct arguments
>for new regulations on cloud or content companies funding networks - or
>perhaps more government subsidies. A common refrain is that there is a
>"gap" in funding that needs to be filled by someone else.
>
>The problems are that the majority of investments required for fixed and
>mobile broadband deployments are either:
>
>   -
>
>   Covered by market forces and normal commercial investment plans, helped
>   by existing government funding programmes.
>   -
>
>   Exacerbated by arbitrary or poorly-defined "requirements"
>   -
>
>   Not driven by growth in traffic volumes
>   -
>
>   Based on old or inaccurate metrics and statistics of current network
>   status & investment schemes
>
>My friends at organisations such as Stratix consulting have done a good job
>at debunking some Europe-specific claims. (Link in coments). Let's have
>some more informed & truthful debate in 2024.
>
>Sidenote: some investments needed won't be done by the normal telcos
>anyway. Indoor wireless owners, local FWA, fibre altnets, private networks,
>satellite systems, neutral host & infraco / towerco CAPEX weren't even in
>the discussion - if there *is* a new pot of cash, it's another lie to say
>that legacy telcos are the only or best recipients.
>Lie 3: 5G networks are (or will be) "ubiquitous"
>
>One of the common mistaken assumptions among policymakers and some others
>in telecoms is that 5G networks - and their headline capabilities like
>gigabit speeds and millisecond latencies - will be ubiquitous.
>
>Clearly, that's not the case, and was doubtful from the start of 5G. Rural
>areas, small communities, indoor coverage & capacity, full connectivity on
>railways & trains, industrial zones and others often lack public network
>coverage, even from 4G. Even where there's a 5G logo lit up on a phone,
>that may just be a thin layer of sub-1GHz spectrum or dynamic-shared 4G/5G.
>
>To be fair, this is perhaps more an example of ignorance rather than lying
>in many cases, but it should have been clear to even the least tech-aware
>person by now that the concept is itself proven untrue.
>
>It's also very consequential - application and device developers are the
>ones that have been lied to, as much as end-users. Imagine spending money
>on developing AR/VR game or headset, expecting low-latency 5G everywhere it
>will be used. This type of hype has victims.
>
>It's also quite amusing to see the latest ITU IMT2030 (6G) recommendations
>specify that ubiquity only refers to a defined coverage area, not
>nationwide: "*The term 'ubiquitous' is related to the considered target
>coverage area and is not intended to relate to an entire region or country*".
>Well, that's one way to avoid lying in future - redefine the word itself to
>mean something else that's easier an more convenient.
>Lie 4: Mobile data traffic is growing "exponentially"
>
>Exponential is a mathematical term referring to an accelerating growth
>rate. In almost all cases, mobile data traffic growth is now slowing.
>
>Most predictions suggest it settling down to maybe 20% year-on-year in
>mature markets. And even that is mostly driven by MNO-driven decisions like
>offering FWA fixed wireless services (which have 20x the consumption of
>normal smartphone use), or inappropriate pushing of unlimited plans or
>bundled / zero-rated video.
>
>I still see telco policy people deliberately overestimating traffic
>forecasts, either to make arguments for more spectrum, or when lying about
>so-called "large traffic generators" or risible "fair share" schemes.
>Lie 5: Network traffic is "generated" by content / cloud companies
>
>I've previously written a full LinkedIn post calling out the term "large
>traffic generator" as a clear lie. It's been one of the most-read that I've
>published this year, which presumably implies *I* generated a lot of data
>traffic personally.
>
>The reality is that Internet *users* generate traffic. They request movies,
>play games, scroll timelines, download software updates, and read articles.
>The fact I watch a GB of video traffic from a popular site rather than a
>niche one is irrelevant - although the larger one is more likely to have
>its own CDN.
>
>There's a small amount of "push" data such as autoplay follow-on videos,
>but adverts are usually tolerated as an alternative to fees. It's not a big
>deal - and in any case, network costs are linked to *peak* traffic levels,
>not total volumes.
>Lie 6: "Voice" is the same as "Telephony"
>
>There are 1000s of forms of voice communication. Phone calls are just one
>highly-specified application, with specific behavioural, technical and
>regulatory characteristics. Telephony is
>
>Push-to-talk, in-game chat, karaoke, audioconferences, voice assistants,
>podcasts, audio captioning, Alexa "drop-ins" and many others are not
>telephony.
>
>Generally, telcos don't do "voice" in general. They only do telephony, plus
>a few extra bits like voicemail. A few have their own voice home assistants.
>
>(Historical sidenote: audio streaming using phone networks has been around
>since the 1880s. If you're a telco complaining about "OTT" media content,
>you're 150 years late).
>Lie 7: All Wi-Fi use on smartphones is "offload"
>
>The term "offload" really involves Wi-Fi traffic that would otherwise have
>gone over cellular networks, but an automated systems pushes to Wi-Fi
>instead. It excludes data that the user (or the OS) deliberately selects
>Wi-Fi for.
>
>If I watch a YouTube video on my sofa on my phone via Wi-Fi, that's not
>offload. That's just me using my home broadband.
>
>Maybe only 5% of smartphone Wi-Fi data is genuine offload. And even that
>could translate to a smaller amount over cellular, because both user and
>app-developer choices often mean extra "elasticity" - higher resolution or
>frame-rates, extra usage because it feels free/unmetered and so on.
>Lie 8: Interoperability is always beneficial
>
>Interoperability for infrastructure can be very useful - we all benefit
>from devices that work with wireless or fixed broadband networks, and are
>tested and certified to be compatible with each other.
>
>But interoperability for applications and services is much more mixed. As
>long as users can "multi-home" and have several different calling,
>messaging, social or gaming platforms, it's not necessary to have
>interoperability.
>
>Yes, there can be competition concerns, but that doesn't imply a need to
>regulate for a lowest-common denominator set of features, with a wide array
>of unintended consequences. Interop should be on-demand (especially if
>customers explicitly ask for it), not assumed to be an ideal scenario and
>mandated by regulation.
>
>Yes, I'm thinking of the EU DMA's stupid rules on messaging interop, but
>also a more general argument about all communications apps & services, as
>well as fields like AR/VR/metaverse. There's still a role for proprietary
>network technologies and architectures in some cases too - openness is
>great, but it's wrong to say it should be universal.
>Lie 9: QoS or performance can be guaranteed "End to End"
>
>Almost every time you see the term "end to end", it's a lie, especially in
>reference to network quality or performance.
>
>In reality, nobody controls *all* the components of a network or
>application path, outside very niche and specifically-engineered
>situations. At best, they can oversee and prioritise activity between two
>arbitrary points in the middle.
>
>Think through a videoconference session. It involves at least two networks,
>plus interconnections. Multiple devices, with multiple components like
>processors and memory. A cloud platform and maybe a CDN and 3rd-party
>elements. Maybe a last-metre connection via Wi-Fi or Bluetooth or a USB
>cable. Maybe one user is deep in-building or in a moving vehicle.
>
>End-to-end QoS can be created if there's one network, IT or OT manager in
>charge of a local system. It can be offered on one fibre connection and a
>few boxes, or perhaps across one boundary. But truly end-to-end? Nope.
>Lie 10: "Digital" tech is new, cool & all that matters
>
>Yes, I have a bee in my bonnet about the word "digital". I cringe at
>phrases like "digital transformation", or "digital infrastructure". It's
>like going back to the 1980s and hearing "information superhighway" or
>"multimedia".
>
>We've had digital communications since Morse and the telegraph in the
>1840s. Digital computers since the 1940s. Digital phone switches since the
>1980s. The WWW since the 1990s.
>
>Digital is old.
>
>Don't get me wrong, it's still useful. (Obviously). But so is fire and the
>wheel.
>
>What irks me is that much of the coolest stuff in tech today isn't digital
>- it's quantum, or neuromorphic, or biological, materials-based, analogue
>and many other domains of innovation that don't depend on 1's and 0's.
>
>The new & cool stuff is mostly *Post-Digital*.
>Lie 11: Mobile enables huge CO2 savings
>
>There are many claims that use of mobile (or 5G) leads to huge savings in
>carbon footprint - fewer flights because of videoconferences, wireless
>traffic controls reducing congestion, connected solar panels and batteries,
>and so on.
>
>Most of this is a massive exercise in double, or 10x-counting. If I do a
>videoconference with a client, there's at least 2 access networks,
>interconnects / long-haul fibre, two end-devices, two screens, two cameras,
>lots of chips, a cloud platform, a video app or browsers, mics etc.
>
>Being generous, one of the access networks (probably fixed+WiFi rather than
>mobile anyway) maybe accounts for 5% of the total savings. And only a
>handful of trips are replaced with video, in any case - most video sessions
>are incremental, or replace a lower-energy voice-only call.
>Lie 12: "The data and KPIs prove XYZ"
>
>One of my big campaigns this year has been about the need for good metrics,
>not easy metrics. I've written several posts about it, and an entire report
>for my friends at STL Partners.
>
>In telecoms we get huge volumes of reported data - average network speeds,
>5G coverage, spectrum prices in $/MHz-pop, homes passed, minutes of use, GB
>of data traffic, numbers of messages sent, and myriads more.
>
>The problem is that many of these data points are used because they are
>easy to collect, easy to regulate & have a lot of historical comparisons.
>But they're often useless, or sometimes worse-than-useless.
>
>They get cherrypicked, used out of context, used to "prove" the need for
>policies that they don't actually support, and don't represent the reality
>on the ground.
>
>Take mobile coverage, usually cited as a % of residential population that
>can get a signal outdoors. Yet most will agree that many 5G uses are for
>non-residential applications and locations (eg farms, ports, industrial
>zones), or indoors. And coverage doesn't mean performance or "full 5G"
>capabilities.
>
>Then there are all the many tiers of lies about network data traffic, used
>to "prove" the costs of network CAPEX, energy use, need for taxing
>cloud/content companies, arguing against net neutrality and so on.
>Aggregate traffic is largely irrelevant - in reality costs are driven by
>initial build / coverage area (even at zero traffic) and sometimes peak
>rates. Energy usage isn't linked to traffic mostly, either.
>
>We all know the phrase "lies, damned lies, and statistics". So let's try to
>collect and use better stats in future.
>Conclusion
>
>Yes, this is a bit of a rant. And yes, a lot of people will object to me
>calling them liars. But let's be clear, most of those I'm referring to have
>jobs to do, that sometimes need "messaging" to be massaged.
>
>And I haven't even got onto the dodgy term "OTT", mentioned RCS (no it's
>not SMS2.0), laughed at cryptocurrency-powered "DePIN", called out
>exaggerations about the role of satellite direct-to-device, or ridiculed
>the criticism thrown at shared spectrum, CBRS or private networks.
>
>So if you recognise yourself in this, tell the real telco Pinocchios - the
>lawyers, lobbyists, marketeers and headline-writers - that you're not
>willing to peddle untruths or half-truths in future. Don't let them put
>your nose out of joint, or make it grow longer.
>
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>-- 
>40 years of net history, a couple songs:
>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D9RGX6QFm5E
>Dave Täht CSO, LibreQos

-- 
Sent from my Android device with K-9 Mail. Please excuse my brevity.
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