[Starlink] Fwd: Here is the first edition of the report: Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?

[Vint Cerf]

thanks for sharing this analysis with which I resonate. I doubt that the
LEO constellations will scale to the same extent that ground-based cellular
systems have. However, they will take some traffic. Prices might also be an
issue. Interestingly, video conferencing over the Internet is a substitute
for traditional telephony and comes naturally thanks to the digital nature
of the transmission.

v


On Wed, Jan 29, 2025 at 7:30 AM Hesham ElBakoury via Starlink <
starlink at lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:

>
> ---------- Forwarded message ---------
> From: John Strand <js at strandconsult.dk>
> Date: Wed, Jan 29, 2025, 4:23 AM
> Subject: Here is the first edition of the report: Will LEO Satellite
> Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?
> To: <info at strandconsult.dk>
>
>
> Dear Colleague,
>
>
>
> Here is the first edition of the report: *“Will LEO Satellite
> Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?”*
> The report is a part of a signature series in Strand Consult´s Global
> Project for Business Models for Broadband Cost Recovery
> <https://strandconsult.dk/category/fair-cost-recovery/>.
>
>
>
> This new report offers a comprehensive analysis of the role of Low-Earth
> Orbit (LEO) satellites in the telecommunications industry. It examines the
> advancements in satellite technology, the challenges in achieving service
> parity with terrestrial networks, and the implications for global
> connectivity. It explores the technical, economic, and regulatory factors
> shaping the deployment of Direct-to-Cell satellite services and evaluates
> whether these networks can complement or replace traditional cellular
> infrastructure.
>
>
>
> This report aims to illuminate the forces driving developments in LEO
> satellite networks, the challenges they face, and how these technologies
> will likely shape the telecommunications industry's future. It aims to
> provide inspiration and insights that can be used to frame discussions
> about the trends and transformations affecting connectivity on a global
> scale.
>
>
>
> When reading recent media and comments on various media postings, one can
> quickly get the impression that satellites will replace traditional mobile
> networks. This narrative often simplifies a complex issue, creating the
> perception that satellite technology is a universal solution to global
> connectivity challenges. However, a more pragmatic view reveals that
> satellite networks like those operated by Starlink offer revolutionary
> opportunities but are unlikely to make terrestrial mobile networks
> obsolete. Instead, these technologies will coexist, each serving distinct
> roles in the communication ecosystem.
>
>
>
> There are many mobile telecom operators which fear that low earth orbit
> (LEO) satellite networks like Starlink and others could impact their
> business in a negative way like over the top (OTT) providers. Indeed, there
> is a concern about traffic and revenue moving away from mobile networks to
> providers which do not have the same regulatory obligations or cost
> structure. For example, in some countries, some LEO satellite providers do
> not pay for the use of radio spectrum. These are important issues to
> examine in their short, medium and long term impacts.
>
>
>
> Strand Consult’s global project for Broadband Cost Recovery and Business
> Models <https://strandconsult.dk/category/fair-cost-recovery/> examines
> the challenges for mobile telecom operators to build and run networks and
> the set of solutions to improve return on investment.  A key region
> impacted by LEO satellites is the Caribbean. Strand Consult’s report *“Gigabit
> Caribbean: Closing the Investment Gap in Fixed and Mobile Networks”
> <https://strandconsult.dk/gigabit-caribbean-closing-the-investment-gap-in-fixed-and-mobile-networks/>
> *describes the inherent challenge to deliver return on investment in
> remote areas with limited population and in the face of growing traffic
> from outside providers which contribute zero financially to the local
> economy. LEO satellites may be a double-edged sword in that they may
> provide connectivity in an emergency, but they do not conform to local
> regulatory requirements, nor do they participate locally financially.  The
> issue is also relevant for rural broadband providers in the USA which
> Strand Consult documented in its report “Broadband Cost Recovery: A Study
> of Business Models for 50 Broadband Providers In 24 US States.”
> <https://strandconsult.dk/broadband-cost-recovery-a-study-of-50-broadband-providers-in-24-us-states-new-report-from-strand-consult/>
>
>
>
> *The Satellite Race to Reach the Phone.*
>
>
>
> Among the various players in the Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite market,
> Starlink <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-24-1193A1.pdf>, led
> by Elon Musk’s SpaceX, has emerged as the frontrunner. With a network of
> almost 7,000 satellites operating, 300+ (2nd generation or Gen2)
> satellites have Direct-to-Cell capabilities
> <https://www.theverge.com/2024/11/27/24307394/starlink-spacex-tmobile-direct-to-cell-satellite-fcc-approval?>.
> SpaceX's spectrum regulatory approach outside the U.S. has been criticized
> for not always adhering to local licensing frameworks (e.g., cases in
> India, France, and South Africa). Its reliance on spectrum that local
> regulators have not officially granted can create tensions with governments
> and local telecom providers. Starlink operates a global satellite network
> with thousands of satellites covering areas without always having lawful
> access to the spectrum on which it provides services.
>
>
>
> This is an even more significant challenge regarding the regular cellular
> spectrum used for traditional mobile cellular services licensed and used by
> local telecommunication companies. Thus, it requires, at least, the
> satellite operator to collaborate locally with telco operators who have the
> usage rights of the cellular spectrum of interest. Despite these
> challenges, Starlink’s aggressive strategy and innovative technology have
> placed it light years ahead of competitors like Amazon’s Kuiper
> <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-23-114A1.pdf> and Eutelsat’s
> OneWeb <https://oneweb.net/>. As of January 2025, Amazon's Project Kuiper
> has not yet launched
> <https://techxplore.com/news/2024-07-amazon-kuiper-delays-satellite-timeline.html>
> any operational satellites, including those with Direct-to-Cell (D2C)
> capabilities. The project is still in development, with plans to deploy a
> constellation of 3,236 LEO satellites to provide global broadband coverage.
>
>
>
> One of the most remarkable aspects of Starlink’s success is its ability to
> build a functional global network without initial access to the necessary
> spectrum. This bold approach has drawn comparisons to Jeff Bezos’ Kuiper
> project, with Strand Consult humorously observing that while Bezos is still
> setting up a “burger bar,” Musk is already running an “interstellar
> McDonald’s.
>
> In the report you can read about the companies that are advancing D2C
> connectivity through LEO satellite constellations, aiming to connect
> standard mobile devices directly to satellites.
>
>
>
> Among them, AST SpaceMobile
> <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-24-756A1.pdf> has launched
> five operational satellites, detailed in FCC filings, to deliver 4G and 5G
> services globally, with plans to expand its network with up to 243
> satellites. AST SpaceMobile's advanced phased-array antenna, BlueWalker 3
> <https://ast-science.com/spacemobile-network/bluewalker-3/>, is one of
> the most powerful in the industry required to deliver good quality services
> to unmodified cellular consumer devices. Similarly, Lynk Global
> <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-22-969A1.pdf> has deployed
> satellites to provide coverage in remote areas, emphasizing partnerships
> with telecom operators and regulatory approvals.
>
>
>
> Geespace <https://www.geespace.com/>, part of Geely Technology Group, has
> launched 30 satellites in China and plans to expand to 72 by 2025,
> targeting global broadband and D2C capabilities. The Qianfan ("Thousand
> Sails") constellation
> <https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/china-launches-first-satellites-constellation-rival-starlink-newspaper-reports-2024-08-05/>,
> in intent and capabilities closest to SpaceX, is another Chinese initiative
> that has deployed 54 satellites and aims for over 15,000 by 2030,
> positioning itself as a major player in satellite-based communications. US
> and Chinese initiatives drive significant advancements in D2C technology,
> integrating satellite connectivity into everyday communications and
> addressing global coverage challenges.
>
>
>
> *Some Takeaways.*
>
>
>
> Direct-to-Cell LEO satellite networks face considerable technology hurdles
> in providing services comparable to terrestrial cellular networks.
>
>
>
>    - *They must overcome substantial free-space path loss* and ensure
>    uplink connectivity from low-power mobile devices with omnidirectional
>    antennas.
>    - Cellular devices transmit at low power (typically 23–30 dBm), making
>    it *very challenging for uplink cellular signals* to reach satellites
>    in LEO at 300–1,200 km altitudes, particularly if the cellular device is
>    indoor.
>    - Uplink signals from multiple devices within a satellite beam area
>    can overlap, creating *interference that challenges the satellite’s
>    ability to separate and process individual uplink signals*.
>    - *Must address bandwidth limitations* and efficiently reuse spectrum
>    while minimizing interference with terrestrial and other satellite networks.
>    - Scaling globally may *require satellites to carry varied payload
>    configurations to accommodate regional spectrum requirements*,
>    increasing technical complexity and deployment expenses.
>    - Operating on terrestrial frequencies *necessitates dynamic spectrum
>    sharing and interference mitigation strategies*, especially in densely
>    populated areas, limiting coverage efficiency and capacity.
>    -
>
> On the regulatory front, integrating D2C satellite services into existing
> mobile ecosystems is complex. Spectrum licensing is a key issue, as
> satellite operators must either share frequencies already allocated to
> terrestrial mobile operators or secure dedicated satellite spectrum.
>
>
>
>    - *Securing access to shared or dedicated spectrum*, particularly
>    negotiating with terrestrial operators to use licensed frequencies.
>    - *Avoiding interference* between satellite and terrestrial networks
>    requires detailed agreements and advanced spectrum management techniques.
>    - *Navigating fragmented regulatory frameworks* in Europe, where
>    national licensing requirements vary significantly.
>    - The high administrative and operational *burden of scaling globally* diminishes
>    economic benefits, particularly in regions where terrestrial networks
>    already dominate.
>
>
>
> The idea of D2C-capable satellite networks making terrestrial cellular
> networks obsolete is ambitious but fraught with practical limitations.
> While LEO satellites offer unparalleled reach in remote and underserved
> areas, they struggle to match terrestrial networks’ capacity, reliability,
> and low latency in urban and suburban environments. The high density of
> base stations in terrestrial networks enables them to handle far greater
> traffic volumes, especially for data-intensive applications.
>
>
>
> The regulatory and operational constraints surrounding using terrestrial
> mobile frequencies for D2C services severely limit scalability. This
> fragmentation makes it difficult to achieve global coverage seamlessly and
> increases operational and economic inefficiencies. While D2C services hold
> promise for addressing connectivity gaps in remote areas, their ability to
> scale as a comprehensive alternative to terrestrial networks is hampered by
> these challenges. Unless global regulatory harmonization or innovative
> technical solutions emerge, D2C networks will likely remain a
> complementary, sub-scale solution rather than a standalone replacement for
> terrestrial mobile networks.
>
>
>
> The report *"Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make
> Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?"*  is valuable for mobile operators
> and their shareholders, policymakers, security and defense analysts,
> network engineers, and other professionals.
>
>
>
> Let me know your feedback and questions.
>
>
>
> Best regards,
>
>
>
>
>
> John Strand
>
>
>
>
>
> Strand Consult is an independent, privately owned consultancy company. Our
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>
>
>
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>
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until further notice
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