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    <p>Hm. So what would we expect here?</p>
    <p>- Service provided from Wola Krobowska in Poland and Kaunas in
      Lithuania (if it's operational yet), and in the coming days or
      weeks perhaps from other sites in eastern and southeastern Europe
      (Romania looks like a good spot for that).<br>
      - Ukraine stretches from about 52 degrees north to around 46
      degrees north (or 44-something deg if you include Crimea, which
      however might have some problems getting dishys right now). That's
      prime Starlink latitude.<br>
    </p>
    <p>But:<br>
    </p>
    <p>- Ukraine also stretches about 1300 km across, and some of its
      parts are almost 1500 km away from the known gateways. That's a
      lot by Starlink standards (remember, Tonga gets "spotty" service
      at 750 km from the gateway in Fiji).<br>
      - If Starlink became a significant player in Ukraine, I would
      expect Russia to want to jam them. How difficult is it to jam
      Starlink satellites on the uplink from Belarus and Russia itself?
      Probably not too difficult. Similarly, the downlinks could
      potentially be jammed from the air.<br>
      - Where are Ukrainians going to put the dishys so they're not seen
      by Russian helicopter patrols? Would you put one on you roof if
      you were Ukrainian? Will they come in camouflage colours?<br>
      - Ukraine has a pretty long border with the EU/NATO, so plenty of
      opportunity to throw a bit of fibre over the fence and
      re-establish connectivity. Similarly, it's had a reasonably mature
      telecoms and Internet market and a lot of technically savy people
      ... I'd say Russia would have a hard time shutting the Internet
      out of Ukraine completely in a hurry.<br>
      - Last but not least: If I look at, e.g., Montana, which is a
      similar latitude and has a population of just over a million, and
      try to order Starlink there (Kalispell, for example), I get the
      message: "Order now to reserve your Starlink. Starlink is
      currently at capacity in your area, so your order may not be
      fulfilled until 2023 or later. You will receive a notification
      once your Starlink is ready to ship." That's with three gateways
      in easy range, two of them in under 200 km distance. Now if they
      can't even service Montana, how would they provide service to 40
      million Ukrainians?<br>
    </p>
    <div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 27/02/2022 8:15 pm, Mike Puchol
      wrote:<br>
    </div>
    <blockquote type="cite" cite="mid:cdc83992-a777-43d4-be62-95f2bc922767@Spark">
      
      <title></title>
      <div name="messageBodySection">
        <div dir="auto">In addition, AS50494 has started announcing two
          prefixes, I have only started looking into them, but a
          traceroute ends in Ukraine, and host returns e.g.
          gw.starlink.ua.<br>
          <br>
          From my simulation, the current known gateways can provide
          very good service to all of Ukraine.</div>
      </div>
      <div name="messageSignatureSection"><br>
        <div class="matchFont">Best,<br>
          <br>
          Mike</div>
      </div>
      <div name="messageReplySection">On Feb 27, 2022, 03:14 +0300, Doc
        Searls <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:doc@searls.com"><doc@searls.com></a>, wrote:<br>
        <blockquote type="cite" style="border-left-color: grey;
          border-left-width: thin; border-left-style: solid; margin: 5px
          5px;padding-left: 10px;">Item: <a href="https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497712365923618816" class="" moz-do-not-send="true">https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497712365923618816</a>
          <div class=""><br class="">
          </div>
          <blockquote style="margin: 0 0 0 40px; border: none; padding:
            0px;" class="">
            <div class="">
              <div class="">Elon Musk's Starlink satellite system
                providing internet access is now active in Ukraine.</div>
            </div>
            <div class="">
              <div class=""><br class="">
              </div>
            </div>
            <div class="">
              <div class="">Satellite terminals are on the way to
                Ukraine. This could be useful if Russia’s attacks
                destabilize Ukraine’s internet.</div>
            </div>
          </blockquote>
          <div class="">
            <div><br class="">
            </div>
            <div>Also, <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/starlink-service-ukraine-elon-musk-b2024184.html" class="" moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/starlink-service-ukraine-elon-musk-b2024184.html</a></div>
            <div><br class="">
            </div>
            <div>Doc</div>
            <div><br class="">
              <blockquote type="cite" class="">
                <div class="">On Feb 25, 2022, at 10:02 PM, Ulrich
                  Speidel <<a href="mailto:ulrich@cs.auckland.ac.nz" class="moz-txt-link-freetext" moz-do-not-send="true">ulrich@cs.auckland.ac.nz</a>>
                  wrote:</div>
                <br class="Apple-interchange-newline">
                <div class="">
                  <div class="">
                    <p class="">I like that mental model, too, although
                      the way Internet development has historically
                      played out in the Pacific has been quite diverse
                      in comparison.</p>
                    <p class="">Some place, e.g., Niue, did initially
                      exactly that - the local geek guru got it going
                      and things went from there. Other places were
                      worried that their monopoly telco might get
                      competition, and kept a lid on it for reasons
                      political or simply because they genuinely felt
                      that their island was too small not to pool
                      resources in a single provider. Some islands don't
                      have geek gurus. Tonga is a case in point here -
                      the smaller islands that didn't have cable so far
                      are, with the exception of 'Eua, very small in
                      terms of population, a few hundred people at most,
                      many only have a few dozen.<br class="">
                    </p>
                    <p class="">On many of these smaller islands, the
                      only businesses are small stall-like shops that
                      will sell bread from the local baker and
                      necessities such as tooth paste, soap, batteries
                      and that sort of thing, plus peanuts and other
                      imported snacks. Whatever the supply ship brings
                      when it comes, which could be once every few
                      months in some cases. Most people live off the
                      land, go fishing or collect shellfish on the reef,
                      and in some cases will produce crafts like
                      pandanus mats or tapa cloth, some of which is sent
                      overseas and can generate a bit of income. There
                      are a lot of old people in comparison to younger
                      folk, who have often left for a life overseas to
                      support those back home. Post offices, coffee
                      shops and libraries exist only on the larger
                      islands. The smaller islands will always have more
                      churches than you can count, and sadly some of
                      these still see the Internet as something to be
                      kept out at all cost - something that's by no
                      means unique to Tonga.<br class="">
                    </p>
                    On 26/02/2022 2:27 pm, Dave Taht wrote:<br class="">
                    <blockquote type="cite" cite="mid:CAA93jw7Kmq5msgiTBeDO3fOTMcKxt3zjz9j2TqVL0kwsS=0BOA@mail.gmail.com" class="">My mental model for starlink was very
                      different than what has deployed<br class="">
                      so far. A local geek guru would get one for the
                      local library/coffee<br class="">
                      shop/post office, set up local wifi and computers
                      cybercafe style, set<br class="">
                      up a few other p2p wireless links, perhaps a lte
                      node, etc, and<br class="">
                      enhance village to village (or island to island)
                      communications via a<br class="">
                      starlink node X miles away, as well as
                      provide/integrate with more<br class="">
                      local services such as local email,
                      videoconferencing and telephony<br class="">
                      without having to traverse the sat at all.<br class="">
                      <br class="">
                      As things built out, fiber or other forms of
                      connectivity would<br class="">
                      emerge, eventually connecting via land or high
                      speed p2p fixed<br class="">
                      wireless links, and starlink reverting to more of
                      a backup. Existing<br class="">
                      ISPs (notably wisps), would build out excessively
                      remote areas this<br class="">
                      way.<br class="">
                      <br class="">
                      This "vision" is highly influenced by efforts such
                      as the villagetelco<br class="">
                      and olpc. To some extent the new "premium" service
                      could go that way,<br class="">
                      but classic business networking services like BGP,
                      working ipv6, real<br class="">
                      ipv4 addresses, etc, are so far, lacking. BYOIP
                      and dual homing for<br class="">
                      existing providers has not been spoken of...<br class="">
                      <br class="">
                      But anyway, I hope the government of tonga uses
                      what they got wisely,<br class="">
                      though my primary use case would be for
                      multiplexing low bitrate apps<br class="">
                      for a lot of people (like voip and financial
                      transactions), over the<br class="">
                      web for a few.<br class="">
                      <br class="">
                      On Fri, Feb 25, 2022 at 8:12 PM Ulrich Speidel <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:ulrich@cs.auckland.ac.nz" moz-do-not-send="true"><ulrich@cs.auckland.ac.nz></a>
                      wrote:<br class="">
                      ><br class="">
                      > Someone from FINTEL mentioned this during my
                      seminar on Thursday, apparently they started
                      operations on the 16th and launched officially on
                      the 23rd.<br class="">
                      ><br class="">
                      > That said, if you try to order Starlink for
                      an address in, say, Neiafu on Vava'u, which has
                      15k people on it and lost its domestic cable
                      connection, you'll be able to pay a US$99 deposit
                      to reserve Starlink for ... 2023.<br class="">
                      ><br class="">
                      > The 50 or so Dishys they have delivered will
                      remain under government control and will probably
                      go all over the place, as there are many smaller
                      island that have no connectivity at all right now.
                      So I doubt that we'll see end user reviews any
                      time soon. I may be able to get some informal
                      feedback in a while.<br class="">
                      ><br class="">
                      > One of the local satellite(-agnostic) ISPs
                      did a review of Starlink service in Auckland, at
                      37 degrees south:<br class="">
                      ><br class="">
                      > <a href="https://getgravity.nz/blog/starlink-review-new-zealand-test-results-2022" moz-do-not-send="true" class="">https://getgravity.nz/blog/starlink-review-new-zealand-test-results-2022/</a><br class="">
                      ><br class="">
                      > Now that's with a gateway in cycling distance
                      (Clevedon) and two more within less than 200 km,
                      in a region that is probably not too overloaded
                      with users right. They still see frequent outages,
                      and I guess it would be worse in Tonga for the
                      time being.<br class="">
                      ><br class="">
                      > But I guess if it's the alternative to zero
                      connectivity, it's worth having, so kudos to them
                      for pushing the envelope here.<br class="">
                      ><br class="">
                      > On 26/02/2022 7:19 am, Nathan Owens wrote:<br class="">
                      ><br class="">
                      > <a href="https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1497258566347943936" moz-do-not-send="true" class="">https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1497258566347943936</a><br class="">
                      ><br class="">
                      > On Fri, Feb 25, 2022 at 9:15 AM Nathan Owens
                      <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:nathan@nathan.io" moz-do-not-send="true"><nathan@nathan.io></a>
                      wrote:<br class="">
                      >><br class="">
                      >> Per the Starlink 4-11 Launch webcast just
                      minutes ago, they have launched service in Tonga.<br class="">
                      >><br class="">
                      >> On Fri, Feb 25, 2022 at 9:12 AM Ulrich
                      Speidel <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz" moz-do-not-send="true"><u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz></a>
                      wrote:<br class="">
                      >>><br class="">
                      >>> Matangitonga said that Starlink
                      wanted to launch this week. But I haven't heard
                      confirmation from anyone that they actually have.<br class="">
                      >>><br class="">
                      >>> I guess a dishy without a link might
                      still make a nice coffee table if nothing else
                      & might even keep your coffee at temperature
                      for a bit longer, but seriously: I suppose they
                      must think in earnest that they'll be able to
                      deliver at least some service some percentage of
                      the time, which is more than some of the smaller
                      places have right now. And I don't really want to
                      dump on them - at least they tried, as did with
                      varying levels of success almost everybody else in
                      the satellite business, and that's really all you
                      can ask for.<br class="">
                      >>><br class="">
                      >>> Tongans are also an incredibly
                      patient and grateful people, whatever they have
                      they make do with. I first had plenty of
                      opportunity to witness this when we went there on
                      our honeymoon in 2003. One of the island villages
                      we stayed on in the Ha'apai group had piped water
                      to the beachfront properties installed yonks ago,
                      before they got electricity. Then the Australians
                      brought electricity around 2002 & used a
                      trench digger to put the cable in along the main
                      drag, unaware that there were water pipes in the
                      ground. The locals were too grateful for the
                      electricity to complain that they now needed to
                      walk to the cistern to get their water, and the
                      problem remained unsolved a year later - we had to
                      wash from big barrels and a bit of rainwater off
                      the roof. As we left Ha'apai after a hair-raising
                      boat passage in a 4 m boat in 6 m swells, we
                      didn't have a flight booked, so went to the
                      Ha'apai office of the long since defunct Royal
                      Tongan Airlines to book ourselves on the next
                      flight out. The two ladies in the office gave us
                      their most welcoming smiles, along with the regret
                      that they couldn't book us a ticket as the
                      computer were down. We asked how long such outages
                      typically lasted and were told that they didn't
                      know but this one had lasted three months already.
                      We then made our way to the airport with the help
                      of a few bored Mormon missionaries. We were the
                      only people there until the station manager turned
                      up. He reckoned there would be seats and told us
                      that he was the local baker as well and had been
                      trying out artisan bread recipes, which the locals
                      liked, but was finding it difficult to get the
                      right flour. Nice chat! Eventually the plane
                      arrived early without any passengers. Pilots and
                      station manager spent ten seconds bitching about
                      their employer (rightfully so, a long story I
                      shan't repeat - but neither the employees' nor the
                      management's fault, though), then the pilots
                      decided that they wanted lunch in Vava'u and off
                      we took 15 minutes ahead of schedule...<br class="">
                      >>><br class="">
                      >>> On 22/02/2022 8:45 pm, Daniel AJ
                      Sokolov @mobile wrote:<br class="">
                      >>><br class="">
                      >>> So the Starlink terminals have
                      arrived on Tongatapu, but are not operational yet?<br class="">
                      >>><br class="">
                      >>> Cheers<br class="">
                      >>> Daniel<br class="">
                      >>><br class="">
                      >>><br class="">
                      >>> On February 22, 2022 7:31:25 a.m.
                      UTC, Ulrich Speidel <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:ulrich@cs.auckland.ac.nz" moz-do-not-send="true"><ulrich@cs.auckland.ac.nz></a>
                      wrote:<br class="">
                      >>> >FWIW... this restores
                      connectivity to ~80% of Tonga's population.<br class="">
                      >>> ><br class="">
                      >>> >The domestic cable may be up to 9
                      months off, depending on cable lead<br class="">
                      >>> >time, apparently it's got to come
                      from France. In the interim, there's<br class="">
                      >>> >work on more satellite
                      connectivity, I heard from a satellite ISP in NZ<br class="">
                      >>> >today that they were about to
                      ship a few units for Eutelsat links up. I<br class="">
                      >>> >haven't heard any further about
                      operational readiness of Starlink, but<br class="">
                      >>> >have heard from a well-connected
                      source that the dishys delivered to<br class="">
                      >>> >Tonga will remain in Tongan
                      government service in underconnected places<br class="">
                      >>> >if and when service becomes
                      available.<br class="">
                      >>> ><br class="">
                      >>> >I would expect them to hang onto
                      a couple of units for Tongatapu just in<br class="">
                      >>> >case there'll be more turbidity
                      currents messing with the cable, heaven<br class="">
                      >>> >forbid.<br class="">
                      >>> ><br class="">
                      >>> >--<br class="">
                      >>>
                      >****************************************************************<br class="">
                      >>> >Dr. Ulrich Speidel<br class="">
                      >>> ><br class="">
                      >>> >School of Computer Science<br class="">
                      >>> ><br class="">
                      >>> >Room 303S.594 (City Campus)<br class="">
                      >>> ><br class="">
                      >>> >The University of Auckland<br class="">
                      >>> ><a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated
                        moz-txt-link-freetext" href="mailto:u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz" moz-do-not-send="true">u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz</a><br class="">
                      >>> ><a href="http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich" moz-do-not-send="true" class="">http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/</a><br class="">
                      >>>
                      >****************************************************************<br class="">
                      >>> ><br class="">
                      >>> ><br class="">
                      >>> ><br class="">
                      >>>
                      >_______________________________________________<br class="">
                      >>> >Starlink mailing list<br class="">
                      >>> ><a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated
                        moz-txt-link-freetext" href="mailto:Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net" moz-do-not-send="true">Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net</a><br class="">
                      >>> ><a href="https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink" moz-do-not-send="true" class="">https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink</a><br class="">
                      >>><br class="">
                      >>> --<br class="">
                      >>>
                      ****************************************************************<br class="">
                      >>> Dr. Ulrich Speidel<br class="">
                      >>><br class="">
                      >>> School of Computer Science<br class="">
                      >>><br class="">
                      >>> Room 303S.594 (City Campus)<br class="">
                      >>><br class="">
                      >>> The University of Auckland<br class="">
                      >>> <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated
                        moz-txt-link-freetext" href="mailto:u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz" moz-do-not-send="true">u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz</a><br class="">
                      >>> <a href="http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/" moz-do-not-send="true" class="">http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/</a><br class="">
                      >>>
                      ****************************************************************<br class="">
                      >>><br class="">
                      >>><br class="">
                      >>><br class="">
                      >>>
                      _______________________________________________<br class="">
                      >>> Starlink mailing list<br class="">
                      >>> <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated
                        moz-txt-link-freetext" href="mailto:Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net" moz-do-not-send="true">Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net</a><br class="">
                      >>> <a href="https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink" moz-do-not-send="true" class="">https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink</a><br class="">
                      ><br class="">
                      > --<br class="">
                      >
                      ****************************************************************<br class="">
                      > Dr. Ulrich Speidel<br class="">
                      ><br class="">
                      > School of Computer Science<br class="">
                      ><br class="">
                      > Room 303S.594 (City Campus)<br class="">
                      ><br class="">
                      > The University of Auckland<br class="">
                      > <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated
                        moz-txt-link-freetext" href="mailto:u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz" moz-do-not-send="true">u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz</a><br class="">
                      > <a href="http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/" moz-do-not-send="true" class="">http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/</a><br class="">
                      >
                      ****************************************************************<br class="">
                      ><br class="">
                      ><br class="">
                      ><br class="">
                      >
                      _______________________________________________<br class="">
                      > Starlink mailing list<br class="">
                      > <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated
                        moz-txt-link-freetext" href="mailto:Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net" moz-do-not-send="true">Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net</a><br class="">
                      > <a href="https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink" moz-do-not-send="true" class="">https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink</a><br class="">
                      <br class="">
                      <br class="">
                      <br class="">
                      --<br class="">
                      I tried to build a better future, a few times:<br class="">
                      <a href="https://wayforward.archive.org/?site=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.icei.org" moz-do-not-send="true" class="">https://wayforward.archive.org/?site=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.icei.org</a><br class="">
                      <br class="">
                      Dave Täht CEO, TekLibre, LLC<br class="">
                    </blockquote>
                    <pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">--  
****************************************************************
Dr. Ulrich Speidel

School of Computer Science

Room 303S.594 (City Campus)

The University of Auckland
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated moz-txt-link-freetext" href="mailto:u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz" moz-do-not-send="true">u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz</a>  
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/" moz-do-not-send="true">http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/</a>
****************************************************************



</pre>
                  </div>
                  _______________________________________________<br class="">
                  Starlink mailing list<br class="">
                  <a href="mailto:Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net" class="moz-txt-link-freetext" moz-do-not-send="true">Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net</a><br class="">
                  <a href="https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink" moz-do-not-send="true">https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink</a><br class="">
                </div>
              </blockquote>
            </div>
            <br class="">
          </div>
          _______________________________________________<br>
          Starlink mailing list<br>
          <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net">Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net</a><br>
          <a href="https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink" moz-do-not-send="true">https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink</a><br>
        </blockquote>
      </div>
    </blockquote>
    <pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">-- 
****************************************************************
Dr. Ulrich Speidel

School of Computer Science

Room 303S.594 (City Campus)

The University of Auckland
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz">u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz</a> 
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/">http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/</a>
****************************************************************



</pre>
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