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<p>I think your simulations are a bit generous, IMHO. On their
basis, Starlink in NZ ought to be available on our Chatham
Islands, around 875 km from the nearest gateway, and it's not
(Starlink says "in 2023"). It's available everywhere else in the
country now, so it's not a capacity issue. Similarly, people in
Alice Springs (Australia) should get service and they don't.
Starlink says "targeting coverage in 2022" here, so presumably
they're looking at establishing another gateway closer to the town
soon. <br>
</p>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 27/02/2022 11:56 pm, Mike Puchol
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite" cite="mid:d6534433-29e1-4c23-a85c-e53319ffbb3d@Spark">
<title></title>
<div name="messageBodySection">
<div dir="auto">All valid thoughts - my simulation using the
currently known gateways shows that coverage is from good to
acceptable over all of Ukraine, see below:<br>
<br>
<img style="max-width:100%;height:auto" src="cid:part1.ExR18hVw.JnFZImCZ@cs.auckland.ac.nz" class=""><br>
<br>
Starlink is not suitable for serving 40 million Ukranians,
just the same as it is not suitable to serve the entire
population of Montana. You see those messages because Montana
cells, where they have allocated capacity, are full already,
and won’t allow more terminals until there is more capacity in
the constellation.<br>
<br>
The Starlink terminals would best be use in a tactical
approach, i.e. not for fixed service on a rooftop. You can
also implement OPSEC such as placing the UT 300 meters away
over ethernet, thus not exposing your location as much to
RF-targeted missile attacks.<br>
<br>
In terms of jamming, it can all be jammed - in any case, you’d
need to overwhelm several satellites, many not inside the
theater, and which are constantly moving. You could jam the
downlink using an aerial platform, and this capability exists.</div>
</div>
<div name="messageSignatureSection"><br>
<div class="matchFont">Best,<br>
<br>
Mike</div>
</div>
<div name="messageReplySection">On Feb 27, 2022, 13:26 +0300,
Ulrich Speidel <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:ulrich@cs.auckland.ac.nz"><ulrich@cs.auckland.ac.nz></a>, wrote:<br>
<blockquote type="cite" style="border-left-color: grey;
border-left-width: thin; border-left-style: solid; margin: 5px
5px;padding-left: 10px;">
<p>Hm. So what would we expect here?</p>
<p>- Service provided from Wola Krobowska in Poland and Kaunas
in Lithuania (if it's operational yet), and in the coming
days or weeks perhaps from other sites in eastern and
southeastern Europe (Romania looks like a good spot for
that).<br>
- Ukraine stretches from about 52 degrees north to around 46
degrees north (or 44-something deg if you include Crimea,
which however might have some problems getting dishys right
now). That's prime Starlink latitude.<br>
</p>
<p>But:<br>
</p>
<p>- Ukraine also stretches about 1300 km across, and some of
its parts are almost 1500 km away from the known gateways.
That's a lot by Starlink standards (remember, Tonga gets
"spotty" service at 750 km from the gateway in Fiji).<br>
- If Starlink became a significant player in Ukraine, I
would expect Russia to want to jam them. How difficult is it
to jam Starlink satellites on the uplink from Belarus and
Russia itself? Probably not too difficult. Similarly, the
downlinks could potentially be jammed from the air.<br>
- Where are Ukrainians going to put the dishys so they're
not seen by Russian helicopter patrols? Would you put one on
you roof if you were Ukrainian? Will they come in camouflage
colours?<br>
- Ukraine has a pretty long border with the EU/NATO, so
plenty of opportunity to throw a bit of fibre over the fence
and re-establish connectivity. Similarly, it's had a
reasonably mature telecoms and Internet market and a lot of
technically savy people ... I'd say Russia would have a hard
time shutting the Internet out of Ukraine completely in a
hurry.<br>
- Last but not least: If I look at, e.g., Montana, which is
a similar latitude and has a population of just over a
million, and try to order Starlink there (Kalispell, for
example), I get the message: "Order now to reserve your
Starlink. Starlink is currently at capacity in your area, so
your order may not be fulfilled until 2023 or later. You
will receive a notification once your Starlink is ready to
ship." That's with three gateways in easy range, two of them
in under 200 km distance. Now if they can't even service
Montana, how would they provide service to 40 million
Ukrainians?<br>
</p>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 27/02/2022 8:15 pm, Mike
Puchol wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite" cite="mid:cdc83992-a777-43d4-be62-95f2bc922767@Spark">
<div name="messageBodySection">
<div dir="auto">In addition, AS50494 has started
announcing two prefixes, I have only started looking
into them, but a traceroute ends in Ukraine, and host
returns e.g. gw.starlink.ua.<br>
<br>
From my simulation, the current known gateways can
provide very good service to all of Ukraine.</div>
</div>
<div name="messageSignatureSection"><br>
<div class="matchFont">Best,<br>
<br>
Mike</div>
</div>
<div name="messageReplySection">On Feb 27, 2022, 03:14
+0300, Doc Searls <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:doc@searls.com" moz-do-not-send="true"><doc@searls.com></a>,
wrote:<br>
<blockquote type="cite" style="border-left-color: grey;
border-left-width: thin; border-left-style: solid;
margin: 5px 5px;padding-left: 10px;">Item: <a href="https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497712365923618816" class="" moz-do-not-send="true">https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497712365923618816</a>
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
<blockquote style="margin: 0 0 0 40px; border: none;
padding: 0px;" class="">
<div class="">
<div class="">Elon Musk's Starlink satellite system
providing internet access is now active in
Ukraine.</div>
</div>
<div class="">
<div class=""><br class="">
</div>
</div>
<div class="">
<div class="">Satellite terminals are on the way to
Ukraine. This could be useful if Russia’s attacks
destabilize Ukraine’s internet.</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<div class="">
<div><br class="">
</div>
<div>Also, <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/starlink-service-ukraine-elon-musk-b2024184.html" class="" moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/starlink-service-ukraine-elon-musk-b2024184.html</a></div>
<div><br class="">
</div>
<div>Doc</div>
<div><br class="">
<blockquote type="cite" class="">
<div class="">On Feb 25, 2022, at 10:02 PM, Ulrich
Speidel <<a href="mailto:ulrich@cs.auckland.ac.nz" class="moz-txt-link-freetext" moz-do-not-send="true">ulrich@cs.auckland.ac.nz</a>>
wrote:</div>
<br class="Apple-interchange-newline">
<div class="">
<div class="">
<p class="">I like that mental model, too,
although the way Internet development has
historically played out in the Pacific has
been quite diverse in comparison.</p>
<p class="">Some place, e.g., Niue, did
initially exactly that - the local geek guru
got it going and things went from there.
Other places were worried that their
monopoly telco might get competition, and
kept a lid on it for reasons political or
simply because they genuinely felt that
their island was too small not to pool
resources in a single provider. Some islands
don't have geek gurus. Tonga is a case in
point here - the smaller islands that didn't
have cable so far are, with the exception of
'Eua, very small in terms of population, a
few hundred people at most, many only have a
few dozen.<br class="">
</p>
<p class="">On many of these smaller islands,
the only businesses are small stall-like
shops that will sell bread from the local
baker and necessities such as tooth paste,
soap, batteries and that sort of thing, plus
peanuts and other imported snacks. Whatever
the supply ship brings when it comes, which
could be once every few months in some
cases. Most people live off the land, go
fishing or collect shellfish on the reef,
and in some cases will produce crafts like
pandanus mats or tapa cloth, some of which
is sent overseas and can generate a bit of
income. There are a lot of old people in
comparison to younger folk, who have often
left for a life overseas to support those
back home. Post offices, coffee shops and
libraries exist only on the larger islands.
The smaller islands will always have more
churches than you can count, and sadly some
of these still see the Internet as something
to be kept out at all cost - something
that's by no means unique to Tonga.<br class="">
</p>
On 26/02/2022 2:27 pm, Dave Taht wrote:<br class="">
<blockquote type="cite" cite="mid:CAA93jw7Kmq5msgiTBeDO3fOTMcKxt3zjz9j2TqVL0kwsS=0BOA@mail.gmail.com" class="">My mental model for starlink was
very different than what has deployed<br class="">
so far. A local geek guru would get one for
the local library/coffee<br class="">
shop/post office, set up local wifi and
computers cybercafe style, set<br class="">
up a few other p2p wireless links, perhaps a
lte node, etc, and<br class="">
enhance village to village (or island to
island) communications via a<br class="">
starlink node X miles away, as well as
provide/integrate with more<br class="">
local services such as local email,
videoconferencing and telephony<br class="">
without having to traverse the sat at all.<br class="">
<br class="">
As things built out, fiber or other forms of
connectivity would<br class="">
emerge, eventually connecting via land or
high speed p2p fixed<br class="">
wireless links, and starlink reverting to
more of a backup. Existing<br class="">
ISPs (notably wisps), would build out
excessively remote areas this<br class="">
way.<br class="">
<br class="">
This "vision" is highly influenced by
efforts such as the villagetelco<br class="">
and olpc. To some extent the new "premium"
service could go that way,<br class="">
but classic business networking services
like BGP, working ipv6, real<br class="">
ipv4 addresses, etc, are so far, lacking.
BYOIP and dual homing for<br class="">
existing providers has not been spoken of...<br class="">
<br class="">
But anyway, I hope the government of tonga
uses what they got wisely,<br class="">
though my primary use case would be for
multiplexing low bitrate apps<br class="">
for a lot of people (like voip and financial
transactions), over the<br class="">
web for a few.<br class="">
<br class="">
On Fri, Feb 25, 2022 at 8:12 PM Ulrich
Speidel <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:ulrich@cs.auckland.ac.nz" moz-do-not-send="true"><ulrich@cs.auckland.ac.nz></a>
wrote:<br class="">
><br class="">
> Someone from FINTEL mentioned this
during my seminar on Thursday, apparently
they started operations on the 16th and
launched officially on the 23rd.<br class="">
><br class="">
> That said, if you try to order Starlink
for an address in, say, Neiafu on Vava'u,
which has 15k people on it and lost its
domestic cable connection, you'll be able to
pay a US$99 deposit to reserve Starlink for
... 2023.<br class="">
><br class="">
> The 50 or so Dishys they have delivered
will remain under government control and
will probably go all over the place, as
there are many smaller island that have no
connectivity at all right now. So I doubt
that we'll see end user reviews any time
soon. I may be able to get some informal
feedback in a while.<br class="">
><br class="">
> One of the local satellite(-agnostic)
ISPs did a review of Starlink service in
Auckland, at 37 degrees south:<br class="">
><br class="">
> <a href="https://getgravity.nz/blog/starlink-review-new-zealand-test-results-2022" moz-do-not-send="true" class="">https://getgravity.nz/blog/starlink-review-new-zealand-test-results-2022/</a><br class="">
><br class="">
> Now that's with a gateway in cycling
distance (Clevedon) and two more within less
than 200 km, in a region that is probably
not too overloaded with users right. They
still see frequent outages, and I guess it
would be worse in Tonga for the time being.<br class="">
><br class="">
> But I guess if it's the alternative to
zero connectivity, it's worth having, so
kudos to them for pushing the envelope here.<br class="">
><br class="">
> On 26/02/2022 7:19 am, Nathan Owens
wrote:<br class="">
><br class="">
> <a href="https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1497258566347943936" moz-do-not-send="true" class="">https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1497258566347943936</a><br class="">
><br class="">
> On Fri, Feb 25, 2022 at 9:15 AM Nathan
Owens <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:nathan@nathan.io" moz-do-not-send="true"><nathan@nathan.io></a>
wrote:<br class="">
>><br class="">
>> Per the Starlink 4-11 Launch
webcast just minutes ago, they have launched
service in Tonga.<br class="">
>><br class="">
>> On Fri, Feb 25, 2022 at 9:12 AM
Ulrich Speidel <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz" moz-do-not-send="true"><u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz></a>
wrote:<br class="">
>>><br class="">
>>> Matangitonga said that Starlink
wanted to launch this week. But I haven't
heard confirmation from anyone that they
actually have.<br class="">
>>><br class="">
>>> I guess a dishy without a link
might still make a nice coffee table if
nothing else & might even keep your
coffee at temperature for a bit longer, but
seriously: I suppose they must think in
earnest that they'll be able to deliver at
least some service some percentage of the
time, which is more than some of the smaller
places have right now. And I don't really
want to dump on them - at least they tried,
as did with varying levels of success almost
everybody else in the satellite business,
and that's really all you can ask for.<br class="">
>>><br class="">
>>> Tongans are also an incredibly
patient and grateful people, whatever they
have they make do with. I first had plenty
of opportunity to witness this when we went
there on our honeymoon in 2003. One of the
island villages we stayed on in the Ha'apai
group had piped water to the beachfront
properties installed yonks ago, before they
got electricity. Then the Australians
brought electricity around 2002 & used a
trench digger to put the cable in along the
main drag, unaware that there were water
pipes in the ground. The locals were too
grateful for the electricity to complain
that they now needed to walk to the cistern
to get their water, and the problem remained
unsolved a year later - we had to wash from
big barrels and a bit of rainwater off the
roof. As we left Ha'apai after a
hair-raising boat passage in a 4 m boat in 6
m swells, we didn't have a flight booked, so
went to the Ha'apai office of the long since
defunct Royal Tongan Airlines to book
ourselves on the next flight out. The two
ladies in the office gave us their most
welcoming smiles, along with the regret that
they couldn't book us a ticket as the
computer were down. We asked how long such
outages typically lasted and were told that
they didn't know but this one had lasted
three months already. We then made our way
to the airport with the help of a few bored
Mormon missionaries. We were the only people
there until the station manager turned up.
He reckoned there would be seats and told us
that he was the local baker as well and had
been trying out artisan bread recipes, which
the locals liked, but was finding it
difficult to get the right flour. Nice chat!
Eventually the plane arrived early without
any passengers. Pilots and station manager
spent ten seconds bitching about their
employer (rightfully so, a long story I
shan't repeat - but neither the employees'
nor the management's fault, though), then
the pilots decided that they wanted lunch in
Vava'u and off we took 15 minutes ahead of
schedule...<br class="">
>>><br class="">
>>> On 22/02/2022 8:45 pm, Daniel
AJ Sokolov @mobile wrote:<br class="">
>>><br class="">
>>> So the Starlink terminals have
arrived on Tongatapu, but are not
operational yet?<br class="">
>>><br class="">
>>> Cheers<br class="">
>>> Daniel<br class="">
>>><br class="">
>>><br class="">
>>> On February 22, 2022 7:31:25
a.m. UTC, Ulrich Speidel <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:ulrich@cs.auckland.ac.nz" moz-do-not-send="true"><ulrich@cs.auckland.ac.nz></a>
wrote:<br class="">
>>> >FWIW... this restores
connectivity to ~80% of Tonga's population.<br class="">
>>> ><br class="">
>>> >The domestic cable may be
up to 9 months off, depending on cable lead<br class="">
>>> >time, apparently it's got
to come from France. In the interim, there's<br class="">
>>> >work on more satellite
connectivity, I heard from a satellite ISP
in NZ<br class="">
>>> >today that they were about
to ship a few units for Eutelsat links up. I<br class="">
>>> >haven't heard any further
about operational readiness of Starlink, but<br class="">
>>> >have heard from a
well-connected source that the dishys
delivered to<br class="">
>>> >Tonga will remain in Tongan
government service in underconnected places<br class="">
>>> >if and when service becomes
available.<br class="">
>>> ><br class="">
>>> >I would expect them to hang
onto a couple of units for Tongatapu just in<br class="">
>>> >case there'll be more
turbidity currents messing with the cable,
heaven<br class="">
>>> >forbid.<br class="">
>>> ><br class="">
>>> >--<br class="">
>>>
>****************************************************************<br class="">
>>> >Dr. Ulrich Speidel<br class="">
>>> ><br class="">
>>> >School of Computer Science<br class="">
>>> ><br class="">
>>> >Room 303S.594 (City Campus)<br class="">
>>> ><br class="">
>>> >The University of Auckland<br class="">
>>> ><a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated
moz-txt-link-freetext" href="mailto:u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz" moz-do-not-send="true">u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz</a><br class="">
>>> ><a href="http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich" moz-do-not-send="true" class="">http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/</a><br class="">
>>>
>****************************************************************<br class="">
>>> ><br class="">
>>> ><br class="">
>>> ><br class="">
>>>
>_______________________________________________<br class="">
>>> >Starlink mailing list<br class="">
>>> ><a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated
moz-txt-link-freetext" href="mailto:Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net" moz-do-not-send="true">Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net</a><br class="">
>>> ><a href="https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink" moz-do-not-send="true" class="">https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink</a><br class="">
>>><br class="">
>>> --<br class="">
>>>
****************************************************************<br class="">
>>> Dr. Ulrich Speidel<br class="">
>>><br class="">
>>> School of Computer Science<br class="">
>>><br class="">
>>> Room 303S.594 (City Campus)<br class="">
>>><br class="">
>>> The University of Auckland<br class="">
>>> <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated
moz-txt-link-freetext" href="mailto:u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz" moz-do-not-send="true">u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz</a><br class="">
>>> <a href="http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/" moz-do-not-send="true" class="">http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/</a><br class="">
>>>
****************************************************************<br class="">
>>><br class="">
>>><br class="">
>>><br class="">
>>>
_______________________________________________<br class="">
>>> Starlink mailing list<br class="">
>>> <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated
moz-txt-link-freetext" href="mailto:Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net" moz-do-not-send="true">Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net</a><br class="">
>>> <a href="https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink" moz-do-not-send="true" class="">https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink</a><br class="">
><br class="">
> --<br class="">
>
****************************************************************<br class="">
> Dr. Ulrich Speidel<br class="">
><br class="">
> School of Computer Science<br class="">
><br class="">
> Room 303S.594 (City Campus)<br class="">
><br class="">
> The University of Auckland<br class="">
> <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated
moz-txt-link-freetext" href="mailto:u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz" moz-do-not-send="true">u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz</a><br class="">
> <a href="http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/" moz-do-not-send="true" class="">http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/</a><br class="">
>
****************************************************************<br class="">
><br class="">
><br class="">
><br class="">
>
_______________________________________________<br class="">
> Starlink mailing list<br class="">
> <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated
moz-txt-link-freetext" href="mailto:Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net" moz-do-not-send="true">Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net</a><br class="">
> <a href="https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink" moz-do-not-send="true" class="">https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink</a><br class="">
<br class="">
<br class="">
<br class="">
--<br class="">
I tried to build a better future, a few
times:<br class="">
<a href="https://wayforward.archive.org/?site=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.icei.org" moz-do-not-send="true" class="">https://wayforward.archive.org/?site=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.icei.org</a><br class="">
<br class="">
Dave Täht CEO, TekLibre, LLC<br class="">
</blockquote>
<pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">--
****************************************************************
Dr. Ulrich Speidel
School of Computer Science
Room 303S.594 (City Campus)
The University of Auckland
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated moz-txt-link-freetext" href="mailto:u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz" moz-do-not-send="true">u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz</a>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/" moz-do-not-send="true">http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/</a>
****************************************************************
</pre>
</div>
_______________________________________________<br class="">
Starlink mailing list<br class="">
<a href="mailto:Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net" class="moz-txt-link-freetext" moz-do-not-send="true">Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net</a><br class="">
<a href="https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink" moz-do-not-send="true">https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink</a><br class="">
</div>
</blockquote>
</div>
<br class="">
</div>
_______________________________________________<br>
Starlink mailing list<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated
moz-txt-link-freetext" href="mailto:Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net" moz-do-not-send="true">Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net</a><br>
<a href="https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink" moz-do-not-send="true">https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink</a><br>
</blockquote>
</div>
</blockquote>
<pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">--
****************************************************************
Dr. Ulrich Speidel
School of Computer Science
Room 303S.594 (City Campus)
The University of Auckland
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated moz-txt-link-freetext" href="mailto:u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz" moz-do-not-send="true">u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz</a>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/" moz-do-not-send="true">http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/</a>
****************************************************************
</pre>
</blockquote>
</div>
</blockquote>
<pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">--
****************************************************************
Dr. Ulrich Speidel
School of Computer Science
Room 303S.594 (City Campus)
The University of Auckland
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz">u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz</a>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/">http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/</a>
****************************************************************
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