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<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 25/09/2023 5:40 pm, Noel Butler via
Starlink wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite" cite="mid:4745d4934dbda686a41851d8b12b8c0b@ausics.net">
<div class="pre" style="margin: 0; padding: 0; font-family: monospace">Mail is
mostly Australian since that's where my userbase is, but there
is considerable international (even when I exclude the spambots,
gmail, outlook socials etc), as for WWW, and excluding most
bots, last time I checked webalizer the figures on a couple of
my sites were less than 10% from Aus and the rest (obviously)
international, so its more varied than one might think, but it
does vary depending on the site being visited, I don't run the
BBC or CNN, so of course I wont see the diverse ranges they
will.</div>
</blockquote>
IPv6 adoption in Australia (and NZ) is a bit behind the curve,
internationally.<br>
<blockquote type="cite" cite="mid:4745d4934dbda686a41851d8b12b8c0b@ausics.net">
<div class="pre" style="margin: 0; padding: 0; font-family: monospace"> </div>
<blockquote type="cite" style="padding: 0 0.4em; border-left: #1010ff 2px solid; margin: 0">
<div class="pre" style="margin: 0; padding: 0; font-family: monospace">So
you're in the process of being outnumbered. But that's perhaps
of academic interest only, for now, at least.</div>
</blockquote>
<div class="pre" style="margin: 0; padding: 0; font-family: monospace"> </div>
<div class="pre" style="margin: 0; padding: 0; font-family: monospace">Yes, like
I previously said, not in my lifetime.</div>
</blockquote>
I'm not sure how old you are, but I could imagine things going
pretty quickly from some point onwards. <br>
<blockquote type="cite" cite="mid:4745d4934dbda686a41851d8b12b8c0b@ausics.net">
<div class="pre" style="margin: 0; padding: 0; font-family: monospace"> </div>
<blockquote type="cite" style="padding: 0 0.4em; border-left: #1010ff 2px solid; margin: 0">
<div class="pre" style="margin: 0; padding: 0; font-family: monospace">I came
home from APNIC54 last year with the insight that my
employer's /16 IPv4 allocation was worth around US$3.5
million. Since we've had the /16 for ages, I started wondering
whether this was even on our asset list. I was pretty sure
that it ought to be. Turns out it wasn't - when</div>
</blockquote>
<div class="pre" style="margin: 0; padding: 0; font-family: monospace"> </div>
<div class="pre" style="margin: 0; padding: 0; font-family: monospace">I've no
doubt they aren't on many, but putting a price on an intangible
asset that varies is not so easy, what it's worth today it wont
be in six months, yes, with ipv4 that means probably worth more,
but a new buyer might not want nor need them, so that's another
sales stream you need to find, and then you're competing against
others with the same asset, a CGNAT device is physical one they
can keep using without interrupting services to clients if they
so choose, the only intangible asset that's worth something is
the ongoing good will, you don't get that from address space
unless you have a fresh faced startup type buyer. I'm curious
though, your part of a University, so it's not like you're going
to be able to use that extra 3.5m, I don;t see the Uni giving up
its resources, a business of course is a different matter.</div>
</blockquote>
<p>The point is that an IPv4 allocation is no longer a resource
unless you have an active need for it. We've sold entire campuses
lately, so I wouldn't bet on IPv4 holdings... Incidentally,
goodwill isn't the only intangible asset that's worth something -
my father used to work in that space for decades and I earned
extra pocket money proofreading an M&A textbook for
practitioners, and I can tell you that the true list was long,
even 40 years ago...<br>
</p>
<p>You only really "need" IPv4 if you operate a network with a lot
of servers that see inbound traffic from random clients in
networks you have no control over. So it's in demand primarily
from parties that predominantly operate servers and are
experiencing growth, as well as networks that are invested in IPv4
and need more to support their growth. But that's a substantial
market. I'd expect IPv4 prices to fall once the demand for IPv4
subsides, and that's going to be when the overwhelming majority of
the world runs IPv6. That might be another 5 or 10 years away -
hard to tell. At current growth rates, probably not 20 though. Not
sure what you're projecting as your lifetime ;-)</p>
<span style="white-space: pre-wrap">
</span>
<pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">--
****************************************************************
Dr. Ulrich Speidel
School of Computer Science
Room 303S.594 (City Campus)
The University of Auckland
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz">u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz</a>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/">http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/</a>
****************************************************************
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