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The report touches on the thorny topic of the uplink, however, IMHO it leaves out one important consideration: battery life. The assumptions on link budget work on the basis of the UE employing full power at the full duty cycle, which would result in a dramatic reduction in battery life of the device.
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If you have traveled to certain African countries, where mobile networks rely on large and macro cells, rather than densification (for cost reasons), you will have already experienced this, where your smartphone's battery seems to die faster (it does!), as it's working harder to reach the towers.
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I'll add to this something that Loon learned, and which was published in the Loon Library (page 180), in regards to the quality of devices found in the field:
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"An issue with these low-priced phones is that their LTE radio performance is significantly worse than the phones Loon used during the development and testing of its
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LTE subsystems. This performance readjusted Loon’s expectations for the number
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of users that could be serviced, the number of GBs that could be delivered, and from
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which environments the users could successfully connect to Loon."
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It is a fascinating read: <a href="https://storage.googleapis.com/x-prod.appspot.com/files/The%20Loon%20Library.pdf">https://storage.googleapis.com/x-prod.appspot.com/files/The%20Loon%20Library.pdf</a>
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Best,
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Mike
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On 29/01/2025 14:09 CET Vint Cerf via Starlink <starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:
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thanks for sharing this analysis with which I resonate. I doubt that the LEO constellations will scale to the same extent that ground-based cellular systems have. However, they will take some traffic. Prices might also be an issue. Interestingly, video conferencing over the Internet is a substitute for traditional telephony and comes naturally thanks to the digital nature of the transmission.
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v
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On Wed, Jan 29, 2025 at 7:30 AM Hesham ElBakoury via Starlink <<a href="mailto:starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net">starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net</a>> wrote:
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---------- Forwarded message ---------
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From: <strong class="gmail_sendername" dir="auto">John Strand</strong> <span dir="auto"><<a href="mailto:js@strandconsult.dk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">js@strandconsult.dk</a>></span>
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Date: Wed, Jan 29, 2025, 4:23 AM
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Subject: Here is the first edition of the report: Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?
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To: <<a href="mailto:info@strandconsult.dk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">info@strandconsult.dk</a>>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">Dear Colleague,</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">Here is the first edition of the report: <strong>“Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?”</strong> The report is a part of a signature series in Strand Consult´s <a href="https://strandconsult.dk/category/fair-cost-recovery/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Global Project for Business Models for Broadband Cost Recovery</a>. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">This new report offers a comprehensive analysis of the role of Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites in the telecommunications industry. It examines the advancements in satellite technology, the challenges in achieving service parity with terrestrial networks, and the implications for global connectivity. It explores the technical, economic, and regulatory factors shaping the deployment of Direct-to-Cell satellite services and evaluates whether these networks can complement or replace traditional cellular infrastructure.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">This report aims to illuminate the forces driving developments in LEO satellite networks, the challenges they face, and how these technologies will likely shape the telecommunications industry's future. It aims to provide inspiration and insights that can be used to frame discussions about the trends and transformations affecting connectivity on a global scale.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">When reading recent media and comments on various media postings, one can quickly get the impression that satellites will replace traditional mobile networks. This narrative often simplifies a complex issue, creating the perception that satellite technology is a universal solution to global connectivity challenges. However, a more pragmatic view reveals that satellite networks like those operated by Starlink offer revolutionary opportunities but are unlikely to make terrestrial mobile networks obsolete. Instead, these technologies will coexist, each serving distinct roles in the communication ecosystem.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">There are many mobile telecom operators which fear that low earth orbit (LEO) satellite networks like Starlink and others could impact their business in a negative way like over the top (OTT) providers. Indeed, there is a concern about traffic and revenue moving away from mobile networks to providers which do not have the same regulatory obligations or cost structure. For example, in some countries, some LEO satellite providers do not pay for the use of radio spectrum. These are important issues to examine in their short, medium and long term impacts. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">Strand Consult’s global project for <a href="https://strandconsult.dk/category/fair-cost-recovery/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Broadband Cost Recovery and Business Models</a> examines the challenges for mobile telecom operators to build and run networks and the set of solutions to improve return on investment. A key region impacted by LEO satellites is the Caribbean. Strand Consult’s report <em><a href="https://strandconsult.dk/gigabit-caribbean-closing-the-investment-gap-in-fixed-and-mobile-networks/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">“Gigabit Caribbean: Closing the Investment Gap in Fixed and Mobile Networks<span style="font-style: normal;">”</span></a> </em>describes the inherent challenge to deliver return on investment in remote areas with limited population and in the face of growing traffic from outside providers which contribute zero financially to the local economy. LEO satellites may be a double-edged sword in that they may provide connectivity in an emergency, but they do not conform to local regulatory requirements, nor do they participate locally financially. The issue is also relevant for rural broadband providers in the USA which Strand Consult documented in its report <a href="https://strandconsult.dk/broadband-cost-recovery-a-study-of-50-broadband-providers-in-24-us-states-new-report-from-strand-consult/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">“Broadband Cost Recovery: A Study of Business Models for 50 Broadband Providers In 24 US States.”</a></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">The Satellite Race to Reach the Phone.</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">Among the various players in the Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite market, <a href="https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-24-1193A1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Starlink</a>, led by Elon Musk’s SpaceX, has emerged as the frontrunner. With a network of almost 7,000 satellites operating, 300+ (2<sup>nd</sup> generation or Gen2) satellites have <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2024/11/27/24307394/starlink-spacex-tmobile-direct-to-cell-satellite-fcc-approval" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Direct-to-Cell capabilities</a>. SpaceX's spectrum regulatory approach outside the U.S. has been criticized for not always adhering to local licensing frameworks (e.g., cases in India, France, and South Africa). Its reliance on spectrum that local regulators have not officially granted can create tensions with governments and local telecom providers. Starlink operates a global satellite network with thousands of satellites covering areas without always having lawful access to the spectrum on which it provides services. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">This is an even more significant challenge regarding the regular cellular spectrum used for traditional mobile cellular services licensed and used by local telecommunication companies. Thus, it requires, at least, the satellite operator to collaborate locally with telco operators who have the usage rights of the cellular spectrum of interest. Despite these challenges, Starlink’s aggressive strategy and innovative technology have placed it light years ahead of competitors like <a href="https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-23-114A1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Amazon’s Kuiper</a> and Eutelsat’s <a href="https://oneweb.net/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">OneWeb</a>. As of January 2025, Amazon's <a href="https://techxplore.com/news/2024-07-amazon-kuiper-delays-satellite-timeline.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Project Kuiper has not yet launched</a> any operational satellites, including those with Direct-to-Cell (D2C) capabilities. The project is still in development, with plans to deploy a constellation of 3,236 LEO satellites to provide global broadband coverage. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">One of the most remarkable aspects of Starlink’s success is its ability to build a functional global network without initial access to the necessary spectrum. This bold approach has drawn comparisons to Jeff Bezos’ Kuiper project, with Strand Consult humorously observing that while Bezos is still setting up a “burger bar,” Musk is already running an “interstellar McDonald’s.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">In the report you can read about the companies that are advancing D2C connectivity through LEO satellite constellations, aiming to connect standard mobile devices directly to satellites. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">Among them, <a href="https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-24-756A1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AST SpaceMobile</a> has launched five operational satellites, detailed in FCC filings, to deliver 4G and 5G services globally, with plans to expand its network with up to 243 satellites. AST SpaceMobile's advanced phased-array antenna, <a href="https://ast-science.com/spacemobile-network/bluewalker-3/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BlueWalker 3</a>, is one of the most powerful in the industry required to deliver good quality services to unmodified cellular consumer devices. Similarly, <a href="https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-22-969A1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lynk Global</a> has deployed satellites to provide coverage in remote areas, emphasizing partnerships with telecom operators and regulatory approvals.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.geespace.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Geespace</a>, part of Geely Technology Group, has launched 30 satellites in China and plans to expand to 72 by 2025, targeting global broadband and D2C capabilities. The <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/china-launches-first-satellites-constellation-rival-starlink-newspaper-reports-2024-08-05/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Qianfan ("Thousand Sails") constellation</a>, in intent and capabilities closest to SpaceX, is another Chinese initiative that has deployed 54 satellites and aims for over 15,000 by 2030, positioning itself as a major player in satellite-based communications. US and Chinese initiatives drive significant advancements in D2C technology, integrating satellite connectivity into everyday communications and addressing global coverage challenges.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">Some Takeaways.</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">Direct-to-Cell LEO satellite networks face considerable technology hurdles in providing services comparable to terrestrial cellular networks.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
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<li class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">They must overcome substantial free-space path loss</span></strong><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> and ensure uplink connectivity from low-power mobile devices with omnidirectional antennas.</span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">Cellular devices transmit at low power (typically 23–30 dBm), making it <strong>very challenging for uplink cellular signals</strong> to reach satellites in LEO at 300–1,200 km altitudes, particularly if the cellular device is indoor.</span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">Uplink signals from multiple devices within a satellite beam area can overlap, creating <strong>interference that challenges the satellite’s ability to separate and process individual uplink signals</strong>.</span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">Must address bandwidth limitations</span></strong><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> and efficiently reuse spectrum while minimizing interference with terrestrial and other satellite networks.</span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">Scaling globally may <strong>require satellites to carry varied payload configurations to accommodate regional spectrum requirements</strong>, increasing technical complexity and deployment expenses.</span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">Operating on terrestrial frequencies <strong>necessitates dynamic spectrum sharing and interference mitigation strategies</strong>, especially in densely populated areas, limiting coverage efficiency and capacity.</span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></li>
</ul>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">On the regulatory front, integrating D2C satellite services into existing mobile ecosystems is complex. Spectrum licensing is a key issue, as satellite operators must either share frequencies already allocated to terrestrial mobile operators or secure dedicated satellite spectrum.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<ul style="margin-top: 0cm;" type="square">
<li class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">Securing access to shared or dedicated spectrum</span></strong><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">, particularly negotiating with terrestrial operators to use licensed frequencies.</span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">Avoiding interference</span></strong><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> between satellite and terrestrial networks requires detailed agreements and advanced spectrum management techniques.</span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">Navigating fragmented regulatory frameworks</span></strong><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> in Europe, where national licensing requirements vary significantly.</span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">The high administrative and operational <strong>burden of scaling globally</strong> diminishes economic benefits, particularly in regions where terrestrial networks already dominate.</span></li>
</ul>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">The idea of D2C-capable satellite networks making terrestrial cellular networks obsolete is ambitious but fraught with practical limitations. While LEO satellites offer unparalleled reach in remote and underserved areas, they struggle to match terrestrial networks’ capacity, reliability, and low latency in urban and suburban environments. The high density of base stations in terrestrial networks enables them to handle far greater traffic volumes, especially for data-intensive applications.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">The regulatory and operational constraints surrounding using terrestrial mobile frequencies for D2C services severely limit scalability. This fragmentation makes it difficult to achieve global coverage seamlessly and increases operational and economic inefficiencies. While D2C services hold promise for addressing connectivity gaps in remote areas, their ability to scale as a comprehensive alternative to terrestrial networks is hampered by these challenges. Unless global regulatory harmonization or innovative technical solutions emerge, D2C networks will likely remain a complementary, sub-scale solution rather than a standalone replacement for terrestrial mobile networks.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">The report </span><strong><em><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">"Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?"</span></em></strong><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> is valuable for mobile operators and their shareholders, policymakers, security and defense analysts, network engineers, and other professionals. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">Let me know your feedback and questions. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">Best regards,</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">John Strand</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; color: black;">Strand Consult is an independent, privately owned consultancy company. Our main focus is in the wireless sector, what it looks like, how it is developing and how it influences a number of other sectors. Through our research, reports, workshops and consulting, we help create and expand our customers’ revenue streams by maximising the use of all the new possibilities and opportunities that arise with new technologies and business strategies. </span><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; color: black;"><a href="http://www.strandreports.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span style="color: blue;">About Strand Consult </span></a></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; color: black;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; color: black;">Our primary customers are national and international mobile operators and our list of customers currently includes over 170 mobile operators spread across Europe, South America, North America, Australia, Asia and Africa. Based on our research and work with mobile operators we additionally help many customers in the technology industry and the media sector who want to learn more about how the telecom industry is influencing their industry. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; color: black;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; color: black;">We are regarded as one of the leading authorities on mobile technologies, business and revenue models and distribution strategies. Our reports are both strategic and cross-disciplinary in their outlook. They do not focus on a single area, but always examine subjects from five different angles; operators, technology providers, distribution, content providers and which existing or new business strategies will have the greatest probability of being successful. Most of our customers have saved a great deal of money on consultancy services by purchasing and using our strategic reports. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; color: black;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; color: black;">Strand Consult is the supplier of some of the most sought after lecturers in the mobile world. We frequently speak at a great number of the International conferences about the mobile and media world and how they will develop in the future. You can read more about which conferences we will be speaking at on our website </span><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; color: black;"><a href="http://www.strandconsult.dk/sw484.asp" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span style="color: blue;">Conferences </span></a></span></p>
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