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<p>I've been asked a few times what user experience is like with the
Starlink cellular service now available through One NZ (formerly
Vodafone) in New Zealand.</p>
<p>The short answer is that I don't know (any users). <br>
</p>
<p>What I do know is that in November, the NZ Commerce Commission
filed criminal charges against One NZ over their advertising of
"100% mobile coverage":</p>
<p><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://comcom.govt.nz/news-and-media/media-releases/2024/comcom-takes-legal-action-over-one-nzs-100-coverage-claims-for-spacex-service">https://comcom.govt.nz/news-and-media/media-releases/2024/comcom-takes-legal-action-over-one-nzs-100-coverage-claims-for-spacex-service</a></p>
<p>Yep they ran TV ads. The service launched to great fanfare in
December. TXT only of course. Now the information about the
satellite service is almost a bit difficult to find on the One NZ
website.</p>
<p>It gets weirder, though. The only phones approved for the service
at the moment are their top end Android models, with 8 Samsung and
one OPPO model approved as of this morning. No iphones. Of the 8
Samsung models, three are from the S25 series and can only be
pre-ordered. Two are from the S23 series, and aren't available for
sale on their website. In the small print, it says "Phones
purchased outside of New Zealand (including parallel imports) may
not be compatible." Read: If you didn't buy your phone from us,
we're under no obligation to make it work. I guess this probably
means that if you bought your high end phone from a discounter
(parallel import), then its IMEI won't be on One NZ's approved
list. Given that the newly approved phones that aren't for sale
anymore were several hundred dollars cheaper at the parallel
import discounters, it's probably a good guess that there aren't
all that many One NZ devices from that range out there.</p>
<p>Now just buying one of these devices from them doesn't get you
the service though. You also need a 36 month plan from them. These
come essentially in two sizes. One that starts at about twice the
rate of the monthly prepay plan that keeps me chugging over here.
If you want that, you have to pay a premium on the phone. The
other is about three times the rate and gets you the phone
cheapest (but still hundreds of bucks more than at the parallel
importers).</p>
<p>But let's assume you have all that in place. Now where do you go
to try it all out? This isn't the US. One NZ's terrestrial network
covers almost everywhere with people or roads. Look for yourself:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://one.nz/network/coverage/">https://one.nz/network/coverage/</a></p>
<p>Those who go where it doesn't reach tend to be tourists, poor as
mice, or farmers with land mobile radio. None of them are likely
buyers of high end phones or can afford an expensive contract.</p>
<p>But even if they do get to TXT, in One NZ's own words:</p>
<p>
<blockquote type="cite">One NZ Satellite TXT offers an extra layer
of protection to existing safety devices. If you're planning a
visit to somewhere remote, it's always recommended to take a <em>personal
locator beacon</em> in case of emergency.</blockquote>
I have one of these. Cost about the difference between an eligible
phone and its parallel import version, and doesn't need a
contract. A mate of mine works next door to the NZ Rescue
Coordination Centre and says they're now rescuing people where
previously they wouldn't have even found the bodies.<br>
</p>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 30/01/2025 3:05 am, David Lang via
Starlink wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite" cite="mid:np21s3p1-58p0-o2s1-7s2q-pr9r469p2nq5@ynat.uz">as I wrote
back in 2013
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.usenix.org/publications/login/april-2013-volume-38-number-2/wireless-means-radio">https://www.usenix.org/publications/login/april-2013-volume-38-number-2/wireless-means-radio</a><br>
when you have a lot of people to support, airtime is your most
limiting factor, the smaller the area you are covering from one
station, the more users you can support
<br>
<br>
So just like cell phone companies deploy microcells in dense
cities, the regular cell service are microcells compared to
anything you can do from orbit.
<br>
<br>
But it may be tht traditional mobile networks won't have to setup
stations every few miles along highways and can just concentrate
on the denser areas (which are also cheaper to serve)
<br>
<br>
now to go read the pdf ;-)
<br>
<br>
David Lang
<br>
<br>
On Wed, 29 Jan 2025, Hesham ElBakoury via Starlink wrote:
<br>
<br>
<blockquote type="cite">Date: Wed, 29 Jan 2025 04:29:45 -0800
<br>
From: Hesham ElBakoury via Starlink
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net"><starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net></a>
<br>
Reply-To: Hesham ElBakoury <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:helbakoury@gmail.com"><helbakoury@gmail.com></a>
<br>
To: Dave Taht via Starlink
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net"><starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net></a>,
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:5grm-satellite@ieee.org">5grm-satellite@ieee.org</a>
<br>
Subject: [Starlink] Fwd: Here is the first edition of the
report: Will LEO
<br>
Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional
Mobile Networks
<br>
Obsolete?
<br>
<br>
---------- Forwarded message ---------
<br>
From: John Strand <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:js@strandconsult.dk"><js@strandconsult.dk></a>
<br>
Date: Wed, Jan 29, 2025, 4:23 AM
<br>
Subject: Here is the first edition of the report: Will LEO
Satellite
<br>
Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks
Obsolete?
<br>
To: <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:info@strandconsult.dk"><info@strandconsult.dk></a>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Dear Colleague,
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Here is the first edition of the report: *“Will LEO Satellite
<br>
Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks
Obsolete?”*
<br>
The report is a part of a signature series in Strand Consult´s
Global
<br>
Project for Business Models for Broadband Cost Recovery
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="https://strandconsult.dk/category/fair-cost-recovery/"><https://strandconsult.dk/category/fair-cost-recovery/></a>.
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
This new report offers a comprehensive analysis of the role of
Low-Earth
<br>
Orbit (LEO) satellites in the telecommunications industry. It
examines the
<br>
advancements in satellite technology, the challenges in
achieving service
<br>
parity with terrestrial networks, and the implications for
global
<br>
connectivity. It explores the technical, economic, and
regulatory factors
<br>
shaping the deployment of Direct-to-Cell satellite services and
evaluates
<br>
whether these networks can complement or replace traditional
cellular
<br>
infrastructure.
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
This report aims to illuminate the forces driving developments
in LEO
<br>
satellite networks, the challenges they face, and how these
technologies
<br>
will likely shape the telecommunications industry's future. It
aims to
<br>
provide inspiration and insights that can be used to frame
discussions
<br>
about the trends and transformations affecting connectivity on a
global
<br>
scale.
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
When reading recent media and comments on various media
postings, one can
<br>
quickly get the impression that satellites will replace
traditional mobile
<br>
networks. This narrative often simplifies a complex issue,
creating the
<br>
perception that satellite technology is a universal solution to
global
<br>
connectivity challenges. However, a more pragmatic view reveals
that
<br>
satellite networks like those operated by Starlink offer
revolutionary
<br>
opportunities but are unlikely to make terrestrial mobile
networks
<br>
obsolete. Instead, these technologies will coexist, each serving
distinct
<br>
roles in the communication ecosystem.
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
There are many mobile telecom operators which fear that low
earth orbit
<br>
(LEO) satellite networks like Starlink and others could impact
their
<br>
business in a negative way like over the top (OTT) providers.
Indeed, there
<br>
is a concern about traffic and revenue moving away from mobile
networks to
<br>
providers which do not have the same regulatory obligations or
cost
<br>
structure. For example, in some countries, some LEO satellite
providers do
<br>
not pay for the use of radio spectrum. These are important
issues to
<br>
examine in their short, medium and long term impacts.
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Strand Consult’s global project for Broadband Cost Recovery and
Business
<br>
Models
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="https://strandconsult.dk/category/fair-cost-recovery/"><https://strandconsult.dk/category/fair-cost-recovery/></a>
examines the
<br>
challenges for mobile telecom operators to build and run
networks and the
<br>
set of solutions to improve return on investment. A key region
impacted by
<br>
LEO satellites is the Caribbean. Strand Consult’s report
*“Gigabit
<br>
Caribbean: Closing the Investment Gap in Fixed and Mobile
Networks”
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="https://strandconsult.dk/gigabit-caribbean-closing-the-investment-gap-in-fixed-and-mobile-networks/"><https://strandconsult.dk/gigabit-caribbean-closing-the-investment-gap-in-fixed-and-mobile-networks/></a>
<br>
*describes the inherent challenge to deliver return on
investment in remote
<br>
areas with limited population and in the face of growing traffic
from
<br>
outside providers which contribute zero financially to the local
economy.
<br>
LEO satellites may be a double-edged sword in that they may
provide
<br>
connectivity in an emergency, but they do not conform to local
regulatory
<br>
requirements, nor do they participate locally financially. The
issue is
<br>
also relevant for rural broadband providers in the USA which
Strand Consult
<br>
documented in its report “Broadband Cost Recovery: A Study of
Business
<br>
Models for 50 Broadband Providers In 24 US States.”
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="https://strandconsult.dk/broadband-cost-recovery-a-study-of-50-broadband-providers-in-24-us-states-new-report-from-strand-consult/"><https://strandconsult.dk/broadband-cost-recovery-a-study-of-50-broadband-providers-in-24-us-states-new-report-from-strand-consult/></a>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
*The Satellite Race to Reach the Phone.*
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Among the various players in the Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite
market,
<br>
Starlink
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-24-1193A1.pdf"><https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-24-1193A1.pdf></a>,
led by
<br>
Elon Musk’s SpaceX, has emerged as the frontrunner. With a
network of
<br>
almost 7,000 satellites operating, 300+ (2nd generation or Gen2)
satellites
<br>
have Direct-to-Cell capabilities
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="https://www.theverge.com/2024/11/27/24307394/starlink-spacex-tmobile-direct-to-cell-satellite-fcc-approval?"><https://www.theverge.com/2024/11/27/24307394/starlink-spacex-tmobile-direct-to-cell-satellite-fcc-approval?></a>.
<br>
SpaceX's spectrum regulatory approach outside the U.S. has been
criticized
<br>
for not always adhering to local licensing frameworks (e.g.,
cases in
<br>
India, France, and South Africa). Its reliance on spectrum that
local
<br>
regulators have not officially granted can create tensions with
governments
<br>
and local telecom providers. Starlink operates a global
satellite network
<br>
with thousands of satellites covering areas without always
having lawful
<br>
access to the spectrum on which it provides services.
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
This is an even more significant challenge regarding the regular
cellular
<br>
spectrum used for traditional mobile cellular services licensed
and used by
<br>
local telecommunication companies. Thus, it requires, at least,
the
<br>
satellite operator to collaborate locally with telco operators
who have the
<br>
usage rights of the cellular spectrum of interest. Despite these
<br>
challenges, Starlink’s aggressive strategy and innovative
technology have
<br>
placed it light years ahead of competitors like Amazon’s Kuiper
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-23-114A1.pdf"><https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-23-114A1.pdf></a>
and Eutelsat’s
<br>
OneWeb <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="https://oneweb.net/"><https://oneweb.net/></a>. As of January 2025, Amazon's
Project Kuiper
<br>
has not yet launched
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="https://techxplore.com/news/2024-07-amazon-kuiper-delays-satellite-timeline.html"><https://techxplore.com/news/2024-07-amazon-kuiper-delays-satellite-timeline.html></a>
<br>
any operational satellites, including those with Direct-to-Cell
(D2C)
<br>
capabilities. The project is still in development, with plans to
deploy a
<br>
constellation of 3,236 LEO satellites to provide global
broadband coverage.
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
One of the most remarkable aspects of Starlink’s success is its
ability to
<br>
build a functional global network without initial access to the
necessary
<br>
spectrum. This bold approach has drawn comparisons to Jeff
Bezos’ Kuiper
<br>
project, with Strand Consult humorously observing that while
Bezos is still
<br>
setting up a “burger bar,” Musk is already running an
“interstellar
<br>
McDonald’s.
<br>
<br>
In the report you can read about the companies that are
advancing D2C
<br>
connectivity through LEO satellite constellations, aiming to
connect
<br>
standard mobile devices directly to satellites.
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Among them, AST SpaceMobile
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-24-756A1.pdf"><https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-24-756A1.pdf></a>
has launched five
<br>
operational satellites, detailed in FCC filings, to deliver 4G
and 5G
<br>
services globally, with plans to expand its network with up to
243
<br>
satellites. AST SpaceMobile's advanced phased-array antenna,
BlueWalker 3
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="https://ast-science.com/spacemobile-network/bluewalker-3/"><https://ast-science.com/spacemobile-network/bluewalker-3/></a>, is
one of the
<br>
most powerful in the industry required to deliver good quality
services to
<br>
unmodified cellular consumer devices. Similarly, Lynk Global
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-22-969A1.pdf"><https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-22-969A1.pdf></a>
has deployed
<br>
satellites to provide coverage in remote areas, emphasizing
partnerships
<br>
with telecom operators and regulatory approvals.
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Geespace <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="https://www.geespace.com/"><https://www.geespace.com/></a>, part of Geely
Technology Group, has
<br>
launched 30 satellites in China and plans to expand to 72 by
2025,
<br>
targeting global broadband and D2C capabilities. The Qianfan
("Thousand
<br>
Sails") constellation
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/china-launches-first-satellites-constellation-rival-starlink-newspaper-reports-2024-08-05/"><https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/china-launches-first-satellites-constellation-rival-starlink-newspaper-reports-2024-08-05/></a>,
<br>
in intent and capabilities closest to SpaceX, is another Chinese
initiative
<br>
that has deployed 54 satellites and aims for over 15,000 by
2030,
<br>
positioning itself as a major player in satellite-based
communications. US
<br>
and Chinese initiatives drive significant advancements in D2C
technology,
<br>
integrating satellite connectivity into everyday communications
and
<br>
addressing global coverage challenges.
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
*Some Takeaways.*
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Direct-to-Cell LEO satellite networks face considerable
technology hurdles
<br>
in providing services comparable to terrestrial cellular
networks.
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
- *They must overcome substantial free-space path loss* and
ensure
<br>
uplink connectivity from low-power mobile devices with
omnidirectional
<br>
antennas.
<br>
- Cellular devices transmit at low power (typically 23–30
dBm), making
<br>
it *very challenging for uplink cellular signals* to reach
satellites in
<br>
LEO at 300–1,200 km altitudes, particularly if the cellular
device is
<br>
indoor.
<br>
- Uplink signals from multiple devices within a satellite beam
area can
<br>
overlap, creating *interference that challenges the
satellite’s ability
<br>
to separate and process individual uplink signals*.
<br>
- *Must address bandwidth limitations* and efficiently reuse
spectrum
<br>
while minimizing interference with terrestrial and other
satellite networks.
<br>
- Scaling globally may *require satellites to carry varied
payload
<br>
configurations to accommodate regional spectrum requirements*,
<br>
increasing technical complexity and deployment expenses.
<br>
- Operating on terrestrial frequencies *necessitates dynamic
spectrum
<br>
sharing and interference mitigation strategies*, especially in
densely
<br>
populated areas, limiting coverage efficiency and capacity.
<br>
-
<br>
<br>
On the regulatory front, integrating D2C satellite services into
existing
<br>
mobile ecosystems is complex. Spectrum licensing is a key issue,
as
<br>
satellite operators must either share frequencies already
allocated to
<br>
terrestrial mobile operators or secure dedicated satellite
spectrum.
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
- *Securing access to shared or dedicated spectrum*,
particularly
<br>
negotiating with terrestrial operators to use licensed
frequencies.
<br>
- *Avoiding interference* between satellite and terrestrial
networks
<br>
requires detailed agreements and advanced spectrum management
techniques.
<br>
- *Navigating fragmented regulatory frameworks* in Europe,
where
<br>
national licensing requirements vary significantly.
<br>
- The high administrative and operational *burden of scaling
<br>
globally* diminishes
<br>
economic benefits, particularly in regions where terrestrial
networks
<br>
already dominate.
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
The idea of D2C-capable satellite networks making terrestrial
cellular
<br>
networks obsolete is ambitious but fraught with practical
limitations.
<br>
While LEO satellites offer unparalleled reach in remote and
underserved
<br>
areas, they struggle to match terrestrial networks’ capacity,
reliability,
<br>
and low latency in urban and suburban environments. The high
density of
<br>
base stations in terrestrial networks enables them to handle far
greater
<br>
traffic volumes, especially for data-intensive applications.
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
The regulatory and operational constraints surrounding using
terrestrial
<br>
mobile frequencies for D2C services severely limit scalability.
This
<br>
fragmentation makes it difficult to achieve global coverage
seamlessly and
<br>
increases operational and economic inefficiencies. While D2C
services hold
<br>
promise for addressing connectivity gaps in remote areas, their
ability to
<br>
scale as a comprehensive alternative to terrestrial networks is
hampered by
<br>
these challenges. Unless global regulatory harmonization or
innovative
<br>
technical solutions emerge, D2C networks will likely remain a
<br>
complementary, sub-scale solution rather than a standalone
replacement for
<br>
terrestrial mobile networks.
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
The report *"Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make
<br>
Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?"* is valuable for mobile
operators
<br>
and their shareholders, policymakers, security and defense
analysts,
<br>
network engineers, and other professionals.
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Let me know your feedback and questions.
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Best regards,
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
John Strand
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Strand Consult is an independent, privately owned consultancy
company. Our
<br>
main focus is in the wireless sector, what it looks like, how it
is
<br>
developing and how it influences a number of other sectors.
Through our
<br>
research, reports, workshops and consulting, we help create and
expand our
<br>
customers’ revenue streams by maximising the use of all the new
<br>
possibilities and opportunities that arise with new technologies
and
<br>
business strategies. About Strand Consult
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="http://www.strandreports.com"><http://www.strandreports.com></a>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Our primary customers are national and international mobile
operators and
<br>
our list of customers currently includes over 170 mobile
operators spread
<br>
across Europe, South America, North America, Australia, Asia and
Africa.
<br>
Based on our research and work with mobile operators we
additionally help
<br>
many customers in the technology industry and the media sector
who want to
<br>
learn more about how the telecom industry is influencing their
industry.
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
We are regarded as one of the leading authorities on mobile
technologies,
<br>
business and revenue models and distribution strategies. Our
reports are
<br>
both strategic and cross-disciplinary in their outlook. They do
not focus
<br>
on a single area, but always examine subjects from five
different angles;
<br>
operators, technology providers, distribution, content providers
and which
<br>
existing or new business strategies will have the greatest
probability of
<br>
being successful. Most of our customers have saved a great deal
of money on
<br>
consultancy services by purchasing and using our strategic
reports.
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Strand Consult is the supplier of some of the most sought after
lecturers
<br>
in the mobile world. We frequently speak at a great number of
the
<br>
International conferences about the mobile and media world and
how they
<br>
will develop in the future. You can read more about which
conferences we
<br>
will be speaking at on our website Conferences
<br>
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="http://www.strandconsult.dk/sw484.asp"><http://www.strandconsult.dk/sw484.asp></a>
<br>
<br>
</blockquote>
<br>
<fieldset class="moz-mime-attachment-header"></fieldset>
<pre wrap="" class="moz-quote-pre">_______________________________________________
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<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink">https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink</a>
</pre>
</blockquote>
<pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">--
****************************************************************
Dr. Ulrich Speidel
School of Computer Science
Room 303S.594 (City Campus)
The University of Auckland
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz">u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz</a>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/">http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/</a>
****************************************************************
</pre>
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