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<p>Read: cheap phones have noisy receivers or crappy antennas,
right?</p>
<p>The macro cell effect you describe is well known here - I
typically teach this in class to my students here in Auckland.
Many of them live in the CBD, where there's a 5G mast at every
corner, so their batteries last forever. I then ask them whether
they've ever driven down to Wellington (700 km or so through some
fairly wap-wappy stretches of road) and quite a few hands go up. I
then ask them whether anyone noticed that their phone battery went
flat on the trip and most of the same hands go up. In fact, I
suspect that the Wellington branch of a major parallel import
discounter here does half of its business with folk who've driven
down and think their battery is broken and they need a new phone.<br>
</p>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 30/01/2025 4:27 pm, Mike Puchol via
Starlink wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite" cite="mid:1326178528.539855.1738207659214@www.openxchange.eu">
<div> The report touches on the thorny topic of the uplink,
however, IMHO it leaves out one important consideration: battery
life. The assumptions on link budget work on the basis of the UE
employing full power at the full duty cycle, which would result
in a dramatic reduction in battery life of the device. </div>
<div class="default-style"> </div>
<div class="default-style"> If you have traveled to certain
African countries, where mobile networks rely on large and macro
cells, rather than densification (for cost reasons), you will
have already experienced this, where your smartphone's battery
seems to die faster (it does!), as it's working harder to reach
the towers. </div>
<div class="default-style"> </div>
<div class="default-style"> I'll add to this something that Loon
learned, and which was published in the Loon Library (page 180),
in regards to the quality of devices found in the field: </div>
<div class="default-style"> </div>
<div class="default-style"> "An issue with these low-priced phones
is that their LTE radio performance is significantly worse than
the phones Loon used during the development and testing of its <br>
LTE subsystems. This performance readjusted Loon’s expectations
for the number <br>
of users that could be serviced, the number of GBs that could be
delivered, and from <br>
which environments the users could successfully connect to
Loon." </div>
<div class="default-style"> </div>
<div class="default-style"> It is a fascinating read: <a href="https://storage.googleapis.com/x-prod.appspot.com/files/The%20Loon%20Library.pdf" moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://storage.googleapis.com/x-prod.appspot.com/files/The%20Loon%20Library.pdf</a>
</div>
<div class="default-style"> </div>
<div class="default-style"> Best, </div>
<div class="default-style"> </div>
<div class="default-style"> Mike </div>
<div class="default-style"> </div>
<blockquote type="cite">
<div> On 29/01/2025 14:09 CET Vint Cerf via Starlink
<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net"><starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net></a> wrote: </div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div dir="ltr"> thanks for sharing this analysis with which I
resonate. I doubt that the LEO constellations will scale to
the same extent that ground-based cellular systems have.
However, they will take some traffic. Prices might also be an
issue. Interestingly, video conferencing over the Internet is
a substitute for traditional telephony and comes naturally
thanks to the digital nature of the transmission.
<div> </div>
<div> v </div>
<div> </div>
</div>
<br>
<div class="gmail_quote gmail_quote_container">
<div class="gmail_attr" dir="ltr"> On Wed, Jan 29, 2025 at
7:30 AM Hesham ElBakoury via Starlink <<a href="mailto:starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net" moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net</a>>
wrote: </div>
<blockquote>
<div dir="auto"> </div>
<br>
<div class="gmail_quote">
<div class="gmail_attr" dir="ltr"> ---------- Forwarded
message --------- <br>
From: <strong class="gmail_sendername" dir="auto">John
Strand</strong> <span dir="auto"><<a href="mailto:js@strandconsult.dk" target="_blank" rel="noopener" moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">js@strandconsult.dk</a>></span>
<br>
Date: Wed, Jan 29, 2025, 4:23 AM <br>
Subject: Here is the first edition of the report: Will
LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make
Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete? <br>
To: <<a href="mailto:info@strandconsult.dk" target="_blank" rel="noopener" moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">info@strandconsult.dk</a>>
</div>
<br>
<br>
<div style="overflow-wrap: break-word;">
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">Dear
Colleague,</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">Here is the
first edition of the report: <strong>“Will LEO
Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make
Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?”</strong>
The report is a part of a signature series in
Strand Consult´s <a href="https://strandconsult.dk/category/fair-cost-recovery/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" moz-do-not-send="true">Global Project for
Business Models for Broadband Cost Recovery</a>.
</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">This new
report offers a comprehensive analysis of the role
of Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites in the
telecommunications industry. It examines the
advancements in satellite technology, the
challenges in achieving service parity with
terrestrial networks, and the implications for
global connectivity. It explores the technical,
economic, and regulatory factors shaping the
deployment of Direct-to-Cell satellite services
and evaluates whether these networks can
complement or replace traditional cellular
infrastructure.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">This report
aims to illuminate the forces driving developments
in LEO satellite networks, the challenges they
face, and how these technologies will likely shape
the telecommunications industry's future. It aims
to provide inspiration and insights that can be
used to frame discussions about the trends and
transformations affecting connectivity on a global
scale.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">When
reading recent media and comments on various media
postings, one can quickly get the impression that
satellites will replace traditional mobile
networks. This narrative often simplifies a
complex issue, creating the perception that
satellite technology is a universal solution to
global connectivity challenges. However, a more
pragmatic view reveals that satellite networks
like those operated by Starlink offer
revolutionary opportunities but are unlikely to
make terrestrial mobile networks obsolete.
Instead, these technologies will coexist, each
serving distinct roles in the communication
ecosystem.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">There are
many mobile telecom operators which fear that low
earth orbit (LEO) satellite networks like Starlink
and others could impact their business in a
negative way like over the top (OTT) providers.
Indeed, there is a concern about traffic and
revenue moving away from mobile networks to
providers which do not have the same regulatory
obligations or cost structure. For example, in
some countries, some LEO satellite providers do
not pay for the use of radio spectrum. These are
important issues to examine in their short, medium
and long term impacts. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">Strand
Consult’s global project for <a href="https://strandconsult.dk/category/fair-cost-recovery/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" moz-do-not-send="true">Broadband Cost Recovery
and Business Models</a> examines the challenges
for mobile telecom operators to build and run
networks and the set of solutions to improve
return on investment. A key region impacted by
LEO satellites is the Caribbean. Strand Consult’s
report <em><a href="https://strandconsult.dk/gigabit-caribbean-closing-the-investment-gap-in-fixed-and-mobile-networks/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" moz-do-not-send="true">“Gigabit Caribbean:
Closing the Investment Gap in Fixed and Mobile
Networks<span style="font-style: normal;">”</span></a>
</em>describes the inherent challenge to deliver
return on investment in remote areas with limited
population and in the face of growing traffic from
outside providers which contribute zero
financially to the local economy. LEO satellites
may be a double-edged sword in that they may
provide connectivity in an emergency, but they do
not conform to local regulatory requirements, nor
do they participate locally financially. The
issue is also relevant for rural broadband
providers in the USA which Strand Consult
documented in its report <a href="https://strandconsult.dk/broadband-cost-recovery-a-study-of-50-broadband-providers-in-24-us-states-new-report-from-strand-consult/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" moz-do-not-send="true">“Broadband Cost Recovery:
A Study of Business Models for 50 Broadband
Providers In 24 US States.”</a></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">The
Satellite Race to Reach the Phone.</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">Among the
various players in the Low-Earth Orbit (LEO)
satellite market, <a href="https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-24-1193A1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener" moz-do-not-send="true">Starlink</a>, led by Elon
Musk’s SpaceX, has emerged as the frontrunner.
With a network of almost 7,000 satellites
operating, 300+ (2<sup>nd</sup> generation or
Gen2) satellites have <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2024/11/27/24307394/starlink-spacex-tmobile-direct-to-cell-satellite-fcc-approval" target="_blank" rel="noopener" moz-do-not-send="true">Direct-to-Cell
capabilities</a>. SpaceX's spectrum regulatory
approach outside the U.S. has been criticized for
not always adhering to local licensing frameworks
(e.g., cases in India, France, and South Africa).
Its reliance on spectrum that local regulators
have not officially granted can create tensions
with governments and local telecom providers.
Starlink operates a global satellite network with
thousands of satellites covering areas without
always having lawful access to the spectrum on
which it provides services. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">This is an
even more significant challenge regarding the
regular cellular spectrum used for traditional
mobile cellular services licensed and used by
local telecommunication companies. Thus, it
requires, at least, the satellite operator to
collaborate locally with telco operators who have
the usage rights of the cellular spectrum of
interest. Despite these challenges, Starlink’s
aggressive strategy and innovative technology have
placed it light years ahead of competitors like <a href="https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-23-114A1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener" moz-do-not-send="true">Amazon’s Kuiper</a> and
Eutelsat’s <a href="https://oneweb.net/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" moz-do-not-send="true">OneWeb</a>. As of January
2025, Amazon's <a href="https://techxplore.com/news/2024-07-amazon-kuiper-delays-satellite-timeline.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener" moz-do-not-send="true">Project Kuiper has not
yet launched</a> any operational satellites,
including those with Direct-to-Cell (D2C)
capabilities. The project is still in development,
with plans to deploy a constellation of 3,236 LEO
satellites to provide global broadband coverage. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">One of the
most remarkable aspects of Starlink’s success is
its ability to build a functional global network
without initial access to the necessary spectrum.
This bold approach has drawn comparisons to Jeff
Bezos’ Kuiper project, with Strand Consult
humorously observing that while Bezos is still
setting up a “burger bar,” Musk is already running
an “interstellar McDonald’s.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">In the
report you can read about the companies that are
advancing D2C connectivity through LEO satellite
constellations, aiming to connect standard mobile
devices directly to satellites. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">Among them,
<a href="https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-24-756A1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener" moz-do-not-send="true">AST SpaceMobile</a> has
launched five operational satellites, detailed in
FCC filings, to deliver 4G and 5G services
globally, with plans to expand its network with up
to 243 satellites. AST SpaceMobile's advanced
phased-array antenna, <a href="https://ast-science.com/spacemobile-network/bluewalker-3/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" moz-do-not-send="true">BlueWalker 3</a>, is one
of the most powerful in the industry required to
deliver good quality services to unmodified
cellular consumer devices. Similarly, <a href="https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-22-969A1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener" moz-do-not-send="true">Lynk Global</a> has
deployed satellites to provide coverage in remote
areas, emphasizing partnerships with telecom
operators and regulatory approvals.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.geespace.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" moz-do-not-send="true">Geespace</a>,
part of Geely Technology Group, has launched 30
satellites in China and plans to expand to 72 by
2025, targeting global broadband and D2C
capabilities. The <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/china-launches-first-satellites-constellation-rival-starlink-newspaper-reports-2024-08-05/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" moz-do-not-send="true">Qianfan ("Thousand
Sails") constellation</a>, in intent and
capabilities closest to SpaceX, is another Chinese
initiative that has deployed 54 satellites and
aims for over 15,000 by 2030, positioning itself
as a major player in satellite-based
communications. US and Chinese initiatives drive
significant advancements in D2C technology,
integrating satellite connectivity into everyday
communications and addressing global coverage
challenges.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">Some
Takeaways.</span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">Direct-to-Cell
LEO satellite networks face considerable
technology hurdles in providing services
comparable to terrestrial cellular networks.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<ul style="margin-top: 0cm;" type="square">
<li class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">They
must overcome substantial free-space path loss</span></strong><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> and
ensure uplink connectivity from low-power mobile
devices with omnidirectional antennas.</span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">Cellular
devices transmit at low power (typically 23–30
dBm), making it <strong>very challenging for
uplink cellular signals</strong> to reach
satellites in LEO at 300–1,200 km altitudes,
particularly if the cellular device is indoor.</span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">Uplink
signals from multiple devices within a satellite
beam area can overlap, creating <strong>interference
that challenges the satellite’s ability to
separate and process individual uplink signals</strong>.</span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">Must
address bandwidth limitations</span></strong><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> and
efficiently reuse spectrum while minimizing
interference with terrestrial and other
satellite networks.</span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">Scaling
globally may <strong>require satellites to carry
varied payload configurations to accommodate
regional spectrum requirements</strong>,
increasing technical complexity and deployment
expenses.</span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">Operating
on terrestrial frequencies <strong>necessitates
dynamic spectrum sharing and interference
mitigation strategies</strong>, especially in
densely populated areas, limiting coverage
efficiency and capacity.</span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></li>
</ul>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">On the
regulatory front, integrating D2C satellite
services into existing mobile ecosystems is
complex. Spectrum licensing is a key issue, as
satellite operators must either share frequencies
already allocated to terrestrial mobile operators
or secure dedicated satellite spectrum.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 36pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<ul style="margin-top: 0cm;" type="square">
<li class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">Securing
access to shared or dedicated spectrum</span></strong><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">,
particularly negotiating with terrestrial
operators to use licensed frequencies.</span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">Avoiding
interference</span></strong><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> between
satellite and terrestrial networks requires
detailed agreements and advanced spectrum
management techniques.</span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><strong><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">Navigating
fragmented regulatory frameworks</span></strong><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> in
Europe, where national licensing requirements
vary significantly.</span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">The high
administrative and operational <strong>burden of
scaling globally</strong> diminishes economic
benefits, particularly in regions where
terrestrial networks already dominate.</span></li>
</ul>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">The idea of
D2C-capable satellite networks making terrestrial
cellular networks obsolete is ambitious but
fraught with practical limitations. While LEO
satellites offer unparalleled reach in remote and
underserved areas, they struggle to match
terrestrial networks’ capacity, reliability, and
low latency in urban and suburban environments.
The high density of base stations in terrestrial
networks enables them to handle far greater
traffic volumes, especially for data-intensive
applications.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">The
regulatory and operational constraints surrounding
using terrestrial mobile frequencies for D2C
services severely limit scalability. This
fragmentation makes it difficult to achieve global
coverage seamlessly and increases operational and
economic inefficiencies. While D2C services hold
promise for addressing connectivity gaps in remote
areas, their ability to scale as a comprehensive
alternative to terrestrial networks is hampered by
these challenges. Unless global regulatory
harmonization or innovative technical solutions
emerge, D2C networks will likely remain a
complementary, sub-scale solution rather than a
standalone replacement for terrestrial mobile
networks.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">The report
</span><strong><em><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">"Will
LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make
Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?"</span></em></strong><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> is
valuable for mobile operators and their
shareholders, policymakers, security and defense
analysts, network engineers, and other
professionals. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">Let me know
your feedback and questions. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">Best
regards,</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;">John Strand</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; color: black;">Strand
Consult is an independent, privately owned
consultancy company. Our main focus is in the
wireless sector, what it looks like, how it is
developing and how it influences a number of other
sectors. Through our research, reports, workshops
and consulting, we help create and expand our
customers’ revenue streams by maximising the use
of all the new possibilities and opportunities
that arise with new technologies and business
strategies. </span><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; color: black;"><a href="http://www.strandreports.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener" moz-do-not-send="true"><span style="color: blue;">About Strand Consult </span></a></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; color: black;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; color: black;">Our
primary customers are national and international
mobile operators and our list of customers
currently includes over 170 mobile operators
spread across Europe, South America, North
America, Australia, Asia and Africa. Based on our
research and work with mobile operators we
additionally help many customers in the technology
industry and the media sector who want to learn
more about how the telecom industry is influencing
their industry. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; color: black;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; color: black;">We
are regarded as one of the leading authorities on
mobile technologies, business and revenue models
and distribution strategies. Our reports are both
strategic and cross-disciplinary in their outlook.
They do not focus on a single area, but always
examine subjects from five different angles;
operators, technology providers, distribution,
content providers and which existing or new
business strategies will have the greatest
probability of being successful. Most of our
customers have saved a great deal of money on
consultancy services by purchasing and using our
strategic reports. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; color: black;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; color: black;">Strand
Consult is the supplier of some of the most sought
after lecturers in the mobile world. We frequently
speak at a great number of the International
conferences about the mobile and media world and
how they will develop in the future. You can read
more about which conferences we will be speaking
at on our website </span><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; color: black;"><a href="http://www.strandconsult.dk/sw484.asp" target="_blank" rel="noopener" moz-do-not-send="true"><span style="color: blue;">Conferences </span></a></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Calibri,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Calibri,sans-serif;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> </p>
</div>
</div>
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<pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">--
****************************************************************
Dr. Ulrich Speidel
School of Computer Science
Room 303S.594 (City Campus)
The University of Auckland
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz">u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz</a>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/">http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/</a>
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