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<div class="moz-cite-prefix">Now the interesting thing here is that
with 5 million subscribers paying about US$1200 a year, you'd get
about 6 billion from bog standard dishy end users alone. So that
$8.2b is credible.</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix"><br>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">Note this is revenue, not profit. To
get there, pointing at the other posts today, Starlink had to
build a constellation of about 7,000 satellites. Even if we looked
just at these 7,000 and assumed incorrectly that they all got to
enjoy a full service life of maybe 5 years, we'd be looking at
1,400 of them needing to get replaced each year going forward.
Assuming here 1000 kg per satellite going forward (just ballpark)
and US$1000/kg launch cost. So that's a US$1M replacement cost per
satellite (not even looking at the hardware), and that's got to
come out of those $8.2b. So I guess profit might be closer to the
$6b mark at best in that scenario, and probably nowhere near that
so far due to the fact that SpaceX are launching at well beyond
replacement rate, the launch costs of anything older than Starship
are higher, and the V3's will be closer to 2000 kg than 1000 kg.
So that mightn't leave quite that much change out of the $8.2b to
throw at other projects. But it's certainly looking like a
sustainable business.</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix"><br>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">But then Starlink are growing. I guess
with Elon now being in de-facto control of the FCC, they'll get
what they want, but more sats up there also means having to
replace more eventually. So that cost will go up.<br>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix"><br>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">It then depends on revenue growth, and
that in turn depends on:</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">
<ul>
<li>capacity available to sell and </li>
<li>markets to sell into. </li>
</ul>
And here lies the crux: Capacity comes in two types:</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">
<ol>
<li>Spectral capacity. That's SpaceX's ability to find a
frequency to serve a customer on that isn't already in use in
the customer's neighbourhood.</li>
<li>Beam capacity: The ability to find a spare beam on a
satellite that can be used for that customer. </li>
</ol>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">Now the second one of these is easy to
address - just launch more sats and put more beams on each sat.
But the second capacity is worth nothing in a place where you
don't have the first one, which can't be increased by launching
more satellites - at least not unless they're different ones that
allow for smaller cells and sharper beams. That's a route that
Starlink are trying to go down FAIK, but there's limited growth
potential here. </div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix"><br>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">And looking at the Starlink
availability map, spectral capacity is something they currently
seem to be grappling with in quite a number of places. From the
Greenwich Meridian roughly east, they're "sold out" in: the
greater London area, Accra, Lagos, Benin City, Warri, Port
Harcourt, Abuja, Lusaka, Bulawayo, Harare, Maputo, Nairobi,
Antananarivo, Jakarta, Perth, Manila, Brisbane, Bethel, quite a
lot of areas south of Anchorage, spots around Fairbanks, Delta
Junction, Whitehorse, the Seattle-Portland corridor, Sacramento,
Grande Prairie, Spokane, San Diego, Missoula, Edmonton, Apache
Junction, Nogales, Aspen Park, Guadalajara (MX), Monterrey (MX),
Mexico City, Austin, Puero Escondido (MX), De Ridder, Mérida (MX),
San Salvador, Playa del Carmen (MX), Peterborough (CA), Tuskegee,
San Jose (CR), Highlands (NC), much of western Jamaica, parts of
the Dominican Republic, much of Puerto Rico, Iqualuit, Leticia
(BR), Rincón de Los Sauces, Sao Gabriel da Caochoeira, Tefé (BR),
Manaus (BR), Sao Paulo BR), Rio de Janeiro. It's been like this
for a couple of months now, so I guess it's not a problem with the
Dishy supply chain.<br>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix"><br>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">Read: Not much growth potential at
present in and around population centres where Starlink used to be
available and where there isn't good existing ground
infrastructure.</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix"><br>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">There used to be a lot of availability
"flickering" in areas where there was more demand than beam
capacity - this has gone solidly to "available" now where it's not
"sold out". So we can assume that the market there is saturated
now mostly.</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix"><br>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">There remain those countries where
Starlink isn't officially available yet. Some of these get roaming
service, and I'm aware of at least one of these where spectral
capacity is uncomfortably near (BTW: USAID was going to pay for a
fibre cable there so China wouldn't, but I guess Elon doesn't want
USAID to pay for the cable so China can own it. While they're
waiting for it, Starlink gets seen there as being unable to meet
demand. It makes no sense to me. Incidentally, the country has one
of the largest sovereign waters in the world and China is just
waiting for the opportunity to get a naval base there I guess - on
the far side of Guam. Bye America!).</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix"><br>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">Other countries where you can't get
Starlink yet might contribute another few million users - India in
particular. But with Starlink not being able to support
particularly high user densities anywhere because of the spectral
constraints, we're unlikely to see billions of customers there
either. <br>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix"><br>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 6/02/2025 4:53 am, the keyboard of
geoff goodfellow via Starlink wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite" cite="mid:CAEf-zrhT422A3U_7J_TdgSRzKo+a4kncmfw=Bn9TyH6z+6g9Pg@mail.gmail.com">
<div dir="ltr">
<div><font face="verdana, sans-serif">"He wants to take food off
the table of people—hard-working people."<br>
</font>
<div class="gmail_default" style=""><font face="verdana, sans-serif">EXCERPT:</font></div>
</div>
<blockquote style="margin:0 0 0 40px;border:none;padding:0px">
<div>
<div class="gmail_default" style=""><font face="verdana, sans-serif">Two new independent estimates
of revenue from SpaceX's Starlink Internet service
suggest it is rapidly growing, having nearly tripled in
just two years.<br>
<br>
An updated projection from the analysts at Quilty Space
estimates that the service produced $7.8 billion in
revenue in 2024, with about 60 percent of that coming
from consumers who subscribe to the service. Similarly,
the media publication Payload estimated that Starlink
generated $8.2 billion in revenue last year.<br>
<br>
These estimates indicate that Starlink produced a few
hundred million dollars in free cash flow for SpaceX in
2024. However, with revenues expected to leap in 2025 to
above $12 billion, Quilty Space estimates that free cash
flow will grow to about $2 billion. SpaceX is privately
held, so its financial numbers are not public.<br>
<br>
<b>Growing subscribers</b></font></div>
<div class="gmail_default" style=""><font face="verdana, sans-serif"><b><br>
</b>By launching thousands of satellites and developing
an Internet service based in low-Earth orbit—where the
proximity of satellites to the ground provides
significantly faster and lower latency service than
satellites in geostationary space—SpaceX has already
exceeded space-based communication networks developed
earlier.<br>
<br>
At the end of last year, Starlink had 4.6 million
subscribers. Quilty's director of research Caleb Henry
noted that the previous incumbent players, Hughes and
ViaSat, had a combined 2.2 million subscribers at their
peak about half a decade ago, largely in North America,
with some in South America and a smattering in Europe.
Starlink is expected to add another 3 million
subscribers this year alone.<br>
<br>
SpaceX has other significant lines of business,
including government customers, particularly the US
Department of Defense, as well as maritime (75,000
vessels equipped with Starlink as well as 300 cruise
ships) and aviation segments.<br>
<br>
"The key takeaway I want everybody to walk away with is,
if SpaceX was building the Starlink system to pay for a
Mars colony, we've got evidence that the company will
generate the type of free cash flows from the business
that could pay for said endeavor," said Chris Quilty,
co-chief executive and president of Quilty Space...<br>
</font></div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<font face="verdana, sans-serif"><span class="gmail_default" style="">[...]</span></font>
<div><font face="verdana, sans-serif"><a href="https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/02/starlink-profit-growing-rapidly-as-it-faces-a-moment-of-promise-and-peril/" moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/02/starlink-profit-growing-rapidly-as-it-faces-a-moment-of-promise-and-peril/</a><br>
</font>
<div><font face="verdana, sans-serif"><br>
</font></div>
<div><font face="verdana, sans-serif"><br>
</font></div>
<font face="verdana, sans-serif"><span class="gmail_signature_prefix">-- </span><br>
</font>
<div dir="ltr" class="gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature">
<div dir="ltr"><font color="#888888"><font color="#888888" face="verdana, sans-serif"><a href="mailto:Geoff.Goodfellow@iconia.com" target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext">Geoff.Goodfellow@iconia.com</a></font></font><font color="#888888"><font face="verdana, sans-serif"><br>
</font>
<div dir="ltr">
<div style="display:inline"><font face="verdana, sans-serif">living as The Truth is
True<br>
</font></div>
</div>
<div>
<div style="font-family:verdana,sans-serif;display:inline"><br>
</div>
</div>
</font></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<br>
<fieldset class="moz-mime-attachment-header"></fieldset>
<pre wrap="" class="moz-quote-pre">_______________________________________________
Starlink mailing list
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net">Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net</a>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink">https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink</a>
</pre>
</blockquote>
<pre class="moz-signature" cols="72">--
****************************************************************
Dr. Ulrich Speidel
School of Computer Science
Room 303S.594 (City Campus)
The University of Auckland
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz">u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz</a>
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/">http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/</a>
****************************************************************
</pre>
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