[Starlink] Fwd: Here is the first edition of the report: Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?

[Starlink] Fwd: Here is the first edition of the report: Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?

[Hesham ElBakoury]

[-- Attachment #1.1: Type: text/plain, Size: 13977 bytes --]

---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: John Strand <js@strandconsult.dk>
Date: Wed, Jan 29, 2025, 4:23 AM
Subject: Here is the first edition of the report: Will LEO Satellite
Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?
To: <info@strandconsult.dk>


Dear Colleague,



Here is the first edition of the report: *“Will LEO Satellite
Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?”*
The report is a part of a signature series in Strand Consult´s Global
Project for Business Models for Broadband Cost Recovery
<https://strandconsult.dk/category/fair-cost-recovery/>.



This new report offers a comprehensive analysis of the role of Low-Earth
Orbit (LEO) satellites in the telecommunications industry. It examines the
advancements in satellite technology, the challenges in achieving service
parity with terrestrial networks, and the implications for global
connectivity. It explores the technical, economic, and regulatory factors
shaping the deployment of Direct-to-Cell satellite services and evaluates
whether these networks can complement or replace traditional cellular
infrastructure.



This report aims to illuminate the forces driving developments in LEO
satellite networks, the challenges they face, and how these technologies
will likely shape the telecommunications industry's future. It aims to
provide inspiration and insights that can be used to frame discussions
about the trends and transformations affecting connectivity on a global
scale.



When reading recent media and comments on various media postings, one can
quickly get the impression that satellites will replace traditional mobile
networks. This narrative often simplifies a complex issue, creating the
perception that satellite technology is a universal solution to global
connectivity challenges. However, a more pragmatic view reveals that
satellite networks like those operated by Starlink offer revolutionary
opportunities but are unlikely to make terrestrial mobile networks
obsolete. Instead, these technologies will coexist, each serving distinct
roles in the communication ecosystem.



There are many mobile telecom operators which fear that low earth orbit
(LEO) satellite networks like Starlink and others could impact their
business in a negative way like over the top (OTT) providers. Indeed, there
is a concern about traffic and revenue moving away from mobile networks to
providers which do not have the same regulatory obligations or cost
structure. For example, in some countries, some LEO satellite providers do
not pay for the use of radio spectrum. These are important issues to
examine in their short, medium and long term impacts.



Strand Consult’s global project for Broadband Cost Recovery and Business
Models <https://strandconsult.dk/category/fair-cost-recovery/> examines the
challenges for mobile telecom operators to build and run networks and the
set of solutions to improve return on investment.  A key region impacted by
LEO satellites is the Caribbean. Strand Consult’s report *“Gigabit
Caribbean: Closing the Investment Gap in Fixed and Mobile Networks”
<https://strandconsult.dk/gigabit-caribbean-closing-the-investment-gap-in-fixed-and-mobile-networks/>
*describes the inherent challenge to deliver return on investment in remote
areas with limited population and in the face of growing traffic from
outside providers which contribute zero financially to the local economy.
LEO satellites may be a double-edged sword in that they may provide
connectivity in an emergency, but they do not conform to local regulatory
requirements, nor do they participate locally financially.  The issue is
also relevant for rural broadband providers in the USA which Strand Consult
documented in its report “Broadband Cost Recovery: A Study of Business
Models for 50 Broadband Providers In 24 US States.”
<https://strandconsult.dk/broadband-cost-recovery-a-study-of-50-broadband-providers-in-24-us-states-new-report-from-strand-consult/>



*The Satellite Race to Reach the Phone.*



Among the various players in the Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite market,
Starlink <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-24-1193A1.pdf>, led by
Elon Musk’s SpaceX, has emerged as the frontrunner. With a network of
almost 7,000 satellites operating, 300+ (2nd generation or Gen2) satellites
have Direct-to-Cell capabilities
<https://www.theverge.com/2024/11/27/24307394/starlink-spacex-tmobile-direct-to-cell-satellite-fcc-approval?>.
SpaceX's spectrum regulatory approach outside the U.S. has been criticized
for not always adhering to local licensing frameworks (e.g., cases in
India, France, and South Africa). Its reliance on spectrum that local
regulators have not officially granted can create tensions with governments
and local telecom providers. Starlink operates a global satellite network
with thousands of satellites covering areas without always having lawful
access to the spectrum on which it provides services.



This is an even more significant challenge regarding the regular cellular
spectrum used for traditional mobile cellular services licensed and used by
local telecommunication companies. Thus, it requires, at least, the
satellite operator to collaborate locally with telco operators who have the
usage rights of the cellular spectrum of interest. Despite these
challenges, Starlink’s aggressive strategy and innovative technology have
placed it light years ahead of competitors like Amazon’s Kuiper
<https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-23-114A1.pdf> and Eutelsat’s
OneWeb <https://oneweb.net/>. As of January 2025, Amazon's Project Kuiper
has not yet launched
<https://techxplore.com/news/2024-07-amazon-kuiper-delays-satellite-timeline.html>
any operational satellites, including those with Direct-to-Cell (D2C)
capabilities. The project is still in development, with plans to deploy a
constellation of 3,236 LEO satellites to provide global broadband coverage.



One of the most remarkable aspects of Starlink’s success is its ability to
build a functional global network without initial access to the necessary
spectrum. This bold approach has drawn comparisons to Jeff Bezos’ Kuiper
project, with Strand Consult humorously observing that while Bezos is still
setting up a “burger bar,” Musk is already running an “interstellar
McDonald’s.

In the report you can read about the companies that are advancing D2C
connectivity through LEO satellite constellations, aiming to connect
standard mobile devices directly to satellites.



Among them, AST SpaceMobile
<https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-24-756A1.pdf> has launched five
operational satellites, detailed in FCC filings, to deliver 4G and 5G
services globally, with plans to expand its network with up to 243
satellites. AST SpaceMobile's advanced phased-array antenna, BlueWalker 3
<https://ast-science.com/spacemobile-network/bluewalker-3/>, is one of the
most powerful in the industry required to deliver good quality services to
unmodified cellular consumer devices. Similarly, Lynk Global
<https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-22-969A1.pdf> has deployed
satellites to provide coverage in remote areas, emphasizing partnerships
with telecom operators and regulatory approvals.



Geespace <https://www.geespace.com/>, part of Geely Technology Group, has
launched 30 satellites in China and plans to expand to 72 by 2025,
targeting global broadband and D2C capabilities. The Qianfan ("Thousand
Sails") constellation
<https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/china-launches-first-satellites-constellation-rival-starlink-newspaper-reports-2024-08-05/>,
in intent and capabilities closest to SpaceX, is another Chinese initiative
that has deployed 54 satellites and aims for over 15,000 by 2030,
positioning itself as a major player in satellite-based communications. US
and Chinese initiatives drive significant advancements in D2C technology,
integrating satellite connectivity into everyday communications and
addressing global coverage challenges.



*Some Takeaways.*



Direct-to-Cell LEO satellite networks face considerable technology hurdles
in providing services comparable to terrestrial cellular networks.



   - *They must overcome substantial free-space path loss* and ensure
   uplink connectivity from low-power mobile devices with omnidirectional
   antennas.
   - Cellular devices transmit at low power (typically 23–30 dBm), making
   it *very challenging for uplink cellular signals* to reach satellites in
   LEO at 300–1,200 km altitudes, particularly if the cellular device is
   indoor.
   - Uplink signals from multiple devices within a satellite beam area can
   overlap, creating *interference that challenges the satellite’s ability
   to separate and process individual uplink signals*.
   - *Must address bandwidth limitations* and efficiently reuse spectrum
   while minimizing interference with terrestrial and other satellite networks.
   - Scaling globally may *require satellites to carry varied payload
   configurations to accommodate regional spectrum requirements*,
   increasing technical complexity and deployment expenses.
   - Operating on terrestrial frequencies *necessitates dynamic spectrum
   sharing and interference mitigation strategies*, especially in densely
   populated areas, limiting coverage efficiency and capacity.
   -

On the regulatory front, integrating D2C satellite services into existing
mobile ecosystems is complex. Spectrum licensing is a key issue, as
satellite operators must either share frequencies already allocated to
terrestrial mobile operators or secure dedicated satellite spectrum.



   - *Securing access to shared or dedicated spectrum*, particularly
   negotiating with terrestrial operators to use licensed frequencies.
   - *Avoiding interference* between satellite and terrestrial networks
   requires detailed agreements and advanced spectrum management techniques.
   - *Navigating fragmented regulatory frameworks* in Europe, where
   national licensing requirements vary significantly.
   - The high administrative and operational *burden of scaling
globally* diminishes
   economic benefits, particularly in regions where terrestrial networks
   already dominate.



The idea of D2C-capable satellite networks making terrestrial cellular
networks obsolete is ambitious but fraught with practical limitations.
While LEO satellites offer unparalleled reach in remote and underserved
areas, they struggle to match terrestrial networks’ capacity, reliability,
and low latency in urban and suburban environments. The high density of
base stations in terrestrial networks enables them to handle far greater
traffic volumes, especially for data-intensive applications.



The regulatory and operational constraints surrounding using terrestrial
mobile frequencies for D2C services severely limit scalability. This
fragmentation makes it difficult to achieve global coverage seamlessly and
increases operational and economic inefficiencies. While D2C services hold
promise for addressing connectivity gaps in remote areas, their ability to
scale as a comprehensive alternative to terrestrial networks is hampered by
these challenges. Unless global regulatory harmonization or innovative
technical solutions emerge, D2C networks will likely remain a
complementary, sub-scale solution rather than a standalone replacement for
terrestrial mobile networks.



The report *"Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make
Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?"*  is valuable for mobile operators
and their shareholders, policymakers, security and defense analysts,
network engineers, and other professionals.



Let me know your feedback and questions.



Best regards,





John Strand





Strand Consult is an independent, privately owned consultancy company. Our
main focus is in the wireless sector, what it looks like, how it is
developing and how it influences a number of other sectors. Through our
research, reports, workshops and consulting, we help create and expand our
customers’ revenue streams by maximising the use of all the new
possibilities and opportunities that arise with new technologies and
business strategies. About Strand Consult <http://www.strandreports.com>



Our primary customers are national and international mobile operators and
our list of customers currently includes over 170 mobile operators spread
across Europe, South America, North America, Australia, Asia and Africa.
Based on our research and work with mobile operators we additionally help
many customers in the technology industry and the media sector who want to
learn more about how the telecom industry is influencing their industry.



We are regarded as one of the leading authorities on mobile technologies,
business and revenue models and distribution strategies. Our reports are
both strategic and cross-disciplinary in their outlook. They do not focus
on a single area, but always examine subjects from five different angles;
operators, technology providers, distribution, content providers and which
existing or new business strategies will have the greatest probability of
being successful. Most of our customers have saved a great deal of money on
consultancy services by purchasing and using our strategic reports.



Strand Consult is the supplier of some of the most sought after lecturers
in the mobile world. We frequently speak at a great number of the
International conferences about the mobile and media world and how they
will develop in the future. You can read more about which conferences we
will be speaking at on our website Conferences
<http://www.strandconsult.dk/sw484.asp>

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Re: [Starlink] Fwd: Here is the first edition of the report: Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?

[Vint Cerf]

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thanks for sharing this analysis with which I resonate. I doubt that the
LEO constellations will scale to the same extent that ground-based cellular
systems have. However, they will take some traffic. Prices might also be an
issue. Interestingly, video conferencing over the Internet is a substitute
for traditional telephony and comes naturally thanks to the digital nature
of the transmission.

v


On Wed, Jan 29, 2025 at 7:30 AM Hesham ElBakoury via Starlink <
starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:

>
> ---------- Forwarded message ---------
> From: John Strand <js@strandconsult.dk>
> Date: Wed, Jan 29, 2025, 4:23 AM
> Subject: Here is the first edition of the report: Will LEO Satellite
> Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?
> To: <info@strandconsult.dk>
>
>
> Dear Colleague,
>
>
>
> Here is the first edition of the report: *“Will LEO Satellite
> Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?”*
> The report is a part of a signature series in Strand Consult´s Global
> Project for Business Models for Broadband Cost Recovery
> <https://strandconsult.dk/category/fair-cost-recovery/>.
>
>
>
> This new report offers a comprehensive analysis of the role of Low-Earth
> Orbit (LEO) satellites in the telecommunications industry. It examines the
> advancements in satellite technology, the challenges in achieving service
> parity with terrestrial networks, and the implications for global
> connectivity. It explores the technical, economic, and regulatory factors
> shaping the deployment of Direct-to-Cell satellite services and evaluates
> whether these networks can complement or replace traditional cellular
> infrastructure.
>
>
>
> This report aims to illuminate the forces driving developments in LEO
> satellite networks, the challenges they face, and how these technologies
> will likely shape the telecommunications industry's future. It aims to
> provide inspiration and insights that can be used to frame discussions
> about the trends and transformations affecting connectivity on a global
> scale.
>
>
>
> When reading recent media and comments on various media postings, one can
> quickly get the impression that satellites will replace traditional mobile
> networks. This narrative often simplifies a complex issue, creating the
> perception that satellite technology is a universal solution to global
> connectivity challenges. However, a more pragmatic view reveals that
> satellite networks like those operated by Starlink offer revolutionary
> opportunities but are unlikely to make terrestrial mobile networks
> obsolete. Instead, these technologies will coexist, each serving distinct
> roles in the communication ecosystem.
>
>
>
> There are many mobile telecom operators which fear that low earth orbit
> (LEO) satellite networks like Starlink and others could impact their
> business in a negative way like over the top (OTT) providers. Indeed, there
> is a concern about traffic and revenue moving away from mobile networks to
> providers which do not have the same regulatory obligations or cost
> structure. For example, in some countries, some LEO satellite providers do
> not pay for the use of radio spectrum. These are important issues to
> examine in their short, medium and long term impacts.
>
>
>
> Strand Consult’s global project for Broadband Cost Recovery and Business
> Models <https://strandconsult.dk/category/fair-cost-recovery/> examines
> the challenges for mobile telecom operators to build and run networks and
> the set of solutions to improve return on investment.  A key region
> impacted by LEO satellites is the Caribbean. Strand Consult’s report *“Gigabit
> Caribbean: Closing the Investment Gap in Fixed and Mobile Networks”
> <https://strandconsult.dk/gigabit-caribbean-closing-the-investment-gap-in-fixed-and-mobile-networks/>
> *describes the inherent challenge to deliver return on investment in
> remote areas with limited population and in the face of growing traffic
> from outside providers which contribute zero financially to the local
> economy. LEO satellites may be a double-edged sword in that they may
> provide connectivity in an emergency, but they do not conform to local
> regulatory requirements, nor do they participate locally financially.  The
> issue is also relevant for rural broadband providers in the USA which
> Strand Consult documented in its report “Broadband Cost Recovery: A Study
> of Business Models for 50 Broadband Providers In 24 US States.”
> <https://strandconsult.dk/broadband-cost-recovery-a-study-of-50-broadband-providers-in-24-us-states-new-report-from-strand-consult/>
>
>
>
> *The Satellite Race to Reach the Phone.*
>
>
>
> Among the various players in the Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite market,
> Starlink <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-24-1193A1.pdf>, led
> by Elon Musk’s SpaceX, has emerged as the frontrunner. With a network of
> almost 7,000 satellites operating, 300+ (2nd generation or Gen2)
> satellites have Direct-to-Cell capabilities
> <https://www.theverge.com/2024/11/27/24307394/starlink-spacex-tmobile-direct-to-cell-satellite-fcc-approval?>.
> SpaceX's spectrum regulatory approach outside the U.S. has been criticized
> for not always adhering to local licensing frameworks (e.g., cases in
> India, France, and South Africa). Its reliance on spectrum that local
> regulators have not officially granted can create tensions with governments
> and local telecom providers. Starlink operates a global satellite network
> with thousands of satellites covering areas without always having lawful
> access to the spectrum on which it provides services.
>
>
>
> This is an even more significant challenge regarding the regular cellular
> spectrum used for traditional mobile cellular services licensed and used by
> local telecommunication companies. Thus, it requires, at least, the
> satellite operator to collaborate locally with telco operators who have the
> usage rights of the cellular spectrum of interest. Despite these
> challenges, Starlink’s aggressive strategy and innovative technology have
> placed it light years ahead of competitors like Amazon’s Kuiper
> <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-23-114A1.pdf> and Eutelsat’s
> OneWeb <https://oneweb.net/>. As of January 2025, Amazon's Project Kuiper
> has not yet launched
> <https://techxplore.com/news/2024-07-amazon-kuiper-delays-satellite-timeline.html>
> any operational satellites, including those with Direct-to-Cell (D2C)
> capabilities. The project is still in development, with plans to deploy a
> constellation of 3,236 LEO satellites to provide global broadband coverage.
>
>
>
> One of the most remarkable aspects of Starlink’s success is its ability to
> build a functional global network without initial access to the necessary
> spectrum. This bold approach has drawn comparisons to Jeff Bezos’ Kuiper
> project, with Strand Consult humorously observing that while Bezos is still
> setting up a “burger bar,” Musk is already running an “interstellar
> McDonald’s.
>
> In the report you can read about the companies that are advancing D2C
> connectivity through LEO satellite constellations, aiming to connect
> standard mobile devices directly to satellites.
>
>
>
> Among them, AST SpaceMobile
> <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-24-756A1.pdf> has launched
> five operational satellites, detailed in FCC filings, to deliver 4G and 5G
> services globally, with plans to expand its network with up to 243
> satellites. AST SpaceMobile's advanced phased-array antenna, BlueWalker 3
> <https://ast-science.com/spacemobile-network/bluewalker-3/>, is one of
> the most powerful in the industry required to deliver good quality services
> to unmodified cellular consumer devices. Similarly, Lynk Global
> <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-22-969A1.pdf> has deployed
> satellites to provide coverage in remote areas, emphasizing partnerships
> with telecom operators and regulatory approvals.
>
>
>
> Geespace <https://www.geespace.com/>, part of Geely Technology Group, has
> launched 30 satellites in China and plans to expand to 72 by 2025,
> targeting global broadband and D2C capabilities. The Qianfan ("Thousand
> Sails") constellation
> <https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/china-launches-first-satellites-constellation-rival-starlink-newspaper-reports-2024-08-05/>,
> in intent and capabilities closest to SpaceX, is another Chinese initiative
> that has deployed 54 satellites and aims for over 15,000 by 2030,
> positioning itself as a major player in satellite-based communications. US
> and Chinese initiatives drive significant advancements in D2C technology,
> integrating satellite connectivity into everyday communications and
> addressing global coverage challenges.
>
>
>
> *Some Takeaways.*
>
>
>
> Direct-to-Cell LEO satellite networks face considerable technology hurdles
> in providing services comparable to terrestrial cellular networks.
>
>
>
>    - *They must overcome substantial free-space path loss* and ensure
>    uplink connectivity from low-power mobile devices with omnidirectional
>    antennas.
>    - Cellular devices transmit at low power (typically 23–30 dBm), making
>    it *very challenging for uplink cellular signals* to reach satellites
>    in LEO at 300–1,200 km altitudes, particularly if the cellular device is
>    indoor.
>    - Uplink signals from multiple devices within a satellite beam area
>    can overlap, creating *interference that challenges the satellite’s
>    ability to separate and process individual uplink signals*.
>    - *Must address bandwidth limitations* and efficiently reuse spectrum
>    while minimizing interference with terrestrial and other satellite networks.
>    - Scaling globally may *require satellites to carry varied payload
>    configurations to accommodate regional spectrum requirements*,
>    increasing technical complexity and deployment expenses.
>    - Operating on terrestrial frequencies *necessitates dynamic spectrum
>    sharing and interference mitigation strategies*, especially in densely
>    populated areas, limiting coverage efficiency and capacity.
>    -
>
> On the regulatory front, integrating D2C satellite services into existing
> mobile ecosystems is complex. Spectrum licensing is a key issue, as
> satellite operators must either share frequencies already allocated to
> terrestrial mobile operators or secure dedicated satellite spectrum.
>
>
>
>    - *Securing access to shared or dedicated spectrum*, particularly
>    negotiating with terrestrial operators to use licensed frequencies.
>    - *Avoiding interference* between satellite and terrestrial networks
>    requires detailed agreements and advanced spectrum management techniques.
>    - *Navigating fragmented regulatory frameworks* in Europe, where
>    national licensing requirements vary significantly.
>    - The high administrative and operational *burden of scaling globally* diminishes
>    economic benefits, particularly in regions where terrestrial networks
>    already dominate.
>
>
>
> The idea of D2C-capable satellite networks making terrestrial cellular
> networks obsolete is ambitious but fraught with practical limitations.
> While LEO satellites offer unparalleled reach in remote and underserved
> areas, they struggle to match terrestrial networks’ capacity, reliability,
> and low latency in urban and suburban environments. The high density of
> base stations in terrestrial networks enables them to handle far greater
> traffic volumes, especially for data-intensive applications.
>
>
>
> The regulatory and operational constraints surrounding using terrestrial
> mobile frequencies for D2C services severely limit scalability. This
> fragmentation makes it difficult to achieve global coverage seamlessly and
> increases operational and economic inefficiencies. While D2C services hold
> promise for addressing connectivity gaps in remote areas, their ability to
> scale as a comprehensive alternative to terrestrial networks is hampered by
> these challenges. Unless global regulatory harmonization or innovative
> technical solutions emerge, D2C networks will likely remain a
> complementary, sub-scale solution rather than a standalone replacement for
> terrestrial mobile networks.
>
>
>
> The report *"Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make
> Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?"*  is valuable for mobile operators
> and their shareholders, policymakers, security and defense analysts,
> network engineers, and other professionals.
>
>
>
> Let me know your feedback and questions.
>
>
>
> Best regards,
>
>
>
>
>
> John Strand
>
>
>
>
>
> Strand Consult is an independent, privately owned consultancy company. Our
> main focus is in the wireless sector, what it looks like, how it is
> developing and how it influences a number of other sectors. Through our
> research, reports, workshops and consulting, we help create and expand our
> customers’ revenue streams by maximising the use of all the new
> possibilities and opportunities that arise with new technologies and
> business strategies. About Strand Consult <http://www.strandreports.com>
>
>
>
> Our primary customers are national and international mobile operators and
> our list of customers currently includes over 170 mobile operators spread
> across Europe, South America, North America, Australia, Asia and Africa.
> Based on our research and work with mobile operators we additionally help
> many customers in the technology industry and the media sector who want to
> learn more about how the telecom industry is influencing their industry.
>
>
>
> We are regarded as one of the leading authorities on mobile technologies,
> business and revenue models and distribution strategies. Our reports are
> both strategic and cross-disciplinary in their outlook. They do not focus
> on a single area, but always examine subjects from five different angles;
> operators, technology providers, distribution, content providers and which
> existing or new business strategies will have the greatest probability of
> being successful. Most of our customers have saved a great deal of money on
> consultancy services by purchasing and using our strategic reports.
>
>
>
> Strand Consult is the supplier of some of the most sought after lecturers
> in the mobile world. We frequently speak at a great number of the
> International conferences about the mobile and media world and how they
> will develop in the future. You can read more about which conferences we
> will be speaking at on our website Conferences
> <http://www.strandconsult.dk/sw484.asp>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> Starlink mailing list
> Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink
>


-- 
Please send any postal/overnight deliveries to:
Vint Cerf
Google, LLC
1900 Reston Metro Plaza, 16th Floor
Reston, VA 20190
+1 (571) 213 1346


until further notice

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Re: [Starlink] Fwd: Here is the first edition of the report: Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?

[David Lang]

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as I wrote back in 2013 
https://www.usenix.org/publications/login/april-2013-volume-38-number-2/wireless-means-radio
when you have a lot of people to support, airtime is your most limiting factor, 
the smaller the area you are covering from one station, the more users you can 
support

So just like cell phone companies deploy microcells in dense cities, the regular 
cell service are microcells compared to anything you can do from orbit.

But it may be tht traditional mobile networks won't have to setup stations every 
few miles along highways and can just concentrate on the denser areas (which are 
also cheaper to serve)

now to go read the pdf ;-)

David Lang

On Wed, 29 Jan 2025, Hesham ElBakoury via Starlink wrote:

> Date: Wed, 29 Jan 2025 04:29:45 -0800
> From: Hesham ElBakoury via Starlink <starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net>
> Reply-To: Hesham ElBakoury <helbakoury@gmail.com>
> To: Dave Taht via Starlink <starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net>,
>     5grm-satellite@ieee.org
> Subject: [Starlink] Fwd: Here is the first edition of the report: Will LEO
>     Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks
>     Obsolete?
> 
> ---------- Forwarded message ---------
> From: John Strand <js@strandconsult.dk>
> Date: Wed, Jan 29, 2025, 4:23 AM
> Subject: Here is the first edition of the report: Will LEO Satellite
> Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?
> To: <info@strandconsult.dk>
>
>
> Dear Colleague,
>
>
>
> Here is the first edition of the report: *“Will LEO Satellite
> Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?”*
> The report is a part of a signature series in Strand Consult´s Global
> Project for Business Models for Broadband Cost Recovery
> <https://strandconsult.dk/category/fair-cost-recovery/>.
>
>
>
> This new report offers a comprehensive analysis of the role of Low-Earth
> Orbit (LEO) satellites in the telecommunications industry. It examines the
> advancements in satellite technology, the challenges in achieving service
> parity with terrestrial networks, and the implications for global
> connectivity. It explores the technical, economic, and regulatory factors
> shaping the deployment of Direct-to-Cell satellite services and evaluates
> whether these networks can complement or replace traditional cellular
> infrastructure.
>
>
>
> This report aims to illuminate the forces driving developments in LEO
> satellite networks, the challenges they face, and how these technologies
> will likely shape the telecommunications industry's future. It aims to
> provide inspiration and insights that can be used to frame discussions
> about the trends and transformations affecting connectivity on a global
> scale.
>
>
>
> When reading recent media and comments on various media postings, one can
> quickly get the impression that satellites will replace traditional mobile
> networks. This narrative often simplifies a complex issue, creating the
> perception that satellite technology is a universal solution to global
> connectivity challenges. However, a more pragmatic view reveals that
> satellite networks like those operated by Starlink offer revolutionary
> opportunities but are unlikely to make terrestrial mobile networks
> obsolete. Instead, these technologies will coexist, each serving distinct
> roles in the communication ecosystem.
>
>
>
> There are many mobile telecom operators which fear that low earth orbit
> (LEO) satellite networks like Starlink and others could impact their
> business in a negative way like over the top (OTT) providers. Indeed, there
> is a concern about traffic and revenue moving away from mobile networks to
> providers which do not have the same regulatory obligations or cost
> structure. For example, in some countries, some LEO satellite providers do
> not pay for the use of radio spectrum. These are important issues to
> examine in their short, medium and long term impacts.
>
>
>
> Strand Consult’s global project for Broadband Cost Recovery and Business
> Models <https://strandconsult.dk/category/fair-cost-recovery/> examines the
> challenges for mobile telecom operators to build and run networks and the
> set of solutions to improve return on investment.  A key region impacted by
> LEO satellites is the Caribbean. Strand Consult’s report *“Gigabit
> Caribbean: Closing the Investment Gap in Fixed and Mobile Networks”
> <https://strandconsult.dk/gigabit-caribbean-closing-the-investment-gap-in-fixed-and-mobile-networks/>
> *describes the inherent challenge to deliver return on investment in remote
> areas with limited population and in the face of growing traffic from
> outside providers which contribute zero financially to the local economy.
> LEO satellites may be a double-edged sword in that they may provide
> connectivity in an emergency, but they do not conform to local regulatory
> requirements, nor do they participate locally financially.  The issue is
> also relevant for rural broadband providers in the USA which Strand Consult
> documented in its report “Broadband Cost Recovery: A Study of Business
> Models for 50 Broadband Providers In 24 US States.”
> <https://strandconsult.dk/broadband-cost-recovery-a-study-of-50-broadband-providers-in-24-us-states-new-report-from-strand-consult/>
>
>
>
> *The Satellite Race to Reach the Phone.*
>
>
>
> Among the various players in the Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite market,
> Starlink <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-24-1193A1.pdf>, led by
> Elon Musk’s SpaceX, has emerged as the frontrunner. With a network of
> almost 7,000 satellites operating, 300+ (2nd generation or Gen2) satellites
> have Direct-to-Cell capabilities
> <https://www.theverge.com/2024/11/27/24307394/starlink-spacex-tmobile-direct-to-cell-satellite-fcc-approval?>.
> SpaceX's spectrum regulatory approach outside the U.S. has been criticized
> for not always adhering to local licensing frameworks (e.g., cases in
> India, France, and South Africa). Its reliance on spectrum that local
> regulators have not officially granted can create tensions with governments
> and local telecom providers. Starlink operates a global satellite network
> with thousands of satellites covering areas without always having lawful
> access to the spectrum on which it provides services.
>
>
>
> This is an even more significant challenge regarding the regular cellular
> spectrum used for traditional mobile cellular services licensed and used by
> local telecommunication companies. Thus, it requires, at least, the
> satellite operator to collaborate locally with telco operators who have the
> usage rights of the cellular spectrum of interest. Despite these
> challenges, Starlink’s aggressive strategy and innovative technology have
> placed it light years ahead of competitors like Amazon’s Kuiper
> <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-23-114A1.pdf> and Eutelsat’s
> OneWeb <https://oneweb.net/>. As of January 2025, Amazon's Project Kuiper
> has not yet launched
> <https://techxplore.com/news/2024-07-amazon-kuiper-delays-satellite-timeline.html>
> any operational satellites, including those with Direct-to-Cell (D2C)
> capabilities. The project is still in development, with plans to deploy a
> constellation of 3,236 LEO satellites to provide global broadband coverage.
>
>
>
> One of the most remarkable aspects of Starlink’s success is its ability to
> build a functional global network without initial access to the necessary
> spectrum. This bold approach has drawn comparisons to Jeff Bezos’ Kuiper
> project, with Strand Consult humorously observing that while Bezos is still
> setting up a “burger bar,” Musk is already running an “interstellar
> McDonald’s.
>
> In the report you can read about the companies that are advancing D2C
> connectivity through LEO satellite constellations, aiming to connect
> standard mobile devices directly to satellites.
>
>
>
> Among them, AST SpaceMobile
> <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-24-756A1.pdf> has launched five
> operational satellites, detailed in FCC filings, to deliver 4G and 5G
> services globally, with plans to expand its network with up to 243
> satellites. AST SpaceMobile's advanced phased-array antenna, BlueWalker 3
> <https://ast-science.com/spacemobile-network/bluewalker-3/>, is one of the
> most powerful in the industry required to deliver good quality services to
> unmodified cellular consumer devices. Similarly, Lynk Global
> <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-22-969A1.pdf> has deployed
> satellites to provide coverage in remote areas, emphasizing partnerships
> with telecom operators and regulatory approvals.
>
>
>
> Geespace <https://www.geespace.com/>, part of Geely Technology Group, has
> launched 30 satellites in China and plans to expand to 72 by 2025,
> targeting global broadband and D2C capabilities. The Qianfan ("Thousand
> Sails") constellation
> <https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/china-launches-first-satellites-constellation-rival-starlink-newspaper-reports-2024-08-05/>,
> in intent and capabilities closest to SpaceX, is another Chinese initiative
> that has deployed 54 satellites and aims for over 15,000 by 2030,
> positioning itself as a major player in satellite-based communications. US
> and Chinese initiatives drive significant advancements in D2C technology,
> integrating satellite connectivity into everyday communications and
> addressing global coverage challenges.
>
>
>
> *Some Takeaways.*
>
>
>
> Direct-to-Cell LEO satellite networks face considerable technology hurdles
> in providing services comparable to terrestrial cellular networks.
>
>
>
>   - *They must overcome substantial free-space path loss* and ensure
>   uplink connectivity from low-power mobile devices with omnidirectional
>   antennas.
>   - Cellular devices transmit at low power (typically 23–30 dBm), making
>   it *very challenging for uplink cellular signals* to reach satellites in
>   LEO at 300–1,200 km altitudes, particularly if the cellular device is
>   indoor.
>   - Uplink signals from multiple devices within a satellite beam area can
>   overlap, creating *interference that challenges the satellite’s ability
>   to separate and process individual uplink signals*.
>   - *Must address bandwidth limitations* and efficiently reuse spectrum
>   while minimizing interference with terrestrial and other satellite networks.
>   - Scaling globally may *require satellites to carry varied payload
>   configurations to accommodate regional spectrum requirements*,
>   increasing technical complexity and deployment expenses.
>   - Operating on terrestrial frequencies *necessitates dynamic spectrum
>   sharing and interference mitigation strategies*, especially in densely
>   populated areas, limiting coverage efficiency and capacity.
>   -
>
> On the regulatory front, integrating D2C satellite services into existing
> mobile ecosystems is complex. Spectrum licensing is a key issue, as
> satellite operators must either share frequencies already allocated to
> terrestrial mobile operators or secure dedicated satellite spectrum.
>
>
>
>   - *Securing access to shared or dedicated spectrum*, particularly
>   negotiating with terrestrial operators to use licensed frequencies.
>   - *Avoiding interference* between satellite and terrestrial networks
>   requires detailed agreements and advanced spectrum management techniques.
>   - *Navigating fragmented regulatory frameworks* in Europe, where
>   national licensing requirements vary significantly.
>   - The high administrative and operational *burden of scaling
> globally* diminishes
>   economic benefits, particularly in regions where terrestrial networks
>   already dominate.
>
>
>
> The idea of D2C-capable satellite networks making terrestrial cellular
> networks obsolete is ambitious but fraught with practical limitations.
> While LEO satellites offer unparalleled reach in remote and underserved
> areas, they struggle to match terrestrial networks’ capacity, reliability,
> and low latency in urban and suburban environments. The high density of
> base stations in terrestrial networks enables them to handle far greater
> traffic volumes, especially for data-intensive applications.
>
>
>
> The regulatory and operational constraints surrounding using terrestrial
> mobile frequencies for D2C services severely limit scalability. This
> fragmentation makes it difficult to achieve global coverage seamlessly and
> increases operational and economic inefficiencies. While D2C services hold
> promise for addressing connectivity gaps in remote areas, their ability to
> scale as a comprehensive alternative to terrestrial networks is hampered by
> these challenges. Unless global regulatory harmonization or innovative
> technical solutions emerge, D2C networks will likely remain a
> complementary, sub-scale solution rather than a standalone replacement for
> terrestrial mobile networks.
>
>
>
> The report *"Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make
> Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?"*  is valuable for mobile operators
> and their shareholders, policymakers, security and defense analysts,
> network engineers, and other professionals.
>
>
>
> Let me know your feedback and questions.
>
>
>
> Best regards,
>
>
>
>
>
> John Strand
>
>
>
>
>
> Strand Consult is an independent, privately owned consultancy company. Our
> main focus is in the wireless sector, what it looks like, how it is
> developing and how it influences a number of other sectors. Through our
> research, reports, workshops and consulting, we help create and expand our
> customers’ revenue streams by maximising the use of all the new
> possibilities and opportunities that arise with new technologies and
> business strategies. About Strand Consult <http://www.strandreports.com>
>
>
>
> Our primary customers are national and international mobile operators and
> our list of customers currently includes over 170 mobile operators spread
> across Europe, South America, North America, Australia, Asia and Africa.
> Based on our research and work with mobile operators we additionally help
> many customers in the technology industry and the media sector who want to
> learn more about how the telecom industry is influencing their industry.
>
>
>
> We are regarded as one of the leading authorities on mobile technologies,
> business and revenue models and distribution strategies. Our reports are
> both strategic and cross-disciplinary in their outlook. They do not focus
> on a single area, but always examine subjects from five different angles;
> operators, technology providers, distribution, content providers and which
> existing or new business strategies will have the greatest probability of
> being successful. Most of our customers have saved a great deal of money on
> consultancy services by purchasing and using our strategic reports.
>
>
>
> Strand Consult is the supplier of some of the most sought after lecturers
> in the mobile world. We frequently speak at a great number of the
> International conferences about the mobile and media world and how they
> will develop in the future. You can read more about which conferences we
> will be speaking at on our website Conferences
> <http://www.strandconsult.dk/sw484.asp>
>

Re: [Starlink] Fwd: Here is the first edition of the report: Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?

[Ulrich Speidel]

[-- Attachment #1: Type: text/plain, Size: 19652 bytes --]

I've been asked a few times what user experience is like with the 
Starlink cellular service now available through One NZ (formerly 
Vodafone) in New Zealand.

The short answer is that I don't know (any users).

What I do know is that in November, the NZ Commerce Commission filed 
criminal charges against One NZ over their advertising of "100% mobile 
coverage":

https://comcom.govt.nz/news-and-media/media-releases/2024/comcom-takes-legal-action-over-one-nzs-100-coverage-claims-for-spacex-service

Yep they ran TV ads. The service launched to great fanfare in December. 
TXT only of course. Now the information about the satellite service is 
almost a bit difficult to find on the One NZ website.

It gets weirder, though. The only phones approved for the service at the 
moment are their top end Android models, with 8 Samsung and one OPPO 
model approved as of this morning. No iphones. Of the 8 Samsung models, 
three are from the S25 series and can only be pre-ordered. Two are from 
the S23 series, and aren't available for sale on their website. In the 
small print, it says "Phones purchased outside of New Zealand (including 
parallel imports) may not be compatible." Read: If you didn't buy your 
phone from us, we're under no obligation to make it work. I guess this 
probably means that if you bought your high end phone from a discounter 
(parallel import), then its IMEI won't be on One NZ's approved list. 
Given that the newly approved phones that aren't for sale anymore were 
several hundred dollars cheaper at the parallel import discounters, it's 
probably a good guess that there aren't all that many One NZ devices 
from that range out there.

Now just buying one of these devices from them doesn't get you the 
service though. You also need a 36 month plan from them. These come 
essentially in two sizes. One that starts at about twice the rate of the 
monthly prepay plan that keeps me chugging over here. If you want that, 
you have to pay a premium on the phone. The other is about three times 
the rate and gets you the phone cheapest (but still hundreds of bucks 
more than at the parallel importers).

But let's assume you have all that in place. Now where do you go to try 
it all out? This isn't the US. One NZ's terrestrial network covers 
almost everywhere with people or roads. Look for yourself: 
https://one.nz/network/coverage/

Those who go where it doesn't reach tend to be tourists, poor as mice, 
or farmers with land mobile radio. None of them are likely buyers of 
high end phones or can afford an expensive contract.

But even if they do get to TXT, in One NZ's own words:

> One NZ Satellite TXT offers an extra layer of protection to existing 
> safety devices. If you're planning a visit to somewhere remote, it's 
> always recommended to take a /personal locator beacon/ in case of 
> emergency.
I have one of these. Cost about the difference between an eligible phone 
and its parallel import version, and doesn't need a contract. A mate of 
mine works next door to the NZ Rescue Coordination Centre and says 
they're now rescuing people where previously they wouldn't have even 
found the bodies.

On 30/01/2025 3:05 am, David Lang via Starlink wrote:
> as I wrote back in 2013 
> https://www.usenix.org/publications/login/april-2013-volume-38-number-2/wireless-means-radio
> when you have a lot of people to support, airtime is your most 
> limiting factor, the smaller the area you are covering from one 
> station, the more users you can support
>
> So just like cell phone companies deploy microcells in dense cities, 
> the regular cell service are microcells compared to anything you can 
> do from orbit.
>
> But it may be tht traditional mobile networks won't have to setup 
> stations every few miles along highways and can just concentrate on 
> the denser areas (which are also cheaper to serve)
>
> now to go read the pdf ;-)
>
> David Lang
>
> On Wed, 29 Jan 2025, Hesham ElBakoury via Starlink wrote:
>
>> Date: Wed, 29 Jan 2025 04:29:45 -0800
>> From: Hesham ElBakoury via Starlink <starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net>
>> Reply-To: Hesham ElBakoury <helbakoury@gmail.com>
>> To: Dave Taht via Starlink <starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net>,
>> 5grm-satellite@ieee.org
>> Subject: [Starlink] Fwd: Here is the first edition of the report: 
>> Will LEO
>>     Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile 
>> Networks
>>     Obsolete?
>>
>> ---------- Forwarded message ---------
>> From: John Strand <js@strandconsult.dk>
>> Date: Wed, Jan 29, 2025, 4:23 AM
>> Subject: Here is the first edition of the report: Will LEO Satellite
>> Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?
>> To: <info@strandconsult.dk>
>>
>>
>> Dear Colleague,
>>
>>
>>
>> Here is the first edition of the report: *“Will LEO Satellite
>> Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?”*
>> The report is a part of a signature series in Strand Consult´s Global
>> Project for Business Models for Broadband Cost Recovery
>> <https://strandconsult.dk/category/fair-cost-recovery/>.
>>
>>
>>
>> This new report offers a comprehensive analysis of the role of Low-Earth
>> Orbit (LEO) satellites in the telecommunications industry. It 
>> examines the
>> advancements in satellite technology, the challenges in achieving 
>> service
>> parity with terrestrial networks, and the implications for global
>> connectivity. It explores the technical, economic, and regulatory 
>> factors
>> shaping the deployment of Direct-to-Cell satellite services and 
>> evaluates
>> whether these networks can complement or replace traditional cellular
>> infrastructure.
>>
>>
>>
>> This report aims to illuminate the forces driving developments in LEO
>> satellite networks, the challenges they face, and how these technologies
>> will likely shape the telecommunications industry's future. It aims to
>> provide inspiration and insights that can be used to frame discussions
>> about the trends and transformations affecting connectivity on a global
>> scale.
>>
>>
>>
>> When reading recent media and comments on various media postings, one 
>> can
>> quickly get the impression that satellites will replace traditional 
>> mobile
>> networks. This narrative often simplifies a complex issue, creating the
>> perception that satellite technology is a universal solution to global
>> connectivity challenges. However, a more pragmatic view reveals that
>> satellite networks like those operated by Starlink offer revolutionary
>> opportunities but are unlikely to make terrestrial mobile networks
>> obsolete. Instead, these technologies will coexist, each serving 
>> distinct
>> roles in the communication ecosystem.
>>
>>
>>
>> There are many mobile telecom operators which fear that low earth orbit
>> (LEO) satellite networks like Starlink and others could impact their
>> business in a negative way like over the top (OTT) providers. Indeed, 
>> there
>> is a concern about traffic and revenue moving away from mobile 
>> networks to
>> providers which do not have the same regulatory obligations or cost
>> structure. For example, in some countries, some LEO satellite 
>> providers do
>> not pay for the use of radio spectrum. These are important issues to
>> examine in their short, medium and long term impacts.
>>
>>
>>
>> Strand Consult’s global project for Broadband Cost Recovery and Business
>> Models <https://strandconsult.dk/category/fair-cost-recovery/> 
>> examines the
>> challenges for mobile telecom operators to build and run networks and 
>> the
>> set of solutions to improve return on investment.  A key region 
>> impacted by
>> LEO satellites is the Caribbean. Strand Consult’s report *“Gigabit
>> Caribbean: Closing the Investment Gap in Fixed and Mobile Networks”
>> <https://strandconsult.dk/gigabit-caribbean-closing-the-investment-gap-in-fixed-and-mobile-networks/> 
>>
>> *describes the inherent challenge to deliver return on investment in 
>> remote
>> areas with limited population and in the face of growing traffic from
>> outside providers which contribute zero financially to the local 
>> economy.
>> LEO satellites may be a double-edged sword in that they may provide
>> connectivity in an emergency, but they do not conform to local 
>> regulatory
>> requirements, nor do they participate locally financially.  The issue is
>> also relevant for rural broadband providers in the USA which Strand 
>> Consult
>> documented in its report “Broadband Cost Recovery: A Study of Business
>> Models for 50 Broadband Providers In 24 US States.”
>> <https://strandconsult.dk/broadband-cost-recovery-a-study-of-50-broadband-providers-in-24-us-states-new-report-from-strand-consult/> 
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> *The Satellite Race to Reach the Phone.*
>>
>>
>>
>> Among the various players in the Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite market,
>> Starlink <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-24-1193A1.pdf>, 
>> led by
>> Elon Musk’s SpaceX, has emerged as the frontrunner. With a network of
>> almost 7,000 satellites operating, 300+ (2nd generation or Gen2) 
>> satellites
>> have Direct-to-Cell capabilities
>> <https://www.theverge.com/2024/11/27/24307394/starlink-spacex-tmobile-direct-to-cell-satellite-fcc-approval?>. 
>>
>> SpaceX's spectrum regulatory approach outside the U.S. has been 
>> criticized
>> for not always adhering to local licensing frameworks (e.g., cases in
>> India, France, and South Africa). Its reliance on spectrum that local
>> regulators have not officially granted can create tensions with 
>> governments
>> and local telecom providers. Starlink operates a global satellite 
>> network
>> with thousands of satellites covering areas without always having lawful
>> access to the spectrum on which it provides services.
>>
>>
>>
>> This is an even more significant challenge regarding the regular 
>> cellular
>> spectrum used for traditional mobile cellular services licensed and 
>> used by
>> local telecommunication companies. Thus, it requires, at least, the
>> satellite operator to collaborate locally with telco operators who 
>> have the
>> usage rights of the cellular spectrum of interest. Despite these
>> challenges, Starlink’s aggressive strategy and innovative technology 
>> have
>> placed it light years ahead of competitors like Amazon’s Kuiper
>> <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-23-114A1.pdf> and Eutelsat’s
>> OneWeb <https://oneweb.net/>. As of January 2025, Amazon's Project 
>> Kuiper
>> has not yet launched
>> <https://techxplore.com/news/2024-07-amazon-kuiper-delays-satellite-timeline.html> 
>>
>> any operational satellites, including those with Direct-to-Cell (D2C)
>> capabilities. The project is still in development, with plans to 
>> deploy a
>> constellation of 3,236 LEO satellites to provide global broadband 
>> coverage.
>>
>>
>>
>> One of the most remarkable aspects of Starlink’s success is its 
>> ability to
>> build a functional global network without initial access to the 
>> necessary
>> spectrum. This bold approach has drawn comparisons to Jeff Bezos’ Kuiper
>> project, with Strand Consult humorously observing that while Bezos is 
>> still
>> setting up a “burger bar,” Musk is already running an “interstellar
>> McDonald’s.
>>
>> In the report you can read about the companies that are advancing D2C
>> connectivity through LEO satellite constellations, aiming to connect
>> standard mobile devices directly to satellites.
>>
>>
>>
>> Among them, AST SpaceMobile
>> <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-24-756A1.pdf> has 
>> launched five
>> operational satellites, detailed in FCC filings, to deliver 4G and 5G
>> services globally, with plans to expand its network with up to 243
>> satellites. AST SpaceMobile's advanced phased-array antenna, 
>> BlueWalker 3
>> <https://ast-science.com/spacemobile-network/bluewalker-3/>, is one 
>> of the
>> most powerful in the industry required to deliver good quality 
>> services to
>> unmodified cellular consumer devices. Similarly, Lynk Global
>> <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-22-969A1.pdf> has deployed
>> satellites to provide coverage in remote areas, emphasizing partnerships
>> with telecom operators and regulatory approvals.
>>
>>
>>
>> Geespace <https://www.geespace.com/>, part of Geely Technology Group, 
>> has
>> launched 30 satellites in China and plans to expand to 72 by 2025,
>> targeting global broadband and D2C capabilities. The Qianfan ("Thousand
>> Sails") constellation
>> <https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/china-launches-first-satellites-constellation-rival-starlink-newspaper-reports-2024-08-05/>, 
>>
>> in intent and capabilities closest to SpaceX, is another Chinese 
>> initiative
>> that has deployed 54 satellites and aims for over 15,000 by 2030,
>> positioning itself as a major player in satellite-based 
>> communications. US
>> and Chinese initiatives drive significant advancements in D2C 
>> technology,
>> integrating satellite connectivity into everyday communications and
>> addressing global coverage challenges.
>>
>>
>>
>> *Some Takeaways.*
>>
>>
>>
>> Direct-to-Cell LEO satellite networks face considerable technology 
>> hurdles
>> in providing services comparable to terrestrial cellular networks.
>>
>>
>>
>>   - *They must overcome substantial free-space path loss* and ensure
>>   uplink connectivity from low-power mobile devices with omnidirectional
>>   antennas.
>>   - Cellular devices transmit at low power (typically 23–30 dBm), making
>>   it *very challenging for uplink cellular signals* to reach 
>> satellites in
>>   LEO at 300–1,200 km altitudes, particularly if the cellular device is
>>   indoor.
>>   - Uplink signals from multiple devices within a satellite beam area 
>> can
>>   overlap, creating *interference that challenges the satellite’s 
>> ability
>>   to separate and process individual uplink signals*.
>>   - *Must address bandwidth limitations* and efficiently reuse spectrum
>>   while minimizing interference with terrestrial and other satellite 
>> networks.
>>   - Scaling globally may *require satellites to carry varied payload
>>   configurations to accommodate regional spectrum requirements*,
>>   increasing technical complexity and deployment expenses.
>>   - Operating on terrestrial frequencies *necessitates dynamic spectrum
>>   sharing and interference mitigation strategies*, especially in densely
>>   populated areas, limiting coverage efficiency and capacity.
>>   -
>>
>> On the regulatory front, integrating D2C satellite services into 
>> existing
>> mobile ecosystems is complex. Spectrum licensing is a key issue, as
>> satellite operators must either share frequencies already allocated to
>> terrestrial mobile operators or secure dedicated satellite spectrum.
>>
>>
>>
>>   - *Securing access to shared or dedicated spectrum*, particularly
>>   negotiating with terrestrial operators to use licensed frequencies.
>>   - *Avoiding interference* between satellite and terrestrial networks
>>   requires detailed agreements and advanced spectrum management 
>> techniques.
>>   - *Navigating fragmented regulatory frameworks* in Europe, where
>>   national licensing requirements vary significantly.
>>   - The high administrative and operational *burden of scaling
>> globally* diminishes
>>   economic benefits, particularly in regions where terrestrial networks
>>   already dominate.
>>
>>
>>
>> The idea of D2C-capable satellite networks making terrestrial cellular
>> networks obsolete is ambitious but fraught with practical limitations.
>> While LEO satellites offer unparalleled reach in remote and underserved
>> areas, they struggle to match terrestrial networks’ capacity, 
>> reliability,
>> and low latency in urban and suburban environments. The high density of
>> base stations in terrestrial networks enables them to handle far greater
>> traffic volumes, especially for data-intensive applications.
>>
>>
>>
>> The regulatory and operational constraints surrounding using terrestrial
>> mobile frequencies for D2C services severely limit scalability. This
>> fragmentation makes it difficult to achieve global coverage 
>> seamlessly and
>> increases operational and economic inefficiencies. While D2C services 
>> hold
>> promise for addressing connectivity gaps in remote areas, their 
>> ability to
>> scale as a comprehensive alternative to terrestrial networks is 
>> hampered by
>> these challenges. Unless global regulatory harmonization or innovative
>> technical solutions emerge, D2C networks will likely remain a
>> complementary, sub-scale solution rather than a standalone 
>> replacement for
>> terrestrial mobile networks.
>>
>>
>>
>> The report *"Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make
>> Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?"*  is valuable for mobile 
>> operators
>> and their shareholders, policymakers, security and defense analysts,
>> network engineers, and other professionals.
>>
>>
>>
>> Let me know your feedback and questions.
>>
>>
>>
>> Best regards,
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> John Strand
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> Strand Consult is an independent, privately owned consultancy 
>> company. Our
>> main focus is in the wireless sector, what it looks like, how it is
>> developing and how it influences a number of other sectors. Through our
>> research, reports, workshops and consulting, we help create and 
>> expand our
>> customers’ revenue streams by maximising the use of all the new
>> possibilities and opportunities that arise with new technologies and
>> business strategies. About Strand Consult <http://www.strandreports.com>
>>
>>
>>
>> Our primary customers are national and international mobile operators 
>> and
>> our list of customers currently includes over 170 mobile operators 
>> spread
>> across Europe, South America, North America, Australia, Asia and Africa.
>> Based on our research and work with mobile operators we additionally 
>> help
>> many customers in the technology industry and the media sector who 
>> want to
>> learn more about how the telecom industry is influencing their industry.
>>
>>
>>
>> We are regarded as one of the leading authorities on mobile 
>> technologies,
>> business and revenue models and distribution strategies. Our reports are
>> both strategic and cross-disciplinary in their outlook. They do not 
>> focus
>> on a single area, but always examine subjects from five different 
>> angles;
>> operators, technology providers, distribution, content providers and 
>> which
>> existing or new business strategies will have the greatest 
>> probability of
>> being successful. Most of our customers have saved a great deal of 
>> money on
>> consultancy services by purchasing and using our strategic reports.
>>
>>
>>
>> Strand Consult is the supplier of some of the most sought after 
>> lecturers
>> in the mobile world. We frequently speak at a great number of the
>> International conferences about the mobile and media world and how they
>> will develop in the future. You can read more about which conferences we
>> will be speaking at on our website Conferences
>> <http://www.strandconsult.dk/sw484.asp>
>>
>
> _______________________________________________
> Starlink mailing list
> Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink

-- 
****************************************************************
Dr. Ulrich Speidel

School of Computer Science

Room 303S.594 (City Campus)

The University of Auckland
u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz 
http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/
****************************************************************



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Re: [Starlink] Fwd: Here is the first edition of the report: Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?

[David Lang]

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Ulrich Speidel wrote:

> But let's assume you have all that in place. Now where do you go to try it 
> all out? This isn't the US. One NZ's terrestrial network covers almost 
> everywhere with people or roads. Look for yourself: 
> https://one.nz/network/coverage/

At least here in the US, you can find lots of places where the coverage maps say 
you have coverage, but your phone will drop out.

I know 8 lane freeway locations in the Los Angeles area that have spots where 
you have no coverage. look for hills and try the different sides of them.

David Lang

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_______________________________________________
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Re: [Starlink] Fwd: Here is the first edition of the report: Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?

[Ulrich Speidel]

It's not too bad here, at least for TXT. Ironically, I should be having 
full coverage at home on the Auckland Isthmus all the way up to 5G, but 
I only get 1 or 2 bars most of the time! Not that I'd expect any bars 
from Starlink indoors. Or outdoors yet.

On 30/01/2025 9:30 am, David Lang wrote:
> Ulrich Speidel wrote:
>
>> But let's assume you have all that in place. Now where do you go to 
>> try it all out? This isn't the US. One NZ's terrestrial network 
>> covers almost everywhere with people or roads. Look for yourself: 
>> https://one.nz/network/coverage/
>
> At least here in the US, you can find lots of places where the 
> coverage maps say you have coverage, but your phone will drop out.
>
> I know 8 lane freeway locations in the Los Angeles area that have 
> spots where you have no coverage. look for hills and try the different 
> sides of them.
>
> David Lang
>
> _______________________________________________
> Starlink mailing list
> Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink

-- 
****************************************************************
Dr. Ulrich Speidel

School of Computer Science

Room 303S.594 (City Campus)

The University of Auckland
u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz
http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/
****************************************************************

Re: [Starlink] Fwd: Here is the first edition of the report: Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?

[Mike Puchol]

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The report touches on the thorny topic of the uplink, however, IMHO it leaves out one important consideration: battery life. The assumptions on link budget work on the basis of the UE employing full power at the full duty cycle, which would result in a dramatic reduction in battery life of the device.
 
If you have traveled to certain African countries, where mobile networks rely on large and macro cells, rather than densification (for cost reasons), you will have already experienced this, where your smartphone's battery seems to die faster (it does!), as it's working harder to reach the towers.
 
I'll add to this something that Loon learned, and which was published in the Loon Library (page 180), in regards to the quality of devices found in the field:
 
"An issue with these low-priced phones is that their LTE radio performance is significantly worse than the phones Loon used during the development and testing of its
LTE subsystems. This performance readjusted Loon’s expectations for the number
of users that could be serviced, the number of GBs that could be delivered, and from
which environments the users could successfully connect to Loon."
 
It is a fascinating read: https://storage.googleapis.com/x-prod.appspot.com/files/The%20Loon%20Library.pdf
 
Best,
 
Mike
 

> On 29/01/2025 14:09 CET Vint Cerf via Starlink <starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:
>  
>  
> thanks for sharing this analysis with which I resonate. I doubt that the LEO constellations will scale to the same extent that ground-based cellular systems have. However, they will take some traffic. Prices might also be an issue. Interestingly, video conferencing over the Internet is a substitute for traditional telephony and comes naturally thanks to the digital nature of the transmission. 
>  
> v
>  
> 
> On Wed, Jan 29, 2025 at 7:30 AM Hesham ElBakoury via Starlink <starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net mailto:starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:
> 
> >  
> > 
> > ---------- Forwarded message ---------
> > From: John Strand <js@strandconsult.dk mailto:js@strandconsult.dk>
> > Date: Wed, Jan 29, 2025, 4:23 AM
> > Subject: Here is the first edition of the report: Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?
> > To: <info@strandconsult.dk mailto:info@strandconsult.dk>
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > Dear Colleague,
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > Here is the first edition of the report: “Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?” The report is a part of a signature series in Strand Consult´s Global Project for Business Models for Broadband Cost Recovery https://strandconsult.dk/category/fair-cost-recovery/.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > This new report offers a comprehensive analysis of the role of Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites in the telecommunications industry. It examines the advancements in satellite technology, the challenges in achieving service parity with terrestrial networks, and the implications for global connectivity. It explores the technical, economic, and regulatory factors shaping the deployment of Direct-to-Cell satellite services and evaluates whether these networks can complement or replace traditional cellular infrastructure.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > This report aims to illuminate the forces driving developments in LEO satellite networks, the challenges they face, and how these technologies will likely shape the telecommunications industry's future. It aims to provide inspiration and insights that can be used to frame discussions about the trends and transformations affecting connectivity on a global scale.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > When reading recent media and comments on various media postings, one can quickly get the impression that satellites will replace traditional mobile networks. This narrative often simplifies a complex issue, creating the perception that satellite technology is a universal solution to global connectivity challenges. However, a more pragmatic view reveals that satellite networks like those operated by Starlink offer revolutionary opportunities but are unlikely to make terrestrial mobile networks obsolete. Instead, these technologies will coexist, each serving distinct roles in the communication ecosystem.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > There are many mobile telecom operators which fear that low earth orbit (LEO) satellite networks like Starlink and others could impact their business in a negative way like over the top (OTT) providers. Indeed, there is a concern about traffic and revenue moving away from mobile networks to providers which do not have the same regulatory obligations or cost structure. For example, in some countries, some LEO satellite providers do not pay for the use of radio spectrum. These are important issues to examine in their short, medium and long term impacts.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > Strand Consult’s global project for Broadband Cost Recovery and Business Models https://strandconsult.dk/category/fair-cost-recovery/ examines the challenges for mobile telecom operators to build and run networks and the set of solutions to improve return on investment.  A key region impacted by LEO satellites is the Caribbean. Strand Consult’s report “Gigabit Caribbean: Closing the Investment Gap in Fixed and Mobile Networks” https://strandconsult.dk/gigabit-caribbean-closing-the-investment-gap-in-fixed-and-mobile-networks/ describes the inherent challenge to deliver return on investment in remote areas with limited population and in the face of growing traffic from outside providers which contribute zero financially to the local economy. LEO satellites may be a double-edged sword in that they may provide connectivity in an emergency, but they do not conform to local regulatory requirements, nor do they participate locally financially.  The issue is also relevant for rural broadband providers in the USA which Strand Consult documented in its report “Broadband Cost Recovery: A Study of Business Models for 50 Broadband Providers In 24 US States.” https://strandconsult.dk/broadband-cost-recovery-a-study-of-50-broadband-providers-in-24-us-states-new-report-from-strand-consult/
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > The Satellite Race to Reach the Phone.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > Among the various players in the Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite market, Starlink https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-24-1193A1.pdf, led by Elon Musk’s SpaceX, has emerged as the frontrunner. With a network of almost 7,000 satellites operating, 300+ (2nd generation or Gen2) satellites have Direct-to-Cell capabilities https://www.theverge.com/2024/11/27/24307394/starlink-spacex-tmobile-direct-to-cell-satellite-fcc-approval. SpaceX's spectrum regulatory approach outside the U.S. has been criticized for not always adhering to local licensing frameworks (e.g., cases in India, France, and South Africa). Its reliance on spectrum that local regulators have not officially granted can create tensions with governments and local telecom providers. Starlink operates a global satellite network with thousands of satellites covering areas without always having lawful access to the spectrum on which it provides services.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > This is an even more significant challenge regarding the regular cellular spectrum used for traditional mobile cellular services licensed and used by local telecommunication companies. Thus, it requires, at least, the satellite operator to collaborate locally with telco operators who have the usage rights of the cellular spectrum of interest. Despite these challenges, Starlink’s aggressive strategy and innovative technology have placed it light years ahead of competitors like Amazon’s Kuiper https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-23-114A1.pdf and Eutelsat’s OneWeb https://oneweb.net/. As of January 2025, Amazon's Project Kuiper has not yet launched https://techxplore.com/news/2024-07-amazon-kuiper-delays-satellite-timeline.html any operational satellites, including those with Direct-to-Cell (D2C) capabilities. The project is still in development, with plans to deploy a constellation of 3,236 LEO satellites to provide global broadband coverage.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > One of the most remarkable aspects of Starlink’s success is its ability to build a functional global network without initial access to the necessary spectrum. This bold approach has drawn comparisons to Jeff Bezos’ Kuiper project, with Strand Consult humorously observing that while Bezos is still setting up a “burger bar,” Musk is already running an “interstellar McDonald’s.
> > 
> > In the report you can read about the companies that are advancing D2C connectivity through LEO satellite constellations, aiming to connect standard mobile devices directly to satellites.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > Among them, AST SpaceMobile https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-24-756A1.pdf has launched five operational satellites, detailed in FCC filings, to deliver 4G and 5G services globally, with plans to expand its network with up to 243 satellites. AST SpaceMobile's advanced phased-array antenna, BlueWalker 3 https://ast-science.com/spacemobile-network/bluewalker-3/, is one of the most powerful in the industry required to deliver good quality services to unmodified cellular consumer devices. Similarly, Lynk Global https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-22-969A1.pdf has deployed satellites to provide coverage in remote areas, emphasizing partnerships with telecom operators and regulatory approvals.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > Geespace https://www.geespace.com/, part of Geely Technology Group, has launched 30 satellites in China and plans to expand to 72 by 2025, targeting global broadband and D2C capabilities. The Qianfan ("Thousand Sails") constellation https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/china-launches-first-satellites-constellation-rival-starlink-newspaper-reports-2024-08-05/, in intent and capabilities closest to SpaceX, is another Chinese initiative that has deployed 54 satellites and aims for over 15,000 by 2030, positioning itself as a major player in satellite-based communications. US and Chinese initiatives drive significant advancements in D2C technology, integrating satellite connectivity into everyday communications and addressing global coverage challenges.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > Some Takeaways.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > Direct-to-Cell LEO satellite networks face considerable technology hurdles in providing services comparable to terrestrial cellular networks.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > * They must overcome substantial free-space path loss and ensure uplink connectivity from low-power mobile devices with omnidirectional antennas.
> > * Cellular devices transmit at low power (typically 23–30 dBm), making it very challenging for uplink cellular signals to reach satellites in LEO at 300–1,200 km altitudes, particularly if the cellular device is indoor.
> > * Uplink signals from multiple devices within a satellite beam area can overlap, creating interference that challenges the satellite’s ability to separate and process individual uplink signals.
> > * Must address bandwidth limitations and efficiently reuse spectrum while minimizing interference with terrestrial and other satellite networks.
> > * Scaling globally may require satellites to carry varied payload configurations to accommodate regional spectrum requirements, increasing technical complexity and deployment expenses.
> > * Operating on terrestrial frequencies necessitates dynamic spectrum sharing and interference mitigation strategies, especially in densely populated areas, limiting coverage efficiency and capacity.
> > *  
> > 
> > On the regulatory front, integrating D2C satellite services into existing mobile ecosystems is complex. Spectrum licensing is a key issue, as satellite operators must either share frequencies already allocated to terrestrial mobile operators or secure dedicated satellite spectrum.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > * Securing access to shared or dedicated spectrum, particularly negotiating with terrestrial operators to use licensed frequencies.
> > * Avoiding interference between satellite and terrestrial networks requires detailed agreements and advanced spectrum management techniques.
> > * Navigating fragmented regulatory frameworks in Europe, where national licensing requirements vary significantly.
> > * The high administrative and operational burden of scaling globally diminishes economic benefits, particularly in regions where terrestrial networks already dominate.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > The idea of D2C-capable satellite networks making terrestrial cellular networks obsolete is ambitious but fraught with practical limitations. While LEO satellites offer unparalleled reach in remote and underserved areas, they struggle to match terrestrial networks’ capacity, reliability, and low latency in urban and suburban environments. The high density of base stations in terrestrial networks enables them to handle far greater traffic volumes, especially for data-intensive applications.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > The regulatory and operational constraints surrounding using terrestrial mobile frequencies for D2C services severely limit scalability. This fragmentation makes it difficult to achieve global coverage seamlessly and increases operational and economic inefficiencies. While D2C services hold promise for addressing connectivity gaps in remote areas, their ability to scale as a comprehensive alternative to terrestrial networks is hampered by these challenges. Unless global regulatory harmonization or innovative technical solutions emerge, D2C networks will likely remain a complementary, sub-scale solution rather than a standalone replacement for terrestrial mobile networks.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > The report "Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?"  is valuable for mobile operators and their shareholders, policymakers, security and defense analysts, network engineers, and other professionals.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > Let me know your feedback and questions.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > Best regards,
> > 
> >  
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > John Strand
> > 
> >  
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > Strand Consult is an independent, privately owned consultancy company. Our main focus is in the wireless sector, what it looks like, how it is developing and how it influences a number of other sectors. Through our research, reports, workshops and consulting, we help create and expand our customers’ revenue streams by maximising the use of all the new possibilities and opportunities that arise with new technologies and business strategies. About Strand Consult http://www.strandreports.com
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > Our primary customers are national and international mobile operators and our list of customers currently includes over 170 mobile operators spread across Europe, South America, North America, Australia, Asia and Africa. Based on our research and work with mobile operators we additionally help many customers in the technology industry and the media sector who want to learn more about how the telecom industry is influencing their industry.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > We are regarded as one of the leading authorities on mobile technologies, business and revenue models and distribution strategies. Our reports are both strategic and cross-disciplinary in their outlook. They do not focus on a single area, but always examine subjects from five different angles; operators, technology providers, distribution, content providers and which existing or new business strategies will have the greatest probability of being successful. Most of our customers have saved a great deal of money on consultancy services by purchasing and using our strategic reports.
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > Strand Consult is the supplier of some of the most sought after lecturers in the mobile world. We frequently speak at a great number of the International conferences about the mobile and media world and how they will develop in the future. You can read more about which conferences we will be speaking at on our website Conferences http://www.strandconsult.dk/sw484.asp
> > 
> >  
> > 
> >  
> > 
> >  
> > 
> > _______________________________________________
> > Starlink mailing list
> > Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net mailto:Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
> > https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink
> > 
>  
>  
> --
> Please send any postal/overnight deliveries to:
> Vint Cerf
> Google, LLC
> 1900 Reston Metro Plaza, 16th Floor
> Reston, VA 20190
> +1 (571) 213 1346
>  
>  
> until further notice
>  
>  
>  
> _______________________________________________
> Starlink mailing list
> Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink
> 

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Re: [Starlink] Fwd: Here is the first edition of the report: Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?

[Ulrich Speidel]

[-- Attachment #1: Type: text/plain, Size: 19241 bytes --]

Read: cheap phones have noisy receivers or crappy antennas, right?

The macro cell effect you describe is well known here - I typically 
teach this in class to my students here in Auckland. Many of them live 
in the CBD, where there's a 5G mast at every corner, so their batteries 
last forever. I then ask them whether they've ever driven down to 
Wellington (700 km or so through some fairly wap-wappy stretches of 
road) and quite a few hands go up. I then ask them whether anyone 
noticed that their phone battery went flat on the trip and most of the 
same hands go up. In fact, I suspect that the Wellington branch of a 
major parallel import discounter here does half of its business with 
folk who've driven down and think their battery is broken and they need 
a new phone.

On 30/01/2025 4:27 pm, Mike Puchol via Starlink wrote:
> The report touches on the thorny topic of the uplink, however, IMHO it 
> leaves out one important consideration: battery life. The assumptions 
> on link budget work on the basis of the UE employing full power at the 
> full duty cycle, which would result in a dramatic reduction in battery 
> life of the device.
> If you have traveled to certain African countries, where mobile 
> networks rely on large and macro cells, rather than densification (for 
> cost reasons), you will have already experienced this, where your 
> smartphone's battery seems to die faster (it does!), as it's working 
> harder to reach the towers.
> I'll add to this something that Loon learned, and which was published 
> in the Loon Library (page 180), in regards to the quality of devices 
> found in the field:
> "An issue with these low-priced phones is that their LTE radio 
> performance is significantly worse than the phones Loon used during 
> the development and testing of its
> LTE subsystems. This performance readjusted Loon’s expectations for 
> the number
> of users that could be serviced, the number of GBs that could be 
> delivered, and from
> which environments the users could successfully connect to Loon."
> It is a fascinating read: 
> https://storage.googleapis.com/x-prod.appspot.com/files/The%20Loon%20Library.pdf 
>
> Best,
> Mike
>> On 29/01/2025 14:09 CET Vint Cerf via Starlink 
>> <starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:
>> thanks for sharing this analysis with which I resonate. I doubt that 
>> the LEO constellations will scale to the same extent that 
>> ground-based cellular systems have. However, they will take some 
>> traffic. Prices might also be an issue. Interestingly, video 
>> conferencing over the Internet is a substitute for traditional 
>> telephony and comes naturally thanks to the digital nature of the 
>> transmission.
>> v
>>
>> On Wed, Jan 29, 2025 at 7:30 AM Hesham ElBakoury via Starlink 
>> <starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:
>>
>>
>>     ---------- Forwarded message ---------
>>     From: *John Strand* <js@strandconsult.dk>
>>     Date: Wed, Jan 29, 2025, 4:23 AM
>>     Subject: Here is the first edition of the report: Will LEO
>>     Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile
>>     Networks Obsolete?
>>     To: <info@strandconsult.dk>
>>
>>
>>     Dear Colleague,
>>
>>     Here is the first edition of the report: *“Will LEO Satellite
>>     Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks
>>     Obsolete?”* The report is a part of a signature series in Strand
>>     Consult´s Global Project for Business Models for Broadband Cost
>>     Recovery <https://strandconsult.dk/category/fair-cost-recovery/>.
>>
>>     This new report offers a comprehensive analysis of the role of
>>     Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites in the telecommunications
>>     industry. It examines the advancements in satellite technology,
>>     the challenges in achieving service parity with terrestrial
>>     networks, and the implications for global connectivity. It
>>     explores the technical, economic, and regulatory factors shaping
>>     the deployment of Direct-to-Cell satellite services and evaluates
>>     whether these networks can complement or replace traditional
>>     cellular infrastructure.
>>
>>     This report aims to illuminate the forces driving developments in
>>     LEO satellite networks, the challenges they face, and how these
>>     technologies will likely shape the telecommunications industry's
>>     future. It aims to provide inspiration and insights that can be
>>     used to frame discussions about the trends and transformations
>>     affecting connectivity on a global scale.
>>
>>     When reading recent media and comments on various media postings,
>>     one can quickly get the impression that satellites will replace
>>     traditional mobile networks. This narrative often simplifies a
>>     complex issue, creating the perception that satellite technology
>>     is a universal solution to global connectivity challenges.
>>     However, a more pragmatic view reveals that satellite networks
>>     like those operated by Starlink offer revolutionary opportunities
>>     but are unlikely to make terrestrial mobile networks obsolete.
>>     Instead, these technologies will coexist, each serving distinct
>>     roles in the communication ecosystem.
>>
>>     **
>>
>>     There are many mobile telecom operators which fear that low earth
>>     orbit (LEO) satellite networks like Starlink and others could
>>     impact their business in a negative way like over the top (OTT)
>>     providers. Indeed, there is a concern about traffic and revenue
>>     moving away from mobile networks to providers which do not have
>>     the same regulatory obligations or cost structure. For example,
>>     in some countries, some LEO satellite providers do not pay for
>>     the use of radio spectrum. These are important issues to examine
>>     in their short, medium and long term impacts.
>>
>>     Strand Consult’s global project for Broadband Cost Recovery and
>>     Business Models
>>     <https://strandconsult.dk/category/fair-cost-recovery/> examines
>>     the challenges for mobile telecom operators to build and run
>>     networks and the set of solutions to improve return on
>>     investment.  A key region impacted by LEO satellites is the
>>     Caribbean. Strand Consult’s report /“Gigabit Caribbean: Closing
>>     the Investment Gap in Fixed and Mobile Networks”
>>     <https://strandconsult.dk/gigabit-caribbean-closing-the-investment-gap-in-fixed-and-mobile-networks/>
>>     /describes the inherent challenge to deliver return on investment
>>     in remote areas with limited population and in the face of
>>     growing traffic from outside providers which contribute zero
>>     financially to the local economy. LEO satellites may be a
>>     double-edged sword in that they may provide connectivity in an
>>     emergency, but they do not conform to local regulatory
>>     requirements, nor do they participate locally financially.  The
>>     issue is also relevant for rural broadband providers in the USA
>>     which Strand Consult documented in its report “Broadband Cost
>>     Recovery: A Study of Business Models for 50 Broadband Providers
>>     In 24 US States.”
>>     <https://strandconsult.dk/broadband-cost-recovery-a-study-of-50-broadband-providers-in-24-us-states-new-report-from-strand-consult/>
>>
>>     **
>>
>>     *The Satellite Race to Reach the Phone.*
>>
>>     Among the various players in the Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite
>>     market, Starlink
>>     <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-24-1193A1.pdf>, led
>>     by Elon Musk’s SpaceX, has emerged as the frontrunner. With a
>>     network of almost 7,000 satellites operating, 300+ (2^nd
>>     generation or Gen2) satellites have Direct-to-Cell capabilities
>>     <https://www.theverge.com/2024/11/27/24307394/starlink-spacex-tmobile-direct-to-cell-satellite-fcc-approval>.
>>     SpaceX's spectrum regulatory approach outside the U.S. has been
>>     criticized for not always adhering to local licensing frameworks
>>     (e.g., cases in India, France, and South Africa). Its reliance on
>>     spectrum that local regulators have not officially granted can
>>     create tensions with governments and local telecom providers.
>>     Starlink operates a global satellite network with thousands of
>>     satellites covering areas without always having lawful access to
>>     the spectrum on which it provides services.
>>
>>     This is an even more significant challenge regarding the regular
>>     cellular spectrum used for traditional mobile cellular services
>>     licensed and used by local telecommunication companies. Thus, it
>>     requires, at least, the satellite operator to collaborate locally
>>     with telco operators who have the usage rights of the cellular
>>     spectrum of interest. Despite these challenges, Starlink’s
>>     aggressive strategy and innovative technology have placed it
>>     light years ahead of competitors like Amazon’s Kuiper
>>     <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-23-114A1.pdf> and
>>     Eutelsat’s OneWeb <https://oneweb.net/>. As of January 2025,
>>     Amazon's Project Kuiper has not yet launched
>>     <https://techxplore.com/news/2024-07-amazon-kuiper-delays-satellite-timeline.html>
>>     any operational satellites, including those with Direct-to-Cell
>>     (D2C) capabilities. The project is still in development, with
>>     plans to deploy a constellation of 3,236 LEO satellites to
>>     provide global broadband coverage.
>>
>>     One of the most remarkable aspects of Starlink’s success is its
>>     ability to build a functional global network without initial
>>     access to the necessary spectrum. This bold approach has drawn
>>     comparisons to Jeff Bezos’ Kuiper project, with Strand Consult
>>     humorously observing that while Bezos is still setting up a
>>     “burger bar,” Musk is already running an “interstellar McDonald’s.
>>
>>     In the report you can read about the companies that are advancing
>>     D2C connectivity through LEO satellite constellations, aiming to
>>     connect standard mobile devices directly to satellites.
>>
>>     Among them, AST SpaceMobile
>>     <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-24-756A1.pdf> has
>>     launched five operational satellites, detailed in FCC filings, to
>>     deliver 4G and 5G services globally, with plans to expand its
>>     network with up to 243 satellites. AST SpaceMobile's advanced
>>     phased-array antenna, BlueWalker 3
>>     <https://ast-science.com/spacemobile-network/bluewalker-3/>, is
>>     one of the most powerful in the industry required to deliver good
>>     quality services to unmodified cellular consumer devices.
>>     Similarly, Lynk Global
>>     <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-22-969A1.pdf> has
>>     deployed satellites to provide coverage in remote areas,
>>     emphasizing partnerships with telecom operators and regulatory
>>     approvals.
>>
>>     Geespace <https://www.geespace.com/>, part of Geely Technology
>>     Group, has launched 30 satellites in China and plans to expand to
>>     72 by 2025, targeting global broadband and D2C capabilities. The
>>     Qianfan ("Thousand Sails") constellation
>>     <https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/china-launches-first-satellites-constellation-rival-starlink-newspaper-reports-2024-08-05/>,
>>     in intent and capabilities closest to SpaceX, is another Chinese
>>     initiative that has deployed 54 satellites and aims for over
>>     15,000 by 2030, positioning itself as a major player in
>>     satellite-based communications. US and Chinese initiatives drive
>>     significant advancements in D2C technology, integrating satellite
>>     connectivity into everyday communications and addressing global
>>     coverage challenges.
>>
>>     **
>>
>>     *Some Takeaways.*
>>
>>     Direct-to-Cell LEO satellite networks face considerable
>>     technology hurdles in providing services comparable to
>>     terrestrial cellular networks.
>>
>>       * *They must overcome substantial free-space path loss* and
>>         ensure uplink connectivity from low-power mobile devices with
>>         omnidirectional antennas.
>>       * Cellular devices transmit at low power (typically 23–30 dBm),
>>         making it *very challenging for uplink cellular signals* to
>>         reach satellites in LEO at 300–1,200 km altitudes,
>>         particularly if the cellular device is indoor.
>>       * Uplink signals from multiple devices within a satellite beam
>>         area can overlap, creating *interference that challenges the
>>         satellite’s ability to separate and process individual uplink
>>         signals*.
>>       * *Must address bandwidth limitations* and efficiently
>>         reuse spectrum while minimizing interference with terrestrial
>>         and other satellite networks.
>>       * Scaling globally may *require satellites to carry varied
>>         payload configurations to accommodate regional spectrum
>>         requirements*, increasing technical complexity and deployment
>>         expenses.
>>       * Operating on terrestrial frequencies *necessitates dynamic
>>         spectrum sharing and interference mitigation strategies*,
>>         especially in densely populated areas, limiting coverage
>>         efficiency and capacity.
>>      *
>>
>>     On the regulatory front, integrating D2C satellite services into
>>     existing mobile ecosystems is complex. Spectrum licensing is a
>>     key issue, as satellite operators must either share frequencies
>>     already allocated to terrestrial mobile operators or secure
>>     dedicated satellite spectrum.
>>
>>       * *Securing access to shared or dedicated spectrum*,
>>         particularly negotiating with terrestrial operators to use
>>         licensed frequencies.
>>       * *Avoiding interference* between satellite and terrestrial
>>         networks requires detailed agreements and advanced spectrum
>>         management techniques.
>>       * *Navigating fragmented regulatory frameworks* in Europe,
>>         where national licensing requirements vary significantly.
>>       * The high administrative and operational *burden of scaling
>>         globally* diminishes economic benefits, particularly in
>>         regions where terrestrial networks already dominate.
>>
>>     The idea of D2C-capable satellite networks making terrestrial
>>     cellular networks obsolete is ambitious but fraught with
>>     practical limitations. While LEO satellites offer unparalleled
>>     reach in remote and underserved areas, they struggle to match
>>     terrestrial networks’ capacity, reliability, and low latency in
>>     urban and suburban environments. The high density of base
>>     stations in terrestrial networks enables them to handle far
>>     greater traffic volumes, especially for data-intensive applications.
>>
>>     The regulatory and operational constraints surrounding using
>>     terrestrial mobile frequencies for D2C services severely limit
>>     scalability. This fragmentation makes it difficult to achieve
>>     global coverage seamlessly and increases operational and economic
>>     inefficiencies. While D2C services hold promise for addressing
>>     connectivity gaps in remote areas, their ability to scale as a
>>     comprehensive alternative to terrestrial networks is hampered by
>>     these challenges. Unless global regulatory harmonization or
>>     innovative technical solutions emerge, D2C networks will likely
>>     remain a complementary, sub-scale solution rather than a
>>     standalone replacement for terrestrial mobile networks.
>>
>>     The report */"Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make
>>     Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?"/* is valuable for mobile
>>     operators and their shareholders, policymakers, security and
>>     defense analysts, network engineers, and other professionals.
>>
>>     Let me know your feedback and questions.
>>
>>     Best regards,
>>
>>     John Strand
>>
>>     Strand Consult is an independent, privately owned consultancy
>>     company. Our main focus is in the wireless sector, what it looks
>>     like, how it is developing and how it influences a number of
>>     other sectors. Through our research, reports, workshops and
>>     consulting, we help create and expand our customers’ revenue
>>     streams by maximising the use of all the new possibilities and
>>     opportunities that arise with new technologies and business
>>     strategies. About Strand Consult <http://www.strandreports.com>
>>
>>     Our primary customers are national and international mobile
>>     operators and our list of customers currently includes over 170
>>     mobile operators spread across Europe, South America, North
>>     America, Australia, Asia and Africa. Based on our research and
>>     work with mobile operators we additionally help many customers in
>>     the technology industry and the media sector who want to learn
>>     more about how the telecom industry is influencing their industry.
>>
>>     We are regarded as one of the leading authorities on mobile
>>     technologies, business and revenue models and distribution
>>     strategies. Our reports are both strategic and cross-disciplinary
>>     in their outlook. They do not focus on a single area, but always
>>     examine subjects from five different angles; operators,
>>     technology providers, distribution, content providers and which
>>     existing or new business strategies will have the greatest
>>     probability of being successful. Most of our customers have saved
>>     a great deal of money on consultancy services by purchasing and
>>     using our strategic reports.
>>
>>     Strand Consult is the supplier of some of the most sought after
>>     lecturers in the mobile world. We frequently speak at a great
>>     number of the International conferences about the mobile and
>>     media world and how they will develop in the future. You can read
>>     more about which conferences we will be speaking at on our
>>     website Conferences <http://www.strandconsult.dk/sw484.asp>
>>
>>     _______________________________________________
>>     Starlink mailing list
>>     Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
>>     https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink 
>>
>> -- 
>> Please send any postal/overnight deliveries to:
>> Vint Cerf
>> Google, LLC
>> 1900 Reston Metro Plaza, 16th Floor
>> Reston, VA 20190
>> +1 (571) 213 1346
>> until further notice
>> _______________________________________________
>> Starlink mailing list
>> Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
>> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink 
>
> _______________________________________________
> Starlink mailing list
> Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink

-- 
****************************************************************
Dr. Ulrich Speidel

School of Computer Science

Room 303S.594 (City Campus)

The University of Auckland
u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz 
http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/
****************************************************************



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Re: [Starlink] Fwd: Here is the first edition of the report: Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?

[David Lang]

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David Lang wrote:

> as I wrote back in 2013 
> https://www.usenix.org/publications/login/april-2013-volume-38-number-2/wireless-means-radio
> when you have a lot of people to support, airtime is your most limiting 
> factor, the smaller the area you are covering from one station, the more 
> users you can support
>
> So just like cell phone companies deploy microcells in dense cities, the 
> regular cell service are microcells compared to anything you can do from 
> orbit.
>
> But it may be tht traditional mobile networks won't have to setup stations 
> every few miles along highways and can just concentrate on the denser areas 
> (which are also cheaper to serve)
>
> now to go read the pdf ;-)

finally did get a chance to read this. All very good points, but they did miss 
the cell footprint/frequency reuse problem

with traditional cells being 0.5-5km radius and Starlink cells starting off at 
~70km radius, the total bandwidth available to the traditional network is around 
200x (5km cells) to 20,000x (0.5km cells) higher, just from being able to have 
multiple people talking on the same frequency to different towers, on top of all 
the other problems that are talked about in this paper.

David Lang



> David Lang
>
> On Wed, 29 Jan 2025, Hesham ElBakoury via Starlink wrote:
>
>> Date: Wed, 29 Jan 2025 04:29:45 -0800
>> From: Hesham ElBakoury via Starlink <starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net>
>> Reply-To: Hesham ElBakoury <helbakoury@gmail.com>
>> To: Dave Taht via Starlink <starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net>,
>>     5grm-satellite@ieee.org
>> Subject: [Starlink] Fwd: Here is the first edition of the report: Will LEO
>>     Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks
>>     Obsolete?
>> 
>> ---------- Forwarded message ---------
>> From: John Strand <js@strandconsult.dk>
>> Date: Wed, Jan 29, 2025, 4:23 AM
>> Subject: Here is the first edition of the report: Will LEO Satellite
>> Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?
>> To: <info@strandconsult.dk>
>> 
>> 
>> Dear Colleague,
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> Here is the first edition of the report: *“Will LEO Satellite
>> Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?”*
>> The report is a part of a signature series in Strand Consult´s Global
>> Project for Business Models for Broadband Cost Recovery
>> <https://strandconsult.dk/category/fair-cost-recovery/>.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> This new report offers a comprehensive analysis of the role of Low-Earth
>> Orbit (LEO) satellites in the telecommunications industry. It examines the
>> advancements in satellite technology, the challenges in achieving service
>> parity with terrestrial networks, and the implications for global
>> connectivity. It explores the technical, economic, and regulatory factors
>> shaping the deployment of Direct-to-Cell satellite services and evaluates
>> whether these networks can complement or replace traditional cellular
>> infrastructure.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> This report aims to illuminate the forces driving developments in LEO
>> satellite networks, the challenges they face, and how these technologies
>> will likely shape the telecommunications industry's future. It aims to
>> provide inspiration and insights that can be used to frame discussions
>> about the trends and transformations affecting connectivity on a global
>> scale.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> When reading recent media and comments on various media postings, one can
>> quickly get the impression that satellites will replace traditional mobile
>> networks. This narrative often simplifies a complex issue, creating the
>> perception that satellite technology is a universal solution to global
>> connectivity challenges. However, a more pragmatic view reveals that
>> satellite networks like those operated by Starlink offer revolutionary
>> opportunities but are unlikely to make terrestrial mobile networks
>> obsolete. Instead, these technologies will coexist, each serving distinct
>> roles in the communication ecosystem.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> There are many mobile telecom operators which fear that low earth orbit
>> (LEO) satellite networks like Starlink and others could impact their
>> business in a negative way like over the top (OTT) providers. Indeed, there
>> is a concern about traffic and revenue moving away from mobile networks to
>> providers which do not have the same regulatory obligations or cost
>> structure. For example, in some countries, some LEO satellite providers do
>> not pay for the use of radio spectrum. These are important issues to
>> examine in their short, medium and long term impacts.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> Strand Consult’s global project for Broadband Cost Recovery and Business
>> Models <https://strandconsult.dk/category/fair-cost-recovery/> examines the
>> challenges for mobile telecom operators to build and run networks and the
>> set of solutions to improve return on investment.  A key region impacted by
>> LEO satellites is the Caribbean. Strand Consult’s report *“Gigabit
>> Caribbean: Closing the Investment Gap in Fixed and Mobile Networks”
>> <https://strandconsult.dk/gigabit-caribbean-closing-the-investment-gap-in-fixed-and-mobile-networks/>
>> *describes the inherent challenge to deliver return on investment in remote
>> areas with limited population and in the face of growing traffic from
>> outside providers which contribute zero financially to the local economy.
>> LEO satellites may be a double-edged sword in that they may provide
>> connectivity in an emergency, but they do not conform to local regulatory
>> requirements, nor do they participate locally financially.  The issue is
>> also relevant for rural broadband providers in the USA which Strand Consult
>> documented in its report “Broadband Cost Recovery: A Study of Business
>> Models for 50 Broadband Providers In 24 US States.”
>> <https://strandconsult.dk/broadband-cost-recovery-a-study-of-50-broadband-providers-in-24-us-states-new-report-from-strand-consult/>
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> *The Satellite Race to Reach the Phone.*
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> Among the various players in the Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite market,
>> Starlink <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-24-1193A1.pdf>, led by
>> Elon Musk’s SpaceX, has emerged as the frontrunner. With a network of
>> almost 7,000 satellites operating, 300+ (2nd generation or Gen2) satellites
>> have Direct-to-Cell capabilities
>> <https://www.theverge.com/2024/11/27/24307394/starlink-spacex-tmobile-direct-to-cell-satellite-fcc-approval?>.
>> SpaceX's spectrum regulatory approach outside the U.S. has been criticized
>> for not always adhering to local licensing frameworks (e.g., cases in
>> India, France, and South Africa). Its reliance on spectrum that local
>> regulators have not officially granted can create tensions with governments
>> and local telecom providers. Starlink operates a global satellite network
>> with thousands of satellites covering areas without always having lawful
>> access to the spectrum on which it provides services.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> This is an even more significant challenge regarding the regular cellular
>> spectrum used for traditional mobile cellular services licensed and used by
>> local telecommunication companies. Thus, it requires, at least, the
>> satellite operator to collaborate locally with telco operators who have the
>> usage rights of the cellular spectrum of interest. Despite these
>> challenges, Starlink’s aggressive strategy and innovative technology have
>> placed it light years ahead of competitors like Amazon’s Kuiper
>> <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-23-114A1.pdf> and Eutelsat’s
>> OneWeb <https://oneweb.net/>. As of January 2025, Amazon's Project Kuiper
>> has not yet launched
>> <https://techxplore.com/news/2024-07-amazon-kuiper-delays-satellite-timeline.html>
>> any operational satellites, including those with Direct-to-Cell (D2C)
>> capabilities. The project is still in development, with plans to deploy a
>> constellation of 3,236 LEO satellites to provide global broadband coverage.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> One of the most remarkable aspects of Starlink’s success is its ability to
>> build a functional global network without initial access to the necessary
>> spectrum. This bold approach has drawn comparisons to Jeff Bezos’ Kuiper
>> project, with Strand Consult humorously observing that while Bezos is still
>> setting up a “burger bar,” Musk is already running an “interstellar
>> McDonald’s.
>> 
>> In the report you can read about the companies that are advancing D2C
>> connectivity through LEO satellite constellations, aiming to connect
>> standard mobile devices directly to satellites.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> Among them, AST SpaceMobile
>> <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-24-756A1.pdf> has launched five
>> operational satellites, detailed in FCC filings, to deliver 4G and 5G
>> services globally, with plans to expand its network with up to 243
>> satellites. AST SpaceMobile's advanced phased-array antenna, BlueWalker 3
>> <https://ast-science.com/spacemobile-network/bluewalker-3/>, is one of the
>> most powerful in the industry required to deliver good quality services to
>> unmodified cellular consumer devices. Similarly, Lynk Global
>> <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-22-969A1.pdf> has deployed
>> satellites to provide coverage in remote areas, emphasizing partnerships
>> with telecom operators and regulatory approvals.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> Geespace <https://www.geespace.com/>, part of Geely Technology Group, has
>> launched 30 satellites in China and plans to expand to 72 by 2025,
>> targeting global broadband and D2C capabilities. The Qianfan ("Thousand
>> Sails") constellation
>> <https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/china-launches-first-satellites-constellation-rival-starlink-newspaper-reports-2024-08-05/>,
>> in intent and capabilities closest to SpaceX, is another Chinese initiative
>> that has deployed 54 satellites and aims for over 15,000 by 2030,
>> positioning itself as a major player in satellite-based communications. US
>> and Chinese initiatives drive significant advancements in D2C technology,
>> integrating satellite connectivity into everyday communications and
>> addressing global coverage challenges.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> *Some Takeaways.*
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> Direct-to-Cell LEO satellite networks face considerable technology hurdles
>> in providing services comparable to terrestrial cellular networks.
>> 
>> 
>>
>>   - *They must overcome substantial free-space path loss* and ensure
>>   uplink connectivity from low-power mobile devices with omnidirectional
>>   antennas.
>>   - Cellular devices transmit at low power (typically 23–30 dBm), making
>>   it *very challenging for uplink cellular signals* to reach satellites in
>>   LEO at 300–1,200 km altitudes, particularly if the cellular device is
>>   indoor.
>>   - Uplink signals from multiple devices within a satellite beam area can
>>   overlap, creating *interference that challenges the satellite’s ability
>>   to separate and process individual uplink signals*.
>>   - *Must address bandwidth limitations* and efficiently reuse spectrum
>>   while minimizing interference with terrestrial and other satellite 
>> networks.
>>   - Scaling globally may *require satellites to carry varied payload
>>   configurations to accommodate regional spectrum requirements*,
>>   increasing technical complexity and deployment expenses.
>>   - Operating on terrestrial frequencies *necessitates dynamic spectrum
>>   sharing and interference mitigation strategies*, especially in densely
>>   populated areas, limiting coverage efficiency and capacity.
>>   -
>> 
>> On the regulatory front, integrating D2C satellite services into existing
>> mobile ecosystems is complex. Spectrum licensing is a key issue, as
>> satellite operators must either share frequencies already allocated to
>> terrestrial mobile operators or secure dedicated satellite spectrum.
>> 
>> 
>>
>>   - *Securing access to shared or dedicated spectrum*, particularly
>>   negotiating with terrestrial operators to use licensed frequencies.
>>   - *Avoiding interference* between satellite and terrestrial networks
>>   requires detailed agreements and advanced spectrum management techniques.
>>   - *Navigating fragmented regulatory frameworks* in Europe, where
>>   national licensing requirements vary significantly.
>>   - The high administrative and operational *burden of scaling
>> globally* diminishes
>>   economic benefits, particularly in regions where terrestrial networks
>>   already dominate.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> The idea of D2C-capable satellite networks making terrestrial cellular
>> networks obsolete is ambitious but fraught with practical limitations.
>> While LEO satellites offer unparalleled reach in remote and underserved
>> areas, they struggle to match terrestrial networks’ capacity, reliability,
>> and low latency in urban and suburban environments. The high density of
>> base stations in terrestrial networks enables them to handle far greater
>> traffic volumes, especially for data-intensive applications.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> The regulatory and operational constraints surrounding using terrestrial
>> mobile frequencies for D2C services severely limit scalability. This
>> fragmentation makes it difficult to achieve global coverage seamlessly and
>> increases operational and economic inefficiencies. While D2C services hold
>> promise for addressing connectivity gaps in remote areas, their ability to
>> scale as a comprehensive alternative to terrestrial networks is hampered by
>> these challenges. Unless global regulatory harmonization or innovative
>> technical solutions emerge, D2C networks will likely remain a
>> complementary, sub-scale solution rather than a standalone replacement for
>> terrestrial mobile networks.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> The report *"Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make
>> Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?"*  is valuable for mobile operators
>> and their shareholders, policymakers, security and defense analysts,
>> network engineers, and other professionals.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> Let me know your feedback and questions.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> Best regards,
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> John Strand
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> Strand Consult is an independent, privately owned consultancy company. Our
>> main focus is in the wireless sector, what it looks like, how it is
>> developing and how it influences a number of other sectors. Through our
>> research, reports, workshops and consulting, we help create and expand our
>> customers’ revenue streams by maximising the use of all the new
>> possibilities and opportunities that arise with new technologies and
>> business strategies. About Strand Consult <http://www.strandreports.com>
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> Our primary customers are national and international mobile operators and
>> our list of customers currently includes over 170 mobile operators spread
>> across Europe, South America, North America, Australia, Asia and Africa.
>> Based on our research and work with mobile operators we additionally help
>> many customers in the technology industry and the media sector who want to
>> learn more about how the telecom industry is influencing their industry.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> We are regarded as one of the leading authorities on mobile technologies,
>> business and revenue models and distribution strategies. Our reports are
>> both strategic and cross-disciplinary in their outlook. They do not focus
>> on a single area, but always examine subjects from five different angles;
>> operators, technology providers, distribution, content providers and which
>> existing or new business strategies will have the greatest probability of
>> being successful. Most of our customers have saved a great deal of money on
>> consultancy services by purchasing and using our strategic reports.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> Strand Consult is the supplier of some of the most sought after lecturers
>> in the mobile world. We frequently speak at a great number of the
>> International conferences about the mobile and media world and how they
>> will develop in the future. You can read more about which conferences we
>> will be speaking at on our website Conferences
>> <http://www.strandconsult.dk/sw484.asp>
>

Re: [Starlink] Fwd: Here is the first edition of the report: Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?

[Ulrich Speidel]

[-- Attachment #1: Type: text/plain, Size: 25799 bytes --]

A bit more on this. Yesterday was the day of reckoning - the Samsung S25 
series phones that were on top of One NZ's "satellite ready" list went 
on sale.

So I couldn't resist looking at what was in store at the One NZ stores - 
of these and the other approved phones. One NZ have 50 stores across 13 
regions in NZ ("regions" as per their website). Here is what I found online:

  * S25 Ultra: Theoretically available in 12 different versions (3
    memory configs, 4 colours each). There seemed to be some
    availability in the 256GB (lowest) config in most regions. Beyond
    that, it got quite sparse. Four versions showed no stock anywhere,
    another five showed only stores with low stock (which is often a
    euphemism here for "our system shows that we have one but we can't
    find it"). Only three models showed any stores that claimed to have
    more than low stock. One model was in more than low stock in 17
    stores, another in 30. For the 3rd model, only one store claimed
    more than low stock. No model was available in more than half of One
    NZ's 13 Auckland stores. A parallel importer sold the phone for the
    same price, plus a NZ$500 gift voucher thrown in, with 9 out of the
    12 models available at their Auckland stores, and each model
    available at more than one store.
  * S25+: One of the 8 possible versions of this model was available
    from only two stores nationwide, with both showing low stock. The
    parallel importer doesn't sell the S25+ at all.
  * S25: Two out of 8 versions showed availability, but only of sorts.
    One showed low stock in 10 stores, the other in one store only.
  * S24 Ultra: Two versions on the website. One had stock in one store
    only, with low stock in five others. The other version showed stock
    in two stores, with low stock in four others. The parallel importer
    had stock of one of the versions in all of its Auckland branches.
  * S24+: satellite-ready ... but not actually advertised as being for
    sale on the One NZ website.
  * S24: satellite-ready ... but for sale on the One NZ website only,
    not a store item.
  * S24FE: Two versions here. The blue one showed sufficient stock in 3
    stores nationwide, and low stock in 9 more. The other one showed
    stock in 4 stores and low stock in another 21.
  * S23 Ultra: satellite-ready ... but not actually advertised as being
    for sale on the One NZ website.
  * S23: satellite-ready ... but not actually advertised as being for
    sale on the One NZ website.
  * Z Flip 6: Theoretically available in three versions but only one
    store, showing low stock. The parallel importer had plenty, at
    NZ$322 less.
  * Z Fold 6: Theoretically available in two versions but only one
    store, showing low stock. The parallel importer had plenty, at
    NZ$455 less.
  * Oppo Find X8 Pro: Theoretically available in two versions but only
    one store showed sufficient stock for only one of them. One version
    was in low stock in 6 stores, the other also in 6 stores. Again, the
    parallel importer had plenty.

So I went down to their Queen Street store (walking distance from my 
office) yesterday, which is the closest they come to a flagship store 
here. They were meant to have some stock according to the website.

The three sales staff there all wore T-shirts with "Starlink" and "One 
NZ" logos on them. That said, two of them also wore vests / coats that 
covered the logos on the T-shirt and only had a One NZ logo. This struck 
me as a bit weird given that it's summer here (finally) and hot outside 
and their aircon was not so cold. They had most of the satellite-capable 
models on display with small signs next to them that said "satellite 
ready" and "satellite TXT with an eligible plan", however the signs were 
not very prominent and some were half-covered by other stuff.

I had to queue for about 30 minutes. None of the other customers in 
front of me bought a satellite-capable phone. In fact, the only ones 
that bought a phone were an elderly couple who bought a tiny one. When I 
eventually got to talk to a staff member, he told me that yes they had 
stock. He said that he'd pre-sold a Samsung S25 range phone the day 
before and that his colleague had sold one that morning. I asked him 
whether they sold a lot of them and he said no, never. I asked whether 
there had been a queue outside in the morning when they opened and he 
said again no.

Who knows, maybe the situation is different when you order the phone 
online, but given how busy their shop was, you'd think they'd want to 
market it there.

I don't know, but this is more reminiscent of the supply situation in 
East German shops in the late 1980's under socialism than the dawn of a 
new age. Clearly getting hold of the hardware wholesale isn't an issue 
as their parallel importing competitor shows. And I guess if I was under 
criminal charges for false advertising, I probably wouldn't want to be 
caught advertising phones that strictly speaking I'm not able to sell in 
most of my shops. And then advertise a service that comes with these 
phones that "may not work" with phones bought elsewhere.

On 30/01/2025 9:24 am, Ulrich Speidel wrote:
>
> I've been asked a few times what user experience is like with the 
> Starlink cellular service now available through One NZ (formerly 
> Vodafone) in New Zealand.
>
> The short answer is that I don't know (any users).
>
> What I do know is that in November, the NZ Commerce Commission filed 
> criminal charges against One NZ over their advertising of "100% mobile 
> coverage":
>
> https://comcom.govt.nz/news-and-media/media-releases/2024/comcom-takes-legal-action-over-one-nzs-100-coverage-claims-for-spacex-service
>
> Yep they ran TV ads. The service launched to great fanfare in 
> December. TXT only of course. Now the information about the satellite 
> service is almost a bit difficult to find on the One NZ website.
>
> It gets weirder, though. The only phones approved for the service at 
> the moment are their top end Android models, with 8 Samsung and one 
> OPPO model approved as of this morning. No iphones. Of the 8 Samsung 
> models, three are from the S25 series and can only be pre-ordered. Two 
> are from the S23 series, and aren't available for sale on their 
> website. In the small print, it says "Phones purchased outside of New 
> Zealand (including parallel imports) may not be compatible." Read: If 
> you didn't buy your phone from us, we're under no obligation to make 
> it work. I guess this probably means that if you bought your high end 
> phone from a discounter (parallel import), then its IMEI won't be on 
> One NZ's approved list. Given that the newly approved phones that 
> aren't for sale anymore were several hundred dollars cheaper at the 
> parallel import discounters, it's probably a good guess that there 
> aren't all that many One NZ devices from that range out there.
>
> Now just buying one of these devices from them doesn't get you the 
> service though. You also need a 36 month plan from them. These come 
> essentially in two sizes. One that starts at about twice the rate of 
> the monthly prepay plan that keeps me chugging over here. If you want 
> that, you have to pay a premium on the phone. The other is about three 
> times the rate and gets you the phone cheapest (but still hundreds of 
> bucks more than at the parallel importers).
>
> But let's assume you have all that in place. Now where do you go to 
> try it all out? This isn't the US. One NZ's terrestrial network covers 
> almost everywhere with people or roads. Look for yourself: 
> https://one.nz/network/coverage/
>
> Those who go where it doesn't reach tend to be tourists, poor as mice, 
> or farmers with land mobile radio. None of them are likely buyers of 
> high end phones or can afford an expensive contract.
>
> But even if they do get to TXT, in One NZ's own words:
>
>> One NZ Satellite TXT offers an extra layer of protection to existing 
>> safety devices. If you're planning a visit to somewhere remote, it's 
>> always recommended to take a /personal locator beacon/ in case of 
>> emergency.
> I have one of these. Cost about the difference between an eligible 
> phone and its parallel import version, and doesn't need a contract. A 
> mate of mine works next door to the NZ Rescue Coordination Centre and 
> says they're now rescuing people where previously they wouldn't have 
> even found the bodies.
> On 30/01/2025 3:05 am, David Lang via Starlink wrote:
>> as I wrote back in 2013 
>> https://www.usenix.org/publications/login/april-2013-volume-38-number-2/wireless-means-radio
>> when you have a lot of people to support, airtime is your most 
>> limiting factor, the smaller the area you are covering from one 
>> station, the more users you can support
>>
>> So just like cell phone companies deploy microcells in dense cities, 
>> the regular cell service are microcells compared to anything you can 
>> do from orbit.
>>
>> But it may be tht traditional mobile networks won't have to setup 
>> stations every few miles along highways and can just concentrate on 
>> the denser areas (which are also cheaper to serve)
>>
>> now to go read the pdf ;-)
>>
>> David Lang
>>
>> On Wed, 29 Jan 2025, Hesham ElBakoury via Starlink wrote:
>>
>>> Date: Wed, 29 Jan 2025 04:29:45 -0800
>>> From: Hesham ElBakoury via Starlink <starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net>
>>> Reply-To: Hesham ElBakoury <helbakoury@gmail.com>
>>> To: Dave Taht via Starlink <starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net>,
>>> 5grm-satellite@ieee.org
>>> Subject: [Starlink] Fwd: Here is the first edition of the report: 
>>> Will LEO
>>>     Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile 
>>> Networks
>>>     Obsolete?
>>>
>>> ---------- Forwarded message ---------
>>> From: John Strand <js@strandconsult.dk>
>>> Date: Wed, Jan 29, 2025, 4:23 AM
>>> Subject: Here is the first edition of the report: Will LEO Satellite
>>> Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?
>>> To: <info@strandconsult.dk>
>>>
>>>
>>> Dear Colleague,
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Here is the first edition of the report: *“Will LEO Satellite
>>> Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks 
>>> Obsolete?”*
>>> The report is a part of a signature series in Strand Consult´s Global
>>> Project for Business Models for Broadband Cost Recovery
>>> <https://strandconsult.dk/category/fair-cost-recovery/>.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> This new report offers a comprehensive analysis of the role of 
>>> Low-Earth
>>> Orbit (LEO) satellites in the telecommunications industry. It 
>>> examines the
>>> advancements in satellite technology, the challenges in achieving 
>>> service
>>> parity with terrestrial networks, and the implications for global
>>> connectivity. It explores the technical, economic, and regulatory 
>>> factors
>>> shaping the deployment of Direct-to-Cell satellite services and 
>>> evaluates
>>> whether these networks can complement or replace traditional cellular
>>> infrastructure.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> This report aims to illuminate the forces driving developments in LEO
>>> satellite networks, the challenges they face, and how these 
>>> technologies
>>> will likely shape the telecommunications industry's future. It aims to
>>> provide inspiration and insights that can be used to frame discussions
>>> about the trends and transformations affecting connectivity on a global
>>> scale.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> When reading recent media and comments on various media postings, 
>>> one can
>>> quickly get the impression that satellites will replace traditional 
>>> mobile
>>> networks. This narrative often simplifies a complex issue, creating the
>>> perception that satellite technology is a universal solution to global
>>> connectivity challenges. However, a more pragmatic view reveals that
>>> satellite networks like those operated by Starlink offer revolutionary
>>> opportunities but are unlikely to make terrestrial mobile networks
>>> obsolete. Instead, these technologies will coexist, each serving 
>>> distinct
>>> roles in the communication ecosystem.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> There are many mobile telecom operators which fear that low earth orbit
>>> (LEO) satellite networks like Starlink and others could impact their
>>> business in a negative way like over the top (OTT) providers. 
>>> Indeed, there
>>> is a concern about traffic and revenue moving away from mobile 
>>> networks to
>>> providers which do not have the same regulatory obligations or cost
>>> structure. For example, in some countries, some LEO satellite 
>>> providers do
>>> not pay for the use of radio spectrum. These are important issues to
>>> examine in their short, medium and long term impacts.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Strand Consult’s global project for Broadband Cost Recovery and 
>>> Business
>>> Models <https://strandconsult.dk/category/fair-cost-recovery/> 
>>> examines the
>>> challenges for mobile telecom operators to build and run networks 
>>> and the
>>> set of solutions to improve return on investment.  A key region 
>>> impacted by
>>> LEO satellites is the Caribbean. Strand Consult’s report *“Gigabit
>>> Caribbean: Closing the Investment Gap in Fixed and Mobile Networks”
>>> <https://strandconsult.dk/gigabit-caribbean-closing-the-investment-gap-in-fixed-and-mobile-networks/> 
>>>
>>> *describes the inherent challenge to deliver return on investment in 
>>> remote
>>> areas with limited population and in the face of growing traffic from
>>> outside providers which contribute zero financially to the local 
>>> economy.
>>> LEO satellites may be a double-edged sword in that they may provide
>>> connectivity in an emergency, but they do not conform to local 
>>> regulatory
>>> requirements, nor do they participate locally financially. The issue is
>>> also relevant for rural broadband providers in the USA which Strand 
>>> Consult
>>> documented in its report “Broadband Cost Recovery: A Study of Business
>>> Models for 50 Broadband Providers In 24 US States.”
>>> <https://strandconsult.dk/broadband-cost-recovery-a-study-of-50-broadband-providers-in-24-us-states-new-report-from-strand-consult/> 
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> *The Satellite Race to Reach the Phone.*
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Among the various players in the Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite 
>>> market,
>>> Starlink <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-24-1193A1.pdf>, 
>>> led by
>>> Elon Musk’s SpaceX, has emerged as the frontrunner. With a network of
>>> almost 7,000 satellites operating, 300+ (2nd generation or Gen2) 
>>> satellites
>>> have Direct-to-Cell capabilities
>>> <https://www.theverge.com/2024/11/27/24307394/starlink-spacex-tmobile-direct-to-cell-satellite-fcc-approval?>. 
>>>
>>> SpaceX's spectrum regulatory approach outside the U.S. has been 
>>> criticized
>>> for not always adhering to local licensing frameworks (e.g., cases in
>>> India, France, and South Africa). Its reliance on spectrum that local
>>> regulators have not officially granted can create tensions with 
>>> governments
>>> and local telecom providers. Starlink operates a global satellite 
>>> network
>>> with thousands of satellites covering areas without always having 
>>> lawful
>>> access to the spectrum on which it provides services.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> This is an even more significant challenge regarding the regular 
>>> cellular
>>> spectrum used for traditional mobile cellular services licensed and 
>>> used by
>>> local telecommunication companies. Thus, it requires, at least, the
>>> satellite operator to collaborate locally with telco operators who 
>>> have the
>>> usage rights of the cellular spectrum of interest. Despite these
>>> challenges, Starlink’s aggressive strategy and innovative technology 
>>> have
>>> placed it light years ahead of competitors like Amazon’s Kuiper
>>> <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-23-114A1.pdf> and 
>>> Eutelsat’s
>>> OneWeb <https://oneweb.net/>. As of January 2025, Amazon's Project 
>>> Kuiper
>>> has not yet launched
>>> <https://techxplore.com/news/2024-07-amazon-kuiper-delays-satellite-timeline.html> 
>>>
>>> any operational satellites, including those with Direct-to-Cell (D2C)
>>> capabilities. The project is still in development, with plans to 
>>> deploy a
>>> constellation of 3,236 LEO satellites to provide global broadband 
>>> coverage.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> One of the most remarkable aspects of Starlink’s success is its 
>>> ability to
>>> build a functional global network without initial access to the 
>>> necessary
>>> spectrum. This bold approach has drawn comparisons to Jeff Bezos’ 
>>> Kuiper
>>> project, with Strand Consult humorously observing that while Bezos 
>>> is still
>>> setting up a “burger bar,” Musk is already running an “interstellar
>>> McDonald’s.
>>>
>>> In the report you can read about the companies that are advancing D2C
>>> connectivity through LEO satellite constellations, aiming to connect
>>> standard mobile devices directly to satellites.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Among them, AST SpaceMobile
>>> <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-24-756A1.pdf> has 
>>> launched five
>>> operational satellites, detailed in FCC filings, to deliver 4G and 5G
>>> services globally, with plans to expand its network with up to 243
>>> satellites. AST SpaceMobile's advanced phased-array antenna, 
>>> BlueWalker 3
>>> <https://ast-science.com/spacemobile-network/bluewalker-3/>, is one 
>>> of the
>>> most powerful in the industry required to deliver good quality 
>>> services to
>>> unmodified cellular consumer devices. Similarly, Lynk Global
>>> <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-22-969A1.pdf> has deployed
>>> satellites to provide coverage in remote areas, emphasizing 
>>> partnerships
>>> with telecom operators and regulatory approvals.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Geespace <https://www.geespace.com/>, part of Geely Technology 
>>> Group, has
>>> launched 30 satellites in China and plans to expand to 72 by 2025,
>>> targeting global broadband and D2C capabilities. The Qianfan ("Thousand
>>> Sails") constellation
>>> <https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/china-launches-first-satellites-constellation-rival-starlink-newspaper-reports-2024-08-05/>, 
>>>
>>> in intent and capabilities closest to SpaceX, is another Chinese 
>>> initiative
>>> that has deployed 54 satellites and aims for over 15,000 by 2030,
>>> positioning itself as a major player in satellite-based 
>>> communications. US
>>> and Chinese initiatives drive significant advancements in D2C 
>>> technology,
>>> integrating satellite connectivity into everyday communications and
>>> addressing global coverage challenges.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> *Some Takeaways.*
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Direct-to-Cell LEO satellite networks face considerable technology 
>>> hurdles
>>> in providing services comparable to terrestrial cellular networks.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>   - *They must overcome substantial free-space path loss* and ensure
>>>   uplink connectivity from low-power mobile devices with 
>>> omnidirectional
>>>   antennas.
>>>   - Cellular devices transmit at low power (typically 23–30 dBm), 
>>> making
>>>   it *very challenging for uplink cellular signals* to reach 
>>> satellites in
>>>   LEO at 300–1,200 km altitudes, particularly if the cellular device is
>>>   indoor.
>>>   - Uplink signals from multiple devices within a satellite beam 
>>> area can
>>>   overlap, creating *interference that challenges the satellite’s 
>>> ability
>>>   to separate and process individual uplink signals*.
>>>   - *Must address bandwidth limitations* and efficiently reuse spectrum
>>>   while minimizing interference with terrestrial and other satellite 
>>> networks.
>>>   - Scaling globally may *require satellites to carry varied payload
>>>   configurations to accommodate regional spectrum requirements*,
>>>   increasing technical complexity and deployment expenses.
>>>   - Operating on terrestrial frequencies *necessitates dynamic spectrum
>>>   sharing and interference mitigation strategies*, especially in 
>>> densely
>>>   populated areas, limiting coverage efficiency and capacity.
>>>   -
>>>
>>> On the regulatory front, integrating D2C satellite services into 
>>> existing
>>> mobile ecosystems is complex. Spectrum licensing is a key issue, as
>>> satellite operators must either share frequencies already allocated to
>>> terrestrial mobile operators or secure dedicated satellite spectrum.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>   - *Securing access to shared or dedicated spectrum*, particularly
>>>   negotiating with terrestrial operators to use licensed frequencies.
>>>   - *Avoiding interference* between satellite and terrestrial networks
>>>   requires detailed agreements and advanced spectrum management 
>>> techniques.
>>>   - *Navigating fragmented regulatory frameworks* in Europe, where
>>>   national licensing requirements vary significantly.
>>>   - The high administrative and operational *burden of scaling
>>> globally* diminishes
>>>   economic benefits, particularly in regions where terrestrial networks
>>>   already dominate.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> The idea of D2C-capable satellite networks making terrestrial cellular
>>> networks obsolete is ambitious but fraught with practical limitations.
>>> While LEO satellites offer unparalleled reach in remote and underserved
>>> areas, they struggle to match terrestrial networks’ capacity, 
>>> reliability,
>>> and low latency in urban and suburban environments. The high density of
>>> base stations in terrestrial networks enables them to handle far 
>>> greater
>>> traffic volumes, especially for data-intensive applications.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> The regulatory and operational constraints surrounding using 
>>> terrestrial
>>> mobile frequencies for D2C services severely limit scalability. This
>>> fragmentation makes it difficult to achieve global coverage 
>>> seamlessly and
>>> increases operational and economic inefficiencies. While D2C 
>>> services hold
>>> promise for addressing connectivity gaps in remote areas, their 
>>> ability to
>>> scale as a comprehensive alternative to terrestrial networks is 
>>> hampered by
>>> these challenges. Unless global regulatory harmonization or innovative
>>> technical solutions emerge, D2C networks will likely remain a
>>> complementary, sub-scale solution rather than a standalone 
>>> replacement for
>>> terrestrial mobile networks.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> The report *"Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make
>>> Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?"*  is valuable for mobile 
>>> operators
>>> and their shareholders, policymakers, security and defense analysts,
>>> network engineers, and other professionals.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Let me know your feedback and questions.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Best regards,
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> John Strand
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Strand Consult is an independent, privately owned consultancy 
>>> company. Our
>>> main focus is in the wireless sector, what it looks like, how it is
>>> developing and how it influences a number of other sectors. Through our
>>> research, reports, workshops and consulting, we help create and 
>>> expand our
>>> customers’ revenue streams by maximising the use of all the new
>>> possibilities and opportunities that arise with new technologies and
>>> business strategies. About Strand Consult 
>>> <http://www.strandreports.com>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Our primary customers are national and international mobile 
>>> operators and
>>> our list of customers currently includes over 170 mobile operators 
>>> spread
>>> across Europe, South America, North America, Australia, Asia and 
>>> Africa.
>>> Based on our research and work with mobile operators we additionally 
>>> help
>>> many customers in the technology industry and the media sector who 
>>> want to
>>> learn more about how the telecom industry is influencing their 
>>> industry.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> We are regarded as one of the leading authorities on mobile 
>>> technologies,
>>> business and revenue models and distribution strategies. Our reports 
>>> are
>>> both strategic and cross-disciplinary in their outlook. They do not 
>>> focus
>>> on a single area, but always examine subjects from five different 
>>> angles;
>>> operators, technology providers, distribution, content providers and 
>>> which
>>> existing or new business strategies will have the greatest 
>>> probability of
>>> being successful. Most of our customers have saved a great deal of 
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>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Strand Consult is the supplier of some of the most sought after 
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>>> in the mobile world. We frequently speak at a great number of the
>>> International conferences about the mobile and media world and how they
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>>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> Starlink mailing list
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>> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink
> -- 
> ****************************************************************
> Dr. Ulrich Speidel
>
> School of Computer Science
>
> Room 303S.594 (City Campus)
>
> The University of Auckland
> u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz 
> http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/
> ****************************************************************
>
>
>
-- 
****************************************************************
Dr. Ulrich Speidel

School of Computer Science

Room 303S.594 (City Campus)

The University of Auckland
u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz 
http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/
****************************************************************



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