From mboxrd@z Thu Jan 1 00:00:00 1970 Return-Path: Received: from vsmx001.dclux.xion.oxcs.net (vsmx001.dclux.xion.oxcs.net [185.74.65.81]) (using TLSv1.2 with cipher ADH-AES256-GCM-SHA384 (256/256 bits)) (No client certificate requested) by lists.bufferbloat.net (Postfix) with ESMTPS id 0D1693B29D for ; Wed, 29 Jan 2025 22:27:41 -0500 (EST) Received: from submission-proxy-68bcbcfbb8-dn2kw (unknown [104.132.0.68]) by mx-out.dclux.xion.oxcs.net (Postfix) with ESMTPA id 4B1DBA630B0 for ; Thu, 30 Jan 2025 03:27:39 +0000 (UTC) DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=simple/simple; d=dclux.xion.oxcs.net; s=mail1; t=1738207661; bh=SaNG0RNkQCSbhfTws4lL64B9P61r3dhECGQ4H49dDS8=; h=Date:From:To:In-Reply-To:References:Subject:From; b=kmVg8z/OcRo0ENIp4+s/HjGASVGC0rjM7jRoFKI6Sn/myyYSNP372de3/iYd48POK tyxEvBqNBvgZldIJBJBPG3BXqtpCg/BVKU8wWbbp0a3+Pssw24DN9A0tdzz2RKkE0B /ujpB/ibnsQkAEz7fC+RjVE5NuVxGYo57H9QWWinELYF7TZRn3JP0X4v+G+RLadl6u /ABepQkF5P8NlL1bbTHqD0JP4Sq+UCoLJqGLIt8p5BtXk9cU07hM4CXvlbfnsHipaM /fHxRGIsz8vomRXr2rYPK//PQFBMBF5ov3GZ4jmCGqxxkCiGJF9VR8Ks+HHgrcgitT 71FL9OrM1GlIw== Date: Thu, 30 Jan 2025 04:27:39 +0100 (CET) From: Mike Puchol To: Vint Cerf via Starlink Message-ID: <1326178528.539855.1738207659214@www.openxchange.eu> In-Reply-To: References: <021301db71d0$96340750$c29c15f0$@strandconsult.dk> <002f01db7248$9721d430$c5657c90$@strandconsult.dk> MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_Part_539854_521035476.1738207659199" X-Priority: 3 Importance: Normal X-Mailer: Open-Xchange Mailer v8.33.56 X-Originating-IP: 104.132.0.68 X-Originating-Port: 38068 X-Originating-Client: open-xchange-appsuite X-VadeSecure-Status: LEGIT X-VADE-STATUS: LEGIT Subject: Re: [Starlink] Fwd: Here is the first edition of the report: Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete? X-BeenThere: starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.20 Precedence: list List-Id: "Starlink has bufferbloat. Bad." List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 30 Jan 2025 03:27:42 -0000 ------=_Part_539854_521035476.1738207659199 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable The report touches on the thorny topic of the uplink, however, IMHO it leav= es out one important consideration: battery life. The assumptions on link b= udget work on the basis of the UE employing full power at the full duty cyc= le, which would result in a dramatic reduction in battery life of the devic= e. =20 If you have traveled to certain African countries, where mobile networks re= ly on large and macro cells, rather than densification (for cost reasons), = you will have already experienced this, where your smartphone's battery see= ms to die faster (it does!), as it's working harder to reach the towers. =20 I'll add to this something that Loon learned, and which was published in th= e Loon Library (page 180), in regards to the quality of devices found in th= e field: =20 "An issue with these low-priced phones is that their LTE radio performance = is significantly worse than the phones Loon used during the development and= testing of its LTE subsystems. This performance readjusted Loon=E2=80=99s expectations for= the number of users that could be serviced, the number of GBs that could be delivered,= and from which environments the users could successfully connect to Loon." =20 It is a fascinating read: https://storage.googleapis.com/x-prod.appspot.com= /files/The%20Loon%20Library.pdf =20 Best, =20 Mike =20 > On 29/01/2025 14:09 CET Vint Cerf via Starlink wrote: > =20 > =20 > thanks for sharing this analysis with which I resonate. I doubt that the = LEO constellations will scale to the same extent that ground-based cellular= systems have. However, they will take some traffic. Prices might also be a= n issue. Interestingly, video conferencing over the Internet is a substitut= e for traditional telephony and comes naturally thanks to the digital natur= e of the transmission.=20 > =20 > v > =20 >=20 > On Wed, Jan 29, 2025 at 7:30=E2=80=AFAM Hesham ElBakoury via Starlink wrote: >=20 > > =20 > >=20 > > ---------- Forwarded message --------- > > From: John Strand > > Date: Wed, Jan 29, 2025, 4:23=E2=80=AFAM > > Subject: Here is the first edition of the report: Will LEO Satellite Di= rect-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete? > > To: > >=20 > >=20 > >=20 > > Dear Colleague, > >=20 > > =20 > >=20 > > Here is the first edition of the report: =E2=80=9CWill LEO Satellite Di= rect-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?=E2=80= =9D The report is a part of a signature series in Strand Consult=C2=B4s Glo= bal Project for Business Models for Broadband Cost Recovery https://strandc= onsult.dk/category/fair-cost-recovery/. > >=20 > > =20 > >=20 > > This new report offers a comprehensive analysis of the role of Low-Eart= h Orbit (LEO) satellites in the telecommunications industry. It examines th= e advancements in satellite technology, the challenges in achieving service= parity with terrestrial networks, and the implications for global connecti= vity. It explores the technical, economic, and regulatory factors shaping t= he deployment of Direct-to-Cell satellite services and evaluates whether th= ese networks can complement or replace traditional cellular infrastructure. > >=20 > > =20 > >=20 > > This report aims to illuminate the forces driving developments in LEO s= atellite networks, the challenges they face, and how these technologies wil= l likely shape the telecommunications industry's future. It aims to provide= inspiration and insights that can be used to frame discussions about the t= rends and transformations affecting connectivity on a global scale. > >=20 > > =20 > >=20 > > When reading recent media and comments on various media postings, one c= an quickly get the impression that satellites will replace traditional mobi= le networks. This narrative often simplifies a complex issue, creating the = perception that satellite technology is a universal solution to global conn= ectivity challenges. However, a more pragmatic view reveals that satellite = networks like those operated by Starlink offer revolutionary opportunities = but are unlikely to make terrestrial mobile networks obsolete. Instead, the= se technologies will coexist, each serving distinct roles in the communicat= ion ecosystem. > >=20 > > =20 > >=20 > > There are many mobile telecom operators which fear that low earth orbit= (LEO) satellite networks like Starlink and others could impact their busin= ess in a negative way like over the top (OTT) providers. Indeed, there is a= concern about traffic and revenue moving away from mobile networks to prov= iders which do not have the same regulatory obligations or cost structure. = For example, in some countries, some LEO satellite providers do not pay for= the use of radio spectrum. These are important issues to examine in their = short, medium and long term impacts. > >=20 > > =20 > >=20 > > Strand Consult=E2=80=99s global project for Broadband Cost Recovery and= Business Models https://strandconsult.dk/category/fair-cost-recovery/ exam= ines the challenges for mobile telecom operators to build and run networks = and the set of solutions to improve return on investment. A key region imp= acted by LEO satellites is the Caribbean. Strand Consult=E2=80=99s report = =E2=80=9CGigabit Caribbean: Closing the Investment Gap in Fixed and Mobile = Networks=E2=80=9D https://strandconsult.dk/gigabit-caribbean-closing-the-in= vestment-gap-in-fixed-and-mobile-networks/ describes the inherent challenge= to deliver return on investment in remote areas with limited population an= d in the face of growing traffic from outside providers which contribute ze= ro financially to the local economy. LEO satellites may be a double-edged s= word in that they may provide connectivity in an emergency, but they do not= conform to local regulatory requirements, nor do they participate locally = financially. The issue is also relevant for rural broadband providers in t= he USA which Strand Consult documented in its report =E2=80=9CBroadband Cos= t Recovery: A Study of Business Models for 50 Broadband Providers In 24 US = States.=E2=80=9D https://strandconsult.dk/broadband-cost-recovery-a-study-o= f-50-broadband-providers-in-24-us-states-new-report-from-strand-consult/ > >=20 > > =20 > >=20 > > The Satellite Race to Reach the Phone. > >=20 > > =20 > >=20 > > Among the various players in the Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite market= , Starlink https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-24-1193A1.pdf, led by= Elon Musk=E2=80=99s SpaceX, has emerged as the frontrunner. With a network= of almost 7,000 satellites operating, 300+ (2nd generation or Gen2) satell= ites have Direct-to-Cell capabilities https://www.theverge.com/2024/11/27/2= 4307394/starlink-spacex-tmobile-direct-to-cell-satellite-fcc-approval. Spac= eX's spectrum regulatory approach outside the U.S. has been criticized for = not always adhering to local licensing frameworks (e.g., cases in India, Fr= ance, and South Africa). Its reliance on spectrum that local regulators hav= e not officially granted can create tensions with governments and local tel= ecom providers. Starlink operates a global satellite network with thousands= of satellites covering areas without always having lawful access to the sp= ectrum on which it provides services. > >=20 > > =20 > >=20 > > This is an even more significant challenge regarding the regular cellul= ar spectrum used for traditional mobile cellular services licensed and used= by local telecommunication companies. Thus, it requires, at least, the sat= ellite operator to collaborate locally with telco operators who have the us= age rights of the cellular spectrum of interest. Despite these challenges, = Starlink=E2=80=99s aggressive strategy and innovative technology have place= d it light years ahead of competitors like Amazon=E2=80=99s Kuiper https://= docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-23-114A1.pdf and Eutelsat=E2=80=99s OneW= eb https://oneweb.net/. As of January 2025, Amazon's Project Kuiper has not= yet launched https://techxplore.com/news/2024-07-amazon-kuiper-delays-sate= llite-timeline.html any operational satellites, including those with Direct= -to-Cell (D2C) capabilities. The project is still in development, with plan= s to deploy a constellation of 3,236 LEO satellites to provide global broad= band coverage. > >=20 > > =20 > >=20 > > One of the most remarkable aspects of Starlink=E2=80=99s success is its= ability to build a functional global network without initial access to the= necessary spectrum. This bold approach has drawn comparisons to Jeff Bezos= =E2=80=99 Kuiper project, with Strand Consult humorously observing that whi= le Bezos is still setting up a =E2=80=9Cburger bar,=E2=80=9D Musk is alread= y running an =E2=80=9Cinterstellar McDonald=E2=80=99s. > >=20 > > In the report you can read about the companies that are advancing D2C c= onnectivity through LEO satellite constellations, aiming to connect standar= d mobile devices directly to satellites. > >=20 > > =20 > >=20 > > Among them, AST SpaceMobile https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-= 24-756A1.pdf has launched five operational satellites, detailed in FCC fili= ngs, to deliver 4G and 5G services globally, with plans to expand its netwo= rk with up to 243 satellites. AST SpaceMobile's advanced phased-array anten= na, BlueWalker 3 https://ast-science.com/spacemobile-network/bluewalker-3/,= is one of the most powerful in the industry required to deliver good quali= ty services to unmodified cellular consumer devices. Similarly, Lynk Global= https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-22-969A1.pdf has deployed satel= lites to provide coverage in remote areas, emphasizing partnerships with te= lecom operators and regulatory approvals. > >=20 > > =20 > >=20 > > Geespace https://www.geespace.com/, part of Geely Technology Group, has= launched 30 satellites in China and plans to expand to 72 by 2025, targeti= ng global broadband and D2C capabilities. The Qianfan ("Thousand Sails") co= nstellation https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/china-launches-first-s= atellites-constellation-rival-starlink-newspaper-reports-2024-08-05/, in in= tent and capabilities closest to SpaceX, is another Chinese initiative that= has deployed 54 satellites and aims for over 15,000 by 2030, positioning i= tself as a major player in satellite-based communications. US and Chinese i= nitiatives drive significant advancements in D2C technology, integrating sa= tellite connectivity into everyday communications and addressing global cov= erage challenges. > >=20 > > =20 > >=20 > > Some Takeaways. > >=20 > > =20 > >=20 > > Direct-to-Cell LEO satellite networks face considerable technology hurd= les in providing services comparable to terrestrial cellular networks. > >=20 > > =20 > >=20 > > * They must overcome substantial free-space path loss and ensure uplink= connectivity from low-power mobile devices with omnidirectional antennas. > > * Cellular devices transmit at low power (typically 23=E2=80=9330 dBm),= making it very challenging for uplink cellular signals to reach satellites= in LEO at 300=E2=80=931,200 km altitudes, particularly if the cellular dev= ice is indoor. > > * Uplink signals from multiple devices within a satellite beam area can= overlap, creating interference that challenges the satellite=E2=80=99s abi= lity to separate and process individual uplink signals. > > * Must address bandwidth limitations and efficiently reuse spectrum whi= le minimizing interference with terrestrial and other satellite networks. > > * Scaling globally may require satellites to carry varied payload confi= gurations to accommodate regional spectrum requirements, increasing technic= al complexity and deployment expenses. > > * Operating on terrestrial frequencies necessitates dynamic spectrum sh= aring and interference mitigation strategies, especially in densely populat= ed areas, limiting coverage efficiency and capacity. > > * =20 > >=20 > > On the regulatory front, integrating D2C satellite services into existi= ng mobile ecosystems is complex. Spectrum licensing is a key issue, as sate= llite operators must either share frequencies already allocated to terrestr= ial mobile operators or secure dedicated satellite spectrum. > >=20 > > =20 > >=20 > > * Securing access to shared or dedicated spectrum, particularly negotia= ting with terrestrial operators to use licensed frequencies. > > * Avoiding interference between satellite and terrestrial networks requ= ires detailed agreements and advanced spectrum management techniques. > > * Navigating fragmented regulatory frameworks in Europe, where national= licensing requirements vary significantly. > > * The high administrative and operational burden of scaling globally di= minishes economic benefits, particularly in regions where terrestrial netwo= rks already dominate. > >=20 > > =20 > >=20 > > The idea of D2C-capable satellite networks making terrestrial cellular = networks obsolete is ambitious but fraught with practical limitations. Whil= e LEO satellites offer unparalleled reach in remote and underserved areas, = they struggle to match terrestrial networks=E2=80=99 capacity, reliability,= and low latency in urban and suburban environments. The high density of ba= se stations in terrestrial networks enables them to handle far greater traf= fic volumes, especially for data-intensive applications. > >=20 > > =20 > >=20 > > The regulatory and operational constraints surrounding using terrestria= l mobile frequencies for D2C services severely limit scalability. This frag= mentation makes it difficult to achieve global coverage seamlessly and incr= eases operational and economic inefficiencies. While D2C services hold prom= ise for addressing connectivity gaps in remote areas, their ability to scal= e as a comprehensive alternative to terrestrial networks is hampered by the= se challenges. Unless global regulatory harmonization or innovative technic= al solutions emerge, D2C networks will likely remain a complementary, sub-s= cale solution rather than a standalone replacement for terrestrial mobile n= etworks. > >=20 > > =20 > >=20 > > The report "Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditi= onal Mobile Networks Obsolete?" is valuable for mobile operators and their= shareholders, policymakers, security and defense analysts, network enginee= rs, and other professionals. > >=20 > > =20 > >=20 > > Let me know your feedback and questions. > >=20 > > =20 > >=20 > > Best regards, > >=20 > > =20 > >=20 > > =20 > >=20 > > John Strand > >=20 > > =20 > >=20 > > =20 > >=20 > > Strand Consult is an independent, privately owned consultancy company. = Our main focus is in the wireless sector, what it looks like, how it is dev= eloping and how it influences a number of other sectors. Through our resear= ch, reports, workshops and consulting, we help create and expand our custom= ers=E2=80=99 revenue streams by maximising the use of all the new possibili= ties and opportunities that arise with new technologies and business strate= gies. About Strand Consult http://www.strandreports.com > >=20 > > =20 > >=20 > > Our primary customers are national and international mobile operators a= nd our list of customers currently includes over 170 mobile operators sprea= d across Europe, South America, North America, Australia, Asia and Africa. = Based on our research and work with mobile operators we additionally help m= any customers in the technology industry and the media sector who want to l= earn more about how the telecom industry is influencing their industry. > >=20 > > =20 > >=20 > > We are regarded as one of the leading authorities on mobile technologie= s, business and revenue models and distribution strategies. Our reports are= both strategic and cross-disciplinary in their outlook. They do not focus = on a single area, but always examine subjects from five different angles; o= perators, technology providers, distribution, content providers and which e= xisting or new business strategies will have the greatest probability of be= ing successful. Most of our customers have saved a great deal of money on c= onsultancy services by purchasing and using our strategic reports. > >=20 > > =20 > >=20 > > Strand Consult is the supplier of some of the most sought after lecture= rs in the mobile world. We frequently speak at a great number of the Intern= ational conferences about the mobile and media world and how they will deve= lop in the future. You can read more about which conferences we will be spe= aking at on our website Conferences http://www.strandconsult.dk/sw484.asp > >=20 > > =20 > >=20 > > =20 > >=20 > > =20 > >=20 > > _______________________________________________ > > Starlink mailing list > > Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net mailto:Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net > > https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink > >=20 > =20 > =20 > -- > Please send any postal/overnight deliveries to: > Vint Cerf > Google, LLC > 1900 Reston Metro Plaza, 16th Floor > Reston, VA 20190 > +1 (571) 213 1346 > =20 > =20 > until further notice > =20 > =20 > =20 > _______________________________________________ > Starlink mailing list > Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net > https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink >=20 ------=_Part_539854_521035476.1738207659199 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/html; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
The report touches on the thorny topic of the uplink, however, IMHO it l= eaves out one important consideration: battery life. The assumptions on lin= k budget work on the basis of the UE employing full power at the full duty = cycle, which would result in a dramatic reduction in battery life of the de= vice.
 
If you have traveled to certain African countries, where mobile networks= rely on large and macro cells, rather than densification (for cost reasons= ), you will have already experienced this, where your smartphone's battery = seems to die faster (it does!), as it's working harder to reach the towers.
 
I'll add to this something that Loon learned, and which was published in= the Loon Library (page 180), in regards to the quality of devices found in= the field:
 
"An issue with these low-priced phones is that their LTE radio performan= ce is significantly worse than the phones Loon used during the development = and testing of its
LTE subsystems. This performance readjusted Loon=E2=80=99s expectations = for the number
of users that could be serviced, the number of GBs that could be deliver= ed, and from
which environments the users could successfully connect to Loon."
 
It is a fascinating read: https://storage.googleapis.c= om/x-prod.appspot.com/files/The%20Loon%20Library.pdf
 
Best,
 
Mike
 
On 29/01/2025 14:09 CET Vint Cerf via Starlink <starlink@lists.buffe= rbloat.net> wrote:
 
 
thanks for sharing this analysis with which I resonate. I doubt that th= e LEO constellations will scale to the same extent that ground-based cellul= ar systems have. However, they will take some traffic. Prices might also be= an issue. Interestingly, video conferencing over the Internet is a substit= ute for traditional telephony and comes naturally thanks to the digital nat= ure of the transmission. =20
 
v
 

On Wed, Jan 29, 2025 at 7:30=E2=80=AFAM Hesham ElBakoury via Starlink = <starlink@lists.buffer= bloat.net> wrote:
 

---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: John Strand <js@strandconsult.dk>
Date: Wed, Jan 29, 2025, 4:23=E2=80=AFAM
Subject: Here is the first edition of the report: Will LEO Satellite= Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?
To: <info@strandconsult.dk>


Dear Colleague,

 

Here is the first edition of the report: =E2=80=9CWill LEO Satel= lite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?= =E2=80=9D The report is a part of a signature series in Strand Con= sult=C2=B4s Global Project for Business Models fo= r Broadband Cost Recovery.

 

This new report offers a comprehensive analysis of the role of Low-Earth= Orbit (LEO) satellites in the telecommunications industry. It examines the= advancements in satellite technology, the challenges in achieving service = parity with terrestrial networks, and the implications for global connectiv= ity. It explores the technical, economic, and regulatory factors shaping th= e deployment of Direct-to-Cell satellite services and evaluates whether the= se networks can complement or replace traditional cellular infrastructure.<= /span>

 

This report aims to illuminate the forces driving developments in LEO sa= tellite networks, the challenges they face, and how these technologies will= likely shape the telecommunications industry's future. It aims to provide = inspiration and insights that can be used to frame discussions about the tr= ends and transformations affecting connectivity on a global scale.

 

When reading recent media and comments on various media postings, one ca= n quickly get the impression that satellites will replace traditional mobil= e networks. This narrative often simplifies a complex issue, creating the p= erception that satellite technology is a universal solution to global conne= ctivity challenges. However, a more pragmatic view reveals that satellite n= etworks like those operated by Starlink offer revolutionary opportunities b= ut are unlikely to make terrestrial mobile networks obsolete. Instead, thes= e technologies will coexist, each serving distinct roles in the communicati= on ecosystem.

 

There are many mobile telecom operators which fear that low earth orbit = (LEO) satellite networks like Starlink and others could impact their busine= ss in a negative way like over the top (OTT) providers. Indeed, there is a = concern about traffic and revenue moving away from mobile networks to provi= ders which do not have the same regulatory obligations or cost structure. F= or example, in some countries, some LEO satellite providers do not pay for = the use of radio spectrum. These are important issues to examine in their s= hort, medium and long term impacts.

 

Strand Consult=E2=80=99s global project for Br= oadband Cost Recovery and Business Models examines the challenges for m= obile telecom operators to build and run networks and the set of solutions = to improve return on investment.  A key region impacted by LEO satelli= tes is the Caribbean. Strand Consult=E2=80=99s report =E2=80=9CGigabit Car= ibbean: Closing the Investment Gap in Fixed and Mobile Networks=E2=80=9D describes the inherent c= hallenge to deliver return on investment in remote areas with limited popul= ation and in the face of growing traffic from outside providers which contr= ibute zero financially to the local economy. LEO satellites may be a double= -edged sword in that they may provide connectivity in an emergency, but the= y do not conform to local regulatory requirements, nor do they participate = locally financially.  The issue is also relevant for rural broadband p= roviders in the USA which Strand Consult documented in its report =E2=80=9CBroadband Cost Recovery: A Study of Business = Models for 50 Broadband Providers In 24 US States.=E2=80=9D

 

The Satellite Race to Reach the Phone.

 

Among the various players in the Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite market,= Starlink, led by Elon Musk=E2=80=99s Spac= eX, has emerged as the frontrunner. With a network of almost 7,000 satellit= es operating, 300+ (2nd generation or Gen2) satellites have = Direct-to-Cell capabilities. SpaceX's spectrum regulatory approach outs= ide the U.S. has been criticized for not always adhering to local licensing= frameworks (e.g., cases in India, France, and South Africa). Its reliance = on spectrum that local regulators have not officially granted can create te= nsions with governments and local telecom providers. Starlink operates a gl= obal satellite network with thousands of satellites covering areas without = always having lawful access to the spectrum on which it provides services. =

 

This is an even more significant challenge regarding the regular cellula= r spectrum used for traditional mobile cellular services licensed and used = by local telecommunication companies. Thus, it requires, at least, the sate= llite operator to collaborate locally with telco operators who have the usa= ge rights of the cellular spectrum of interest. Despite these challenges, S= tarlink=E2=80=99s aggressive strategy and innovative technology have placed= it light years ahead of competitors like Amazo= n=E2=80=99s Kuiper and Eutelsat=E2=80=99s OneWeb. As of January 2025, Amazo= n's Project Kuiper has= not yet launched any operational satellites, including those with Dire= ct-to-Cell (D2C) capabilities. The project is still in development, with pl= ans to deploy a constellation of 3,236 LEO satellites to provide global bro= adband coverage.

 

One of the most remarkable aspects of Starlink=E2=80=99s success is its = ability to build a functional global network without initial access to the = necessary spectrum. This bold approach has drawn comparisons to Jeff Bezos= =E2=80=99 Kuiper project, with Strand Consult humorously observing that whi= le Bezos is still setting up a =E2=80=9Cburger bar,=E2=80=9D Musk is alread= y running an =E2=80=9Cinterstellar McDonald=E2=80=99s.

In the report you can read about the companies that are advancing D2C co= nnectivity through LEO satellite constellations, aiming to connect standard= mobile devices directly to satellites.

 

Among them, AST SpaceMobile has launched= five operational satellites, detailed in FCC filings, to deliver 4G and 5G= services globally, with plans to expand its network with up to 243 satelli= tes. AST SpaceMobile's advanced phased-array antenna, BlueWalker 3, is one of the most powerful in the industry requ= ired to deliver good quality services to unmodified cellular consumer devic= es. Similarly, Lynk Global has deployed sat= ellites to provide coverage in remote areas, emphasizing partnerships with = telecom operators and regulatory approvals.

 

Geespace, part of Geely Technology Group, has launched 30 satellites i= n China and plans to expand to 72 by 2025, targeting global broadband and D= 2C capabilities. The Qianfan ("Thousand Sails"= ) constellation, in intent and capabilities closest to SpaceX, is anoth= er Chinese initiative that has deployed 54 satellites and aims for over 15,= 000 by 2030, positioning itself as a major player in satellite-based commun= ications. US and Chinese initiatives drive significant advancements in D2C = technology, integrating satellite connectivity into everyday communications= and addressing global coverage challenges.

 

Some Takeaways.

 

Direct-to-Cell LEO satellite networks face considerable technology hurdl= es in providing services comparable to terrestrial cellular networks.

 

  • They must overcome substantial free-space path loss and ensure uplink= connectivity from low-power mobile devices with omnidirectional antennas.<= /span>
  • Cellular devices transmit at low power (typically 23=E2=80=9330 dBm), = making it very challenging for uplink cellular signals to reach satellites in LEO at 300=E2=80=931,200 km altitudes, partic= ularly if the cellular device is indoor.
  • Uplink signals from multiple devices within a satellite beam area can = overlap, creating interference that challenges the satellite= =E2=80=99s ability to separate and process individual uplink signals.
  • Must address bandwidth limitations and efficiently reuse sp= ectrum while minimizing interference with terrestrial and other satellite n= etworks.
  • Scaling globally may require satellites to carry varied p= ayload configurations to accommodate regional spectrum requirements, increasing technical complexity and deployment expenses.
  • Operating on terrestrial frequencies necessitates dynamic= spectrum sharing and interference mitigation strategies, especial= ly in densely populated areas, limiting coverage efficiency and capacity.
  •  

On the regulatory front, integrating D2C satellite services into existin= g mobile ecosystems is complex. Spectrum licensing is a key issue, as satel= lite operators must either share frequencies already allocated to terrestri= al mobile operators or secure dedicated satellite spectrum.

 

  • Securing access to shared or dedicated spectrum, particularly negotiating = with terrestrial operators to use licensed frequencies.
  • Avoiding interference between satellite and terrestrial networks requ= ires detailed agreements and advanced spectrum management techniques.
  • Navigating fragmented regulatory frameworks in Europe, where national= licensing requirements vary significantly.
  • The high administrative and operational burden of scaling= globally diminishes economic benefits, particularly in regio= ns where terrestrial networks already dominate.

 

The idea of D2C-capable satellite networks making terrestrial cellular n= etworks obsolete is ambitious but fraught with practical limitations. While= LEO satellites offer unparalleled reach in remote and underserved areas, t= hey struggle to match terrestrial networks=E2=80=99 capacity, reliability, = and low latency in urban and suburban environments. The high density of bas= e stations in terrestrial networks enables them to handle far greater traff= ic volumes, especially for data-intensive applications.

 

The regulatory and operational constraints surrounding using terrestrial= mobile frequencies for D2C services severely limit scalability. This fragm= entation makes it difficult to achieve global coverage seamlessly and incre= ases operational and economic inefficiencies. While D2C services hold promi= se for addressing connectivity gaps in remote areas, their ability to scale= as a comprehensive alternative to terrestrial networks is hampered by thes= e challenges. Unless global regulatory harmonization or innovative technica= l solutions emerge, D2C networks will likely remain a complementary, sub-sc= ale solution rather than a standalone replacement for terrestrial mobile ne= tworks.

 

The report "Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobil= e Networks Obsolete?"  is valuable for mobile operators and their shareholder= s, policymakers, security and defense analysts, network engineers, and othe= r professionals.

 

Let me know your feedback and questions.

 

Best regards,

 

 

John Strand

 

 

Strand Consult is an independent, private= ly owned consultancy company. Our main focus is in the wireless sector, wha= t it looks like, how it is developing and how it influences a number of oth= er sectors. Through our research, reports, workshops and consulting, we hel= p create and expand our customers=E2=80=99 revenue streams by maximising th= e use of all the new possibilities and opportunities that arise with new te= chnologies and business strategies. About Strand Consult

 

Our primary customers are national and in= ternational mobile operators and our list of customers currently includes o= ver 170 mobile operators spread across Europe, South America, North America= , Australia, Asia and Africa. Based on our research and work with mobile op= erators we additionally help many customers in the technology industry and = the media sector who want to learn more about how the telecom industry is i= nfluencing their industry.

 

We are regarded as one of the leading aut= horities on mobile technologies, business and revenue models and distributi= on strategies. Our reports are both strategic and cross-disciplinary in the= ir outlook. They do not focus on a single area, but always examine subjects= from five different angles; operators, technology providers, distribution,= content providers and which existing or new business strategies will have = the greatest probability of being successful. Most of our customers have sa= ved a great deal of money on consultancy services by purchasing and using o= ur strategic reports.

 

Strand Consult is the supplier of some of= the most sought after lecturers in the mobile world. We frequently speak a= t a great number of the International conferences about the mobile and medi= a world and how they will develop in the future. You can read more about wh= ich conferences we will be speaking at on our website <= span style=3D"color: blue;">Conferences

 

 

 

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