[Starlink] Re: Starlink looking less niche as its retail presence expands

[Ulrich Speidel <u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz>]

Worth looking a bit beyond the marketing, the gushing influencers, and 
the various bloggers.

99% of the folk who keep reporting on Starlink don't consider three 
aspects that are absolutely key:

 1. What areas new connectivity is being sold to.
 2. What the existing user density in these areas is.
 3. How much data rate you need when push comes to shove.

The simple fact is that Starlink uses Ku band spectrum for end user 
downlink. That spectrum is limited (as in "Hertz", or about 2 GHz, to be 
more specific, and further constrained by licensing issues in quite a 
few places). Support by existing hardwaree aside, going further down in 
frequency isn't really an option as there are existing services there. 
Going further up, and you'll increasingly find that weather makes life 
really difficult with consumer-sized antennas.

So to squeeze the combined bit rates of all of your users through this 
spectrum, Starlink needs power. It needs that power in space, where the 
only way to generate it is with solar cells that are in the dark for 
half the orbit. Assuming for a moment that Starlink is able to produce 
enough power on its fleet for enough beams to point at enough cells, it 
also needs the ability to project that power to the receivers on the 
ground. This is where EPFD limits come in - there's an international 
agreed-upon legal limit on how much power satellites can project onto 
the ground, and with it's Gen 2 sats, Starlink is already right up 
against that limit.

Let's recap: Spectrum's boxed in, and power is boxed in. That imposes a 
hard limit on total capacity (look up the Shannon-Hartley Capacity 
Theorem if you don't believe me). This capacity is all that Starlink has 
to share among its users in a cell. No matter how many satellites they 
launch or how big the rocket. Add more users in a cell, and the capacity 
per user there has to go down. Law of nature.

But it's a little more constrained even: Enter wider area needs, beams, 
and enter competition. Even if a particular sub-band of the Ku band 
spectrum isn't in use in a cell for downlink at a given moment, it 
doesn't actually mean that it's available for use there. That's (a) 
because the beams that are currently pointing at the cell already reach 
the EPFD limit, (b) because a beam operating on that frequency might 
already be in use in a cell nearby downlinking to users there, and leak 
enough signal over into our target cell to ensure the sub-band can't be 
used there because it would interfere, (c) because you mightn't have a 
satellite with an available beam to service the cell (this is the ONLY 
problem more sats can fix) and (d) because the likes of Kuiper & Co. 
also need / want / are entitled to some of that Ku band spectrum. It's 
not like you can launch a new LEO system and simply set up shop in a 
completely different part of the spectrum.

So what does this mean?

 From a commercial perspective, Starlink wants to make money, of course. 
But that requires them to have something to sell.

In truly rural areas with low user density, where Starlink has spare 
capacity in the spectrum, this is a no-brainer - there is something to 
sell, and new users fill gaps there without impacting on what's 
available to existing ones. In rural towns with a few ten thousand 
people per cell and poop fibre and mobile infrastructure, that capacity 
isn't a given - so just selling full-rate plans with Dishys there is 
moving the system towards capacity. In cities and suburbia, it's a mixed 
picture depending on the local infrastructure. Where there's strong 
competition from cheap fibre and people tend to live in apartments that 
can't see the sky, Starlink's a hard sell, but even there a marketing 
drive might net more users than the system can really support simply 
because the market in each cell there is large.

There is plenty of indication that Starlink has been grappling with 
capacity for a while now. We saw them discover their heart for the 
"rural" NZ farmer a couple of years ago, including a lot of townsfolk in 
secondary cities here, whereas the lifestyle blocks around Auckland 
(where all the IT managers live beyond the reach of fibre) were 
mysteriously classified as "urban" and ineligible for the substantial 
rural discount on new Dishys. We've seen "sold out" signs go up on the 
availability map. We've seen minimum download rates drop in many areas. 
We've seen one-off congestion surcharges and now discounted lower 
capacity plans - smaller slices off the total capacity cake.

This isn't trying to blame Starlink - it's a fantastic system - but like 
the rest of us have to live within what the spectrum and physics 
provide, and the better we as users understand where the limitations 
are, the better the decisions we can make for our own connectivity. And 
that might at times actually leave capacity for people who need it more 
than we do.

On 18/09/2025 7:04 am, Inemesit Affia via Starlink wrote:
> I expect if starship is successful and Amazon mounts a challenge, well see
> the most expensive Starlink Residential  plan be around the US (wired)
> average. I believe that's around $70
>
> On Wed, Sep 17, 2025, 7:46 PM Frantisek Borsik<frantisek.borsik@gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> Starlink will become that 2nd or 3rd connectivity option for many, in the
>> coming years - and Kuiper, presumably others, as well. Especially with the
>> introduction of that standby $5 program. They might bring other tiers for
>> something like that in the future.
>>
>> And for some, especially in the rural areas, it will be the one and only
>> option (not crazy expensive and hard to get.)
>>
>> All the best,
>>
>> Frank
>>
>> Frantisek (Frank) Borsik
>>
>>
>> *In loving memory of Dave Täht: *1965-2025
>>
>> https://libreqos.io/2025/04/01/in-loving-memory-of-dave/
>>
>>
>> https://www.linkedin.com/in/frantisekborsik
>>
>> Signal, Telegram, WhatsApp: +421919416714
>>
>> iMessage, mobile: +420775230885
>>
>> Skype: casioa5302ca
>>
>> frantisek.borsik@gmail.com
>>
>>
>> On Wed, Sep 17, 2025 at 8:21 PM Inemesit Affia via Starlink <
>> starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:
>>
>>> Starlink is *advertised* as a rural product as opposed to relegated to
>>> one.
>>> It's available to be used everywhere just like tractors and cow milking
>>> machines.
>>>
>>> In Africa, most users are urban. I'm willing to bet there are more
>>> urban+suburban users in the USA and Australia.
>>>
>>> There are many pockets of unavailability and unreliability.
>>>
>>> I remember seeing a user in a new skyscraper. No mobile service there.
>>>
>>> The benefit for users having retail(including online) availability IMO is
>>> getting hardware & replacements on short notice. Same day or next day.
>>>
>>> On Wed, Sep 17, 2025, 5:55 PM the keyboard of geoff goodfellow via
>>> Starlink
>>> <starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:
>>>
>>>> *Starlink has nearly a dozen retail partners in the US, including Best
>>> Buy
>>>> and Walmart, illustrating the company's desire to make the satellite
>>>> service less of a niche, rural play. However, Starlink's subs still
>>> skew to
>>>> rural areas.*
>>>> EXCERPT:
>>>>
>>>> The Starlink satellite broadband service remains largely relegated to
>>> rural
>>>> areas and does not yet represent a major, direct competitor to wireline
>>>> broadband service providers and fixed wireless access (FWA) offerings in
>>>> urban areas.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> But Starlink's expanding presence at retail sites – along with some
>>> recent
>>>> price cuts – indicates the company isn't content for the service to be
>>>> limited as a niche offering.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Jeff Moore, principal of Wave7 Research and a watcher of marketing
>>> trends
>>>> across the mobile, satellite and broadband landscapes, discovered back
>>> in
>>>> March that Starlink was being sold broadly at Best Buy stores.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> "Since March, every single Best Buy that we have checked in every state
>>> has
>>>> had a highly visible display for Starlink," Moore said, adding that most
>>>> tend to be "endcap" displays placed at the end of aisles.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> And Starlink has been broadening its retail footprint. Citing
>>>> Starlink's evolving
>>>> list of retail partners
>>>> <
>>>>
>>> https://www.starlink.com/support/article/8a90222d-7c32-edd7-51f6-f696ece07105
>>>>> ,
>>>> Moore points out that the service is also being sold by a mix of big-box
>>>> stores and smaller outlets, including Home Depot, Nebraska Furniture
>>> Mart,
>>>> West Marine, Bass Pro Shops, Cabela's, Microcom, Thor Industries,
>>> Tractor
>>>> Supply, Winegard Company and Walmart.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> But Starlink's retail presence is not exactly uniform. According to
>>> Wave7's
>>>> in-person checks, Walmart, for example, has Starlink displays at some
>>>> stores but not in others.
>>>>
>>>> Moore also points out that Starlink's retail presence is not limited to
>>>> rural areas. "We're not seeing it slice that way at all," he said.
>>>>
>>>> Moore said Home Depot is getting more aggressive with Starlink, even if
>>> its
>>>> displays are not exactly "glittering jewels of commercialism."
>>>>
>>>> "They're sort of non-descript displays. If you know what you're looking
>>>> for, you can find it," he said.
>>>>
>>>> That said, Starlink is a "priority" for Home Depot this year and "sales
>>>> have been strong," Moore said, citing information from what he says is a
>>>> well-placed source familiar with the chain. However, the lion's share of
>>>> those sales have been online rather than in-store, he added.
>>>>
>>>> So, what to make of Starlink's increased focus on retail? Moore thinks
>>> it's
>>>> a way for Starlink to gravitate away from being a "niche" product into
>>> more
>>>> of a mass-market product.
>>>>
>>>> Retail partnerships give Starlink another sales channel without having
>>> to
>>>> shell out millions to erect its own physical storefronts. However, the
>>>> retail experience, particularly at big-box stores, can be lackluster.
>>>>
>>>> Roger Entner, founder and analyst at Recon Analytics, said his data
>>> shows
>>>> that satisfaction with the sales process at big-box retailers is
>>> "abysmal,"
>>>> driving negative net promoter scores (NPS). Meanwhile, most Starlink
>>> sales
>>>> occur online.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> *Who are Starlink's customers?*
>>>> Starlink, which relies on a constellation of low-Earth orbit (LEO)
>>>> satellites, reported in July that it has more than 2 million active
>>>> customers in the US. By comparison, its geosynchronous (GEO) satellite
>>>> broadband competitors – Hughes Network Systems and Viasat – are much
>>>> smaller and losing subscribers.
>>>>
>>>> Hughes lost 34,000 subs in Q2 2025, ending with 819,000. Viasat's base
>>> of
>>>> fixed broadband subs has dipped to 172,000. Just this week, EchoStar
>>> execs
>>>> said Hughes Network Systems is pivoting to the enterprise market
>>>> <
>>>>
>>> https://www.lightreading.com/satellite/echostar-execs-dish-on-company-s-forced-pivot-and-the-path-forward
>>>> as the residential side of its satellite business remains in decline.
>>>>
>>>> "Hughes and Viasat are still running TV advertising. They're still a
>>>> competitive and viable option but losing share pretty rapidly." Moore
>>> said.
>>>> Some Viasat and Hughes customers are defecting to Starlink, but most of
>>>> Starlink's customers are leaving small rural telcos and cable operators
>>> for
>>>> the satellite operator, Entner said. Overall, more than 85% of
>>> Starlink's
>>>> customers come from rural areas, while the rest are suburban, according
>>> to
>>>> Recon Analytics data.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> *Service and equipment price cuts*...
>>>>
>>>> [...]
>>>>
>>>>
>>> https://www.lightreading.com/satellite/starlink-looking-less-niche-as-its-retail-presence-expands
>>>> --
>>>> Geoff.Goodfellow@iconia.com
>>>> living as The Truth is True
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-- 
****************************************************************
Dr. Ulrich Speidel

School of Computer Science

Room 303S.594 (City Campus)

The University of Auckland
u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz 
http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/
****************************************************************