Layer 2 service requires layer 1 to work, and given the likely
link budget here with the distances, that is unlikely to be the
case for a significant percentage of the time :-(
As Daniel says, the debate started with a tweet from NZ opposition MP Dr. Shane Reti who decided to give it a shot: https://twitter.com/DrShaneRetiMP/status/1484337150011523072
Shane is a GP and he and I have had a bit of an conversation since last week, so he understands the issues a bit better now. I'm grateful to him for raising the issue though, even if it's not going to help in this case, I hope that the Pacific is on Elon's agenda from now on. It's been in the media here for a few days and they've even interviewed and quoted me (albeit not accurately, as you'll spot quickly):
Update on the Tonga case:
1) Fijian end of the cable has now been recovered, but as I suspected, a significant section of the cable has been wiped out (about 20 km):
https://matangitonga.to/2022/02/08/more-breaks-tonga-cable-suspected-fiji-end
Repair date has now been pushed out to the 20th. Still a tight
time frame for Elon Musk...
2) I've been discussing the possibility of a submarine landslide
off a local seamount with the volcanologist that here looks after
the area, we've both been a bit puzzled at the timing as the
outage time of the international cable didn't square up with any
of the known tsunami or eruptive bursts at Hunga. We have now
found a 4.7 magnitude quake 10 km below said seamount 14 minutes
before the international cable outage, and are looking at the
possibility that this event might have triggered such a landslide.
Extent of damage area and landslide theory fit like a glove.
Timing also looks feasible.
3) The Reliance cable ship is still in the vicinity of the site, but NORTH of the original cable route, indicating that they may be doing some sort of sea floor surveillance. I guess it will now depend on whether they have enough cable on board to fix the issue, they'll certainly require more than you'd need for simple anchor damage. This could necessitate a detour to a service depot with cable stock (e.g., Apia (Samoa)).
There might be lower hanging fruit to pick than Starlink, such as SES O3b mPower connectivity. Part of the logistical issues include that bringing in anything into Tonga at the moment means leaving it on the wharf or airside for 3 days, to allow any Covid contamination to die down, as Tonga was Covid-free until last week. Even though, some dock workers managed to pick up Omicron, probably off the HMAS Adelaide as she berthed with a serious outbreak on board. Three cases initially have now grown to 13, so it's questionable as to whether they'll get on top of it. Tongans have one of the highest rates of obesity, diabetes and cardiovascular disease in the world, and the medical system isn't particularly robust even during normal times.
They're not the only place in the Pacific to have these sorts of
problems, so seeing Starlink show any interest at all is a good
thing. They might want to start with providing service to all of
Fiji.
On 2022-02-07 at 21:46, Inemesit Affia wrote:
> StarLink may be providing layer 2 connectivity rather than IP. A ground
> station can act as a receiver in this case in Tonga and provide
> connectivity directly to the Tonga Telco network. Using ground station type
> antenna may help with performance.
That would only help the main island of Tonga, but none of the other
islands - until the domestic cable is fixed. But by the time the
domestic cable is fixed, the international cable will have been fixed
for some time already.
In any case, I understand the Starlink-for_Tonga idea started with a
Twitter exchange with Mr. Musk on the topic of shipping Starlink user
terminals to Tonga.
Cheers
Daniel
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