Read: cheap phones have noisy receivers or crappy antennas, right? The macro cell effect you describe is well known here - I typically teach this in class to my students here in Auckland. Many of them live in the CBD, where there's a 5G mast at every corner, so their batteries last forever. I then ask them whether they've ever driven down to Wellington (700 km or so through some fairly wap-wappy stretches of road) and quite a few hands go up. I then ask them whether anyone noticed that their phone battery went flat on the trip and most of the same hands go up. In fact, I suspect that the Wellington branch of a major parallel import discounter here does half of its business with folk who've driven down and think their battery is broken and they need a new phone. On 30/01/2025 4:27 pm, Mike Puchol via Starlink wrote: > The report touches on the thorny topic of the uplink, however, IMHO it > leaves out one important consideration: battery life. The assumptions > on link budget work on the basis of the UE employing full power at the > full duty cycle, which would result in a dramatic reduction in battery > life of the device. > If you have traveled to certain African countries, where mobile > networks rely on large and macro cells, rather than densification (for > cost reasons), you will have already experienced this, where your > smartphone's battery seems to die faster (it does!), as it's working > harder to reach the towers. > I'll add to this something that Loon learned, and which was published > in the Loon Library (page 180), in regards to the quality of devices > found in the field: > "An issue with these low-priced phones is that their LTE radio > performance is significantly worse than the phones Loon used during > the development and testing of its > LTE subsystems. This performance readjusted Loon’s expectations for > the number > of users that could be serviced, the number of GBs that could be > delivered, and from > which environments the users could successfully connect to Loon." > It is a fascinating read: > https://storage.googleapis.com/x-prod.appspot.com/files/The%20Loon%20Library.pdf > > Best, > Mike >> On 29/01/2025 14:09 CET Vint Cerf via Starlink >> wrote: >> thanks for sharing this analysis with which I resonate. I doubt that >> the LEO constellations will scale to the same extent that >> ground-based cellular systems have. However, they will take some >> traffic. Prices might also be an issue. Interestingly, video >> conferencing over the Internet is a substitute for traditional >> telephony and comes naturally thanks to the digital nature of the >> transmission. >> v >> >> On Wed, Jan 29, 2025 at 7:30 AM Hesham ElBakoury via Starlink >> wrote: >> >> >> ---------- Forwarded message --------- >> From: *John Strand* >> Date: Wed, Jan 29, 2025, 4:23 AM >> Subject: Here is the first edition of the report: Will LEO >> Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile >> Networks Obsolete? >> To: >> >> >> Dear Colleague, >> >> Here is the first edition of the report: *“Will LEO Satellite >> Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks >> Obsolete?”* The report is a part of a signature series in Strand >> Consult´s Global Project for Business Models for Broadband Cost >> Recovery . >> >> This new report offers a comprehensive analysis of the role of >> Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites in the telecommunications >> industry. It examines the advancements in satellite technology, >> the challenges in achieving service parity with terrestrial >> networks, and the implications for global connectivity. It >> explores the technical, economic, and regulatory factors shaping >> the deployment of Direct-to-Cell satellite services and evaluates >> whether these networks can complement or replace traditional >> cellular infrastructure. >> >> This report aims to illuminate the forces driving developments in >> LEO satellite networks, the challenges they face, and how these >> technologies will likely shape the telecommunications industry's >> future. It aims to provide inspiration and insights that can be >> used to frame discussions about the trends and transformations >> affecting connectivity on a global scale. >> >> When reading recent media and comments on various media postings, >> one can quickly get the impression that satellites will replace >> traditional mobile networks. This narrative often simplifies a >> complex issue, creating the perception that satellite technology >> is a universal solution to global connectivity challenges. >> However, a more pragmatic view reveals that satellite networks >> like those operated by Starlink offer revolutionary opportunities >> but are unlikely to make terrestrial mobile networks obsolete. >> Instead, these technologies will coexist, each serving distinct >> roles in the communication ecosystem. >> >> ** >> >> There are many mobile telecom operators which fear that low earth >> orbit (LEO) satellite networks like Starlink and others could >> impact their business in a negative way like over the top (OTT) >> providers. Indeed, there is a concern about traffic and revenue >> moving away from mobile networks to providers which do not have >> the same regulatory obligations or cost structure. For example, >> in some countries, some LEO satellite providers do not pay for >> the use of radio spectrum. These are important issues to examine >> in their short, medium and long term impacts. >> >> Strand Consult’s global project for Broadband Cost Recovery and >> Business Models >> examines >> the challenges for mobile telecom operators to build and run >> networks and the set of solutions to improve return on >> investment.  A key region impacted by LEO satellites is the >> Caribbean. Strand Consult’s report /“Gigabit Caribbean: Closing >> the Investment Gap in Fixed and Mobile Networks” >> >> /describes the inherent challenge to deliver return on investment >> in remote areas with limited population and in the face of >> growing traffic from outside providers which contribute zero >> financially to the local economy. LEO satellites may be a >> double-edged sword in that they may provide connectivity in an >> emergency, but they do not conform to local regulatory >> requirements, nor do they participate locally financially.  The >> issue is also relevant for rural broadband providers in the USA >> which Strand Consult documented in its report “Broadband Cost >> Recovery: A Study of Business Models for 50 Broadband Providers >> In 24 US States.” >> >> >> ** >> >> *The Satellite Race to Reach the Phone.* >> >> Among the various players in the Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite >> market, Starlink >> , led >> by Elon Musk’s SpaceX, has emerged as the frontrunner. With a >> network of almost 7,000 satellites operating, 300+ (2^nd >> generation or Gen2) satellites have Direct-to-Cell capabilities >> . >> SpaceX's spectrum regulatory approach outside the U.S. has been >> criticized for not always adhering to local licensing frameworks >> (e.g., cases in India, France, and South Africa). Its reliance on >> spectrum that local regulators have not officially granted can >> create tensions with governments and local telecom providers. >> Starlink operates a global satellite network with thousands of >> satellites covering areas without always having lawful access to >> the spectrum on which it provides services. >> >> This is an even more significant challenge regarding the regular >> cellular spectrum used for traditional mobile cellular services >> licensed and used by local telecommunication companies. Thus, it >> requires, at least, the satellite operator to collaborate locally >> with telco operators who have the usage rights of the cellular >> spectrum of interest. Despite these challenges, Starlink’s >> aggressive strategy and innovative technology have placed it >> light years ahead of competitors like Amazon’s Kuiper >> and >> Eutelsat’s OneWeb . As of January 2025, >> Amazon's Project Kuiper has not yet launched >> >> any operational satellites, including those with Direct-to-Cell >> (D2C) capabilities. The project is still in development, with >> plans to deploy a constellation of 3,236 LEO satellites to >> provide global broadband coverage. >> >> One of the most remarkable aspects of Starlink’s success is its >> ability to build a functional global network without initial >> access to the necessary spectrum. This bold approach has drawn >> comparisons to Jeff Bezos’ Kuiper project, with Strand Consult >> humorously observing that while Bezos is still setting up a >> “burger bar,” Musk is already running an “interstellar McDonald’s. >> >> In the report you can read about the companies that are advancing >> D2C connectivity through LEO satellite constellations, aiming to >> connect standard mobile devices directly to satellites. >> >> Among them, AST SpaceMobile >> has >> launched five operational satellites, detailed in FCC filings, to >> deliver 4G and 5G services globally, with plans to expand its >> network with up to 243 satellites. AST SpaceMobile's advanced >> phased-array antenna, BlueWalker 3 >> , is >> one of the most powerful in the industry required to deliver good >> quality services to unmodified cellular consumer devices. >> Similarly, Lynk Global >> has >> deployed satellites to provide coverage in remote areas, >> emphasizing partnerships with telecom operators and regulatory >> approvals. >> >> Geespace , part of Geely Technology >> Group, has launched 30 satellites in China and plans to expand to >> 72 by 2025, targeting global broadband and D2C capabilities. The >> Qianfan ("Thousand Sails") constellation >> , >> in intent and capabilities closest to SpaceX, is another Chinese >> initiative that has deployed 54 satellites and aims for over >> 15,000 by 2030, positioning itself as a major player in >> satellite-based communications. US and Chinese initiatives drive >> significant advancements in D2C technology, integrating satellite >> connectivity into everyday communications and addressing global >> coverage challenges. >> >> ** >> >> *Some Takeaways.* >> >> Direct-to-Cell LEO satellite networks face considerable >> technology hurdles in providing services comparable to >> terrestrial cellular networks. >> >> * *They must overcome substantial free-space path loss* and >> ensure uplink connectivity from low-power mobile devices with >> omnidirectional antennas. >> * Cellular devices transmit at low power (typically 23–30 dBm), >> making it *very challenging for uplink cellular signals* to >> reach satellites in LEO at 300–1,200 km altitudes, >> particularly if the cellular device is indoor. >> * Uplink signals from multiple devices within a satellite beam >> area can overlap, creating *interference that challenges the >> satellite’s ability to separate and process individual uplink >> signals*. >> * *Must address bandwidth limitations* and efficiently >> reuse spectrum while minimizing interference with terrestrial >> and other satellite networks. >> * Scaling globally may *require satellites to carry varied >> payload configurations to accommodate regional spectrum >> requirements*, increasing technical complexity and deployment >> expenses. >> * Operating on terrestrial frequencies *necessitates dynamic >> spectrum sharing and interference mitigation strategies*, >> especially in densely populated areas, limiting coverage >> efficiency and capacity. >> * >> >> On the regulatory front, integrating D2C satellite services into >> existing mobile ecosystems is complex. Spectrum licensing is a >> key issue, as satellite operators must either share frequencies >> already allocated to terrestrial mobile operators or secure >> dedicated satellite spectrum. >> >> * *Securing access to shared or dedicated spectrum*, >> particularly negotiating with terrestrial operators to use >> licensed frequencies. >> * *Avoiding interference* between satellite and terrestrial >> networks requires detailed agreements and advanced spectrum >> management techniques. >> * *Navigating fragmented regulatory frameworks* in Europe, >> where national licensing requirements vary significantly. >> * The high administrative and operational *burden of scaling >> globally* diminishes economic benefits, particularly in >> regions where terrestrial networks already dominate. >> >> The idea of D2C-capable satellite networks making terrestrial >> cellular networks obsolete is ambitious but fraught with >> practical limitations. While LEO satellites offer unparalleled >> reach in remote and underserved areas, they struggle to match >> terrestrial networks’ capacity, reliability, and low latency in >> urban and suburban environments. The high density of base >> stations in terrestrial networks enables them to handle far >> greater traffic volumes, especially for data-intensive applications. >> >> The regulatory and operational constraints surrounding using >> terrestrial mobile frequencies for D2C services severely limit >> scalability. This fragmentation makes it difficult to achieve >> global coverage seamlessly and increases operational and economic >> inefficiencies. While D2C services hold promise for addressing >> connectivity gaps in remote areas, their ability to scale as a >> comprehensive alternative to terrestrial networks is hampered by >> these challenges. Unless global regulatory harmonization or >> innovative technical solutions emerge, D2C networks will likely >> remain a complementary, sub-scale solution rather than a >> standalone replacement for terrestrial mobile networks. >> >> The report */"Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make >> Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?"/* is valuable for mobile >> operators and their shareholders, policymakers, security and >> defense analysts, network engineers, and other professionals. >> >> Let me know your feedback and questions. >> >> Best regards, >> >> John Strand >> >> Strand Consult is an independent, privately owned consultancy >> company. Our main focus is in the wireless sector, what it looks >> like, how it is developing and how it influences a number of >> other sectors. Through our research, reports, workshops and >> consulting, we help create and expand our customers’ revenue >> streams by maximising the use of all the new possibilities and >> opportunities that arise with new technologies and business >> strategies. About Strand Consult >> >> Our primary customers are national and international mobile >> operators and our list of customers currently includes over 170 >> mobile operators spread across Europe, South America, North >> America, Australia, Asia and Africa. Based on our research and >> work with mobile operators we additionally help many customers in >> the technology industry and the media sector who want to learn >> more about how the telecom industry is influencing their industry. >> >> We are regarded as one of the leading authorities on mobile >> technologies, business and revenue models and distribution >> strategies. Our reports are both strategic and cross-disciplinary >> in their outlook. They do not focus on a single area, but always >> examine subjects from five different angles; operators, >> technology providers, distribution, content providers and which >> existing or new business strategies will have the greatest >> probability of being successful. Most of our customers have saved >> a great deal of money on consultancy services by purchasing and >> using our strategic reports. >> >> Strand Consult is the supplier of some of the most sought after >> lecturers in the mobile world. We frequently speak at a great >> number of the International conferences about the mobile and >> media world and how they will develop in the future. You can read >> more about which conferences we will be speaking at on our >> website Conferences >> >> _______________________________________________ >> Starlink mailing list >> Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net >> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink >> >> -- >> Please send any postal/overnight deliveries to: >> Vint Cerf >> Google, LLC >> 1900 Reston Metro Plaza, 16th Floor >> Reston, VA 20190 >> +1 (571) 213 1346 >> until further notice >> _______________________________________________ >> Starlink mailing list >> Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net >> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink > > _______________________________________________ > Starlink mailing list > Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net > https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink -- **************************************************************** Dr. Ulrich Speidel School of Computer Science Room 303S.594 (City Campus) The University of Auckland u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/ ****************************************************************