[Starlink] Hitting an atira asteroid with a spacex starship?

[Starlink] Hitting an atira asteroid with a spacex starship?

[Dave Taht]

So, what would happen if we hit one of these (3 new ones discovered
yesterday) with 50tons of starship, at 15 klicks per second? [1]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atira_asteroid

the three new ones, discovered and announced a day or three back:

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/three-near-earth-asteroids-were-hiding-in-the-suns-glare-180981055/

(Atira class are rocks within earth orbit. They are very hard to see,
probably overly baked (low on volatiles), and get bright sun all the
time)

[1] I'm very inspired by DART, but afraid to do the math for this
tonnage and speed. (anyone? there's a LOT of zeroes... ) I have
project ploughshare on my mind, except kinetic, and it's less
deflection on my mind than reducing a rubble pile to rubble,
identifying the good pieces, and bringing them back.



-- 
This song goes out to all the folk that thought Stadia would work:
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/dtaht_the-mushroom-song-activity-6981366665607352320-FXtz
Dave Täht CEO, TekLibre, LLC

Re: [Starlink] Hitting an atira asteroid with a spacex starship?

[Bruce Perens]

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If you own a 50 ton spaceship, please do not intentionally hit any
asteroids or other objects with it. What you get is smaller objects heading
in different directions at different velocities, none of which are all that
predictable, and in total more danger to objects in space than before and
still significant danger to ground objects. What you want is to turn it
harmless. This is done by gently attaching to it and then giving it a
controlled push.

I've been curious about what one could do over time just using the pressure
of light from the ground, or enough light to gassify material to add delta
V, however high power devices for this would also be effective weapons.

    Thanks

    Bruce

On Thu, Nov 3, 2022 at 5:28 PM Dave Taht via Starlink <
starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:

> So, what would happen if we hit one of these (3 new ones discovered
> yesterday) with 50tons of starship, at 15 klicks per second? [1]
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atira_asteroid
>
> the three new ones, discovered and announced a day or three back:
>
>
> https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/three-near-earth-asteroids-were-hiding-in-the-suns-glare-180981055/
>
> (Atira class are rocks within earth orbit. They are very hard to see,
> probably overly baked (low on volatiles), and get bright sun all the
> time)
>
> [1] I'm very inspired by DART, but afraid to do the math for this
> tonnage and speed. (anyone? there's a LOT of zeroes... ) I have
> project ploughshare on my mind, except kinetic, and it's less
> deflection on my mind than reducing a rubble pile to rubble,
> identifying the good pieces, and bringing them back.
>
>
>
> --
> This song goes out to all the folk that thought Stadia would work:
>
> https://www.linkedin.com/posts/dtaht_the-mushroom-song-activity-6981366665607352320-FXtz
> Dave Täht CEO, TekLibre, LLC
> _______________________________________________
> Starlink mailing list
> Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink
>


-- 
Bruce Perens K6BP

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Re: [Starlink] Hitting an atira asteroid with a spacex starship?

[Dave Taht]

On Thu, Nov 3, 2022 at 10:37 AM Bruce Perens <bruce@perens.com> wrote:
>
> If you own a 50 ton spaceship, please do not intentionally hit any asteroids or other objects with it.

Song of the day: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8RbXIMZmVv8

>What you get is smaller objects heading in different directions at different velocities, none of which are all that predictable, and in total more danger to objects in space than before and still significant danger to ground objects.

Space is a big place, and I'm pretty sure the orbit, impact, and
debris could be tracked.

What would you do with a starship that after launch, due to lost
tiles, or other problems is certain to burn up on re-entry? Why not
test getting out of orbit?

>What you want is to turn it harmless. This is done by gently attaching to it and then giving it a controlled push.

That takes all the fun out of it. Impact is so much easier. Our
knowledge of the solar system is only skin deep.

>
> I've been curious about what one could do over time just using the pressure of light from the ground, or enough light to gassify material to add delta V, however high power devices for this would also be effective weapons.

And kinetic weapons aren't?

>     Thanks
>
>     Bruce
>
> On Thu, Nov 3, 2022 at 5:28 PM Dave Taht via Starlink <starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:
>>
>> So, what would happen if we hit one of these (3 new ones discovered
>> yesterday) with 50tons of starship, at 15 klicks per second? [1]
>>
>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atira_asteroid
>>
>> the three new ones, discovered and announced a day or three back:
>>
>> https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/three-near-earth-asteroids-were-hiding-in-the-suns-glare-180981055/
>>
>> (Atira class are rocks within earth orbit. They are very hard to see,
>> probably overly baked (low on volatiles), and get bright sun all the
>> time)
>>
>> [1] I'm very inspired by DART, but afraid to do the math for this
>> tonnage and speed. (anyone? there's a LOT of zeroes... ) I have
>> project ploughshare on my mind, except kinetic, and it's less
>> deflection on my mind than reducing a rubble pile to rubble,
>> identifying the good pieces, and bringing them back.
>>
>>
>>
>> --
>> This song goes out to all the folk that thought Stadia would work:
>> https://www.linkedin.com/posts/dtaht_the-mushroom-song-activity-6981366665607352320-FXtz
>> Dave Täht CEO, TekLibre, LLC
>> _______________________________________________
>> Starlink mailing list
>> Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
>> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink
>
>
>
> --
> Bruce Perens K6BP



-- 
This song goes out to all the folk that thought Stadia would work:
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/dtaht_the-mushroom-song-activity-6981366665607352320-FXtz
Dave Täht CEO, TekLibre, LLC

Re: [Starlink] Hitting an atira asteroid with a spacex starship?

[Paul McKenney]

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No worries!  I will most definitely make it look like an accident.  ;-)

                                          Thanx, Paul


On Thu, Nov 3, 2022 at 10:37 AM Bruce Perens via Starlink <
starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:

> If you own a 50 ton spaceship, please do not intentionally hit any
> asteroids or other objects with it. What you get is smaller objects heading
> in different directions at different velocities, none of which are all that
> predictable, and in total more danger to objects in space than before and
> still significant danger to ground objects. What you want is to turn it
> harmless. This is done by gently attaching to it and then giving it a
> controlled push.
>
> I've been curious about what one could do over time just using the
> pressure of light from the ground, or enough light to gassify material to
> add delta V, however high power devices for this would also be effective
> weapons.
>
>     Thanks
>
>     Bruce
>
> On Thu, Nov 3, 2022 at 5:28 PM Dave Taht via Starlink <
> starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:
>
>> So, what would happen if we hit one of these (3 new ones discovered
>> yesterday) with 50tons of starship, at 15 klicks per second? [1]
>>
>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atira_asteroid
>>
>> the three new ones, discovered and announced a day or three back:
>>
>>
>> https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/three-near-earth-asteroids-were-hiding-in-the-suns-glare-180981055/
>>
>> (Atira class are rocks within earth orbit. They are very hard to see,
>> probably overly baked (low on volatiles), and get bright sun all the
>> time)
>>
>> [1] I'm very inspired by DART, but afraid to do the math for this
>> tonnage and speed. (anyone? there's a LOT of zeroes... ) I have
>> project ploughshare on my mind, except kinetic, and it's less
>> deflection on my mind than reducing a rubble pile to rubble,
>> identifying the good pieces, and bringing them back.
>>
>>
>>
>> --
>> This song goes out to all the folk that thought Stadia would work:
>>
>> https://www.linkedin.com/posts/dtaht_the-mushroom-song-activity-6981366665607352320-FXtz
>> Dave Täht CEO, TekLibre, LLC
>> _______________________________________________
>> Starlink mailing list
>> Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
>> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink
>>
>
>
> --
> Bruce Perens K6BP
> _______________________________________________
> Starlink mailing list
> Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink
>

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Re: [Starlink] Hitting an atira asteroid with a spacex starship?

[Dave Collier-Brown]

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I recommend sticking a long piece of conductor to the satellite, rather than banging on it with spaceships (;-))

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Z-H-Zhu/publication/251422339_Deorbiting_Dynamics_of_Electrodynamic_Tether/links/5cd4446b299bf14d95849bc3/Deorbiting-Dynamics-of-Electrodynamic-Tether.pdf

(From York, one of my local universities)

As for the starship, it should treat asteroids like mines, and assume someone is trying to "sink" them.

--dave

On 11/3/22 13:37, Bruce Perens via Starlink wrote:
If you own a 50 ton spaceship, please do not intentionally hit any asteroids or other objects with it. What you get is smaller objects heading in different directions at different velocities, none of which are all that predictable, and in total more danger to objects in space than before and still significant danger to ground objects. What you want is to turn it harmless. This is done by gently attaching to it and then giving it a controlled push.

I've been curious about what one could do over time just using the pressure of light from the ground, or enough light to gassify material to add delta V, however high power devices for this would also be effective weapons.

    Thanks

    Bruce

On Thu, Nov 3, 2022 at 5:28 PM Dave Taht via Starlink <starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net<mailto:starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net>> wrote:
So, what would happen if we hit one of these (3 new ones discovered
yesterday) with 50tons of starship, at 15 klicks per second? [1]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atira_asteroid

the three new ones, discovered and announced a day or three back:

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/three-near-earth-asteroids-were-hiding-in-the-suns-glare-180981055/

(Atira class are rocks within earth orbit. They are very hard to see,
probably overly baked (low on volatiles), and get bright sun all the
time)

[1] I'm very inspired by DART, but afraid to do the math for this
tonnage and speed. (anyone? there's a LOT of zeroes... ) I have
project ploughshare on my mind, except kinetic, and it's less
deflection on my mind than reducing a rubble pile to rubble,
identifying the good pieces, and bringing them back.



--
This song goes out to all the folk that thought Stadia would work:
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/dtaht_the-mushroom-song-activity-6981366665607352320-FXtz
Dave Täht CEO, TekLibre, LLC
_______________________________________________
Starlink mailing list
Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net<mailto:Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net>
https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink


--
Bruce Perens K6BP



_______________________________________________
Starlink mailing list
Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net<mailto:Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net>
https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink


--
David Collier-Brown,         | Always do right. This will gratify
System Programmer and Author | some people and astonish the rest
dave.collier-brown@indexexchange.com<mailto:dave.collier-brown@indexexchange.com> |              -- Mark Twain


CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER : This telecommunication, including any and all attachments, contains confidential information intended only for the person(s) to whom it is addressed. Any dissemination, distribution, copying or disclosure is strictly prohibited and is not a waiver of confidentiality. If you have received this telecommunication in error, please notify the sender immediately by return electronic mail and delete the message from your inbox and deleted items folders. This telecommunication does not constitute an express or implied agreement to conduct transactions by electronic means, nor does it constitute a contract offer, a contract amendment or an acceptance of a contract offer. Contract terms contained in this telecommunication are subject to legal review and the completion of formal documentation and are not binding until same is confirmed in writing and has been signed by an authorized signatory.

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Re: [Starlink] Hitting an atira asteroid with a spacex starship?

[Dave Collier-Brown]

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s/satellite/asteroid/ --dave

On 11/3/22 14:11, Dave Collier-Brown via Starlink wrote:
>
> I recommend sticking a long piece of conductor to the satellite, 
> rather than banging on it with spaceships (;-))
>
> https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Z-H-Zhu/publication/251422339_Deorbiting_Dynamics_of_Electrodynamic_Tether/links/5cd4446b299bf14d95849bc3/Deorbiting-Dynamics-of-Electrodynamic-Tether.pdf 
>
>
> (From York, one of my local universities)
>
> As for the starship, it should treat asteroids like mines, and assume 
> someone is trying to "sink" them.
>
> --dave
>
> On 11/3/22 13:37, Bruce Perens via Starlink wrote:
>> If you own a 50 ton spaceship, please do not intentionally hit any 
>> asteroids or other objects with it. What you get is smaller objects 
>> heading in different directions at different velocities, none of 
>> which are all that predictable, and in total more danger to objects 
>> in space than before and still significant danger to ground objects. 
>> What you want is to turn it harmless. This is done by gently 
>> attaching to it and then giving it a controlled push.
>>
>> I've been curious about what one could do over time just using the 
>> pressure of light from the ground, or enough light to 
>> gassify material to add delta V, however high power devices for this 
>> would also be effective weapons.
>>
>>     Thanks
>>
>>     Bruce
>>
>> On Thu, Nov 3, 2022 at 5:28 PM Dave Taht via Starlink 
>> <starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:
>>
>>     So, what would happen if we hit one of these (3 new ones discovered
>>     yesterday) with 50tons of starship, at 15 klicks per second? [1]
>>
>>     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atira_asteroid
>>
>>     the three new ones, discovered and announced a day or three back:
>>
>>     https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/three-near-earth-asteroids-were-hiding-in-the-suns-glare-180981055/
>>
>>     (Atira class are rocks within earth orbit. They are very hard to see,
>>     probably overly baked (low on volatiles), and get bright sun all the
>>     time)
>>
>>     [1] I'm very inspired by DART, but afraid to do the math for this
>>     tonnage and speed. (anyone? there's a LOT of zeroes... ) I have
>>     project ploughshare on my mind, except kinetic, and it's less
>>     deflection on my mind than reducing a rubble pile to rubble,
>>     identifying the good pieces, and bringing them back.
>>
>>
>>
>>     -- 
>>     This song goes out to all the folk that thought Stadia would work:
>>     https://www.linkedin.com/posts/dtaht_the-mushroom-song-activity-6981366665607352320-FXtz
>>     Dave Täht CEO, TekLibre, LLC
>>     _______________________________________________
>>     Starlink mailing list
>>     Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
>>     https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink
>>
>>
>>
>> -- 
>> Bruce Perens K6BP
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> Starlink mailing list
>> Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
>> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink
> -- 
> David Collier-Brown,         | Always do right. This will gratify
> System Programmer and Author | some people and astonish the rest
> dave.collier-brown@indexexchange.com  |              -- Mark Twain
>
> */CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER/*/ : This telecommunication, 
> including any and all attachments, contains confidential information 
> intended only for the person(s) to whom it is addressed. Any 
> dissemination, distribution, copying or disclosure is strictly 
> prohibited and is not a waiver of confidentiality. If you have 
> received this telecommunication in error, please notify the sender 
> immediately by return electronic mail and delete the message from your 
> inbox and deleted items folders. This telecommunication does not 
> constitute an express or implied agreement to conduct transactions by 
> electronic means, nor does it constitute a contract offer, a contract 
> amendment or an acceptance of a contract offer. Contract terms 
> contained in this telecommunication are subject to legal review and 
> the completion of formal documentation and are not binding until same 
> is confirmed in writing and has been signed by an authorized signatory./
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> Starlink mailing list
> Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink

-- 
David Collier-Brown,         | Always do right. This will gratify
System Programmer and Author | some people and astonish the rest
dave.collier-brown@indexexchange.com  |              -- Mark Twain

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Re: [Starlink] Hitting an atira asteroid with a spacex starship?

[Bruce Perens]

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On Thu, Nov 3, 2022 at 5:52 PM Dave Taht <dave.taht@gmail.com> wrote:

> Space is a big place, and I'm pretty sure the orbit, impact, and debris
> could be tracked.
>

Actually, no. The Space Shuttle got a very concerning bulls-eye in its
front cockpit window a few decades ago from a tiny paint chip. The speed of
two objects in counter-rotating orbits when they hit imparts a  truly large
amount of energy. And there are now so many such things that there is a
significant risk to suited astronauts on EVAs.

NORAD will not actually tell us how small an object it can track, nor how
many, this being something potentially of interest to enemies. The
Satellite Catalog that they publish covers objects of 10 cm diameter and
larger, a 1U PocketQube satellite is 5x5x5 cm plus antennas that bring it
to 10 cm, and the early ephemerides published by NORAD for such objects can
be inaccurate. We aren't allowed to launch anything smaller.

We also are now required to provide a position-changing ability to avoid
collisions, and active re-entry at the end of the life of a satellite. This
is mainly about the potential for Kessler Syndrome.

The 60 years of thinking that orbital space is so big that we don't have to
concern ourselves with debris are definitely over.

What would you do with a starship that after launch, due to lost tiles, or
> other problems is certain to burn up on re-entry? Why not test getting out
> of orbit?
>

Put it somewhere that you can use the habitable volume. Starship
potentially has a larger habitable volume than ISS. That is *without*
converting the tanks.

Otherwise, if you have the delta-V to get there, there is a junkyard orbit
above geosynchronous. Things will stay there for a really long time. The
other option is a controlled re-entry with a known termination in the
middle of an ocean.

China drops entire stages on farmers fields and rural roads in their own
country quite often, but this is not thought well of by others.

That takes all the fun out of it. Impact is so much easier. Our knowledge
> of the solar system is only skin deep.
>

People are even starting to get annoyed about stuff that hits the moon,
although this doesn't create orbital debris unless the energy is really
huge.

    Thanks

    Bruce

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Re: [Starlink] Hitting an atira asteroid with a spacex starship?

[Ulrich Speidel]

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Space is a big place indeed. Couple of points:

  * Kessler syndrome requires objects after a collision to remain (at
    least temporarily) in a sustainable orbit around Earth. That is, any
    fragments of a collision must continue to travel post collision with
    a velocity and at a trajectory that allows them to stay in an orbit
    around Earth of sorts. It's therefore almost a prerequisite for
    Kessler syndrome that the objects participating in the collision be
    in an Earth orbit before the collision. If they aren't, then most of
    the fragments will either end up down here or somewhere of no
    consequence. By definition, asteroids aren't in Earth orbits.
  * Any mission to defend against an asteroid would likely require
    intervention by impact / attachment / etc. many millions of miles
    from Earth, not in low earth orbit as some of our contributors here
    seem to assume. By the time your asteroid has reached the heights
    where most of our satellites orbit, it'd be way too late. Asteroids
    of consequence are likely to have a mass orders of magnitude higher
    than anything we can send their way, so any mission would need to
    bank on making a small difference (by crash, persistent push, or
    ...) on the object's trajectory early enough to make sure it or its
    fragments give us a wide berth.

"Don't look up" is great cinema, but you're very unlikely to get any 
naked eye visual warning of an asteroid impact that would allow you to 
see your nemesis for any great length of time. Just ask the dinosaurs: 
They didn't have any mobile devices and social media to distract their 
attention, probably did look up now and then, and for all we know didn't 
see it coming either.

On 4/11/2022 4:48 pm, Bruce Perens via Starlink wrote:
>
>
> On Thu, Nov 3, 2022 at 5:52 PM Dave Taht <dave.taht@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>     Space is a big place, and I'm pretty sure the orbit, impact, and
>     debris could be tracked.
>
>
> Actually, no. The Space Shuttle got a very concerning bulls-eye in its 
> front cockpit window a few decades ago from a tiny paint chip. The 
> speed of two objects in counter-rotating orbits when they hit imparts 
> a  truly large amount of energy. And there are now so many such things 
> that there is a significant risk to suited astronauts on EVAs.
>
> NORAD will not actually tell us how small an object it can track, nor 
> how many, this being something potentially of interest to enemies. The 
> Satellite Catalog that they publish covers objects of 10 cm diameter 
> and larger, a 1U PocketQube satellite is 5x5x5 cm plus antennas that 
> bring it to 10 cm, and the early ephemerides published by NORAD for 
> such objects can be inaccurate. We aren't allowed to launch anything 
> smaller.
>
> We also are now required to provide a position-changing ability to 
> avoid collisions, and active re-entry at the end of the life of a 
> satellite. This is mainly about the potential for Kessler Syndrome.
>
> The 60 years of thinking that orbital space is so big that we don't 
> have to concern ourselves with debris are definitely over.
>
>     What would you do with a starship that after launch, due to lost
>     tiles, or other problems is certain to burn up on re-entry? Why
>     not test getting out of orbit?
>
>
> Put it somewhere that you can use the habitable volume. Starship 
> potentially has a larger habitable volume than ISS. That is /without/ 
> converting the tanks.
>
> Otherwise, if you have the delta-V to get there, there is a junkyard 
> orbit above geosynchronous. Things will stay there for a really long 
> time. The other option is a controlled re-entry with a known 
> termination in the middle of an ocean.
>
> China drops entire stages on farmers fields and rural roads in their 
> own country quite often, but this is not thought well of by others.
>
>     That takes all the fun out of it. Impact is so much easier. Our
>     knowledge of the solar system is only skin deep.
>
>
> People are even starting to get annoyed about stuff that hits the 
> moon, although this doesn't create orbital debris unless the energy is 
> really huge.
>
>     Thanks
>
>     Bruce
>
> _______________________________________________
> Starlink mailing list
> Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink
>
-- 
****************************************************************
Dr. Ulrich Speidel

School of Computer Science

Room 303S.594 (City Campus)

The University of Auckland
u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz  
http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/
****************************************************************



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