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Fri, 13 Aug 2021 04:51:09 +0000 To: David Lang References: <7AB190E6-A974-42A4-982F-5071CA45F31E@onholyground.com> <786faf6a-988d-ff29-42a6-44b508bf6625@cs.auckland.ac.nz> From: Ulrich Speidel Cc: starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net Message-ID: <6b1a43f0-7288-8814-06d2-08c270538d98@cs.auckland.ac.nz> Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2021 16:51:06 +1200 User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64; rv:78.0) Gecko/20100101 Thunderbird/78.13.0 In-Reply-To: X-ClientProxiedBy: SYBPR01CA0167.ausprd01.prod.outlook.com (2603:10c6:10:d::35) To SY4PR01MB6979.ausprd01.prod.outlook.com (2603:10c6:10:142::13) MIME-Version: 1.0 X-MS-Exchange-MessageSentRepresentingType: 1 Received: from [IPv6:2001:df0:0:2006:d451:d1b1:f7b6:a330] (2001:df0:0:2006:d451:d1b1:f7b6:a330) by SYBPR01CA0167.ausprd01.prod.outlook.com (2603:10c6:10:d::35) with Microsoft SMTP Server (version=TLS1_2, cipher=TLS_ECDHE_RSA_WITH_AES_256_GCM_SHA384) id 15.20.4415.14 via Frontend Transport; Fri, 13 Aug 2021 04:51:08 +0000 X-MS-PublicTrafficType: Email X-MS-Office365-Filtering-Correlation-Id: 6dff2306-8739-47ee-8f5e-08d95e15f73d X-MS-TrafficTypeDiagnostic: SYAPR01MB2384: X-MS-Exchange-Transport-Forked: True X-Microsoft-Antispam-PRVS: X-MS-Oob-TLC-OOBClassifiers: OLM:8273 X-MS-Exchange-SenderADCheck: 1 X-MS-Exchange-AntiSpam-Relay: 0 X-Microsoft-Antispam: BCL:0 X-Microsoft-Antispam-Message-Info: 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 X-Forefront-Antispam-Report: CIP:255.255.255.255; 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auth=pass smtp.auth=CAU17A13 smtp.mailfrom=ulrich@cs.auckland.ac.nz X-Mimecast-Spam-Score: 0 X-Mimecast-Originator: cs.auckland.ac.nz Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-7; format=flowed Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Language: en-US Subject: Re: [Starlink] speedtest.net takes a look at sat internet around the globe X-BeenThere: starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.20 Precedence: list List-Id: "Starlink has bufferbloat. Bad." List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2021 04:51:25 -0000 On 13/08/2021 1:54 pm, David Lang wrote: > On Fri, 13 Aug 2021, Ulrich Speidel wrote: > > > - If we reasonably assume that the capacity of a Starlink satellite=20 > needs to > > be shared between its users, then few users / satellite equates to a=20 > large > > share of the capacity. From Starlink's front page: "Starlink is=20 > available to > > a limited number of users per coverage area at this time." Guess=20 > what? What > > we see here may not last, but it's sure great for marketing. > > although as they launch more satellites and implement routing between=20 > satellites > this will also expand I would hope so, but that's a while off yet. > > > - Ever wondered why Starlink's bulk of beta users sits between=20 > 40-something > > and 50-something degrees of latitude? That's right, because that's=20 > where you > > get the largest concentration of satellites right now, which helps=20 > keep the > > number of users per satellite down. Elsewhere? Tough luck. > > the problem is having satellties overhead for continuous coverage.=20 > This happened > first a higher latitudes. I'm in the Los Angles area and according to=20 > a check I > did a couple weeks ago, there are still 15-75min/day that I would not=20 > have any > satellites available to use.=20 Indeed, but for most people, it's not just that you need to be able to=20 see a satellite. You need to be in range of a satellite that can also=20 see a gateway, and the probability of your Dishy finding one that is=20 meeting this criterion goes up with the number of satellites you can see=20 and with your proximity to a gateway. As you do have two gateways in the=20 Los Angeles area, this condition will be met for most satellites you can=20 see, but with often hundreds of miles between gateways even in the=20 continental US, the unavailability periods can be significantly larger=20 for others at your latitude. > They have launched enough satellites for global > coverage, but the last several batches are still climbing to their=20 > final orbit > (it takes a couple months post-launch to do this) As for overhead coverage, yes, as for connectivity, no - for lack of=20 interconnects in the vast majority of the present fleet. > > > bzz, your local ISP needs to transport the data to each customer=20 > individually, > multicast is not a functional thing on the Internet Nobody is talking about multicasting here! I'm talking about content=20 delivery networks, and they're very much a functional thing, and when=20 they break, people will claim that "the Internet is down", as happened a=20 few times over the last few months. Much of the conventional satellite Internet into remote places (and that=20 can mean entire countries) used to be backhaul to a local ISP, who would=20 then distribute via WiFi, DSL, or whatever. When such ISPs are able to=20 host CDN servers in their remote location data centre, then the cat=20 video served by the CDN will travel across the sat link once and will be=20 cached at the local CDN for multiple downloads by local users. Direct-to-site operators such as Starlink (and yes I realise Hughes and=20 Viasat do this, too, albeit via GEO) have to deliver the cat video to=20 each end user through the bottleneck resource satellite. > And with SpaceX putting ground stations on the roofs of major datacenters > (google and others), they will have as good or better connections than=20 > your > local ISP. > > > But big numbers always look great, don't they? > > you seem to be wnting to compare starlink to gig fiber to the home or=20 > something > like that. Well, I'm comparing it to two quite disparate things, really, so let's=20 declare: 1) Gig fibre to the home indeed (which you can get here in Auckland, NZ,=20 at least in most suburbs, see=20 https://comcom.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0027/252288/MBNZ-Summer-Repor= t-2021-13-April-2021.pdf),=20 connected to the rest of the world by shared submarine fibre capacity=20 roughly equivalent to Starlink's entire current global system capacity=20 (including satellites over remote regions far away from gateways).=20 That's a couple of dozen Tb/s and us five million plus our 20 million=20 Aussie mates across the ditch like have required regular capacity=20 upgrades in recent years, suggesting that we manage to work it pretty=20 well. I'll see whether I can provide some speedtest.net data FYI in a=20 later post. 2) The 4000 ms all up RTT GEO satellite connection that my incoming PhD=20 student in Tarawa, Kiribati, is on. He'd love your sister's=20 connectivity. There are a lot of islands like this in the Pacific, and=20 conditions differ. Many use trunk-to-ISP satellite services, sometimes=20 to competing ISPs, sometimes to a monopoly ISP. Some use GEO, some use=20 O3b MEO. Some now use direct-to-site Kacific HTS GEO. Some may be within=20 reach of Starlink, many won't be, and in some cases, the local regulator=20 forbids competition to the monopoly telco and won't allow direct-to-site=20 services. And in some places there's hope for change and in others there=20 are lock-in contracts running for years into the future. > > My sister is the perfect example of their real target. Before I got her > Starlink, she had the choice between dialup (with toll charges), a=20 > wireless ISP > at symmetrical 2Mb/s, or cellular based service (with a tall mast to=20 > hold the > cell antenna) > > starlink isn't targeted at urban areas, but if you look at population=20 > density > maps, the vast majority of the country isn't urban, and while the=20 > percentage of > population isn't as lopsided, that's still a LOT of people Quite aware of this. There's a nice write-up here of the infrastructural=20 problems you face in the US and how Starlink is really designed for that=20 market=20 https://www.theverge.com/22435030/starlink-satellite-internet-spacex-review= =20 =20 > > I'm in the Los Angeles suburbs and up until the time that spectrum cable > upgraded their system a couple years ago, the best I could get (short of > $thousands to run new wires to my house) was 10M/2M dsl. I'm going to get > starlink as a backup, and as a portable setup that I can take when=20 > traveling > (camping, search and rescue bases, etc) I was on DSL until about 2-3 years ago. The then government here decided=20 that connectivity pretty much everywhere was a strategic investment=20 must-have. They'd already split the old monopoly post office telco into=20 a network and a retail arm, and invited competition. They then compelled=20 (and subsidised) the network company to roll out fibre to wherever this=20 was possible - for free - and make it available to ISPs for a fee set by=20 the regulator. So they literally came door knocking to connect us up, at=20 zero cost (except time to make sure "a foot deep" meant more than=20 brushing the leaves aside). At the end of 2022, 87% of New Zealanders=20 will have fibre access, two years ahead of target. --=20 **************************************************************** Dr. Ulrich Speidel School of Computer Science Room 303S.594 (City Campus) Ph: (+64-9)-373-7599 ext. 85282 The University of Auckland ulrich@cs.auckland.ac.nz http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/ ****************************************************************