Re: [Starlink] 69,000 Users

[Dave Taht <davet@teklibre.net>]

While I agree that big money is in backhaul...

My take on how to turn a per-user profit was easy. Just increase the user density and user side always offer the lowest latency possible from LEO. 

I would hate to be quoted on this out of context, but 50Mbit ought to be enough for everyone. Web traffic in particular is almost entirely bound by RTT [1]. There’s a lot of studies showing this. I keep looking for the key google one with no luck….

You can’t use up 50Mbit in your typical 3sec web page load before it ends. 

Designing a network for speedtest is silly. (admittedly convincing the world that speedtest is the worlds most misleading benchmark is hard) 

Designing a new network for real applications like voip, videoconferencing, email, chat, and 4k video streaming is much easier if you always retain consistently low latency.

Many the headaches and hassle in scheduling a bunch of spot beams go away if you just target real applications, with good queue management, and a deep knowledge of how our network protocols actually work. 

There’s plenty that could be done at the l2 layer to increase density also.  "Music is the space between the notes” - said Debussy

[1] With *really good queue management* at the head end, and an e2e approach to improving the browsers, we (teklibre) long ago proved how to improve PLT enormously at large RTTs.

> On Jun 30, 2021, at 12:30 AM, David Lang <david@lang.hm> wrote:
> 
> they have FCC approval for 1m customer terminals in the US, and have asked to increase that due to demonstrated demand (to something like 5m terminals)
> 
> 500k customers is not nearly the break-even point, but that's still a lot of equipment deployed and supported.
> 
> I suspect that they will be more limited by the number of stations they can build than the interest from customers. As user density increases, they will need to launch more satellites, but as Starship comes online, the cost to do so will drop significantly.
> 
> the orbital life of a satellite may end up being a bit better than you think, they will de-orbit by themselves after about 5 years, but they do have thrusters that they can use to raise their orbits to extend their lives if they don't need the fuel for collision avoidance.
> 
> David Lang
> 
> On Wed, 30 Jun 2021, Mike Puchol wrote:
> 
>> Date: Wed, 30 Jun 2021 09:23:02 +0200
>> From: Mike Puchol <mike@starlink.sx>
>> To: David Lang <david@lang.hm>, Dave Taht <dave.taht@gmail.com>
>> Cc: starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
>> Subject: Re: [Starlink] 69,000 Users
>> 500k customers is ~$600m in gross revenue per year. Assuming no operating costs, takes, etc., $10bn takes ~16 years to pay back. They need to add way more customers onto that investment.
>> 
>> In traditional land-based telcos, it is frequent to split the backbone and customer sides, having a “TowerCo” with all the expensive infrastructure, that has a payback period of 25 years, and “CustomerCo” where payback needs to be 12-18 months. In Starlink’s case, unless they cannot increase satellite lifespan, and/or make them very cheap, the payback period is fixed at 5 years. For gateways and ground infrastructure, you can stretch it to compensate, but you cannot justify, say, a 50 year payback.
>> 
>> IMHO the direct to customer side will end up being residual, high price for those who really need it, and their revenue will come from backhauling mobile and FTTH operators, airlines, cruises, and the military.
>> 
>> Best,
>> 
>> Mike
>> On Jun 30, 2021, 7:48 AM +0200, Dave Taht <dave.taht@gmail.com>, wrote:
>>> On Tue, Jun 29, 2021 at 10:24 PM David Lang <david@lang.hm> wrote:
>>>> 
>>>> I think that was 69k simultanious users
>>>> 
>>>> dishy production cost is currently down to ~$1k/unit (I've heard that it was
>>>> ~$3k/unit for the first ones)
>>> 
>>> Keep hoping they will add good, nay, great!! queue management.
>>> Software costs nothing in qty.
>>> 
>>>> But the long term upside if they can pull it off is a license to print money,
>>>> I've seen speculation that it's on the order of 30B/year when fully built
>>> 
>>> I think that's kind of doable.
>>> 
>>> It's too bad all those users are behind a CGN and cannot talk to each
>>> other, routing calls at least from one village to another would stay
>>> on the same sat.
>>> 
>>>> 
>>>> David Lang
>>>> 
>>>> On Tue, 29 Jun 2021, Daniel AJ Sokolov wrote:
>>>> 
>>>>> Date: Tue, 29 Jun 2021 19:00:32 -0700
>>>>> From: Daniel AJ Sokolov <daniel@sokolov.eu.org>
>>>>> To: starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
>>>>> Subject: [Starlink] 69,000 Users
>>>>> 
>>>>> Starlink currently has 69,000 User, according to what Elon Musk said
>>>>> today at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona.
>>>>> 
>>>>> In a year, he wants to have 500,000 users.
>>>>> 
>>>>> He expects having to invest 25 to 30 billion US-Dollars to fully build
>>>>> Starlink.
>>>>> 
>>>>> Each Dishy costs Starlink about double the current purchase price.
>>>>> However, they want to reduce the production cost to "a few hundred
>>>>> dollars" - which is why they are working on their own factory in Texas.
>>>>> 
>>>>> FYI
>>>>> Daniel
>>>>> 
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>>> 
>>> --
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>>> Dave Täht CTO, TekLibre, LLC
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