From mboxrd@z Thu Jan 1 00:00:00 1970 Return-Path: Received: from mail.taht.net (mail.taht.net [176.58.107.8]) (using TLSv1.2 with cipher AECDH-AES256-SHA (256/256 bits)) (No client certificate requested) by lists.bufferbloat.net (Postfix) with ESMTPS id 531453CB35 for ; Wed, 30 Jun 2021 03:51:08 -0400 (EDT) Received: from smtpclient.apple (c-73-241-93-6.hsd1.ca.comcast.net [73.241.93.6]) (using TLSv1.2 with cipher ECDHE-RSA-AES256-GCM-SHA384 (256/256 bits)) (No client certificate requested) by mail.taht.net (Postfix) with ESMTPSA id CC02122C0D; Wed, 30 Jun 2021 07:51:06 +0000 (UTC) Content-Type: text/plain; charset=utf-8 Mime-Version: 1.0 (Mac OS X Mail 14.0 \(3654.80.0.2.43\)) From: Dave Taht In-Reply-To: Date: Wed, 30 Jun 2021 00:51:04 -0700 Cc: Mike Puchol , starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Message-Id: <7DFC1294-FC14-44DF-B28B-FFB89E0BDF4E@teklibre.net> References: <85542036-9ff8-75d2-438e-c86cc0c105d8@sokolov.eu.org> To: David Lang X-Mailer: Apple Mail (2.3654.80.0.2.43) Subject: Re: [Starlink] 69,000 Users X-BeenThere: starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.20 Precedence: list List-Id: "Starlink has bufferbloat. Bad." List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 30 Jun 2021 07:51:08 -0000 While I agree that big money is in backhaul... My take on how to turn a per-user profit was easy. Just increase the = user density and user side always offer the lowest latency possible from = LEO.=20 I would hate to be quoted on this out of context, but 50Mbit ought to be = enough for everyone. Web traffic in particular is almost entirely bound = by RTT [1]. There=E2=80=99s a lot of studies showing this. I keep = looking for the key google one with no luck=E2=80=A6. You can=E2=80=99t use up 50Mbit in your typical 3sec web page load = before it ends.=20 Designing a network for speedtest is silly. (admittedly convincing the = world that speedtest is the worlds most misleading benchmark is hard)=20 Designing a new network for real applications like voip, = videoconferencing, email, chat, and 4k video streaming is much easier if = you always retain consistently low latency. Many the headaches and hassle in scheduling a bunch of spot beams go = away if you just target real applications, with good queue management, = and a deep knowledge of how our network protocols actually work.=20 There=E2=80=99s plenty that could be done at the l2 layer to increase = density also. "Music is the space between the notes=E2=80=9D - said = Debussy [1] With *really good queue management* at the head end, and an e2e = approach to improving the browsers, we (teklibre) long ago proved how to = improve PLT enormously at large RTTs. > On Jun 30, 2021, at 12:30 AM, David Lang wrote: >=20 > they have FCC approval for 1m customer terminals in the US, and have = asked to increase that due to demonstrated demand (to something like 5m = terminals) >=20 > 500k customers is not nearly the break-even point, but that's still a = lot of equipment deployed and supported. >=20 > I suspect that they will be more limited by the number of stations = they can build than the interest from customers. As user density = increases, they will need to launch more satellites, but as Starship = comes online, the cost to do so will drop significantly. >=20 > the orbital life of a satellite may end up being a bit better than you = think, they will de-orbit by themselves after about 5 years, but they do = have thrusters that they can use to raise their orbits to extend their = lives if they don't need the fuel for collision avoidance. >=20 > David Lang >=20 > On Wed, 30 Jun 2021, Mike Puchol wrote: >=20 >> Date: Wed, 30 Jun 2021 09:23:02 +0200 >> From: Mike Puchol >> To: David Lang , Dave Taht >> Cc: starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net >> Subject: Re: [Starlink] 69,000 Users >> 500k customers is ~$600m in gross revenue per year. Assuming no = operating costs, takes, etc., $10bn takes ~16 years to pay back. They = need to add way more customers onto that investment. >>=20 >> In traditional land-based telcos, it is frequent to split the = backbone and customer sides, having a =E2=80=9CTowerCo=E2=80=9D with all = the expensive infrastructure, that has a payback period of 25 years, and = =E2=80=9CCustomerCo=E2=80=9D where payback needs to be 12-18 months. In = Starlink=E2=80=99s case, unless they cannot increase satellite lifespan, = and/or make them very cheap, the payback period is fixed at 5 years. For = gateways and ground infrastructure, you can stretch it to compensate, = but you cannot justify, say, a 50 year payback. >>=20 >> IMHO the direct to customer side will end up being residual, high = price for those who really need it, and their revenue will come from = backhauling mobile and FTTH operators, airlines, cruises, and the = military. >>=20 >> Best, >>=20 >> Mike >> On Jun 30, 2021, 7:48 AM +0200, Dave Taht , = wrote: >>> On Tue, Jun 29, 2021 at 10:24 PM David Lang wrote: >>>>=20 >>>> I think that was 69k simultanious users >>>>=20 >>>> dishy production cost is currently down to ~$1k/unit (I've heard = that it was >>>> ~$3k/unit for the first ones) >>>=20 >>> Keep hoping they will add good, nay, great!! queue management. >>> Software costs nothing in qty. >>>=20 >>>> But the long term upside if they can pull it off is a license to = print money, >>>> I've seen speculation that it's on the order of 30B/year when fully = built >>>=20 >>> I think that's kind of doable. >>>=20 >>> It's too bad all those users are behind a CGN and cannot talk to = each >>> other, routing calls at least from one village to another would stay >>> on the same sat. >>>=20 >>>>=20 >>>> David Lang >>>>=20 >>>> On Tue, 29 Jun 2021, Daniel AJ Sokolov wrote: >>>>=20 >>>>> Date: Tue, 29 Jun 2021 19:00:32 -0700 >>>>> From: Daniel AJ Sokolov >>>>> To: starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net >>>>> Subject: [Starlink] 69,000 Users >>>>>=20 >>>>> Starlink currently has 69,000 User, according to what Elon Musk = said >>>>> today at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona. >>>>>=20 >>>>> In a year, he wants to have 500,000 users. >>>>>=20 >>>>> He expects having to invest 25 to 30 billion US-Dollars to fully = build >>>>> Starlink. >>>>>=20 >>>>> Each Dishy costs Starlink about double the current purchase price. >>>>> However, they want to reduce the production cost to "a few hundred >>>>> dollars" - which is why they are working on their own factory in = Texas. >>>>>=20 >>>>> FYI >>>>> Daniel >>>>>=20 >>>>> _______________________________________________ >>>>> Starlink mailing list >>>>> Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net >>>>> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink >>>>>=20 >>>> _______________________________________________ >>>> Starlink mailing list >>>> Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net >>>> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink >>>=20 >>>=20 >>>=20 >>> -- >>> Latest Podcast: >>> = https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6791014284936785920/ >>>=20 >>> Dave T=C3=A4ht CTO, TekLibre, LLC >>> _______________________________________________ >>> Starlink mailing list >>> Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net >>> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink > _______________________________________________ > Starlink mailing list > Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net > https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink