Re: [Starlink] APNIC56 last week

[Noel Butler <noel.butler@ausics.net>]

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Hi Vint,

On 23/09/2023 11:47, Vint Cerf wrote:

> Noel, IPv4 is only managing to work because it is NATted - going to 
> IPv6 let's us get back to point-to-point in either direction including 
> rendezvous.
> The present IPv4 situation is NOT good - people are paying $35-50 per 
> IPv4 address to acquire or even to lease them. For all practical 
> purposes, IPv4 has run out.
> 
> vint

Oh I agree it's not a good situation, but my point was it's still most 
dominant 30 years after they claimed we had about 5 years, it's like the 
little boy who cried wolf, if they held off the hysterics until it was 
proved imminent, I've no doubt the update would be greater and taken 
more seriously (I've used IPv6 for over 10 years myself), but the global 
low uptake is what causes ISP's and Telco's to use CGNAT, its free and 
plentiful, so it still wont be laid to rest for a while yet.

IPv6 is only 4% of traffic that hits my Mail Servers, it's less than 1% 
on my Web servers.

Just like TCP, it wont be going anywhere, not quietly, and if it were 
to, likely be long after I'm gone, QUIC seems an interesting project, 
and I guess only the decades ahead of us will tell of it becomes a 
raging success.

Cheers

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