* Re: [Starlink] Starlink lost over 200 satellites in two months – tracker data
2023-10-02 10:15 ` Alexandre Petrescu
@ 2023-10-02 10:39 ` Ulrich Speidel
2023-10-02 12:27 ` Michael Richardson
2023-10-02 20:08 ` David Lang
1 sibling, 1 reply; 7+ messages in thread
From: Ulrich Speidel @ 2023-10-02 10:39 UTC (permalink / raw)
To: starlink
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Yes. The atmosphere doesn't really "end" at a certain altitude, it just
gets thinner and thinner, which eventually means that the drag on
spacecraft caused by the remaining air particles up there gets so low
that the spacecraft can orbit for extended periods of time. But the drag
isn't zero, and Low Earth Orbit sateIlites such as the Starlink birds
suffer from some drag. The way to counteract that would normally be
re-acceleration via small booster engines, but for these to work in
space, you need fuel aboard the satellite, which will eventually run
out. As LEOs move faster in denser atmosphere than MEOs and GEOs, that
puts significant downward pressure on their lifetime (unless, like in
the case of the ISS, you can refuel).
In the case of Starlink, there is also the minor issue that their
initial constellation that they started commercial ops with isn't
ISL-capable, so there may be an incentive here to retire some satellites
early, perhaps, and fill their orbital slots with more capable birds.
The SpaceX folk on this list might wish to comment?
On 2/10/2023 11:15 pm, Alexandre Petrescu via Starlink wrote:
> One can see the starlink 're-entries' on some re-entry public databases.
>
> On this one from aerospace.org, one can see starlink re-entries
> yesterday, and also 29 sept., 27 sept., etc.
>
> https://aerospace.org/reentries/grid
> <https://aerospace.org/reentries/grid>
>
> It seems to me - a non expert - that starlink regularly re-enters its
> sats and puts new ones in orbit. Maybe a starlink sat has a lifetime of
> 2-3 years.
>
> > Object
> >
> <https://aerospace.org/reentries/grid?field_reentry_sighting_value=All&format_select=table&reentry_timezone_selector=UTC&order=title&sort=asc
> <https://aerospace.org/reentries/grid?field_reentry_sighting_value=All&format_select=table&reentry_timezone_selector=UTC&order=title&sort=asc>>
>
> > Mission
> >
> <https://aerospace.org/reentries/grid?field_reentry_sighting_value=All&format_select=table&reentry_timezone_selector=UTC&order=field_mission&sort=asc
> <https://aerospace.org/reentries/grid?field_reentry_sighting_value=All&format_select=table&reentry_timezone_selector=UTC&order=field_mission&sort=asc>>
>
> > Reentry Type
> >
> <https://aerospace.org/reentries/grid?field_reentry_sighting_value=All&format_select=table&reentry_timezone_selector=UTC&order=field_reentry_type&sort=asc
> <https://aerospace.org/reentries/grid?field_reentry_sighting_value=All&format_select=table&reentry_timezone_selector=UTC&order=field_reentry_type&sort=asc>>
>
> > Launched
> >
> <https://aerospace.org/reentries/grid?field_reentry_sighting_value=All&format_select=table&reentry_timezone_selector=UTC&order=field_launched&sort=asc
> <https://aerospace.org/reentries/grid?field_reentry_sighting_value=All&format_select=table&reentry_timezone_selector=UTC&order=field_launched&sort=asc>>
>
> > Predicted Reentry Time
> >
> <https://aerospace.org/reentries/grid?field_reentry_sighting_value=All&format_select=table&reentry_timezone_selector=UTC&order=field_predicted_reentry_time&sort=desc
> <https://aerospace.org/reentries/grid?field_reentry_sighting_value=All&format_select=table&reentry_timezone_selector=UTC&order=field_predicted_reentry_time&sort=desc>>
>
> >
> > STARLINK-1868 (ID 47154) <https://aerospace.org/reentries/47154
> <https://aerospace.org/reentries/47154>>
>
> > Launch L15 Payload Nov 25, 2020 Oct 01, 2023 15:39:12 ± 16 hours
> > IUS R/B(1) (ID 19884) <https://aerospace.org/reentries/19884
> <https://aerospace.org/reentries/19884>>
> STS
> > 29/TDRS 4 Rocket Body Mar 13, 1989 Sep 30, 2023 12:32:28 ± 7 hours
> > STARLINK-1074 (ID 44957) <https://aerospace.org/reentries/44957
> <https://aerospace.org/reentries/44957>>
>
> > Launch L2 Payload Jan 07, 2020 Sep 29, 2023 20:53:28 ± 3 hours
> > STARLINK-5596 (ID 55476) <https://aerospace.org/reentries/55476
> <https://aerospace.org/reentries/55476>>
>
> > Launch Group 5-3 Payload Feb 02, 2023 Sep 27, 2023 17:41:11 ± 6 hours
> > STARLINK-2345 (ID 47886) <https://aerospace.org/reentries/47886
> <https://aerospace.org/reentries/47886>>
>
> > Launch L21 Payload Mar 14, 2021 Sep 27, 2023 15:58:50 ± 1 hour
> > COSMOS 1124 (ID 11509) <https://aerospace.org/reentries/11509
> <https://aerospace.org/reentries/11509>>
> COSMOS
> > 1124 Payload Aug 28, 1979 Sep 27, 2023 00:23:01 ± 1 hour
> > CERES-1 R/B (ID 57796) <https://aerospace.org/reentries/57796
> <https://aerospace.org/reentries/57796>>
> TIANQI
> > 21-24 Rocket Body Sep 05, 2023 Sep 25, 2023 06:59:01 ± 1 hour
> > STARLINK-2212 (ID 47779) <https://aerospace.org/reentries/47779
> <https://aerospace.org/reentries/47779>>
>
> > Launch L17 Payload Mar 04, 2021 Sep 25, 2023 03:11:43 ± 1 hour
> > STARLINK-1419 (ID 45694) <https://aerospace.org/reentries/45694
> <https://aerospace.org/reentries/45694>>
>
> > Launch L7 Payload Jun 04, 2020 Sep 24, 2023 11:01:39 ± 10 hours
> > STARLINK-1026 (ID 44731) <https://aerospace.org/reentries/44731
> <https://aerospace.org/reentries/44731>>
>
> > Launch L1 Payload Nov 11, 2019 Sep 22, 2023 22:21:15 ± 3 hours
> > ELECTRON KICK STAGE R/B (ID 55328)
> > <https://aerospace.org/reentries/46929
> <https://aerospace.org/reentries/46929>>
> SPACEBEE Rocket Body Nov
> > 20, 2020 Sep 21, 2023 12:57:34 ± 1 hour
> > SL-4 R/B (ID 57863) <https://aerospace.org/reentries/57863
> <https://aerospace.org/reentries/57863>>
> SOYUZ
> > MS-24 Rocket Body Sep 15, 2023 Sep 18, 2023 04:58:16 ± 1 hour
> > DELTA 2 R/B(2) (PAM-D) (ID 35754)
> > <https://aerospace.org/reentries/35754
> <https://aerospace.org/reentries/35754>>
> USA-206 (GPS IIRM-8) Rocket
> > Body Aug 17, 2009 Sep 18, 2023 04:37:26 ± 1 hour
> > KSLV-1 R/B (ID 39069) <https://aerospace.org/reentries/39069
> <https://aerospace.org/reentries/39069>>
>
> > STSAT-2C Rocket Body Jan 30, 2013 Sep 16, 2023 01:21:47 ± 1 hour
> > ELECTRON R/B (ID 44635) <https://aerospace.org/reentries/44635
> <https://aerospace.org/reentries/44635>>
>
> > Palisade Rocket Body Oct 17, 2019 Sep 13, 2023 22:07:51 ± 1 hour
> > STARLINK-30042 (ID 55702) <https://aerospace.org/reentries/55702
> <https://aerospace.org/reentries/55702>>
>
> > Starlink Group 6-1 Payload Feb 27, 2023 Sep 13, 2023 21:07:58 ± 3
> > hours
> >
>
> Alex
>
> Le 20/09/2023 à 00:55, Dave Taht via Starlink a écrit :
> > The original poster of that to twitter walks it back to 54 since the
> > beginning of the year.
> >
> > On Tue, Sep 19, 2023 at 7:48 AM the keyboard of geoff goodfellow via
> > Starlink <starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:
> >
> > ➔➔https://cybernews.com/news/starlink-lost-200-satellites/
> <https://cybernews.com/news/starlink-lost-200-satellites>
> >
> > --
> > Geoff.Goodfellow@iconia.com
> > living as The Truth is True
> >
> > _______________________________________________
> > Starlink mailing list
> > Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
> > https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink
> <https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink>
> >
> >
> >
> > --
> > Oct 30:
> > https://netdevconf.info/0x17/news/the-maestro-and-the-music-bof.html
> <https://netdevconf.info/0x17/news/the-maestro-and-the-music-bof.html>
> > Dave Täht CSO, LibreQos
> >
> > _______________________________________________
> > Starlink mailing list
> > Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
> > https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink
> <https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink>
> _______________________________________________
> Starlink mailing list
> Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink
> <https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink>
--
****************************************************************
Dr. Ulrich Speidel
School of Computer Science
Room 303S.594 (City Campus)
The University of Auckland
u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz
http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/
****************************************************************
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^ permalink raw reply [flat|nested] 7+ messages in thread
* Re: [Starlink] Starlink lost over 200 satellites in two months – tracker data
2023-10-02 10:39 ` Ulrich Speidel
@ 2023-10-02 12:27 ` Michael Richardson
2023-10-02 13:48 ` Alexandre Petrescu
0 siblings, 1 reply; 7+ messages in thread
From: Michael Richardson @ 2023-10-02 12:27 UTC (permalink / raw)
To: Ulrich Speidel, starlink
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Ulrich Speidel via Starlink <starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:
> In the case of Starlink, there is also the minor issue that their initial
> constellation that they started commercial ops with isn't ISL-capable, so
> there may be an incentive here to retire some satellites early, perhaps, and
> fill their orbital slots with more capable birds.
I think that it falls into the fail-early dot-com mantra :-)
Shorter lifetimes means shorter times to upgrade the network.
Not just the ISL, but also the rest of the forwarding hardware.
Given that spaceX is putting these satellites up at marginal launch costs,
and I think getting a very very significant R&D and publicity boost from the
very rapid pace of launches and booster reuses, it seems like it's just a win-win-win.
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^ permalink raw reply [flat|nested] 7+ messages in thread* Re: [Starlink] Starlink lost over 200 satellites in two months – tracker data
2023-10-02 12:27 ` Michael Richardson
@ 2023-10-02 13:48 ` Alexandre Petrescu
0 siblings, 0 replies; 7+ messages in thread
From: Alexandre Petrescu @ 2023-10-02 13:48 UTC (permalink / raw)
To: starlink
Le 02/10/2023 à 14:27, Michael Richardson via Starlink a écrit :
> Ulrich Speidel via Starlink <starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:
> > In the case of Starlink, there is also the minor issue that their initial
> > constellation that they started commercial ops with isn't ISL-capable, so
> > there may be an incentive here to retire some satellites early, perhaps, and
> > fill their orbital slots with more capable birds.
>
> I think that it falls into the fail-early dot-com mantra :-)
> Shorter lifetimes means shorter times to upgrade the network.
> Not just the ISL, but also the rest of the forwarding hardware.
>
> Given that spaceX is putting these satellites up at marginal launch costs,
> and I think getting a very very significant R&D and publicity boost from the
> very rapid pace of launches and booster reuses, it seems like it's just a win-win-win.
I think it is excellent that a LEO constellation can be upgraded that
fast. It means there will be an ever improved service to end users.
This reliable launch frequency, orbiting, de-orbiting, are extraordinary
technical achievements.
However, as with everything, one should also think about the
inconvenients. It can't simply be a win-win-win, without someone to
loose something.
Probably one of the inconvenients is the additional risks involved by
re-entry, new collision avoidance necessities, and sky observation
blockage. There is also the risk of some unwanted collision hapening up
there but deemed as wanted by some. It is new unknowns - says a
non-expert - that we add to the already shaky overall system. They
should not be overlooked.
True too: probably it is the technology too that might help alleviate
these potential problems (if problems they are), and not the lack of
technology.
Alex
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> Starlink mailing list
> Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink
^ permalink raw reply [flat|nested] 7+ messages in thread
* Re: [Starlink] Starlink lost over 200 satellites in two months – tracker data
2023-10-02 10:15 ` Alexandre Petrescu
2023-10-02 10:39 ` Ulrich Speidel
@ 2023-10-02 20:08 ` David Lang
1 sibling, 0 replies; 7+ messages in thread
From: David Lang @ 2023-10-02 20:08 UTC (permalink / raw)
To: Alexandre Petrescu; +Cc: starlink
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On Mon, 2 Oct 2023, Alexandre Petrescu via Starlink wrote:
> One can see the starlink 're-entries' on some re-entry public databases.
>
> On this one from aerospace.org, one can see starlink re-entries
> yesterday, and also 29 sept., 27 sept., etc.
>
> https://aerospace.org/reentries/grid
>
> It seems to me - a non expert - that starlink regularly re-enters its
> sats and puts new ones in orbit. Maybe a starlink sat has a lifetime of
> 2-3 years.
They are intended to have a ~5 year lifetime. the rentry stats are probably
skewed by the one mission tht lost all 40+ sats because there was a solar flare
at the wrong time, raising the atmospere enough that none of them were able to
climb to altitude.
David Lang
>> Object
>>
> <https://aerospace.org/reentries/grid?field_reentry_sighting_value=All&format_select=table&reentry_timezone_selector=UTC&order=title&sort=asc>
>> Mission
>>
> <https://aerospace.org/reentries/grid?field_reentry_sighting_value=All&format_select=table&reentry_timezone_selector=UTC&order=field_mission&sort=asc>
>> Reentry Type
>>
> <https://aerospace.org/reentries/grid?field_reentry_sighting_value=All&format_select=table&reentry_timezone_selector=UTC&order=field_reentry_type&sort=asc>
>> Launched
>>
> <https://aerospace.org/reentries/grid?field_reentry_sighting_value=All&format_select=table&reentry_timezone_selector=UTC&order=field_launched&sort=asc>
>> Predicted Reentry Time
>>
> <https://aerospace.org/reentries/grid?field_reentry_sighting_value=All&format_select=table&reentry_timezone_selector=UTC&order=field_predicted_reentry_time&sort=desc>
>>
>> STARLINK-1868 (ID 47154) <https://aerospace.org/reentries/47154>
>> Launch L15 Payload Nov 25, 2020 Oct 01, 2023 15:39:12 ± 16
> hours
>> IUS R/B(1) (ID 19884) <https://aerospace.org/reentries/19884> STS
>> 29/TDRS 4 Rocket Body Mar 13, 1989 Sep 30, 2023 12:32:28 ± 7
> hours
>> STARLINK-1074 (ID 44957) <https://aerospace.org/reentries/44957>
>> Launch L2 Payload Jan 07, 2020 Sep 29, 2023 20:53:28 ± 3
> hours
>> STARLINK-5596 (ID 55476) <https://aerospace.org/reentries/55476>
>> Launch Group 5-3 Payload Feb 02, 2023 Sep 27, 2023 17:41:11
> ± 6 hours
>> STARLINK-2345 (ID 47886) <https://aerospace.org/reentries/47886>
>> Launch L21 Payload Mar 14, 2021 Sep 27, 2023 15:58:50 ± 1
> hour
>> COSMOS 1124 (ID 11509) <https://aerospace.org/reentries/11509>
> COSMOS
>> 1124 Payload Aug 28, 1979 Sep 27, 2023 00:23:01 ± 1 hour
>> CERES-1 R/B (ID 57796) <https://aerospace.org/reentries/57796>
> TIANQI
>> 21-24 Rocket Body Sep 05, 2023 Sep 25, 2023 06:59:01 ± 1
> hour
>> STARLINK-2212 (ID 47779) <https://aerospace.org/reentries/47779>
>> Launch L17 Payload Mar 04, 2021 Sep 25, 2023 03:11:43 ± 1
> hour
>> STARLINK-1419 (ID 45694) <https://aerospace.org/reentries/45694>
>> Launch L7 Payload Jun 04, 2020 Sep 24, 2023 11:01:39 ± 10
> hours
>> STARLINK-1026 (ID 44731) <https://aerospace.org/reentries/44731>
>> Launch L1 Payload Nov 11, 2019 Sep 22, 2023 22:21:15 ± 3
> hours
>> ELECTRON KICK STAGE R/B (ID 55328)
>> <https://aerospace.org/reentries/46929> SPACEBEE Rocket Body
> Nov
>> 20, 2020 Sep 21, 2023 12:57:34 ± 1 hour
>> SL-4 R/B (ID 57863) <https://aerospace.org/reentries/57863> SOYUZ
>> MS-24 Rocket Body Sep 15, 2023 Sep 18, 2023 04:58:16 ± 1
> hour
>> DELTA 2 R/B(2) (PAM-D) (ID 35754)
>> <https://aerospace.org/reentries/35754> USA-206 (GPS IIRM-8)
> Rocket
>> Body Aug 17, 2009 Sep 18, 2023 04:37:26 ± 1 hour
>> KSLV-1 R/B (ID 39069) <https://aerospace.org/reentries/39069>
>> STSAT-2C Rocket Body Jan 30, 2013 Sep 16, 2023 01:21:47 ± 1
> hour
>> ELECTRON R/B (ID 44635) <https://aerospace.org/reentries/44635>
>> Palisade Rocket Body Oct 17, 2019 Sep 13, 2023 22:07:51 ± 1
> hour
>> STARLINK-30042 (ID 55702) <https://aerospace.org/reentries/55702>
>> Starlink Group 6-1 Payload Feb 27, 2023 Sep 13, 2023 21:07:58
> ± 3
>> hours
>>
>
> Alex
>
> Le 20/09/2023 à 00:55, Dave Taht via Starlink a écrit :
>> The original poster of that to twitter walks it back to 54 since the
>> beginning of the year.
>>
>> On Tue, Sep 19, 2023 at 7:48 AM the keyboard of geoff goodfellow via
>> Starlink <starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:
>>
>> ➔➔https://cybernews.com/news/starlink-lost-200-satellites/
>>
>> --
>> Geoff.Goodfellow@iconia.com
>> living as The Truth is True
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> Starlink mailing list
>> Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
>> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink
>>
>>
>>
>> --
>> Oct 30:
>> https://netdevconf.info/0x17/news/the-maestro-and-the-music-bof.html
>> Dave Täht CSO, LibreQos
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> Starlink mailing list
>> Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
>> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink
> _______________________________________________
> Starlink mailing list
> Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink
>
^ permalink raw reply [flat|nested] 7+ messages in thread