From mboxrd@z Thu Jan 1 00:00:00 1970 Return-Path: Received: from vsmx001.dclux.xion.oxcs.net (vsmx001.dclux.xion.oxcs.net [185.74.65.81]) (using TLSv1.2 with cipher ADH-AES256-GCM-SHA384 (256/256 bits)) (No client certificate requested) by lists.bufferbloat.net (Postfix) with ESMTPS id E988C3CB35 for ; Wed, 30 Jun 2021 03:44:01 -0400 (EDT) Received: from proxy-2.proxy.oxio.ns.xion.oxcs.net (proxy-2.proxy.oxio.ns.xion.oxcs.net [149.74.221.164]) by mx-out.dclux.xion.oxcs.net (Postfix) with SMTP id 887D28C02E0; Wed, 30 Jun 2021 07:43:57 +0000 (UTC) DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=simple/simple; d=dclux.xion.oxcs.net; s=mail1; t=1625039041; bh=UiaCdmz++gLBYXx6Amkf5vtZwqKQRFepO8O6AMxtK8I=; h=Date:From:To:Cc:In-Reply-To:References:Subject:From; b=HcYXZD3Waje8QgPlveXsxdrauTbxMsdSm4bnQc8Z82BkHnzqfxtEQNbjEkKu54nMX ON5v5VYExjH3x9yDc7T01WAt47lyUVCmQCjoWD1zNxP19u+61ri60dyzFQGW4MCiqw CB71Qm9255OFf2AHn36okhpJALbm5la0dUrhRJt6AWrKyQEj/cXBAQ8gG3rHtoH6kv eYkcJ/4xA3AUrOxQpL9w88rjN3Cgx0e5n/3bjFoiAeio+i4fmuJFkiRxE5WYKPQuNa jFF5W0Y0Lr1YitRc27OXQBuasd0GEyoZ6YmdN5vJcg7gB2ohAyRbnVRAiSubaVnS5w U5IkcVJwv8fFA== Date: Wed, 30 Jun 2021 09:43:50 +0200 From: Mike Puchol To: David Lang Cc: Dave Taht , starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net Message-ID: <9764beda-6438-4e46-b2b2-f87f51368903@Spark> In-Reply-To: References: <85542036-9ff8-75d2-438e-c86cc0c105d8@sokolov.eu.org> X-Readdle-Message-ID: 9764beda-6438-4e46-b2b2-f87f51368903@Spark MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="60dc20bb_2a487cb0_1d24" X-VadeSecure-Status: LEGIT X-VADE-STATUS: LEGIT Subject: Re: [Starlink] 69,000 Users X-BeenThere: starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.20 Precedence: list List-Id: "Starlink has bufferbloat. Bad." List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 30 Jun 2021 07:44:02 -0000 --60dc20bb_2a487cb0_1d24 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Disposition: inline I wasn=E2=80=99t suggesting 500k users was anywhere near break even point= , but the opposite - that they need orders of magnitude to reach profitab= ility. Lifespan of a satellite is determined by many factors, including decay of= solar panels and batteries, or radiation and thermal damage. You can des= ign satellites to last decades, as the GSO operators do, but they become = really expensive as a result. The equation becomes =E2=80=9Chow much time= does a satellite spend serving paying customers before it dies=E2=80=9D.= The financial modeling is extremely complex. As an example, do you consid= er a satellite serving a customer for a few minutes a day, at =24100/mont= h, as fully participant in that revenue=3F Or do you assign the proportio= nal amount of revenue to the time serving (e.g. =242.50). Do you book the= time satellites are over non-serviced area as a loss=3F Or just lost rev= enue opportunity=3F Does a gateway site become a standalone entity=3F Or = do you have 9 antennas, and thus 9 entities, each with an independent con= tribution to revenue=3F Using all the above as examples, not to start a discussion which would be= very off-topic :-) Best, Mike On Jun 30, 2021, 9:30 AM +0200, David Lang , wrote: > they have =46CC approval for 1m customer terminals in the US, and have = asked to > increase that due to demonstrated demand (to something like 5m terminal= s) > > 500k customers is not nearly the break-even point, but that's still a l= ot of > equipment deployed and supported. > > I suspect that they will be more limited by the number of stations they= can > build than the interest from customers. As user density increases, they= will > need to launch more satellites, but as Starship comes online, the cost = to do so > will drop significantly. > > the orbital life of a satellite may end up being a bit better than you = think, > they will de-orbit by themselves after about 5 years, but they do have = thrusters > that they can use to raise their orbits to extend their lives if they d= on't need > the fuel for collision avoidance. > > David Lang > > On Wed, 30 Jun 2021, Mike Puchol wrote: > > > Date: Wed, 30 Jun 2021 09:23:02 +0200 > > =46rom: Mike Puchol > > To: David Lang , Dave Taht > > Cc: starlink=40lists.bufferbloat.net > > Subject: Re: =5BStarlink=5D 69,000 Users > > > > 500k customers is =7E=24600m in gross revenue per year. Assuming no o= perating costs, takes, etc., =2410bn takes =7E16 years to pay back. They = need to add way more customers onto that investment. > > > > In traditional land-based telcos, it is frequent to split the backbon= e and customer sides, having a =E2=80=9CTowerCo=E2=80=9D with all the exp= ensive infrastructure, that has a payback period of 25 years, and =E2=80=9C= CustomerCo=E2=80=9D where payback needs to be 12-18 months. In Starlink=E2= =80=99s case, unless they cannot increase satellite lifespan, and/or make= them very cheap, the payback period is fixed at 5 years. =46or gateways = and ground infrastructure, you can stretch it to compensate, but you cann= ot justify, say, a 50 year payback. > > > > IMHO the direct to customer side will end up being residual, high pri= ce for those who really need it, and their revenue will come from backhau= ling mobile and =46TTH operators, airlines, cruises, and the military. > > > > Best, > > > > Mike > > On Jun 30, 2021, 7:48 AM +0200, Dave Taht , wr= ote: > > > On Tue, Jun 29, 2021 at 10:24 PM David Lang wrote= : > > > > > > > > I think that was 69k simultanious users > > > > > > > > dishy production cost is currently down to =7E=241k/unit (I've he= ard that it was > > > > =7E=243k/unit for the first ones) > > > > > > Keep hoping they will add good, nay, great=21=21 queue management. > > > Software costs nothing in qty. > > > > > > > But the long term upside if they can pull it off is a license to = print money, > > > > I've seen speculation that it's on the order of 30B/year when ful= ly built > > > > > > I think that's kind of doable. > > > > > > It's too bad all those users are behind a CGN and cannot talk to ea= ch > > > other, routing calls at least from one village to another would sta= y > > > on the same sat. > > > > > > > > > > > David Lang > > > > > > > > On Tue, 29 Jun 2021, Daniel AJ Sokolov wrote: > > > > > > > > > Date: Tue, 29 Jun 2021 19:00:32 -0700 > > > > > =46rom: Daniel AJ Sokolov > > > > > To: starlink=40lists.bufferbloat.net > > > > > Subject: =5BStarlink=5D 69,000 Users > > > > > > > > > > Starlink currently has 69,000 User, according to what Elon Musk= said > > > > > today at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona. > > > > > > > > > > In a year, he wants to have 500,000 users. > > > > > > > > > > He expects having to invest 25 to 30 billion US-Dollars to full= y build > > > > > Starlink. > > > > > > > > > > Each Dishy costs Starlink about double the current purchase pri= ce. > > > > > However, they want to reduce the production cost to =22a few hu= ndred > > > > > dollars=22 - which is why they are working on their own factory= in Texas. > > > > > > > > > > =46YI > > > > > Daniel > > > > > > > > > > =5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F= =5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F= =5F > > > > > Starlink mailing list > > > > > Starlink=40lists.bufferbloat.net > > > > > https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink > > > > > > > > > =5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F= =5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F= > > > > Starlink mailing list > > > > Starlink=40lists.bufferbloat.net > > > > https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink > > > > > > > > > > > > -- > > > Latest Podcast: > > > https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:67910142849367= 85920/ > > > > > > Dave T=C3=A4ht CTO, TekLibre, LLC > > > =5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F= =5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F > > > Starlink mailing list > > > Starlink=40lists.bufferbloat.net > > > https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink --60dc20bb_2a487cb0_1d24 Content-Type: text/html; charset="utf-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Disposition: inline
I wasn=E2=80=99t suggesting 500k users was anywhere= near break even point, but the opposite - that they need orders of magni= tude to reach profitability.

Lifespan of a satellite is determined by many factors, including decay of= solar panels and batteries, or radiation and thermal damage. You can des= ign satellites to last decades, as the GSO operators do, but they become = really expensive as a result. The equation becomes =E2=80=9Chow much time= does a satellite spend serving paying customers before it dies=E2=80=9D.=

The financial modeling is extremely complex. As an example, do you consid= er a satellite serving a customer for a few minutes a day, at =24100/mont= h, as fully participant in that revenue=3F Or do you assign the proportio= nal amount of revenue to the time serving (e.g. =242.50). Do you book the= time satellites are over non-serviced area as a loss=3F Or just lost rev= enue opportunity=3F Does a gateway site become a standalone entity=3F Or = do you have 9 antennas, and thus 9 entities, each with an independent con= tribution to revenue=3F

Using all the above as examples, not to start a discussion which would be= very off-topic :-)

Best,

Mike
On Jun 30, 2021, 9:30 AM +0200, Dav= id Lang <david=40lang.hm>, wrote:
they have =46CC approval for 1m customer terminals in the US, a= nd have asked to
increase that due to demonstrated demand (to something like 5m terminals)=

500k customers is not nearly the break-even point, but that's still a lot= of
equipment deployed and supported.

I suspect that they will be more limited by the number of stations they c= an
build than the interest from customers. As user density increases, they w= ill
need to launch more satellites, but as Starship comes online, the cost to= do so
will drop significantly.

the orbital life of a satellite may end up being a bit better than you th= ink,
they will de-orbit by themselves after about 5 years, but they do have th= rusters
that they can use to raise their orbits to extend their lives if they don= 't need
the fuel for collision avoidance.

David Lang

On Wed, 30 Jun 2021, Mike Puchol wrote:

Date: Wed, 30 Jun 2021 09:23:02 +0200
= =46rom: Mike Puchol <mike=40starlink.sx>
To: David Lang <david=40lang.hm>, Dave Taht <dave.taht=40gmail.c= om>
Cc: starlink=40lists.bufferbloat.net
Subject: Re: =5BStarlink=5D 69,000 Users

500k customers is =7E=24600m in gross revenue per year. Assuming no opera= ting costs, takes, etc., =2410bn takes =7E16 years to pay back. They need= to add way more customers onto that investment.

In traditional land-based telcos, it is frequent to split the backbone an= d customer sides, having a =E2=80=9CTowerCo=E2=80=9D with all the expensi= ve infrastructure, that has a payback period of 25 years, and =E2=80=9CCu= stomerCo=E2=80=9D where payback needs to be 12-18 months. In Starlink=E2=80= =99s case, unless they cannot increase satellite lifespan, and/or make th= em very cheap, the payback period is fixed at 5 years. =46or gateways and= ground infrastructure, you can stretch it to compensate, but you cannot = justify, say, a 50 year payback.

IMHO the direct to customer side will end up being residual, high price f= or those who really need it, and their revenue will come from backhauling= mobile and =46TTH operators, airlines, cruises, and the military.

Best,

Mike
On Jun 30, 2021, 7:48 AM +0200, Dave Taht <dave.taht=40gmail.com>, = wrote:
On Tue, Jun 29, 2021 at 10:24 PM David Lang= <david=40lang.hm> wrote:

I think that was 69k simultanious users

dishy production cost is currently down to =7E=241k/unit (I've heard that= it was
=7E=243k/unit for the first ones)

Keep hoping they will add good, nay, great=21=21 queue management.
Software costs nothing in qty.

But the long term upside if they can pull i= t off is a license to print money,
I've seen speculation that it's on the order of 30B/year when fully built=

I think that's kind of doable.

It's too bad all those users are behind a CGN and cannot talk to each
other, routing calls at least from one village to another would stay
on the same sat.


David Lang

On Tue, 29 Jun 2021, Daniel AJ Sokolov wrote:

Date: Tue, 29 Jun 2021 19:00:32 -0700
= =46rom: Daniel AJ Sokolov <daniel=40sokolov.eu.org>
To: starlink=40lists.bufferbloat.net
Subject: =5BStarlink=5D 69,000 Users

Starlink currently has 69,000 User, according to what Elon Musk said
today at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona.

In a year, he wants to have 500,000 users.

He expects having to invest 25 to 30 billion US-Dollars to fully build Starlink.

Each Dishy costs Starlink about double the current purchase price.
However, they want to reduce the production cost to =22a few hundred
dollars=22 - which is why they are working on their own factory in Texas.=

=46YI
Daniel

=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F= =5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F
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Latest Podcast:
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6791014284936785920/=

Dave T=C3=A4ht CTO, TekLibre, LLC
=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F= =5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F
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