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boundary="_000_BYAPR03MB386303F48A1F1EBBF8AB3B3DC2049BYAPR03MB3863namp_" MIME-Version: 1.0 X-OriginatorOrg: csudh.edu X-MS-Exchange-CrossTenant-AuthAs: Internal X-MS-Exchange-CrossTenant-AuthSource: BYAPR03MB3863.namprd03.prod.outlook.com X-MS-Exchange-CrossTenant-Network-Message-Id: 449c5f74-f37e-45e1-fc84-08d9fd616318 X-MS-Exchange-CrossTenant-originalarrivaltime: 03 Mar 2022 22:01:36.3997 (UTC) X-MS-Exchange-CrossTenant-fromentityheader: Hosted X-MS-Exchange-CrossTenant-id: 1a66a727-7389-4727-a8cb-f249ac8e7ff8 X-MS-Exchange-CrossTenant-mailboxtype: HOSTED X-MS-Exchange-CrossTenant-userprincipalname: xz/VQc0fYTfXtQhl3QwrvH+4ZQvYZhuncGkU3TNWaFJuE1ncL8fnSOLwCmyI65J+sRs4dI4BYmIOgbuFZkM+rg== X-MS-Exchange-Transport-CrossTenantHeadersStamped: CY1PR03MB2249 X-Proofpoint-GUID: uLUOMEhcIeQuYYHLvWbwY7trMIrXyBNB X-Proofpoint-ORIG-GUID: uLUOMEhcIeQuYYHLvWbwY7trMIrXyBNB X-Proofpoint-Virus-Version: vendor=baseguard engine=ICAP:2.0.205,Aquarius:18.0.816,Hydra:6.0.425,FMLib:17.11.64.514 definitions=2022-03-03_09,2022-02-26_01,2022-02-23_01 X-Proofpoint-Spam-Details: rule=outbound_notspam policy=outbound score=0 bulkscore=0 phishscore=0 mlxscore=0 malwarescore=0 priorityscore=1501 impostorscore=0 spamscore=0 clxscore=1015 lowpriorityscore=0 suspectscore=0 mlxlogscore=999 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx scancount=1 engine=8.12.0-2202240000 definitions=main-2203030100 Subject: Re: [Starlink] spacex & ukraine X-BeenThere: starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.20 Precedence: list List-Id: "Starlink has bufferbloat. Bad." List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Mar 2022 22:01:42 -0000 --_000_BYAPR03MB386303F48A1F1EBBF8AB3B3DC2049BYAPR03MB3863namp_ Content-Type: text/plain; charset="Windows-1252" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable > The balance, as David mentions, is on the value of the target vs. the eff= ort required to strike. The value of allowing government and resistance leaders and journalists to = communicate with each other and the outside world seems quite high, making = the terminals attractive targets for the Russians. The cost of locating and striking a target also seems high -- Ukraine is la= rge and the terminals are portable. SpaceX is testing roaming without re-re= gistration in California/Nevada (https://circleid.com/posts/20220225-spacex= -is-testing-starlink-roaming). If SpaceX is listening -- consider enabling = roaming in by the users in Ukraine. Larry ________________________________ From: Starlink on behalf of Mike P= uchol Sent: Wednesday, March 2, 2022 1:06 AM To: Dave Taht ; David Lang Cc: starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net Subject: Re: [Starlink] spacex & ukraine Thank you Dave, the honor is mine to share a mailing list with so many peop= le who know way more than I do, about any subject I could point my finger a= t, so I really appreciate it. On the subject at hand, ELINT/SIGINT and traffic analysis has evolved massi= vely over the years. In the mid-90s, the Chechen president was killed by Ru= ssia with a missile strike, based on his satcom phone signals, which includ= ed decoding the speech and matching to ensure they were hitting the right t= arget. The balance, as David mentions, is on the value of the target vs. the effor= t required to strike. It is relatively easy to monitor cellular networks, d= ecrypt the traffic, and triangulate to almost automatically target & strike= . The same happens with VSAT, which operates against a fixed satellite, so = an aircraft high enough will be in the path between a large portion of the = ground and the satellite. With Starlink, the challenge is two-fold. You must be able to detect & loca= te the 4.5=BA wide uplink beam from a terminal, which constantly moves - th= is can be done by measuring just the RF levels and using an ESA to find the= source. You must also ensure that the user of the terminal is a target val= uable enough to justify a strike, which would be a lot harder, as you need = to keep a good enough SNR to demodulate, then you=92d need to decrypt. Doin= g this in real time on an airborne platform is quite a challenge. Bottom line: unless Russia goes all-out against anyone using any form of ra= dio comms (phones, VSAT, satcom, Starlink, etc.) and they just blindly stri= ke any source of RF, a Starlink user has a good chance to avoid being targe= ted by just using the terminal. Different case is if terminals get used by = the military, and Russia then assumes Starlink =3D military target. We=92re= far from any clear scenario, so we need to wait & see. A couple of weeks ago I sent a Ku band LNB to Oleg, tuned to the Starlink u= plink band (12.75 - 14.5 GHz), but it arrived a couple of days before the i= nvasion began, so he didn=92t get a chance to do any analysis on the TX sid= e of the terminal. Best, Mike On Mar 1, 2022, 22:15 +0300, David Lang , wrote: a couple thoughts on anti-radiation missiles being fired at starlink dishes 1. the dishes are fairly low power (100w or less) and rather directional, s= o they aren't great targets. 2. dishes cost FAR less than the missiles that would be fired at them, and = are being produced at a much higher rate (although there are probably more miss= les in the Russian inventory than spare dishes in SpaceX inventory) direction finding teams with boots on the ground could be more of a threat,= but the higher frequency signals are blocked fairly easily (which is why the di= shes need a clear view of the sky). It takes a fair amount of training to be goo= d at direction finding on weak and intermittent signals. David Lang On Tue, 1 Mar 2022, Dave Taht wrote: Date: Tue, 1 Mar 2022 13:55:47 -0500 From: Dave Taht To: starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net Subject: [Starlink] spacex & ukraine It is an ongoing honor to have mike puchol sharing his insights with us, also, on this list. https://spacenews.com/spacex-heeds-ukraines-starlink-sos/ -- I tried to build a better future, a few times: https://wayforward.archive.org/?site=3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.icei.org Dave T=E4ht CEO, TekLibre, LLC _______________________________________________ Starlink mailing list Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink _______________________________________________ Starlink mailing list Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink --_000_BYAPR03MB386303F48A1F1EBBF8AB3B3DC2049BYAPR03MB3863namp_ Content-Type: text/html; charset="Windows-1252" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
> The balance, as David mentions, is on the value of the target vs. the effort r= equired to strike. 
<= br>
T= he value of allowing government and resistance leaders and journalists to com= municate with each other and the outside world seems quite high, making the= terminals attractive targets for the Russians.
<= br>
T= he cost of locating and striking a target also seems high -- Ukraine is large= and the terminals are portable. SpaceX is testing roaming without re-regis= tration in California/Nevada (https://circleid= .com/posts/20220225-spacex-is-testing-starlink-roaming). If SpaceX is listening -- consider enabling roaming in by the users in Ukr= aine.

Larry

From: Starlink <starlink= -bounces@lists.bufferbloat.net> on behalf of Mike Puchol <mike@starli= nk.sx>
Sent: Wednesday, March 2, 2022 1:06 AM
To: Dave Taht <dave.taht@gmail.com>; David Lang <david@lang= .hm>
Cc: starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net <starlink@lists.bufferbloat.ne= t>
Subject: Re: [Starlink] spacex & ukraine
 
Thank you Dave, the honor is mine to share a mailing list= with so many people who know way more than I do, about any subject I could= point my finger at, so I really appreciate it.

On the subject at hand, ELINT/SIGINT and traffic analysis has evolved massi= vely over the years. In the mid-90s, the Chechen president was killed by Ru= ssia with a missile strike, based on his satcom phone signals, which includ= ed decoding the speech and matching to ensure they were hitting the right target.

The balance, as David mentions, is on the value of the target vs. the effor= t required to strike. It is relatively easy to monitor cellular networks, d= ecrypt the traffic, and triangulate to almost automatically target & st= rike. The same happens with VSAT, which operates against a fixed satellite, so an aircraft high enough will be in = the path between a large portion of the ground and the satellite.

With Starlink, the challenge is two-fold. You must be able to detect & = locate the 4.5=BA wide uplink beam from a terminal, which constantly moves = - this can be done by measuring just the RF levels and using an ESA to find= the source. You must also ensure that the user of the terminal is a target valuable enough to justify a strike, = which would be a lot harder, as you need to keep a good enough SNR to demod= ulate, then you=92d need to decrypt. Doing this in real time on an airborne= platform is quite a challenge.

Bottom line: unless Russia goes all-out against anyone using any form of ra= dio comms (phones, VSAT, satcom, Starlink, etc.) and they just blindly stri= ke any source of RF, a Starlink user has a good chance to avoid being targe= ted by just using the terminal. Different case is if terminals get used by the military, and Russia then a= ssumes Starlink =3D military target. We=92re far from any clear scenario, s= o we need to wait & see.

A couple of weeks ago I sent a Ku band LNB to Oleg, tuned to the Starlink u= plink band (12.75 - 14.5 GHz), but it arrived a couple of days before the i= nvasion began, so he didn=92t get a chance to do any analysis on the TX sid= e of the terminal.

Best,

Mike
On Mar 1, 2022, 22:15 +0300, David Lang= <david@lang.hm>, wrote:
a couple thoughts on anti-radiation missiles being fired at starlink dishes=

1. the dishes are fairly low power (100w or less) and rather directional, s= o
they aren't great targets.

2. dishes cost FAR less than the missiles that would be fired at them, and = are
being produced at a much higher rate (although there are probably more miss= les
in the Russian inventory than spare dishes in SpaceX inventory)

direction finding teams with boots on the ground could be more of a threat,= but
the higher frequency signals are blocked fairly easily (which is why the di= shes
need a clear view of the sky). It takes a fair amount of training to be goo= d at
direction finding on weak and intermittent signals.

David Lang

On Tue, 1 Mar 2022, Dave Taht wrote:

Date: Tue, 1 Mar 2022 13:55:47 -0500
From: Dave Taht <dave.taht@gmail.com>
To: starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
Subject: [Starlink] spacex & ukraine

It is an ongoing honor to have mike puchol sharing his insights with
us, also, on this list.

https://spacenews.com/spacex-heeds= -ukraines-starlink-sos/

--
I tried to build a better future, a few times:
https://wayforward.arc= hive.org/?site=3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.icei.org

Dave T=E4ht CEO, TekLibre, LLC
_______________________________________________
Starlink mailing list
Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starl= ink
_______________________________________________
Starlink mailing list
Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starl= ink
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