From mboxrd@z Thu Jan 1 00:00:00 1970 Return-Path: Received: from mail-wm1-x32d.google.com (mail-wm1-x32d.google.com [IPv6:2a00:1450:4864:20::32d]) (using TLSv1.2 with cipher ECDHE-RSA-AES128-GCM-SHA256 (128/128 bits)) (No client certificate requested) by lists.bufferbloat.net (Postfix) with ESMTPS id 78D583B2A4 for ; Sun, 30 Apr 2023 08:48:32 -0400 (EDT) Received: by mail-wm1-x32d.google.com with SMTP id 5b1f17b1804b1-3f1e2555b5aso8779935e9.0 for ; Sun, 30 Apr 2023 05:48:32 -0700 (PDT) DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=gmail.com; s=20221208; t=1682858911; x=1685450911; h=content-transfer-encoding:to:subject:message-id:date:from :mime-version:from:to:cc:subject:date:message-id:reply-to; bh=XUkTnAG2GhBd6ojpgxa1+YVJ7ediCIhs34urN+VmbF8=; b=aU2/tw42uNQF+yIx5CZ2CfnrHraYQYLxlk0r6c12I8/59BA/vLAJm4WUlO8Y/5F+fk aMf6ZD8hKFTiny8P3xGCcjsFxKX/M2E3hyvdFq7oH9iO91GJZT/CuGXb7mg0nvHsRTqu e3ZdGItkp8IRhw7pOjY4fSH24n40nQWNT1eYUisjS/U9Gn+xLB6yjPnFcdsIYWBCc16E uGl+ckEEsN/9vXYXIaxtaBAoKMAeoI811glBOGIqlqo/3xRI34aeI9eDfoJg73EVMoTz cSeZm9lJXprdkzgPzv2co+ypqIiXFtvU93/5eGQFNQwG2wmt7n6/EQDQauCXmuuEPMqC OAzQ== X-Google-DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=1e100.net; s=20221208; t=1682858911; x=1685450911; h=content-transfer-encoding:to:subject:message-id:date:from :mime-version:x-gm-message-state:from:to:cc:subject:date:message-id :reply-to; bh=XUkTnAG2GhBd6ojpgxa1+YVJ7ediCIhs34urN+VmbF8=; b=ZsgyME75ZQtMLP0cX5ou2WGqLLdIEtST9PiU1wvMbXw5g5fRPU1ANrS+mmeKKpeF44 N7KYjXHT1zOEz9G+XD8i7hoqGD9T4CbtiyBTMV38MgvxOF09xS1yFlsqXpOGdSkRpKXg tAVo/i4nJBCCDkPhSzJak02xLTk5lqqigsuiaxK8May1URtQvcDGnpeE9rJBnlCUQKtj EDhmnS1/0BsSxxIfCS04yWtLCiHSaEEN+KCNc/u0kibOuW1CzuktokBAgc/p1z6iSBk3 nWtQorhJl+S0zYnSxiC8fB3KZob/DcX30u+oovYsq7tYL7Yy6uQNXItVfh4T/W2CB9AT nfFQ== X-Gm-Message-State: AC+VfDy9QMGtfjrai1Vc0UxuTNWL8frMPkwJE0s6HDBdNvzTKEboCQkS eVVW+p8KJuN37xwC7m4s5AXM/vsZyG00mvru9cIZVhdQFBI= X-Google-Smtp-Source: ACHHUZ4GV3gBwGaQJxGWquPjeL6Z6wcIMTTtDpIpowhZ7CZ7uPfV2rkUrmObNFYaBKMJMEdsEJGVFKRvkwLwfKa9bkg= X-Received: by 2002:a1c:f717:0:b0:3f1:8aaa:c20c with SMTP id v23-20020a1cf717000000b003f18aaac20cmr7767896wmh.7.1682858910783; Sun, 30 Apr 2023 05:48:30 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 From: Dave Taht Date: Sun, 30 Apr 2023 05:48:20 -0700 Message-ID: To: Dave Taht via Starlink Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Subject: [Starlink] a bit more starship news X-BeenThere: starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.20 Precedence: list List-Id: "Starlink has bufferbloat. Bad." List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Sun, 30 Apr 2023 12:48:32 -0000 Aside from using triggering words, like "shrapnel", rather than debris, this is a pretty good, and profoundly negative summary of the Starship launch. https://youtu.be/ErDuVomNd9M Nit: I get bugged by folk like this raising local environmental concerns, as if you make the half an hour long drive to the launch site, there are plenty of wetlands to spare. Obliterating 1000 diameter meters of it, turning it into a concrete strewn wasteland, (and not coated with hypergolic poisons) for a launch site, seems trivial compared to oh, paving over manhattan, or what it took to build out towns like brownsville in the first place, and reminds me of the enormous fight to save the snail darter.[1] This also, was a fair minded summary of the negatives of where things stand: https://thenext30trips.com/p/scrappy-special-edition and what seems to me to be a great suggestion in locating the launch site *just offshore*, in the comments. Anyway, over here was a summary of what actually happened, according to Musk. The pad damage was not what caused the shutdown of 3 engines, and requalifying the ATS is what will take the most time. Still projecting 4-5 flights this year. https://twitter.com/JackKuhr/status/1652466221390913536 I note that my principal interest, at least, in the short term, was in thinking about how the Starship development timeline affects the starlink rollout. The "v2" satellites already constructed are effectively already obsolete, and their technologies being shrunk down into the v2 minis and successors, and the network behaviors themselves continually optimized. Right now I think it will be 2+ years before the first meaningful launch of the larger starlink satellites on Starship, and at the same time the flight rate of the falcons keeps getting better and better. I would kind of expect the "v3 mini" to have roughly the same throughput as the v2s at an ongoing half the size. Starlink is now well over a billion dollar a year revenue business, which is insanely better than what iridium achieved before entering bankruptcy (Iridium was under 70k users as best as I recall around then). Whatever spacex and starlink are spending on R&D makes me shudder. I am finding it odd that they have stopped publishing user growth numbers - small personal data point: in working with libreqos users, I am hearing about a 40% rate of folk that switched from WISP to starlink and back - so customer retention might be a problem as soon as someone finds a better service elsewhere. Another number I am trying to track is the useful life of the v1s - projected to last 5 years. There are 70+% of the first launch still operational. ( https://twitter.com/VirtuallyNathan is an ongoing sump of info) [1] https://twitter.com/JackKuhr/status/1652466221390913536 -- AMA March 31: https://www.broadband.io/c/broadband-grant-events/dave-taht Dave T=C3=A4ht CEO, TekLibre, LLC