From mboxrd@z Thu Jan 1 00:00:00 1970 Return-Path: Received: from mail-wm1-x32c.google.com (mail-wm1-x32c.google.com [IPv6:2a00:1450:4864:20::32c]) (using TLSv1.2 with cipher ECDHE-RSA-AES128-GCM-SHA256 (128/128 bits)) (No client certificate requested) by lists.bufferbloat.net (Postfix) with ESMTPS id A62CE3B29D for ; Tue, 2 May 2023 13:18:01 -0400 (EDT) Received: by mail-wm1-x32c.google.com with SMTP id 5b1f17b1804b1-3f37a36b713so571395e9.1 for ; Tue, 02 May 2023 10:18:01 -0700 (PDT) DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=gmail.com; s=20221208; t=1683047880; x=1685639880; h=content-transfer-encoding:cc:to:subject:message-id:date:from :in-reply-to:references:mime-version:from:to:cc:subject:date :message-id:reply-to; bh=9sjw5fOMBsCKWJk2I4zFMGT1+0/SaMB6LZj/Ckh0MzI=; b=FDM71xeRGwAVzO+utq7n3mqHdaAJeMLltWkhTutlVcYQpQ//bCFXwzsyJm68ylMslQ IxB18RpPSAnl27/kpqazY/U/oXa4HpClvCWlWIIZUlZOb2visx/fLeqGG7SGYRD6IuxA HSSWTt0+jSyvncEgheH9FE2tXGbn6JaY1/rNjyNp+ffIWCPn7maUGlAOn6SExDNwaZAA 79aFZeL8Ph0FWXqm5WDDfcnpmVpdx6ippxizo3qBurrKDVV73wirHW7UxJTouESBmg+t 0U9qGtV1H/TAET0lEGSpxHVV0ix6LRZlYqYUWUqgDYJcG3S9hX3y64yfDihOrzDKW8CK YYqQ== X-Google-DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=1e100.net; s=20221208; t=1683047880; x=1685639880; h=content-transfer-encoding:cc:to:subject:message-id:date:from :in-reply-to:references:mime-version:x-gm-message-state:from:to:cc :subject:date:message-id:reply-to; bh=9sjw5fOMBsCKWJk2I4zFMGT1+0/SaMB6LZj/Ckh0MzI=; b=OVyUDCCdiEPSPoGC57q9+el6Opa476oLkJSZYdd81D+sowSzY+WDu3/wTyGtPOSyi2 iS7zxuG5SXXG55pKvRHIf7SaHDVz5GIPfu/ims7P3WaTf+EkZ+JVaVjMD4MhxUkiFP6T f2mRYY4b2/R19Eo/JLmqaNK14AMwdgxGE93JPFwuhwvd0GWdvfQ+HIhlrQFaWAMNufJM RWvbXeA0sSrndrh6M4wgmhU4A4X0KV/n6Wpg2diBXOt5e6BTCm8gJ3cYcvmoVtGa57UW eUwPAjRkR3E8u4O5GzKlemooGk7CqkQDs1dRKMnI8rd7fCSyJmOfQTL9dbPKm3bAhUeo 3RYg== X-Gm-Message-State: AC+VfDzYpK+3209F2DPlMmMdgOW9D5G6eT7j5KvtdE8stghzLcEDRChW ChKYaN3gUrSGdAahqjeK5Pb35iKUhCZMdHPbIXkClx6+qXE= X-Google-Smtp-Source: ACHHUZ5r4Un1yI4ZSbo3QmIFv5qMuQJT4r6bef3Qa2MMS3U6K+YbchWAgzbmWp3QDSEGO9UIejQYxdS4Qgs9C8dK0kA= X-Received: by 2002:a7b:c856:0:b0:3f3:1fa6:d2c8 with SMTP id c22-20020a7bc856000000b003f31fa6d2c8mr11812214wml.26.1683047880239; Tue, 02 May 2023 10:18:00 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 References: <1683044852.771727663@apps.rackspace.com> In-Reply-To: <1683044852.771727663@apps.rackspace.com> From: Dave Taht Date: Tue, 2 May 2023 10:17:49 -0700 Message-ID: To: "David P. Reed" Cc: starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Subject: Re: [Starlink] a bit more starship news (David Lang) X-BeenThere: starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.20 Precedence: list List-Id: "Starlink has bufferbloat. Bad." List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Tue, 02 May 2023 17:18:01 -0000 Dear David: I welcome dissent and constructive arguments on all the mailing lists I maintain here. I have thought recently about starting a new one, for systems level thinkers, about our space networking architectures going forward, and our earthly ones also, adhering to the same rules I laid out over here, in attempting to restore sanity and eliminate orwellian wordplay in the ECN debate: https://www.bufferbloat.net/projects/ecn-sane/wiki/rules/ " What we see more often is that we sometimes lack the data to draw certain conclusions, because we don=E2=80=99t always have the time and resources to collect it. So we use our intuition when we have to (and there are some pretty darn good ones in this group), but we do have to be careful about what final conclusions we draw. Assertions and hypotheses for sake of discussion starters should be fine, and we shouldn=E2=80=99t be afraid to be wrong with those, lest we freeze before saying or trying anything. We will try to avoid Argumentum ad baculum, Proof by intimidation, Thought terminating cliche=E2=80=99s, Single cause fallacies, Regression fallacies, Proof by repeated Assertion, and Argument from authority". It would lower cross posting and raise the bar over what is too often found on other fora. I have also thought about starting one for politics.... On Tue, May 2, 2023 at 9:27=E2=80=AFAM David P. Reed via Starlink wrote: > > Maybe too far off-topic, but the idea that SpaceX has "less incentive" fo= r distorted accounting because it is "private" and not "public" is absurd a= nd laughable. Agreed. This has been a terrible ten years of too pure PT Barnum across the board, and the devils are coming home to roost, with the 2nd largest bank failure ever, yesterday. Robin Williams nailed what 2008 felt like, here: https://twitter.com/Exclusiventwrk/status/1653021540668112896 (it is a good laugh, try it) I have always looked upon the vast (and intimidating amounts) being spent on ideas such as uber as some kind of disease for which only a recession (and inflation) be a cure, and I fear we are heading for a huge commercial real-estate shakeout in the coming months, in particular, and multiple more banks failing, DC markets drying up, at a scale even greater than 2000 or 2008 were. I look askance at Amazon booking 30B in advertising revenue, when I cannot afford to buy anything... > > > But that has nothing to do with the SpaceX technology itself. So why are = we discussing it? They will survive or not based on what their cash flows w= ill be - and the closer one looks the less promising their cash flows are, = just as before with Tesla. That said, some level of PT Barnum is required for good ideas to succeed also. I think SpaceX=C2=B4s falcon is now an unequivocal success, as is tesla. The balance sheets on TSLA seem to show that. Each individual failure of a starship component so far - with the exception of the untried "showerhead" cooling plate idea, seems fixible, to me, in very short amounts of time. Even launched expendibly, it is more payload to orbit that has ever existed before, and I am sure new uses for it will begin to arrive, if the problems are solved. Another launch or three will tell, and it is not my money being expended! (And far, far more entertaining than other projects) > > > > So, side note: > > > > Why does SpaceX "report a profitable quarter" and not release its full hi= storical book of accounts? And why would someone on this list cite that num= ber alone? (Any professional investor in Silicon Valley would be unimpresse= d - you can make a quarter look profitable by really simple games). The principal number I am looking for, for starlink, is user growth, which they have not reported in a while. I would have expected them to announce cracking 2m users by now, on the growth trajectory they were on. > > > > Hell, Bernie Madoff's private corporation's accounting reports showed *am= azing* performance. BTW, I would vote for the "public stocks" as punishment for madoff-like shenanigans, but I think you are overreaching in associating musk=C2=B4s efforts with Madoff=C2=B4s pyramid schemes. Madoff cooked the books without producing products that people used and loved. > > > But more to the point,so does the Trump Organization. Honestly, can we keep the "T"-guy out of this list=C2=B4s discussions? He doesn=C2=B4t have a space program, what he has is the justifiable (if misplaced) anger of middle/lower america, and it is my fervent wish to somehow extract thoughtful people from both the "godless left" and "alt-right" (to use two triggering terms sufficient to annoy both sides) from a collapse into communism or fascism (still using triggering terms, unapologetically!) If y'all would like me to start a new mailing list where we could discuss politics with some hope of rational debate, I will do so! > > > It feels kind of like reading the National Enquirer to see all the specul= ations about SpaceX's business operations - it's just a celebrity "star-f**= *ing" game. google news, once the bastion of good information, now reads like the national enquirer *generally*. Even the economist, which I still read fairly religiously, feels very dumbed down from 15 years back. I would love to see plots of reading levels required from various publications over the past decade or two, because either I have grown smarter, or the world, dumber! I have reverted to using curated RSS feeds to get my news. > > > > Musk himself has been caught manipulating the books of all the companies = he's in control of, mixing their accounting, etc. to make himself look like= a great businessperson. But it's just a shell game as far as one can tell.= Maybe he's "great" in some sense, but that includes a lot of propaganda. I= stipulate he is a propaganda master, and great at pretending skills he doe= sn't actually have. > > > > Private companies need bankers (even when run by billionaires like Trump = and Musk). Bankers are the target of these "reports". Look at Deutsche Bank= and Trump. It turns out almost all loans to Trump have not performed, yet = Deutsche still poured money into him. There are several other banks in bad straits, SVB a month or two back, First Republic this week, what next? > > > By creating an echo chamber of noise that makes SpaceX look like a "sound= business", the bankers are more likely deceived. No problem - blew up laun= ch pad, wasted a launch by not being careful about known issues - hey, look= s like a brilliant guy. The echo chambers in general - the top down leader/follower paradigm that started to emerge with twitter and facebook, the fact that google doesn=C2=B4t index mailing lists, the vanishing of public conversation to silos not just from facebook and whatsapp, but to mastodon and matrix, all bode ill for better shrinking the world and keeping humanity intelligently talking to each other. > > > > So yeah, he has LOTS of incentive to distort accounting. So do a lot of folk nowadays. Shakeout coming. > > > > _______________________________________________ > Starlink mailing list > Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net > https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink -- Podcast: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7058793910227= 111937/ Dave T=C3=A4ht CSO, LibreQos