[Starlink] 9 starlink flights planned for june

[Starlink] 9 starlink flights planned for june

[Dave Taht]

Ḿind boggling.

https://twitter.com/VirtuallyNathan/status/1653867999919751169


-- 
Podcast: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7058793910227111937/
Dave Täht CSO, LibreQos

Re: [Starlink] 9 starlink flights planned for june

[Nathan Owens]

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FWIW, many of those are likely to slip, there are a number of commercial
launches in June/July. Depends if they re-shuffle Group 6 ahead of other
shells.

Upcoming non-starlink launches from the cape:

May:
- Arabsat 7A (SLC-40)

June:
- CRS-28 (LC-39A)
- WorldView Legion 1 & 2 (SLC-40)
- Axiom 2 (LC-39A), TBD
- Turksat 6A (39A or 40)
- Astranis (39A or 40)
- O3b MPower 5 & 6 (39A or 40)

July:
- Galaxy 37 (39A or 40)
- USSF-52 (39A)
- Euclid (39A or 40)
- USSF-36 (39A or 40)
- Thuraya 4-NGS (39A or 40)

August:
- Crew 7 (39A)
- Echostar 24 (39A)

Sept:
- Axiom 3 (39A)
- Polaris Dawn (39A)
- Ovzon 3 (39A or 40)

On Wed, May 3, 2023 at 2:19 PM Dave Taht via Starlink <
starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:

> Ḿind boggling.
>
> https://twitter.com/VirtuallyNathan/status/1653867999919751169
>
>
> --
> Podcast:
> https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7058793910227111937/
> Dave Täht CSO, LibreQos
> _______________________________________________
> Starlink mailing list
> Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink
>

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Re: [Starlink] 9 starlink flights planned for june

[David Lang]

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As of mid-march, there were 6 launches scheduled for 'march', 4 of them 
starlink, at least 3 of them slipped.

When they list 'June 30 2023' this may have been from an actual scheduled launch 
saying June 30, or it could be from a schedule entry of 'June' or one of 'Q2' or 
even 'H1'

In March, some sites were listing SpaceX doing 3 launches from the same launch 
pad the same day as a result of this.

But SpaceX has done 29 launches in the first 120 days, so they are a bit behind 
schedule for their aim to do 100 launches this year.

rykllan (twitter and patreon) posts infographics showing the progress towards 
this goal every few weeks. Last year (when the target was 60 launches) she did 
it after every launch, but at the new pace, she's backed off a bit :-)

It's also almost time for the next Bryce Briefing reporting on the worldwide 
launch stats for Q1 https://brycetech.com/briefing

David Lang


On Wed, 3 May 2023, Nathan Owens via Starlink wrote:

> FWIW, many of those are likely to slip, there are a number of commercial
> launches in June/July. Depends if they re-shuffle Group 6 ahead of other
> shells.
>
> Upcoming non-starlink launches from the cape:
>
> May:
> - Arabsat 7A (SLC-40)
>
> June:
> - CRS-28 (LC-39A)
> - WorldView Legion 1 & 2 (SLC-40)
> - Axiom 2 (LC-39A), TBD
> - Turksat 6A (39A or 40)
> - Astranis (39A or 40)
> - O3b MPower 5 & 6 (39A or 40)
>
> July:
> - Galaxy 37 (39A or 40)
> - USSF-52 (39A)
> - Euclid (39A or 40)
> - USSF-36 (39A or 40)
> - Thuraya 4-NGS (39A or 40)
>
> August:
> - Crew 7 (39A)
> - Echostar 24 (39A)
>
> Sept:
> - Axiom 3 (39A)
> - Polaris Dawn (39A)
> - Ovzon 3 (39A or 40)
>
> On Wed, May 3, 2023 at 2:19 PM Dave Taht via Starlink <
> starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:
>
>> Ḿind boggling.
>>
>> https://twitter.com/VirtuallyNathan/status/1653867999919751169
>>
>>
>> --
>> Podcast:
>> https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7058793910227111937/
>> Dave Täht CSO, LibreQos
>> _______________________________________________
>> Starlink mailing list
>> Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
>> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink
>>
>

[-- Attachment #2: Type: text/plain, Size: 149 bytes --]

_______________________________________________
Starlink mailing list
Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink

Re: [Starlink] 9 starlink flights planned for june

[Dave Taht]

On Wed, May 3, 2023 at 5:33 PM David Lang <david@lang.hm> wrote:
>
> As of mid-march, there were 6 launches scheduled for 'march', 4 of them
> starlink, at least 3 of them slipped.
>
> When they list 'June 30 2023' this may have been from an actual scheduled launch
> saying June 30, or it could be from a schedule entry of 'June' or one of 'Q2' or
> even 'H1'
>
> In March, some sites were listing SpaceX doing 3 launches from the same launch
> pad the same day as a result of this.
>
> But SpaceX has done 29 launches in the first 120 days, so they are a bit behind
> schedule for their aim to do 100 launches this year.
>
> rykllan (twitter and patreon) posts infographics showing the progress towards
> this goal every few weeks. Last year (when the target was 60 launches) she did
> it after every launch, but at the new pace, she's backed off a bit :-)
>
> It's also almost time for the next Bryce Briefing reporting on the worldwide
> launch stats for Q1 https://brycetech.com/briefing

Thx as always for ever more links to information. They recently
attempted launch from two pads on nearly the same day, I am wondering
what the turnaround time is for boosters these days, and how much
inventory they have. If they can improve their cycle time, 9/month
seems achievable on the 3 pads they have, aside from conflicts with
other launches.

Random thought - other launch sites long term? This was built to great
fanfare a while back

https://www.spaceportamerica.com/business/lease-build/

Also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guiana_Space_Centre

And: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kwajalein_Atoll



>
> David Lang
>
>
> On Wed, 3 May 2023, Nathan Owens via Starlink wrote:
>
> > FWIW, many of those are likely to slip, there are a number of commercial
> > launches in June/July. Depends if they re-shuffle Group 6 ahead of other
> > shells.
> >
> > Upcoming non-starlink launches from the cape:
> >
> > May:
> > - Arabsat 7A (SLC-40)
> >
> > June:
> > - CRS-28 (LC-39A)
> > - WorldView Legion 1 & 2 (SLC-40)
> > - Axiom 2 (LC-39A), TBD
> > - Turksat 6A (39A or 40)
> > - Astranis (39A or 40)
> > - O3b MPower 5 & 6 (39A or 40)
> >
> > July:
> > - Galaxy 37 (39A or 40)
> > - USSF-52 (39A)
> > - Euclid (39A or 40)
> > - USSF-36 (39A or 40)
> > - Thuraya 4-NGS (39A or 40)
> >
> > August:
> > - Crew 7 (39A)
> > - Echostar 24 (39A)
> >
> > Sept:
> > - Axiom 3 (39A)
> > - Polaris Dawn (39A)
> > - Ovzon 3 (39A or 40)
> >
> > On Wed, May 3, 2023 at 2:19 PM Dave Taht via Starlink <
> > starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:
> >
> >> Ḿind boggling.
> >>
> >> https://twitter.com/VirtuallyNathan/status/1653867999919751169
> >>
> >>
> >> --
> >> Podcast:
> >> https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7058793910227111937/
> >> Dave Täht CSO, LibreQos
> >> _______________________________________________
> >> Starlink mailing list
> >> Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
> >> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink
> >>
> >_______________________________________________
> Starlink mailing list
> Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink



-- 
Podcast: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7058793910227111937/
Dave Täht CSO, LibreQos

Re: [Starlink] 9 starlink flights planned for june

[David Lang]

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On Wed, 3 May 2023, Dave Taht wrote:

> Thx as always for ever more links to information. They recently
> attempted launch from two pads on nearly the same day, I am wondering
> what the turnaround time is for boosters these days, and how much
> inventory they have. If they can improve their cycle time, 9/month
> seems achievable on the 3 pads they have, aside from conflicts with
> other launches.

rykllan posts infographics for most launches (not just SpaceX) but for SpaceX 
launches she shows the history of the booster used, including the turnaround 
time for each launch

https://twitter.com/_rykllan

for tonight's launch, the refurb times have been 47, 44, 55, 55 48, 250 days 
(going back in time)

SpaceX just leased SLC-6 at Vandenberg (Shuttle, Delta pad) and has stated that 
their plan is to set it up to be able to launch the Falcon Heavy and Falcon 9

I think their biggest limiting factors are pad availability and landing barge 
availability.

> Random thought - other launch sites long term? This was built to great
> fanfare a while back
>
> https://www.spaceportamerica.com/business/lease-build/

Virgin Galactic has had a pause on their flights for a while. I understand that 
they are soon going to do another employee only flight, but then expect to be 
able to start carrying paying customers

> Also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guiana_Space_Centre

It's heavily used by the ESA, but with the fallout from the Ukraine war, ESA 
lost access to Russian rockets that were launched out of there. They are almost 
out of Ariane 5 rockets to launch from there. Ariane 6 was supposed to fly in 
2020, but they are now hoping to launch the first one late this year (or next 
year)

> And: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kwajalein_Atoll

Pegasus is pretty much dead, there was a mission a couple years ago that was 
carefully tailored to be a match for the Pegasus @$25m launch cost, but SpaceX 
won the bid and used a dedicated Falcon 9 (it's not public what the winning bid 
cost, but we can infer from the Pegasus marketing material and their failure to 
win the bid)

I think that's just too far from the ability to generate fuel for any serious 
launch capacity.

David Lang

>
>
>>
>> David Lang
>>
>>
>> On Wed, 3 May 2023, Nathan Owens via Starlink wrote:
>>
>>> FWIW, many of those are likely to slip, there are a number of commercial
>>> launches in June/July. Depends if they re-shuffle Group 6 ahead of other
>>> shells.
>>>
>>> Upcoming non-starlink launches from the cape:
>>>
>>> May:
>>> - Arabsat 7A (SLC-40)
>>>
>>> June:
>>> - CRS-28 (LC-39A)
>>> - WorldView Legion 1 & 2 (SLC-40)
>>> - Axiom 2 (LC-39A), TBD
>>> - Turksat 6A (39A or 40)
>>> - Astranis (39A or 40)
>>> - O3b MPower 5 & 6 (39A or 40)
>>>
>>> July:
>>> - Galaxy 37 (39A or 40)
>>> - USSF-52 (39A)
>>> - Euclid (39A or 40)
>>> - USSF-36 (39A or 40)
>>> - Thuraya 4-NGS (39A or 40)
>>>
>>> August:
>>> - Crew 7 (39A)
>>> - Echostar 24 (39A)
>>>
>>> Sept:
>>> - Axiom 3 (39A)
>>> - Polaris Dawn (39A)
>>> - Ovzon 3 (39A or 40)
>>>
>>> On Wed, May 3, 2023 at 2:19 PM Dave Taht via Starlink <
>>> starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:
>>>
>>>> Ḿind boggling.
>>>>
>>>> https://twitter.com/VirtuallyNathan/status/1653867999919751169
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> --
>>>> Podcast:
>>>> https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7058793910227111937/
>>>> Dave Täht CSO, LibreQos
>>>> _______________________________________________
>>>> Starlink mailing list
>>>> Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
>>>> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink
>>>>
>>> _______________________________________________
>> Starlink mailing list
>> Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
>> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink
>
>
>
>

Re: [Starlink] 9 starlink flights planned for june

[Dave Taht]

To break the bottlenecks you describe below, it seems like either
export to countries otherwise attempting their own massive launch
programs, or leverage of bases the USA has around the world, would be
needed.

On Wed, May 3, 2023 at 6:34 PM David Lang <david@lang.hm> wrote:
>
> On Wed, 3 May 2023, Dave Taht wrote:
>
> > Thx as always for ever more links to information. They recently
> > attempted launch from two pads on nearly the same day, I am wondering
> > what the turnaround time is for boosters these days, and how much
> > inventory they have. If they can improve their cycle time, 9/month
> > seems achievable on the 3 pads they have, aside from conflicts with
> > other launches.
>
> rykllan posts infographics for most launches (not just SpaceX) but for SpaceX
> launches she shows the history of the booster used, including the turnaround
> time for each launch
>
> https://twitter.com/_rykllan
>
> for tonight's launch, the refurb times have been 47, 44, 55, 55 48, 250 days
> (going back in time)
>
> SpaceX just leased SLC-6 at Vandenberg (Shuttle, Delta pad) and has stated that
> their plan is to set it up to be able to launch the Falcon Heavy and Falcon 9
>
> I think their biggest limiting factors are pad availability and landing barge
> availability.
>
> > Random thought - other launch sites long term? This was built to great
> > fanfare a while back
> >
> > https://www.spaceportamerica.com/business/lease-build/
>
> Virgin Galactic has had a pause on their flights for a while. I understand that
> they are soon going to do another employee only flight, but then expect to be
> able to start carrying paying customers
>
> > Also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guiana_Space_Centre
>
> It's heavily used by the ESA, but with the fallout from the Ukraine war, ESA
> lost access to Russian rockets that were launched out of there. They are almost
> out of Ariane 5 rockets to launch from there. Ariane 6 was supposed to fly in
> 2020, but they are now hoping to launch the first one late this year (or next
> year)
>
> > And: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kwajalein_Atoll
>
> Pegasus is pretty much dead, there was a mission a couple years ago that was
> carefully tailored to be a match for the Pegasus @$25m launch cost, but SpaceX
> won the bid and used a dedicated Falcon 9 (it's not public what the winning bid
> cost, but we can infer from the Pegasus marketing material and their failure to
> win the bid)
>
> I think that's just too far from the ability to generate fuel for any serious
> launch capacity.
>
> David Lang
>
> >
> >
> >>
> >> David Lang
> >>
> >>
> >> On Wed, 3 May 2023, Nathan Owens via Starlink wrote:
> >>
> >>> FWIW, many of those are likely to slip, there are a number of commercial
> >>> launches in June/July. Depends if they re-shuffle Group 6 ahead of other
> >>> shells.
> >>>
> >>> Upcoming non-starlink launches from the cape:
> >>>
> >>> May:
> >>> - Arabsat 7A (SLC-40)
> >>>
> >>> June:
> >>> - CRS-28 (LC-39A)
> >>> - WorldView Legion 1 & 2 (SLC-40)
> >>> - Axiom 2 (LC-39A), TBD
> >>> - Turksat 6A (39A or 40)
> >>> - Astranis (39A or 40)
> >>> - O3b MPower 5 & 6 (39A or 40)
> >>>
> >>> July:
> >>> - Galaxy 37 (39A or 40)
> >>> - USSF-52 (39A)
> >>> - Euclid (39A or 40)
> >>> - USSF-36 (39A or 40)
> >>> - Thuraya 4-NGS (39A or 40)
> >>>
> >>> August:
> >>> - Crew 7 (39A)
> >>> - Echostar 24 (39A)
> >>>
> >>> Sept:
> >>> - Axiom 3 (39A)
> >>> - Polaris Dawn (39A)
> >>> - Ovzon 3 (39A or 40)
> >>>
> >>> On Wed, May 3, 2023 at 2:19 PM Dave Taht via Starlink <
> >>> starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:
> >>>
> >>>> Ḿind boggling.
> >>>>
> >>>> https://twitter.com/VirtuallyNathan/status/1653867999919751169
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>> --
> >>>> Podcast:
> >>>> https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7058793910227111937/
> >>>> Dave Täht CSO, LibreQos
> >>>> _______________________________________________
> >>>> Starlink mailing list
> >>>> Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
> >>>> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink
> >>>>
> >>> _______________________________________________
> >> Starlink mailing list
> >> Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
> >> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink
> >
> >
> >
> >



-- 
Podcast: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7058793910227111937/
Dave Täht CSO, LibreQos

Re: [Starlink] 9 starlink flights planned for june

[David Lang]

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Adding SLC-6 will help the pad congestion, we haven't heard of them contracting 
for a 4th landing barge yet.

David Lang

On Thu, 4 May 2023, Dave Taht wrote:

> To break the bottlenecks you describe below, it seems like either
> export to countries otherwise attempting their own massive launch
> programs, or leverage of bases the USA has around the world, would be
> needed.
>
> On Wed, May 3, 2023 at 6:34 PM David Lang <david@lang.hm> wrote:
>>
>> On Wed, 3 May 2023, Dave Taht wrote:
>>
>>> Thx as always for ever more links to information. They recently
>>> attempted launch from two pads on nearly the same day, I am wondering
>>> what the turnaround time is for boosters these days, and how much
>>> inventory they have. If they can improve their cycle time, 9/month
>>> seems achievable on the 3 pads they have, aside from conflicts with
>>> other launches.
>>
>> rykllan posts infographics for most launches (not just SpaceX) but for SpaceX
>> launches she shows the history of the booster used, including the turnaround
>> time for each launch
>>
>> https://twitter.com/_rykllan
>>
>> for tonight's launch, the refurb times have been 47, 44, 55, 55 48, 250 days
>> (going back in time)
>>
>> SpaceX just leased SLC-6 at Vandenberg (Shuttle, Delta pad) and has stated that
>> their plan is to set it up to be able to launch the Falcon Heavy and Falcon 9
>>
>> I think their biggest limiting factors are pad availability and landing barge
>> availability.
>>
>>> Random thought - other launch sites long term? This was built to great
>>> fanfare a while back
>>>
>>> https://www.spaceportamerica.com/business/lease-build/
>>
>> Virgin Galactic has had a pause on their flights for a while. I understand that
>> they are soon going to do another employee only flight, but then expect to be
>> able to start carrying paying customers
>>
>>> Also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guiana_Space_Centre
>>
>> It's heavily used by the ESA, but with the fallout from the Ukraine war, ESA
>> lost access to Russian rockets that were launched out of there. They are almost
>> out of Ariane 5 rockets to launch from there. Ariane 6 was supposed to fly in
>> 2020, but they are now hoping to launch the first one late this year (or next
>> year)
>>
>>> And: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kwajalein_Atoll
>>
>> Pegasus is pretty much dead, there was a mission a couple years ago that was
>> carefully tailored to be a match for the Pegasus @$25m launch cost, but SpaceX
>> won the bid and used a dedicated Falcon 9 (it's not public what the winning bid
>> cost, but we can infer from the Pegasus marketing material and their failure to
>> win the bid)
>>
>> I think that's just too far from the ability to generate fuel for any serious
>> launch capacity.
>>
>> David Lang
>>
>>>
>>>
>>>>
>>>> David Lang
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Wed, 3 May 2023, Nathan Owens via Starlink wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> FWIW, many of those are likely to slip, there are a number of commercial
>>>>> launches in June/July. Depends if they re-shuffle Group 6 ahead of other
>>>>> shells.
>>>>>
>>>>> Upcoming non-starlink launches from the cape:
>>>>>
>>>>> May:
>>>>> - Arabsat 7A (SLC-40)
>>>>>
>>>>> June:
>>>>> - CRS-28 (LC-39A)
>>>>> - WorldView Legion 1 & 2 (SLC-40)
>>>>> - Axiom 2 (LC-39A), TBD
>>>>> - Turksat 6A (39A or 40)
>>>>> - Astranis (39A or 40)
>>>>> - O3b MPower 5 & 6 (39A or 40)
>>>>>
>>>>> July:
>>>>> - Galaxy 37 (39A or 40)
>>>>> - USSF-52 (39A)
>>>>> - Euclid (39A or 40)
>>>>> - USSF-36 (39A or 40)
>>>>> - Thuraya 4-NGS (39A or 40)
>>>>>
>>>>> August:
>>>>> - Crew 7 (39A)
>>>>> - Echostar 24 (39A)
>>>>>
>>>>> Sept:
>>>>> - Axiom 3 (39A)
>>>>> - Polaris Dawn (39A)
>>>>> - Ovzon 3 (39A or 40)
>>>>>
>>>>> On Wed, May 3, 2023 at 2:19 PM Dave Taht via Starlink <
>>>>> starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> Ḿind boggling.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> https://twitter.com/VirtuallyNathan/status/1653867999919751169
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> --
>>>>>> Podcast:
>>>>>> https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7058793910227111937/
>>>>>> Dave Täht CSO, LibreQos
>>>>>> _______________________________________________
>>>>>> Starlink mailing list
>>>>>> Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
>>>>>> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink
>>>>>>
>>>>> _______________________________________________
>>>> Starlink mailing list
>>>> Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
>>>> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>
>
>
>