thanks for sharing this analysis with which I resonate. I doubt that the LEO constellations will scale to the same extent that ground-based cellular systems have. However, they will take some traffic. Prices might also be an issue. Interestingly, video conferencing over the Internet is a substitute for traditional telephony and comes naturally thanks to the digital nature of the transmission. v On Wed, Jan 29, 2025 at 7:30 AM Hesham ElBakoury via Starlink < starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote: > > ---------- Forwarded message --------- > From: John Strand > Date: Wed, Jan 29, 2025, 4:23 AM > Subject: Here is the first edition of the report: Will LEO Satellite > Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete? > To: > > > Dear Colleague, > > > > Here is the first edition of the report: *“Will LEO Satellite > Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?”* > The report is a part of a signature series in Strand Consult´s Global > Project for Business Models for Broadband Cost Recovery > . > > > > This new report offers a comprehensive analysis of the role of Low-Earth > Orbit (LEO) satellites in the telecommunications industry. It examines the > advancements in satellite technology, the challenges in achieving service > parity with terrestrial networks, and the implications for global > connectivity. It explores the technical, economic, and regulatory factors > shaping the deployment of Direct-to-Cell satellite services and evaluates > whether these networks can complement or replace traditional cellular > infrastructure. > > > > This report aims to illuminate the forces driving developments in LEO > satellite networks, the challenges they face, and how these technologies > will likely shape the telecommunications industry's future. It aims to > provide inspiration and insights that can be used to frame discussions > about the trends and transformations affecting connectivity on a global > scale. > > > > When reading recent media and comments on various media postings, one can > quickly get the impression that satellites will replace traditional mobile > networks. This narrative often simplifies a complex issue, creating the > perception that satellite technology is a universal solution to global > connectivity challenges. However, a more pragmatic view reveals that > satellite networks like those operated by Starlink offer revolutionary > opportunities but are unlikely to make terrestrial mobile networks > obsolete. Instead, these technologies will coexist, each serving distinct > roles in the communication ecosystem. > > > > There are many mobile telecom operators which fear that low earth orbit > (LEO) satellite networks like Starlink and others could impact their > business in a negative way like over the top (OTT) providers. Indeed, there > is a concern about traffic and revenue moving away from mobile networks to > providers which do not have the same regulatory obligations or cost > structure. For example, in some countries, some LEO satellite providers do > not pay for the use of radio spectrum. These are important issues to > examine in their short, medium and long term impacts. > > > > Strand Consult’s global project for Broadband Cost Recovery and Business > Models examines > the challenges for mobile telecom operators to build and run networks and > the set of solutions to improve return on investment. A key region > impacted by LEO satellites is the Caribbean. Strand Consult’s report *“Gigabit > Caribbean: Closing the Investment Gap in Fixed and Mobile Networks” > > *describes the inherent challenge to deliver return on investment in > remote areas with limited population and in the face of growing traffic > from outside providers which contribute zero financially to the local > economy. LEO satellites may be a double-edged sword in that they may > provide connectivity in an emergency, but they do not conform to local > regulatory requirements, nor do they participate locally financially. The > issue is also relevant for rural broadband providers in the USA which > Strand Consult documented in its report “Broadband Cost Recovery: A Study > of Business Models for 50 Broadband Providers In 24 US States.” > > > > > *The Satellite Race to Reach the Phone.* > > > > Among the various players in the Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite market, > Starlink , led > by Elon Musk’s SpaceX, has emerged as the frontrunner. With a network of > almost 7,000 satellites operating, 300+ (2nd generation or Gen2) > satellites have Direct-to-Cell capabilities > . > SpaceX's spectrum regulatory approach outside the U.S. has been criticized > for not always adhering to local licensing frameworks (e.g., cases in > India, France, and South Africa). Its reliance on spectrum that local > regulators have not officially granted can create tensions with governments > and local telecom providers. Starlink operates a global satellite network > with thousands of satellites covering areas without always having lawful > access to the spectrum on which it provides services. > > > > This is an even more significant challenge regarding the regular cellular > spectrum used for traditional mobile cellular services licensed and used by > local telecommunication companies. Thus, it requires, at least, the > satellite operator to collaborate locally with telco operators who have the > usage rights of the cellular spectrum of interest. Despite these > challenges, Starlink’s aggressive strategy and innovative technology have > placed it light years ahead of competitors like Amazon’s Kuiper > and Eutelsat’s > OneWeb . As of January 2025, Amazon's Project Kuiper > has not yet launched > > any operational satellites, including those with Direct-to-Cell (D2C) > capabilities. The project is still in development, with plans to deploy a > constellation of 3,236 LEO satellites to provide global broadband coverage. > > > > One of the most remarkable aspects of Starlink’s success is its ability to > build a functional global network without initial access to the necessary > spectrum. This bold approach has drawn comparisons to Jeff Bezos’ Kuiper > project, with Strand Consult humorously observing that while Bezos is still > setting up a “burger bar,” Musk is already running an “interstellar > McDonald’s. > > In the report you can read about the companies that are advancing D2C > connectivity through LEO satellite constellations, aiming to connect > standard mobile devices directly to satellites. > > > > Among them, AST SpaceMobile > has launched > five operational satellites, detailed in FCC filings, to deliver 4G and 5G > services globally, with plans to expand its network with up to 243 > satellites. AST SpaceMobile's advanced phased-array antenna, BlueWalker 3 > , is one of > the most powerful in the industry required to deliver good quality services > to unmodified cellular consumer devices. Similarly, Lynk Global > has deployed > satellites to provide coverage in remote areas, emphasizing partnerships > with telecom operators and regulatory approvals. > > > > Geespace , part of Geely Technology Group, has > launched 30 satellites in China and plans to expand to 72 by 2025, > targeting global broadband and D2C capabilities. The Qianfan ("Thousand > Sails") constellation > , > in intent and capabilities closest to SpaceX, is another Chinese initiative > that has deployed 54 satellites and aims for over 15,000 by 2030, > positioning itself as a major player in satellite-based communications. US > and Chinese initiatives drive significant advancements in D2C technology, > integrating satellite connectivity into everyday communications and > addressing global coverage challenges. > > > > *Some Takeaways.* > > > > Direct-to-Cell LEO satellite networks face considerable technology hurdles > in providing services comparable to terrestrial cellular networks. > > > > - *They must overcome substantial free-space path loss* and ensure > uplink connectivity from low-power mobile devices with omnidirectional > antennas. > - Cellular devices transmit at low power (typically 23–30 dBm), making > it *very challenging for uplink cellular signals* to reach satellites > in LEO at 300–1,200 km altitudes, particularly if the cellular device is > indoor. > - Uplink signals from multiple devices within a satellite beam area > can overlap, creating *interference that challenges the satellite’s > ability to separate and process individual uplink signals*. > - *Must address bandwidth limitations* and efficiently reuse spectrum > while minimizing interference with terrestrial and other satellite networks. > - Scaling globally may *require satellites to carry varied payload > configurations to accommodate regional spectrum requirements*, > increasing technical complexity and deployment expenses. > - Operating on terrestrial frequencies *necessitates dynamic spectrum > sharing and interference mitigation strategies*, especially in densely > populated areas, limiting coverage efficiency and capacity. > - > > On the regulatory front, integrating D2C satellite services into existing > mobile ecosystems is complex. Spectrum licensing is a key issue, as > satellite operators must either share frequencies already allocated to > terrestrial mobile operators or secure dedicated satellite spectrum. > > > > - *Securing access to shared or dedicated spectrum*, particularly > negotiating with terrestrial operators to use licensed frequencies. > - *Avoiding interference* between satellite and terrestrial networks > requires detailed agreements and advanced spectrum management techniques. > - *Navigating fragmented regulatory frameworks* in Europe, where > national licensing requirements vary significantly. > - The high administrative and operational *burden of scaling globally* diminishes > economic benefits, particularly in regions where terrestrial networks > already dominate. > > > > The idea of D2C-capable satellite networks making terrestrial cellular > networks obsolete is ambitious but fraught with practical limitations. > While LEO satellites offer unparalleled reach in remote and underserved > areas, they struggle to match terrestrial networks’ capacity, reliability, > and low latency in urban and suburban environments. The high density of > base stations in terrestrial networks enables them to handle far greater > traffic volumes, especially for data-intensive applications. > > > > The regulatory and operational constraints surrounding using terrestrial > mobile frequencies for D2C services severely limit scalability. This > fragmentation makes it difficult to achieve global coverage seamlessly and > increases operational and economic inefficiencies. While D2C services hold > promise for addressing connectivity gaps in remote areas, their ability to > scale as a comprehensive alternative to terrestrial networks is hampered by > these challenges. Unless global regulatory harmonization or innovative > technical solutions emerge, D2C networks will likely remain a > complementary, sub-scale solution rather than a standalone replacement for > terrestrial mobile networks. > > > > The report *"Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make > Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?"* is valuable for mobile operators > and their shareholders, policymakers, security and defense analysts, > network engineers, and other professionals. > > > > Let me know your feedback and questions. > > > > Best regards, > > > > > > John Strand > > > > > > Strand Consult is an independent, privately owned consultancy company. Our > main focus is in the wireless sector, what it looks like, how it is > developing and how it influences a number of other sectors. Through our > research, reports, workshops and consulting, we help create and expand our > customers’ revenue streams by maximising the use of all the new > possibilities and opportunities that arise with new technologies and > business strategies. About Strand Consult > > > > Our primary customers are national and international mobile operators and > our list of customers currently includes over 170 mobile operators spread > across Europe, South America, North America, Australia, Asia and Africa. > Based on our research and work with mobile operators we additionally help > many customers in the technology industry and the media sector who want to > learn more about how the telecom industry is influencing their industry. > > > > We are regarded as one of the leading authorities on mobile technologies, > business and revenue models and distribution strategies. Our reports are > both strategic and cross-disciplinary in their outlook. They do not focus > on a single area, but always examine subjects from five different angles; > operators, technology providers, distribution, content providers and which > existing or new business strategies will have the greatest probability of > being successful. Most of our customers have saved a great deal of money on > consultancy services by purchasing and using our strategic reports. > > > > Strand Consult is the supplier of some of the most sought after lecturers > in the mobile world. We frequently speak at a great number of the > International conferences about the mobile and media world and how they > will develop in the future. 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