[Starlink] Re: Starlink and Iran

Ulrich Speidel
2026-01-15T11:16:47Z

On 15/01/2026 11:44 pm, Inemesit Affia wrote:
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> Jan 15, 2026 11:31:04 AM Ulrich Speidel <u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz>:
>
> On 15/01/2026 11:06 pm, Inemesit Affia wrote:
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> Wrt to DTC, you'll need SIM's, e-SIM or physical. Much easier
> to make and ship than regular Starlink receiver. 4G requires
> mutual authentication.
>
>
> Indeed, but that doesn't address problems related to user density
> - you really can't support tens of thousands of people in a city
> that way. It really only works for a handful of folks in a larger
> area at a time. It's not an easily scalable solution.
>
>
> You don't need to help everyone to be of help.

Indeed. There may be the odd satellite TXT that could be sent, and it
might be of help. But that's not what I'm talking about. It's language
like the sample below that I read today from a well known NGO movement:

> This solution *leverages satellite technology that can connect
> directly to ordinary mobile phones* – no dishes or internet needed,
> enabling millions of Iranians to send urgent messages, even during
> this blackout. *All that’s missing is the political green light to
> switch it on.*
This is patently rubbish!

Even the Independent writes:

> There are other ways Musk’s company could provide connectivity to a
> far larger number of people across Iran – but it would be costly, and
> it is unclear how it would be funded.
Now the context in which this paragraph stands makes it clear that the
"far larger number" is that of the people who would be able to use D2C
compared to the number using Dishys. That's equally rubbish.

>
>
>
>
>
> One NZ currently handles perhaps a few thousand TXT messages (if
> that many) via satellite a day in a country about 1/6th of the
> area of Iran and are actively rationing the service by making it a
> premium product even though few people can actually physically use
> it because terrestrial coverage is so good. This simply doesn't
> scale to anywhere near the needs of 90M+ Iranians, let alone in a
> few weeks.
>
>
> There's more spectrum to use if the towers are switched off as
> opposed to not terminating calls.
>
> That's supposing someone will do SpaceX a favour and switch the
> local base stations off in large numbers. Not realistic.
>
>
> I don't think cell providers will keep antennas on unless they are
> asked to. That's money for power gone. Maybe even fuel given the power
> outages going on.
I think they might just be asked to do exactly that, precisely to ensure
phones associate with their networks and that spectrum is taken. And
fuel isn't in short supply in Iran.
>
>
> I know they may have network slices or whitelists of government users
> they serve, but otherwise
Indeed.
>
>
> Getting e-Sims in is the easy part, getting the rest to work is
> the hard bit. D2C for Iran is simply a non-starter - whatever is
> there in terms of Dishys already dwarfs it in terms of capacity by
> orders of magnitude.
>
>
> There are particular benefits. That you haven't considered. Like the
> fact the channel is enough for texting and that's enough for the
> activists that want it. Doesn't have to serve everyone to help everyone.
The activists are mostly in town, where they'd be connecting /
interfered with by the terrestrial networks. I suppose that hardy ones
could travel for dozens of miles to zones outside terrestrial coverage
to do their satellite text thing, but it's probably easier and faster to
find someone with a Dishy in Tehran who can help dispatch a much larger
message or video that way.
>
>
> And it seems you have no idea that T-Mobile has Twitter and WhatsApp
> working. Disable video with the co-operation of the app makers allowed
> of they are using a particular IP range and you have a working tool
> for the aforementioned goals.

Actually I do ... they operate pretty much in lockstep with SpaceX's
other mobile partners. Note I mentioned the few premium phones on which
"data" also works. In NZ, these are, as of today:

* Most iPhones from 13 mini upwards
* Samsung Galaxy Z Fold7, Flip7, Flip 7FE

I'm not sure how many of these you'd find in Iran right now. But maybe
it can be extended to other models there.

The apps you can use here are pretty much the same as for T-Mobile.

>
> But they should have planned this ages ago.
>
>
> Iranian Internet users do need hope, but a lot of what's
> circulating out there at the moment is hype and people's
> imagination having gone wild. A lot of that is giving false hope,
> and that's probably the last thing people need right now.
>
> --
> ****************************************************************
> Dr. Ulrich Speidel
>
> School of Computer Science
>
> Room 303S.594 (City Campus)
>
> The University of Auckland
> u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz
> http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/
> ****************************************************************
>
>
>
--
****************************************************************
Dr. Ulrich Speidel

School of Computer Science

Room 303S.594 (City Campus)

The University of Auckland
u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz
http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/
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