From mboxrd@z Thu Jan 1 00:00:00 1970 Return-Path: Received: from mail-qt1-x82c.google.com (mail-qt1-x82c.google.com [IPv6:2607:f8b0:4864:20::82c]) (using TLSv1.2 with cipher ECDHE-RSA-AES128-GCM-SHA256 (128/128 bits)) (No client certificate requested) by lists.bufferbloat.net (Postfix) with ESMTPS id 6D1883B29D for ; Wed, 28 Aug 2024 16:29:17 -0400 (EDT) Received: by mail-qt1-x82c.google.com with SMTP id d75a77b69052e-454b3d89a18so39169741cf.2 for ; Wed, 28 Aug 2024 13:29:17 -0700 (PDT) DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=gmail.com; s=20230601; t=1724876957; x=1725481757; darn=lists.bufferbloat.net; h=cc:to:subject:message-id:date:from:in-reply-to:references :mime-version:from:to:cc:subject:date:message-id:reply-to; bh=IYrz/94HSi5dhUwR8vtW53g4JttkGnddqIyXFQACZLs=; b=DJr5KxpWT9HwqgIWeiSRvNBT+E5JcbKJXr8A8JZz8FyTC8kgGO9zrTW/d69lxBs1ZJ etr01GAt8MbBmyGmnTkvAZPb0VydMx11kEpXDLvN172dpnhgbAvkZTTN0MypxghND6Oa jgN+9LaTLPcB/Gd9xYyCGu//oRJInd/hQvWWSpc/k8OkvtcJbVG7nU6ri4bgHlIeOKtW 7MRU0c06T1MPn1sAUscP39Iw3usOp3OQNxsQcRAzFTchJAYxOkHtJNnRXR5pEQ24JNIH UWKQzWXaIwKTQ5wFuzkIgRdmrx7pKtHbvBHdkH+1s4+J9V4L3Igf5HaeqVFxXC9aalKM P+gw== X-Google-DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=1e100.net; s=20230601; t=1724876957; x=1725481757; h=cc:to:subject:message-id:date:from:in-reply-to:references :mime-version:x-gm-message-state:from:to:cc:subject:date:message-id :reply-to; bh=IYrz/94HSi5dhUwR8vtW53g4JttkGnddqIyXFQACZLs=; b=P+XxHgDEWowZ/SjXUYOSp0h/VHf8/AJsicFxOsS+vdssmZXbd4j7vW2BbKEYWyKLIY 05FZPRDd4Ptyv88XaAUpB1tnsyaSivXtIeRHGIPGrSFeTXg//8ukej7gV/P9w/95Twj6 RNJvpOG90zm1rveKY9UOz2ahaMte8KFENp6d7lLzNe5ETfKuYpsdXPaZbtp+Gsxf9n3G j46YRRGwAtAgC43wRGK5GVjfpMBafmSmqZbZVFanFJSCNt+BjrB+kG/XoLvn9BOnXCE3 VIah4YzdglqBoNJAJ2THYkgY2qDNgvgmpGRhL+0M9NZ7AAbuNRPtyWWxO9V6+nDYcBF4 TQQA== X-Forwarded-Encrypted: i=1; AJvYcCXsoJ4C8LUTofsy5bdGTueArKbIktu2vIT40XQ49LrUePg4aJ04qIwpyiJxMdSwdgxwXxCX43NkFg==@lists.bufferbloat.net X-Gm-Message-State: AOJu0Yx/vc+qoRQ+tuJNv5Xkw5NUqSbiE4H71KaKQnqrbe74LbJDi9Hc l0E2KKVgVTBXewlDFG+tqwksCe+k9sr/sfVhm4KPNc2ei3Wl+DtysYqj+AIeTYstCSEsX0cx40Z uUrRphs2j0c33Ts6858if6F6A1Qc= X-Google-Smtp-Source: AGHT+IEXU+e16iIsQBlNXuEJdBke5P2K7g1JPfPVXWYr2neAWWI/cZHpZS1Dggj60FcxPLm/+cU4uTZfgc71qQv5uUk= X-Received: by 2002:a05:622a:5a18:b0:44f:e905:e606 with SMTP id d75a77b69052e-4567f52eab5mr6935191cf.25.1724876956574; Wed, 28 Aug 2024 13:29:16 -0700 (PDT) MIME-Version: 1.0 References: In-Reply-To: From: Frantisek Borsik Date: Wed, 28 Aug 2024 22:28:40 +0200 Message-ID: To: David Lang , Dave Taht via Starlink Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="00000000000047322a0620c436c3" Subject: Re: [Starlink] Formidable SpaceX Challenger X-BeenThere: starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.20 Precedence: list List-Id: "Starlink has bufferbloat. Bad." List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 28 Aug 2024 20:29:17 -0000 --00000000000047322a0620c436c3 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable "RFA is working on expendable designs, but using super cheap parts (automotive grade parts, not aerospace parts), which sounds dangerous at first, but if you think about it, cheap automotive grade parts are better quality (more consistant dimensions and materials) than manually milled space parts were back in the '60s." True that. I started to work only in the early 2000s and it was in automotive. Imagine my shock, when I transitioned into general aviation and I found out that tolerances etc were less strict than in automotive. It's really counterintuitive, but it's like that. All the best, Frank Frantisek (Frank) Borsik https://www.linkedin.com/in/frantisekborsik Signal, Telegram, WhatsApp: +421919416714 iMessage, mobile: +420775230885 Skype: casioa5302ca frantisek.borsik@gmail.com On Wed, Aug 28, 2024 at 5:01=E2=80=AFPM David Lang via Starlink < starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote: > Rocket Labs is aiming for the small/medium satellite market where > customers > don't want to pay for a dedicated flight of a F9, and don't want to wait > for a > transporter rideshare program (either because of schedule or to get a > specific > orbit). Right now with Electron, they can launch 500-700Kg to orbit vs th= e > F9 > 13,000 rtls, 18,000 drone ship, 23,000 expended (falcon heavy can get to > 68,000 > expendable) > > Their next rocket (Neutron) will be a reusable 1st stage and super-cheap > 2nd > stage with an early design goal of 13,000 drone ship landing payload. It > could > be real competition to the F9 (even limited to smaller payloads) > > Rocket Labs is one of the few companies that I expect to survive (as they > are > working on a partially reusable rocket), but they will > be a 2nd or 3rd tier provider. > > with the exception of RFA (see below), I don't see any expendable rockets > surviving very long > > ULA talks about possibly modifying a Vulcan to break the engines off the > first > stage and landing them, then building a new 1st stage for the next flight > (and > 2nd stage). Their target is to eventually hit 24 launches/year. > > RFA is working on expendable designs, but using super cheap parts > (automotive > grade parts, not aerospace parts), which sounds dangerous at first, but i= f > you > think about it, cheap automotive grade parts are better quality (more > consistant dimensions and materials) than manually milled space parts wer= e > back > in the '60s. > > Stoke is working on a fully reusable rocket. It's a very interesting > design, but > their current design is for 5,000kg payload capacity (if this design > works, they > may scape up) > > Blue Origin is saying they may fly New Glen as early as October. It's 1st > stage > is designed to land, and per a recent interview, Jeff Bezos has two teams > working on the 2nd stage, one with the focus of building a reusable 2nd > stage so > efficient it makes no sense to use an expendable one, and the other team > working > on an expendable 2nd stage so cheap it doesn't make sense to use an > expendable > one. If New Glen works, it will be in the same class as a Falcon Heavy > with a > design payload of 45,000kg > > SpaceX Starship is designed to be fully reusable and have a payload > capacity of > 100,000-200,000kg with launch costs in the same ballpark as Neutron > > A few years ago Elon Musk said that fuel for a Starship would run around > $1m/launch and launch pad, manpower, permits, etc run another $1m. Neutro= n > needs less fuel, but the expendable 2nd stage costs, and (more importantl= y) > limits the flight rate to the 2nd stage production rate. A lower flight > rate > would be fewer flights to spread the fixed costs (manpower, faciliites) > across. > So it's a toss-up which would end up cheaper. > > David Lang > > > > On Wed, 28 Aug 2024, Hesham ElBakoury via Starlink wrote: > > > Date: Wed, 28 Aug 2024 04:48:44 -0700 > > From: Hesham ElBakoury via Starlink > > Reply-To: Hesham ElBakoury > > To: Dave Taht via Starlink > > Subject: [Starlink] Formidable SpaceX Challenger > > > > "Elon Musk may soon face a formidable challenger in the space industry > > < > https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/08/40540099/elon-musk-promised-to-make-f= ully-reusable-rockets-13-years-ago-today-spacexs-starship-is-designed-to > > > > . Peter Beck, the CEO of Rocket Lab USA, Inc. RKLB, is preparing to > launch > > a new, larger rocket that could rival Musk=E2=80=99s SpaceX and potenti= ally > disrupt > > the billionaire=E2=80=99s space dominance." > > > > > https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/08/40571227/while-elon-musk-is-busy-taki= ng-a-dig-at-boeing-after-starliner-fails-to-bring-astronauts-back-from-i > > > > > > Hesham > >_______________________________________________ > Starlink mailing list > Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net > https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink > --00000000000047322a0620c436c3 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
"RFA is working on expendable designs, but using supe= r cheap parts (automotive=C2=A0=
grade parts, not aerospace parts), which sounds dangerous at fir= st, but if you=C2=A0
= think about it, cheap automotive grade parts are better quality (more=C2=A0
consistant dimension= s and materials) than manually milled space parts were back=C2=A0
in the '60s."
True that. I started to work only in the early 2000s and it was= in automotive. Imagine my shock, when I transitioned into general aviation= and I found out that tolerances etc were less strict than in automotive. I= t's really counterintuitive, but it's like that.


All the best,

Frank

<= p class=3D"MsoNormal" style=3D"color:rgb(34,34,34)">

Frantisek (Frank) Borsik=

= =C2=A0

https://www.linkedin.com/in/frantisekborsik=

Signal,= Telegram, WhatsApp: +421919416714=C2=A0

iMessage, mobile: +420775230885<= u>

Skype: casio= a5302ca

frantisek.borsik@gmail.com

=


On We= d, Aug 28, 2024 at 5:01=E2=80=AFPM David Lang via Starlink <starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net>= ; wrote:
Rocket Labs is aiming for the small/medi= um satellite market where customers
don't want to pay for a dedicated flight of a F9, and don't want to= wait for a
transporter rideshare program (either because of schedule or to get a speci= fic
orbit). Right now with Electron, they can launch 500-700Kg to orbit vs the = F9
13,000 rtls, 18,000 drone ship, 23,000 expended (falcon heavy can get to 68= ,000
expendable)

Their next rocket (Neutron) will be a reusable 1st stage and super-cheap 2n= d
stage with an early design goal of 13,000 drone ship landing payload. It co= uld
be real competition to the F9 (even limited to smaller payloads)

Rocket Labs is one of the few companies that I expect to survive (as they a= re
working on a partially reusable rocket), but they will
be a 2nd or 3rd tier provider.

with the exception of RFA (see below), I don't see any expendable rocke= ts
surviving very long

ULA talks about possibly modifying a Vulcan to break the engines off the fi= rst
stage and landing them, then building a new 1st stage for the next flight (= and
2nd stage). Their target is to eventually hit 24 launches/year.

RFA is working on expendable designs, but using super cheap parts (automoti= ve
grade parts, not aerospace parts), which sounds dangerous at first, but if = you
think about it, cheap automotive grade parts are better quality (more
consistant dimensions and materials) than manually milled space parts were = back
in the '60s.

Stoke is working on a fully reusable rocket. It's a very interesting de= sign, but
their current design is for 5,000kg payload capacity (if this design works,= they
may scape up)

Blue Origin is saying they may fly New Glen as early as October. It's 1= st stage
is designed to land, and per a recent interview, Jeff Bezos has two teams <= br> working on the 2nd stage, one with the focus of building a reusable 2nd sta= ge so
efficient it makes no sense to use an expendable one, and the other team wo= rking
on an expendable 2nd stage so cheap it doesn't make sense to use an exp= endable
one. If New Glen works, it will be in the same class as a Falcon Heavy with= a
design payload of 45,000kg

SpaceX Starship is designed to be fully reusable and have a payload capacit= y of
100,000-200,000kg with launch costs in the same ballpark as Neutron

A few years ago Elon Musk said that fuel for a Starship would run around $1m/launch and launch pad, manpower, permits, etc run another $1m. Neutron =
needs less fuel, but the expendable 2nd stage costs, and (more importantly)=
limits the flight rate to the 2nd stage production rate. A lower flight rat= e
would be fewer flights to spread the fixed costs (manpower, faciliites) acr= oss.
So it's a toss-up which would end up cheaper.

David Lang



On Wed, 28 Aug 2024, Hesham ElBakoury via Starlink wrote:

> Date: Wed, 28 Aug 2024 04:48:44 -0700
> From: Hesham ElBakoury via Starlink <starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net>= ;
> Reply-To: Hesham ElBakoury <helbakoury@gmail.com>
> To: Dave Taht via Starlink <starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net>
> Subject: [Starlink] Formidable SpaceX Challenger
>
> "Elon Musk may soon face a formidable challenger in the space ind= ustry
> <https://www.benzinga.= com/news/24/08/40540099/elon-musk-promised-to-make-fully-reusable-rockets-1= 3-years-ago-today-spacexs-starship-is-designed-to>
> . Peter Beck, the CEO of Rocket Lab USA, Inc. RKLB, is preparing to la= unch
> a new, larger rocket that could rival Musk=E2=80=99s SpaceX and potent= ially disrupt
> the billionaire=E2=80=99s space dominance."
>
> https://www.benzinga.com/= news/24/08/40571227/while-elon-musk-is-busy-taking-a-dig-at-boeing-after-st= arliner-fails-to-bring-astronauts-back-from-i
>
>
> Hesham
>_______________________________________________
Starlink mailing list
Starlin= k@lists.bufferbloat.net
https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink
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