From mboxrd@z Thu Jan 1 00:00:00 1970 Return-Path: Received: from mail-vk1-xa2a.google.com (mail-vk1-xa2a.google.com [IPv6:2607:f8b0:4864:20::a2a]) (using TLSv1.2 with cipher ECDHE-RSA-AES128-GCM-SHA256 (128/128 bits)) (No client certificate requested) by lists.bufferbloat.net (Postfix) with ESMTPS id 46E8A3B2A4 for ; Thu, 3 Mar 2022 17:03:30 -0500 (EST) Received: by mail-vk1-xa2a.google.com with SMTP id k15so3383496vkn.13 for ; Thu, 03 Mar 2022 14:03:30 -0800 (PST) DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=nathan.io; s=google; h=mime-version:references:in-reply-to:from:date:message-id:subject:to :cc; bh=S7tnXgTCWQrBvxSzfu20tR/lxvixZ4OmCF4DsrD8y9U=; b=A8qqRsF7bbAoXCDr3DRYlbYoz5b2YjhjnmlZlpj+R6/Yb3Yv3t7a7OQQ+EFkuhCp0n wEq2FSrXQOal5vLiV2FRjlzD8lxz5D6/Z9tnJ7xfPC+mJISwF1VEODrW6BwhC2LTohiS z2nu+BbaQG57kG38Xqo5FuVGt4Q/T6wZlK0v4FLQ3ss4uqHXYaOTrb+VfnMyqbK79c2o GCrV6YlPjUY6qYfDdwJWuSmEQcGj0+sICz6jNptqNAVKRGpOzEZrWj7kedTRljQkX/J/ dMwD8ggwenwKEFA1VPBvDsiRXEBjsnw2Zx+oaWEXxca/K/5Tc811Hvzc8XsKmz+PcFns Ee8w== X-Google-DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=1e100.net; s=20210112; h=x-gm-message-state:mime-version:references:in-reply-to:from:date :message-id:subject:to:cc; bh=S7tnXgTCWQrBvxSzfu20tR/lxvixZ4OmCF4DsrD8y9U=; b=Qvt2YjjhKksDZsuCLUzxjShrCmElz/1wtnrgp+ngD6Urf19EgHiR1Mw+MdU3l8mrw2 7OH6ALgYXuNz7UF6tXi7XtMFH+t0UXLl9pgHLAV0hPQnj6eFb1PXUywtq/cqyRN5O8zm QgyK7ICyFAd/NztTyIlObK5A11BdUGGmUAexZlgRTpFEkhoFCWsaA5/1semc+Eaw1cQB TEQSpMxdOa7c7Dmnfv5s00lo+kFuyPS0lDxfwbbsf5iOhwK3ztupN3WiwdhEaraI/f1x A8tqiMnPnJQrMTDZYSl+acLS+R3R1aJPunHFCqvimUUSRpjIahf5i/YH1PCKG0HpNnd+ fv5g== X-Gm-Message-State: AOAM530WDXhnslKorsTa7bMX38G6Z045IW0SWN3mk1XBukjhbXhVPERW dmC86a2JYkmXacHcYuWwW2+3j5FHvdemWmajP7HGgA== X-Google-Smtp-Source: ABdhPJynRTwmptKfyalotVg728xpptfguX8ahSPC3vfgu+OhfoKZiShRMRo+cbjG8L1uuyFZNGSP7oCSKfh3FWO52VA= X-Received: by 2002:a05:6122:2208:b0:321:230a:53e1 with SMTP id bb8-20020a056122220800b00321230a53e1mr15883241vkb.25.1646345008275; Thu, 03 Mar 2022 14:03:28 -0800 (PST) MIME-Version: 1.0 References: <3s439o61-8o85-qq62-21s-36988o71o5r6@ynat.uz> In-Reply-To: From: Nathan Owens Date: Thu, 3 Mar 2022 14:03:17 -0800 Message-ID: To: Larry Press Cc: Mike Puchol , Dave Taht , David Lang , "starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net" Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="000000000000657b6c05d9579144" Subject: Re: [Starlink] spacex & ukraine X-BeenThere: starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.20 Precedence: list List-Id: "Starlink has bufferbloat. Bad." List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 03 Mar 2022 22:03:30 -0000 --000000000000657b6c05d9579144 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable They did enable mobile roaming in UA: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1499442132402130951 On Thu, Mar 3, 2022 at 2:01 PM Larry Press wrote: > > The balance, as David mentions, is on the value of the target vs. the > effort required to strike. > > The value of allowing government and resistance leaders and journalists t= o > communicate with each other and the outside world seems quite high, makin= g > the terminals attractive targets for the Russians. > > The cost of locating and striking a target also seems high -- Ukraine is > large and the terminals are portable. SpaceX is testing roaming without > re-registration in California/Nevada ( > https://circleid.com/posts/20220225-spacex-is-testing-starlink-roaming). > If SpaceX is listening -- consider enabling roaming in by the users in > Ukraine. > > Larry > > ------------------------------ > *From:* Starlink on behalf of > Mike Puchol > *Sent:* Wednesday, March 2, 2022 1:06 AM > *To:* Dave Taht ; David Lang > *Cc:* starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net > *Subject:* Re: [Starlink] spacex & ukraine > > Thank you Dave, the honor is mine to share a mailing list with so many > people who know way more than I do, about any subject I could point my > finger at, so I really appreciate it. > > On the subject at hand, ELINT/SIGINT and traffic analysis has evolved > massively over the years. In the mid-90s, the Chechen president was kille= d > by Russia with a missile strike, based on his satcom phone signals, which > included decoding the speech and matching to ensure they were hitting the > right target. > > The balance, as David mentions, is on the value of the target vs. the > effort required to strike. It is relatively easy to monitor cellular > networks, decrypt the traffic, and triangulate to almost automatically > target & strike. The same happens with VSAT, which operates against a fix= ed > satellite, so an aircraft high enough will be in the path between a large > portion of the ground and the satellite. > > With Starlink, the challenge is two-fold. You must be able to detect & > locate the 4.5=C2=BA wide uplink beam from a terminal, which constantly m= oves - > this can be done by measuring just the RF levels and using an ESA to find > the source. You must also ensure that the user of the terminal is a targe= t > valuable enough to justify a strike, which would be a lot harder, as you > need to keep a good enough SNR to demodulate, then you=E2=80=99d need to = decrypt. > Doing this in real time on an airborne platform is quite a challenge. > > Bottom line: unless Russia goes all-out against anyone using any form of > radio comms (phones, VSAT, satcom, Starlink, etc.) and they just blindly > strike any source of RF, a Starlink user has a good chance to avoid being > targeted by just using the terminal. Different case is if terminals get > used by the military, and Russia then assumes Starlink =3D military targe= t. > We=E2=80=99re far from any clear scenario, so we need to wait & see. > > A couple of weeks ago I sent a Ku band LNB to Oleg, tuned to the Starlink > uplink band (12.75 - 14.5 GHz), but it arrived a couple of days before th= e > invasion began, so he didn=E2=80=99t get a chance to do any analysis on t= he TX side > of the terminal. > > Best, > > Mike > On Mar 1, 2022, 22:15 +0300, David Lang , wrote: > > a couple thoughts on anti-radiation missiles being fired at starlink dish= es > > 1. the dishes are fairly low power (100w or less) and rather directional, > so > they aren't great targets. > > 2. dishes cost FAR less than the missiles that would be fired at them, an= d > are > being produced at a much higher rate (although there are probably more > missles > in the Russian inventory than spare dishes in SpaceX inventory) > > direction finding teams with boots on the ground could be more of a > threat, but > the higher frequency signals are blocked fairly easily (which is why the > dishes > need a clear view of the sky). It takes a fair amount of training to be > good at > direction finding on weak and intermittent signals. > > David Lang > > On Tue, 1 Mar 2022, Dave Taht wrote: > > Date: Tue, 1 Mar 2022 13:55:47 -0500 > From: Dave Taht > To: starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net > Subject: [Starlink] spacex & ukraine > > It is an ongoing honor to have mike puchol sharing his insights with > us, also, on this list. > > https://spacenews.com/spacex-heeds-ukraines-starlink-sos/ > > > -- > I tried to build a better future, a few times: > https://wayforward.archive.org/?site=3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.icei.org > > > Dave T=C3=A4ht CEO, TekLibre, LLC > _______________________________________________ > Starlink mailing list > Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net > https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink > > > _______________________________________________ > Starlink mailing list > Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net > https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink > > > _______________________________________________ > Starlink mailing list > Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net > https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink > --000000000000657b6c05d9579144 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
They did enable mobile roaming in UA: https://twitter.com/elonmus= k/status/1499442132402130951

On Thu, Mar 3, 2022 at 2:01 PM Larry Press = <lpress@csudh.edu> wrote:
=
>=C2=A0The balance, as David mentions, is on the value of the target vs. the effort r= equired to strike.=C2=A0

The value of allowing government and resistance leaders and journalists to com= municate with each other and the outside world seems quite high, making the= terminals attractive targets for the Russians.

The cost of locating and striking a target also seems high -- Ukraine is large= and the terminals are portable. SpaceX is testing roaming without re-regis= tration in California/Nevada (https://circleid.com/posts/20220225-spacex-is-testing-starlink-roaming). If SpaceX is listening -- consider enabling roaming in by the users in Ukr= aine.

Larry

Fro= m: Starlink <starlink-bounces@lists.bufferbloat.net> on beha= lf of Mike Puchol <mike@starlink.sx>
Sent: Wednesday, March 2, 2022 1:06 AM
To: Dave Taht <dave.taht@gmail.com>; David Lang <david@lang.hm>
Cc: starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net <starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net><= br> Subject: Re: [Starlink] spacex & ukraine
=C2=A0
Thank you Dave, the honor is mine to share a mailing list= with so many people who know way more than I do, about any subject I could= point my finger at, so I really appreciate it.

On the subject at hand, ELINT/SIGINT and traffic analysis has evolved massi= vely over the years. In the mid-90s, the Chechen president was killed by Ru= ssia with a missile strike, based on his satcom phone signals, which includ= ed decoding the speech and matching to ensure they were hitting the right target.

The balance, as David mentions, is on the value of the target vs. the effor= t required to strike. It is relatively easy to monitor cellular networks, d= ecrypt the traffic, and triangulate to almost automatically target & st= rike. The same happens with VSAT, which operates against a fixed satellite, so an aircraft high enough will be in = the path between a large portion of the ground and the satellite.

With Starlink, the challenge is two-fold. You must be able to detect & = locate the 4.5=C2=BA wide uplink beam from a terminal, which constantly mov= es - this can be done by measuring just the RF levels and using an ESA to f= ind the source. You must also ensure that the user of the terminal is a target valuable enough to justify a strike, = which would be a lot harder, as you need to keep a good enough SNR to demod= ulate, then you=E2=80=99d need to decrypt. Doing this in real time on an ai= rborne platform is quite a challenge.

Bottom line: unless Russia goes all-out against anyone using any form of ra= dio comms (phones, VSAT, satcom, Starlink, etc.) and they just blindly stri= ke any source of RF, a Starlink user has a good chance to avoid being targe= ted by just using the terminal. Different case is if terminals get used by the military, and Russia then a= ssumes Starlink =3D military target. We=E2=80=99re far from any clear scena= rio, so we need to wait & see.

A couple of weeks ago I sent a Ku band LNB to Oleg, tuned to the Starlink u= plink band (12.75 - 14.5 GHz), but it arrived a couple of days before the i= nvasion began, so he didn=E2=80=99t get a chance to do any analysis on the = TX side of the terminal.

Best,

Mike
On Mar 1, 2022, 22:15 +0300, David Lang= <david@lang.hm&g= t;, wrote:
a couple thoughts on anti-radiation missiles being fired at starlink dishes=

1. the dishes are fairly low power (100w or less) and rather directional, s= o
they aren't great targets.

2. dishes cost FAR less than the missiles that would be fired at them, and = are
being produced at a much higher rate (although there are probably more miss= les
in the Russian inventory than spare dishes in SpaceX inventory)

direction finding teams with boots on the ground could be more of a threat,= but
the higher frequency signals are blocked fairly easily (which is why the di= shes
need a clear view of the sky). It takes a fair amount of training to be goo= d at
direction finding on weak and intermittent signals.

David Lang

On Tue, 1 Mar 2022, Dave Taht wrote:

Date: Tue, 1 Mar 2022 13:55:47 -0500
From: Dave Taht <dave.taht@gmail.com>
To: sta= rlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
Subject: [Starlink] spacex & ukraine

It is an ongoing honor to have mike puchol sharing his insights with
us, also, on this list.

https://spacenew= s.com/spacex-heeds-ukraines-starlink-sos/

--
I tried to build a better future, a few times:
http= s://wayforward.archive.org/?site=3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.icei.org

Dave T=C3=A4ht CEO, TekLibre, LLC
_______________________________________________
Starlink mailing list
Starlin= k@lists.bufferbloat.net
https://lists.bufferbloat.= net/listinfo/starlink
_______________________________________________
Starlink mailing list
Starlin= k@lists.bufferbloat.net
https://lists.bufferbloat.= net/listinfo/starlink
_______________________________________________
Starlink mailing list
Starlin= k@lists.bufferbloat.net
https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink
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