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Bad." List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Mon, 25 Sep 2023 05:11:12 -0000 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. --_000_TYZPR03MB8282852681D8BBDF281C2876A8FCATYZPR03MB8282apcp_ Content-Type: text/plain; charset=utf-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable I=E2=80=99d love a loan of your crystal ball, please =F0=9F=98=8A HAYDEN SIMON UBER GROUP LIMITED MANAGING DIRECTOR E: h@uber.nz M: 021 0707 014 W: www.uber.nz 53 PORT ROAD | PO BOX 5083 | WHANGAREI | NEW ZEALAND From: Starlink On Behalf Of Ulrich= Speidel via Starlink Sent: Monday, September 25, 2023 6:00 PM To: starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net Subject: Re: [Starlink] APNIC56 last week On 25/09/2023 5:40 pm, Noel Butler via Starlink wrote: Mail is mostly Australian since that's where my userbase is, but there is c= onsiderable international (even when I exclude the spambots, gmail, outlook= socials etc), as for WWW, and excluding most bots, last time I checked web= alizer the figures on a couple of my sites were less than 10% from Aus and = the rest (obviously) international, so its more varied than one might think= , but it does vary depending on the site being visited, I don't run the BBC= or CNN, so of course I wont see the diverse ranges they will. IPv6 adoption in Australia (and NZ) is a bit behind the curve, internationa= lly. So you're in the process of being outnumbered. But that's perhaps of academ= ic interest only, for now, at least. Yes, like I previously said, not in my lifetime. I'm not sure how old you are, but I could imagine things going pretty quick= ly from some point onwards. I came home from APNIC54 last year with the insight that my employer's /16 = IPv4 allocation was worth around US$3.5 million. Since we've had the /16 fo= r ages, I started wondering whether this was even on our asset list. I was = pretty sure that it ought to be. Turns out it wasn't - when I've no doubt they aren't on many, but putting a price on an intangible ass= et that varies is not so easy, what it's worth today it wont be in six mont= hs, yes, with ipv4 that means probably worth more, but a new buyer might no= t want nor need them, so that's another sales stream you need to find, and = then you're competing against others with the same asset, a CGNAT device is= physical one they can keep using without interrupting services to clients = if they so choose, the only intangible asset that's worth something is the = ongoing good will, you don't get that from address space unless you have a = fresh faced startup type buyer. I'm curious though, your part of a Universi= ty, so it's not like you're going to be able to use that extra 3.5m, I don;= t see the Uni giving up its resources, a business of course is a different = matter. The point is that an IPv4 allocation is no longer a resource unless you hav= e an active need for it. We've sold entire campuses lately, so I wouldn't b= et on IPv4 holdings... Incidentally, goodwill isn't the only intangible ass= et that's worth something - my father used to work in that space for decade= s and I earned extra pocket money proofreading an M&A textbook for practiti= oners, and I can tell you that the true list was long, even 40 years ago... You only really "need" IPv4 if you operate a network with a lot of servers = that see inbound traffic from random clients in networks you have no contro= l over. So it's in demand primarily from parties that predominantly operate= servers and are experiencing growth, as well as networks that are invested= in IPv4 and need more to support their growth. But that's a substantial ma= rket. I'd expect IPv4 prices to fall once the demand for IPv4 subsides, and= that's going to be when the overwhelming majority of the world runs IPv6. = That might be another 5 or 10 years away - hard to tell. At current growth = rates, probably not 20 though. Not sure what you're projecting as your life= time ;-) -- **************************************************************** Dr. Ulrich Speidel School of Computer Science Room 303S.594 (City Campus) The University of Auckland u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/ **************************************************************** --_000_TYZPR03MB8282852681D8BBDF281C2876A8FCATYZPR03MB8282apcp_ Content-Type: text/html; charset=utf-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

I=E2=80= =99d love a loan of your crystal ball, please 😊

&nbs= p;

=
HAYDEN̴= 3; SIMON
= UBER GROUP LIMITED
MANAGING DIRECTOR
3D""3D""
E: h@uber.nz<= /a>
M: 021 0707 014
W: www.uber.nz
53 PORT ROAD | PO BOX = ;5083 | WHANGAREI | NEW ZEALAND
<= /td>
    

From: Starlink <starlink-bounces@lists.bufferbloat.net> On Behalf Of Ulrich Speidel via Starlink
Sent: Monday, September 25, 2023 6:00 PM
To: starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net
Subject: Re: [Starlink] APNIC56 last week

 

On 25/09/2023 5:40 pm, Noel Butler via Starlink wrot= e:

 

= Mail is mostly Australian since that's where my userbase is, but there is c= onsiderable international (even when I exclude the spambots, gmail, outlook= socials etc), as for WWW, and excluding most bots, last time I checked webalizer the figures on a couple of my sites we= re less than 10% from Aus and the rest (obviously) international, so its mo= re varied than one might think, but it does vary depending on the site bein= g visited, I don't run the BBC or CNN, so of course I wont see the diverse ranges they will.

IPv6 adoption in Australia (and NZ) is a bit behind = the curve, internationally.

=  

= So you're in the process of being outnumbered. But that's perhaps of academ= ic interest only, for now, at least.

=  

= Yes, like I previously said, not in my lifetime.

I'm not sure how old you are, but I could imagine th= ings going pretty quickly from some point onwards.

=  

= I came home from APNIC54 last year with the insight that my employer's /16 = IPv4 allocation was worth around US$3.5 million. Since we've had the /16 fo= r ages, I started wondering whether this was even on our asset list. I was pretty sure that it ought to be. Turns out it was= n't - when

=  

= I've no doubt they aren't on many, but putting a price on an intangible ass= et that varies is not so easy, what it's worth today it wont be in six mont= hs, yes, with ipv4 that means probably worth more, but a new buyer might not want nor need them, so that's another sales stre= am you need to find, and then you're competing against others with the same= asset, a CGNAT device is physical one they can keep using without interrup= ting services to clients if they so choose, the only intangible asset that's worth something is the ongoing= good will, you don't get that from address space unless you have a fresh f= aced startup type buyer. I'm curious though, your part of a University, so = it's not like you're going to be able to use that extra 3.5m, I don;t see the Uni giving up its resources, = a business of course is a different matter.

The point is that an IPv4 allocation is no longer a resource unless you = have an active need for it. We've sold entire campuses lately, so I wouldn'= t bet on IPv4 holdings... Incidentally, goodwill isn't the only intangible = asset that's worth something - my father used to work in that space for decades and I earned extra pocket mo= ney proofreading an M&A textbook for practitioners, and I can tell you = that the true list was long, even 40 years ago...

You only really "need" IPv4 if you operate a network with a lo= t of servers that see inbound traffic from random clients in networks you h= ave no control over. So it's in demand primarily from parties that predomin= antly operate servers and are experiencing growth, as well as networks that are invested in IPv4 and need more to sup= port their growth. But that's a substantial market. I'd expect IPv4 prices = to fall once the demand for IPv4 subsides, and that's going to be when the = overwhelming majority of the world runs IPv6. That might be another 5 or 10 years away - hard to tell. At cur= rent growth rates, probably not 20 though. Not sure what you're projecting = as your lifetime ;-)

-- 
****************************************************************<=
/o:p>
Dr. Ulrich Speidel
 
School of Computer Science
 
Room 303S.594 (City Campus)
 
The University of Auckland
u.speidel@auckland.ac.nz 
http://www.cs.auckla=
nd.ac.nz/~ulrich/
****************************************************************<=
/o:p>
 
 
 
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