From mboxrd@z Thu Jan 1 00:00:00 1970 Return-Path: Received: from vsmx002.dclux.xion.oxcs.net (vsmx002.dclux.xion.oxcs.net [185.74.65.108]) (using TLSv1.2 with cipher ADH-AES256-GCM-SHA384 (256/256 bits)) (No client certificate requested) by lists.bufferbloat.net (Postfix) with ESMTPS id A68CA3CB35 for ; Wed, 30 Jun 2021 03:23:19 -0400 (EDT) Received: from proxy-1.proxy.oxio.ns.xion.oxcs.net (proxy-1.proxy.oxio.ns.xion.oxcs.net [149.74.221.164]) by mx-out.dclux.xion.oxcs.net (Postfix) with SMTP id E6E628C02B4; Wed, 30 Jun 2021 07:23:14 +0000 (UTC) DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=simple/simple; d=dclux.xion.oxcs.net; s=mail1; t=1625037798; bh=wjLjAHSZRa4eJnJIGHt+i3o4HiGXAMsboZnPt7x3PPI=; h=Date:From:To:Cc:In-Reply-To:References:Subject:From; b=Su5e5RJxlB0e7CWpDlShQrUbTr2AilT2psYIvGF3phMH502r2Ci+s57YTQLNLG6YH NUR91apOnNNii4Bd0LfFai5QRvwTRuOY2o9BsHzbeVJ1/vt1pTSaR1KQdIwD8xXxxI Q/0Q6kIWuyzw5+wTLiynHbnu4hRg8vBsmnmV0gpgNtyZrzRC2GEb3+meh5fpmwrG2k O9HAPgeUtYnTufes/zJIUiCHUr/wGlX8l+0y9WKyHW+BjNVrEnfnZw4RVcFWlcaRgO oOrnG4mXS+Ei72IImcUl2X3VVdDFQujLWAqi4nxb3bGeQu8c/wQAGcZ9lLgbBUZJz7 P3nOXGqRRqimg== Date: Wed, 30 Jun 2021 09:23:02 +0200 From: Mike Puchol To: David Lang , Dave Taht Cc: starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net Message-ID: In-Reply-To: References: <85542036-9ff8-75d2-438e-c86cc0c105d8@sokolov.eu.org> X-Readdle-Message-ID: f8487abf-9860-4bfc-b7e7-630db60376df@Spark MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="60dc1be1_257130a3_1d24" X-VadeSecure-Status: LEGIT X-VADE-STATUS: LEGIT Subject: Re: [Starlink] 69,000 Users X-BeenThere: starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.20 Precedence: list List-Id: "Starlink has bufferbloat. Bad." List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 30 Jun 2021 07:23:19 -0000 --60dc1be1_257130a3_1d24 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Disposition: inline 500k customers is =7E=24600m in gross revenue per year. Assuming no opera= ting costs, takes, etc., =2410bn takes =7E16 years to pay back. They need= to add way more customers onto that investment. In traditional land-based telcos, it is frequent to split the backbone an= d customer sides, having a =E2=80=9CTowerCo=E2=80=9D with all the expensi= ve infrastructure, that has a payback period of 25 years, and =E2=80=9CCu= stomerCo=E2=80=9D where payback needs to be 12-18 months. In Starlink=E2=80= =99s case, unless they cannot increase satellite lifespan, and/or make th= em very cheap, the payback period is fixed at 5 years. =46or gateways and= ground infrastructure, you can stretch it to compensate, but you cannot = justify, say, a 50 year payback. IMHO the direct to customer side will end up being residual, high price f= or those who really need it, and their revenue will come from backhauling= mobile and =46TTH operators, airlines, cruises, and the military. Best, Mike On Jun 30, 2021, 7:48 AM +0200, Dave Taht , wrote:= > On Tue, Jun 29, 2021 at 10:24 PM David Lang wrote: > > > > I think that was 69k simultanious users > > > > dishy production cost is currently down to =7E=241k/unit (I've heard = that it was > > =7E=243k/unit for the first ones) > > Keep hoping they will add good, nay, great=21=21 queue management. > Software costs nothing in qty. > > > But the long term upside if they can pull it off is a license to prin= t money, > > I've seen speculation that it's on the order of 30B/year when fully b= uilt > > I think that's kind of doable. > > It's too bad all those users are behind a CGN and cannot talk to each > other, routing calls at least from one village to another would stay > on the same sat. > > > > > David Lang > > > > On Tue, 29 Jun 2021, Daniel AJ Sokolov wrote: > > > > > Date: Tue, 29 Jun 2021 19:00:32 -0700 > > > =46rom: Daniel AJ Sokolov > > > To: starlink=40lists.bufferbloat.net > > > Subject: =5BStarlink=5D 69,000 Users > > > > > > Starlink currently has 69,000 User, according to what Elon Musk sai= d > > > today at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona. > > > > > > In a year, he wants to have 500,000 users. > > > > > > He expects having to invest 25 to 30 billion US-Dollars to fully bu= ild > > > Starlink. > > > > > > Each Dishy costs Starlink about double the current purchase price. > > > However, they want to reduce the production cost to =22a few hundre= d > > > dollars=22 - which is why they are working on their own factory in = Texas. > > > > > > =46YI > > > Daniel > > > > > > =5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F= =5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F > > > Starlink mailing list > > > Starlink=40lists.bufferbloat.net > > > https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink > > > > > =5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F= =5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F > > Starlink mailing list > > Starlink=40lists.bufferbloat.net > > https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink > > > > -- > Latest Podcast: > https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:679101428493678592= 0/ > > Dave T=C3=A4ht CTO, TekLibre, LLC > =5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F= =5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F > Starlink mailing list > Starlink=40lists.bufferbloat.net > https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink --60dc1be1_257130a3_1d24 Content-Type: text/html; charset="utf-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Disposition: inline
500k customers is =7E=24600m in gross revenue per y= ear. Assuming no operating costs, takes, etc., =2410bn takes =7E16 years = to pay back. They need to add way more customers onto that investment.
In traditional land-based telcos, it is frequent to split the backbone an= d customer sides, having a =E2=80=9CTowerCo=E2=80=9D with all the expensi= ve infrastructure, that has a payback period of 25 years, and =E2=80=9CCu= stomerCo=E2=80=9D where payback needs to be 12-18 months. In Starlink=E2=80= =99s case, unless they cannot increase satellite lifespan, and/or make th= em very cheap, the payback period is fixed at 5 years. =46or gateways and= ground infrastructure, you can stretch it to compensate, but you cannot = justify, say, a 50 year payback.

IMHO the direct to customer side will end up being residual, high price f= or those who really need it, and their revenue will come from backhauling= mobile and =46TTH operators, airlines, cruises, and the military.

Best,

Mike
On Jun 30, 2021, 7:48 AM +0200, Dav= e Taht <dave.taht=40gmail.com>, wrote:
On Tue, Jun 29, 2021 at 10:24 PM David Lang <david=40lang.hm= > wrote:

I think that was 69k simultanious users

dishy production cost is currently down to =7E=241k/unit (I've heard that= it was
=7E=243k/unit for the first ones)

Keep hoping they will add good, nay, great=21=21 queue management.
Software costs nothing in qty.

But the long term upside if they can pull i= t off is a license to print money,
I've seen speculation that it's on the order of 30B/year when fully built=

I think that's kind of doable.

It's too bad all those users are behind a CGN and cannot talk to each
other, routing calls at least from one village to another would stay
on the same sat.


David Lang

On Tue, 29 Jun 2021, Daniel AJ Sokolov wrote:

Date: Tue, 29 Jun 2021 19:00:32 -0700
= =46rom: Daniel AJ Sokolov <daniel=40sokolov.eu.org>
To: starlink=40lists.bufferbloat.net
Subject: =5BStarlink=5D 69,000 Users

Starlink currently has 69,000 User, according to what Elon Musk said
today at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona.

In a year, he wants to have 500,000 users.

He expects having to invest 25 to 30 billion US-Dollars to fully build Starlink.

Each Dishy costs Starlink about double the current purchase price.
However, they want to reduce the production cost to =22a few hundred
dollars=22 - which is why they are working on their own factory in Texas.=

=46YI
Daniel

=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F= =5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F
Starlink mailing list
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--
Latest Podcast:
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6791014284936785920/=

Dave T=C3=A4ht CTO, TekLibre, LLC
=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F= =5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F
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