From mboxrd@z Thu Jan 1 00:00:00 1970 Return-Path: Received: from vsmx001.dclux.xion.oxcs.net (vsmx001.dclux.xion.oxcs.net [185.74.65.81]) (using TLSv1.2 with cipher ADH-AES256-GCM-SHA384 (256/256 bits)) (No client certificate requested) by lists.bufferbloat.net (Postfix) with ESMTPS id A73643B29D for ; Wed, 2 Mar 2022 04:06:33 -0500 (EST) Received: from proxy-1.proxy.oxio.ns.xion.oxcs.net (proxy-1.proxy.oxio.ns.xion.oxcs.net [197.232.55.55]) by mx-out.dclux.xion.oxcs.net (Postfix) with ESMTPA id 385818C0374; Wed, 2 Mar 2022 09:06:27 +0000 (UTC) DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=simple/simple; d=dclux.xion.oxcs.net; s=mail1; t=1646211992; bh=Q/Q2XacdP0+dF3scXqlXH+ZgzP0bNjTzxKi4NHC5rJk=; h=Date:From:To:Cc:In-Reply-To:References:Subject:From; b=qiRbVzwIDoP1W44xkh5fBBg4z8qiTYQGanYV5BaLEhAhuvuC6p6ZYifPLf9QseyNt UP//WDS0E+59LC2nyLs5CszY6AGqpiggA/MWnpPiEbuq/I3A3Yl928lxEDHjfSx6Ed wl+moiWicKKehFWO1qXvzdfCxr+n+LfGKM3xeSqLF4ioZUlty1j6MLPAlVXUicFwOY j8/IwREYPG0ct5TLPwS6bohlURcRCC2KJYtpU74e1q2RboOZ+HWtVHQOKDACCPLSA5 mwLxvwlGczHduOfFkMm42zdkAqy/LDlSPAQsNgnv4ugz9svo0TArsnisfHU9mAZmke 8t0Zl108QKsPQ== Date: Wed, 2 Mar 2022 12:06:19 +0300 From: Mike Puchol To: Dave Taht , David Lang Cc: starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net Message-ID: In-Reply-To: <3s439o61-8o85-qq62-21s-36988o71o5r6@ynat.uz> References: <3s439o61-8o85-qq62-21s-36988o71o5r6@ynat.uz> X-Readdle-Message-ID: fd8b435b-c8c6-4372-a737-c770a2d1c660@Spark MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="621f3390_47398c89_3bd" X-VadeSecure-Status: LEGIT X-VADE-STATUS: LEGIT Subject: Re: [Starlink] spacex & ukraine X-BeenThere: starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.20 Precedence: list List-Id: "Starlink has bufferbloat. Bad." List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 02 Mar 2022 09:06:33 -0000 --621f3390_47398c89_3bd Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Disposition: inline Thank you Dave, the honor is mine to share a mailing list with so many pe= ople who know way more than I do, about any subject I could point my fing= er at, so I really appreciate it. On the subject at hand, ELINT/SIGINT and traffic analysis has evolved mas= sively over the years. In the mid-90s, the Chechen president was killed b= y Russia with a missile strike, based on his satcom phone signals, which = included decoding the speech and matching to ensure they were hitting the= right target. The balance, as David mentions, is on the value of the target vs. the eff= ort required to strike. It is relatively easy to monitor cellular network= s, decrypt the traffic, and triangulate to almost automatically target & = strike. The same happens with VSAT, which operates against a fixed satell= ite, so an aircraft high enough will be in the path between a large porti= on of the ground and the satellite. With Starlink, the challenge is two-fold. You must be able to detect & lo= cate the 4.5=C2=BA wide uplink beam from a terminal, which constantly mov= es - this can be done by measuring just the R=46 levels and using an ESA = to find the source. You must also ensure that the user of the terminal is= a target valuable enough to justify a strike, which would be a lot harde= r, as you need to keep a good enough SNR to demodulate, then you=E2=80=99= d need to decrypt. Doing this in real time on an airborne platform is qui= te a challenge. Bottom line: unless Russia goes all-out against anyone using any form of = radio comms (phones, VSAT, satcom, Starlink, etc.) and they just blindly = strike any source of R=46, a Starlink user has a good chance to avoid bei= ng targeted by just using the terminal. Different case is if terminals ge= t used by the military, and Russia then assumes Starlink =3D military tar= get. We=E2=80=99re far from any clear scenario, so we need to wait & see.= A couple of weeks ago I sent a Ku band LNB to Oleg, tuned to the Starlink= uplink band (12.75 - 14.5 GHz), but it arrived a couple of days before t= he invasion began, so he didn=E2=80=99t get a chance to do any analysis o= n the TX side of the terminal. Best, Mike On Mar 1, 2022, 22:15 +0300, David Lang , wrote: > a couple thoughts on anti-radiation missiles being fired at starlink di= shes > > 1. the dishes are fairly low power (100w or less) and rather directiona= l, so > they aren't great targets. > > 2. dishes cost =46AR less than the missiles that would be fired at them= , and are > being produced at a much higher rate (although there are probably more = missles > in the Russian inventory than spare dishes in SpaceX inventory) > > direction finding teams with boots on the ground could be more of a thr= eat, but > the higher frequency signals are blocked fairly easily (which is why th= e dishes > need a clear view of the sky). It takes a fair amount of training to be= good at > direction finding on weak and intermittent signals. > > David Lang > > On Tue, 1 Mar 2022, Dave Taht wrote: > > > Date: Tue, 1 Mar 2022 13:55:47 -0500 > > =46rom: Dave Taht > > To: starlink=40lists.bufferbloat.net > > Subject: =5BStarlink=5D spacex & ukraine > > > > It is an ongoing honor to have mike puchol sharing his insights with > > us, also, on this list. > > > > https://spacenews.com/spacex-heeds-ukraines-starlink-sos/ > > > > -- > > I tried to build a better future, a few times: > > https://wayforward.archive.org/=3Fsite=3Dhttps%3A%2=46%2=46www.icei.o= rg > > > > Dave T=C3=A4ht CEO, TekLibre, LLC > > =5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F= =5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F > > Starlink mailing list > > Starlink=40lists.bufferbloat.net > > https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink > =5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F= =5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F > Starlink mailing list > Starlink=40lists.bufferbloat.net > https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink --621f3390_47398c89_3bd Content-Type: text/html; charset="utf-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Disposition: inline
Thank you Dave, the honor is mine to share a mailin= g list with so many people who know way more than I do, about any subject= I could point my finger at, so I really appreciate it.

On the subject at hand, ELINT/SIGINT and traffic analysis has evolved mas= sively over the years. In the mid-90s, the Chechen president was killed b= y Russia with a missile strike, based on his satcom phone signals, which = included decoding the speech and matching to ensure they were hitting the= right target.

The balance, as David mentions, is on the value of the target vs. the eff= ort required to strike. It is relatively easy to monitor cellular network= s, decrypt the traffic, and triangulate to almost automatically target &a= mp; strike. The same happens with VSAT, which operates against a fixed sa= tellite, so an aircraft high enough will be in the path between a large p= ortion of the ground and the satellite.

With Starlink, the challenge is two-fold. You must be able to detect &= ; locate the 4.5=C2=BA wide uplink beam from a terminal, which constantly= moves - this can be done by measuring just the R=46 levels and using an = ESA to find the source. You must also ensure that the user of the termina= l is a target valuable enough to justify a strike, which would be a lot h= arder, as you need to keep a good enough SNR to demodulate, then you=E2=80= =99d need to decrypt. Doing this in real time on an airborne platform is = quite a challenge.

Bottom line: unless Russia goes all-out against anyone using any form of = radio comms (phones, VSAT, satcom, Starlink, etc.) and they just blindly = strike any source of R=46, a Starlink user has a good chance to avoid bei= ng targeted by just using the terminal. Different case is if terminals ge= t used by the military, and Russia then assumes Starlink =3D military tar= get. We=E2=80=99re far from any clear scenario, so we need to wait & = see.

A couple of weeks ago I sent a Ku band LNB to Oleg, tuned to the Starlink= uplink band (12.75 - 14.5 GHz), but it arrived a couple of days before t= he invasion began, so he didn=E2=80=99t get a chance to do any analysis o= n the TX side of the terminal.

Best,

Mike
On Mar 1, 2022, 22:15 +0300, David = Lang <david=40lang.hm>, wrote:
a couple thoughts on anti-radiation missiles being fired at sta= rlink dishes

1. the dishes are fairly low power (100w or less) and rather directional,= so
they aren't great targets.

2. dishes cost =46AR less than the missiles that would be fired at them, = and are
being produced at a much higher rate (although there are probably more mi= ssles
in the Russian inventory than spare dishes in SpaceX inventory)

direction finding teams with boots on the ground could be more of a threa= t, but
the higher frequency signals are blocked fairly easily (which is why the = dishes
need a clear view of the sky). It takes a fair amount of training to be g= ood at
direction finding on weak and intermittent signals.

David Lang

On Tue, 1 Mar 2022, Dave Taht wrote:

Date: Tue, 1 Mar 2022 13:55:47 -0500
=46rom: Dave Taht <dave.taht=40gmail.com>
To: starlink=40lists.bufferbloat.net
Subject: =5BStarlink=5D spacex & ukraine

It is an ongoing honor to have mike puchol sharing his insights with
us, also, on this list.

https://spacenews.com/spacex-heeds-ukraines-starlink-sos/

--
I tried to build a better future, a few times:
https://wayforward.archive.org/=3Fsite=3Dhttps%3A%2=46%2=46www.icei.org
Dave T=C3=A4ht CEO, TekLibre, LLC
=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F= =5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F=5F
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