From mboxrd@z Thu Jan 1 00:00:00 1970 Return-Path: Received: from mail.lang.hm (syn-045-059-245-186.biz.spectrum.com [45.59.245.186]) (using TLSv1.2 with cipher ADH-AES256-GCM-SHA384 (256/256 bits)) (No client certificate requested) by lists.bufferbloat.net (Postfix) with ESMTPS id 3E79E3B29D for ; Wed, 28 Aug 2024 11:01:43 -0400 (EDT) Received: from dlang-mobile (unknown [10.2.3.133]) by mail.lang.hm (Postfix) with ESMTP id 36C771DD74F; Wed, 28 Aug 2024 08:01:42 -0700 (PDT) Date: Wed, 28 Aug 2024 08:01:42 -0700 (PDT) From: David Lang To: Hesham ElBakoury cc: Dave Taht via Starlink In-Reply-To: Message-ID: References: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/mixed; BOUNDARY="===============2531195623205274832==" Subject: Re: [Starlink] Formidable SpaceX Challenger X-BeenThere: starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.20 Precedence: list List-Id: "Starlink has bufferbloat. Bad." List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 28 Aug 2024 15:01:43 -0000 This message is in MIME format. The first part should be readable text, while the remaining parts are likely unreadable without MIME-aware tools. --===============2531195623205274832== Content-Type: text/plain; format=flowed; charset=ISO-8859-7 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8BIT Rocket Labs is aiming for the small/medium satellite market where customers don't want to pay for a dedicated flight of a F9, and don't want to wait for a transporter rideshare program (either because of schedule or to get a specific orbit). Right now with Electron, they can launch 500-700Kg to orbit vs the F9 13,000 rtls, 18,000 drone ship, 23,000 expended (falcon heavy can get to 68,000 expendable) Their next rocket (Neutron) will be a reusable 1st stage and super-cheap 2nd stage with an early design goal of 13,000 drone ship landing payload. It could be real competition to the F9 (even limited to smaller payloads) Rocket Labs is one of the few companies that I expect to survive (as they are working on a partially reusable rocket), but they will be a 2nd or 3rd tier provider. with the exception of RFA (see below), I don't see any expendable rockets surviving very long ULA talks about possibly modifying a Vulcan to break the engines off the first stage and landing them, then building a new 1st stage for the next flight (and 2nd stage). Their target is to eventually hit 24 launches/year. RFA is working on expendable designs, but using super cheap parts (automotive grade parts, not aerospace parts), which sounds dangerous at first, but if you think about it, cheap automotive grade parts are better quality (more consistant dimensions and materials) than manually milled space parts were back in the '60s. Stoke is working on a fully reusable rocket. It's a very interesting design, but their current design is for 5,000kg payload capacity (if this design works, they may scape up) Blue Origin is saying they may fly New Glen as early as October. It's 1st stage is designed to land, and per a recent interview, Jeff Bezos has two teams working on the 2nd stage, one with the focus of building a reusable 2nd stage so efficient it makes no sense to use an expendable one, and the other team working on an expendable 2nd stage so cheap it doesn't make sense to use an expendable one. If New Glen works, it will be in the same class as a Falcon Heavy with a design payload of 45,000kg SpaceX Starship is designed to be fully reusable and have a payload capacity of 100,000-200,000kg with launch costs in the same ballpark as Neutron A few years ago Elon Musk said that fuel for a Starship would run around $1m/launch and launch pad, manpower, permits, etc run another $1m. Neutron needs less fuel, but the expendable 2nd stage costs, and (more importantly) limits the flight rate to the 2nd stage production rate. A lower flight rate would be fewer flights to spread the fixed costs (manpower, faciliites) across. So it's a toss-up which would end up cheaper. David Lang On Wed, 28 Aug 2024, Hesham ElBakoury via Starlink wrote: > Date: Wed, 28 Aug 2024 04:48:44 -0700 > From: Hesham ElBakoury via Starlink > Reply-To: Hesham ElBakoury > To: Dave Taht via Starlink > Subject: [Starlink] Formidable SpaceX Challenger > > "Elon Musk may soon face a formidable challenger in the space industry > > . Peter Beck, the CEO of Rocket Lab USA, Inc. RKLB, is preparing to launch > a new, larger rocket that could rival Musk¢s SpaceX and potentially disrupt > the billionaire¢s space dominance." > > https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/08/40571227/while-elon-musk-is-busy-taking-a-dig-at-boeing-after-starliner-fails-to-bring-astronauts-back-from-i > > > Hesham > --===============2531195623205274832==--