From mboxrd@z Thu Jan 1 00:00:00 1970 Return-Path: Received: from mail.lang.hm (syn-045-059-245-186.biz.spectrum.com [45.59.245.186]) (using TLSv1.2 with cipher ADH-AES256-GCM-SHA384 (256/256 bits)) (No client certificate requested) by lists.bufferbloat.net (Postfix) with ESMTPS id 47D723B2A4 for ; Thu, 6 Feb 2025 06:11:53 -0500 (EST) Received: from [10.2.2.53] (unknown [10.2.2.53]) by mail.lang.hm (Postfix) with ESMTP id 438441F2BDA; Thu, 6 Feb 2025 03:11:52 -0800 (PST) Date: Thu, 6 Feb 2025 03:11:52 -0800 (PST) From: David Lang To: Ulrich Speidel cc: starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net In-Reply-To: <4cadae1b-e31e-4dae-92c1-9d847edf7489@auckland.ac.nz> Message-ID: References: <4cadae1b-e31e-4dae-92c1-9d847edf7489@auckland.ac.nz> MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/mixed; BOUNDARY="===============8520287242634075434==" Subject: Re: [Starlink] Starlink profit growing rapidly as it faces a moment of promise and peril (Ars Technica) X-BeenThere: starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.20 Precedence: list List-Id: "Starlink has bufferbloat. Bad." List-Unsubscribe: , List-Archive: List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , X-List-Received-Date: Thu, 06 Feb 2025 11:11:53 -0000 This message is in MIME format. The first part should be readable text, while the remaining parts are likely unreadable without MIME-aware tools. --===============8520287242634075434== Content-Type: text/plain; format=flowed; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8BIT just one note on the 5 year service life. The orbit they are in is such that a failed satellite will reenter within 5 years. That doesn't mean that they only have fuel for 5 years of operation Also re: revenue, many places outside the US pay less than $100/month, and many users in the US pay more than $100/month, so it's hard to come up with the average per-subscriber revenue. But I agree thta it makes the article revenue numbers plausable. David Lang On Thu, 6 Feb 2025, Ulrich Speidel via Starlink wrote: > Date: Thu, 6 Feb 2025 21:47:26 +1300 > From: Ulrich Speidel via Starlink > Reply-To: Ulrich Speidel > To: starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net > Subject: Re: [Starlink] Starlink profit growing rapidly as it faces a moment > of promise and peril (Ars Technica) > > Now the interesting thing here is that with 5 million subscribers paying > about US$1200 a year, you'd get about 6 billion from bog standard dishy end > users alone. So that $8.2b is credible. > > Note this is revenue, not profit. To get there, pointing at the other posts > today, Starlink had to build a constellation of about 7,000 satellites. Even > if we looked just at these 7,000 and assumed incorrectly that they all got to > enjoy a full service life of maybe 5 years, we'd be looking at 1,400 of them > needing to get replaced each year going forward. Assuming here 1000 kg per > satellite going forward (just ballpark) and US$1000/kg launch cost. So that's > a US$1M replacement cost per satellite (not even looking at the hardware), > and that's got to come out of those $8.2b. So I guess profit might be closer > to the $6b mark at best in that scenario, and probably nowhere near that so > far due to the fact that SpaceX are launching at well beyond replacement > rate, the launch costs of anything older than Starship are higher, and the > V3's will be closer to 2000 kg than 1000 kg. So that mightn't leave quite > that much change out of the $8.2b to throw at other projects. But it's > certainly looking like a sustainable business. > > But then Starlink are growing. I guess with Elon now being in de-facto > control of the FCC, they'll get what they want, but more sats up there also > means having to replace more eventually. So that cost will go up. > > It then depends on revenue growth, and that in turn depends on: > > * capacity available to sell and > * markets to sell into. > > And here lies the crux: Capacity comes in two types: > > 1. Spectral capacity. That's SpaceX's ability to find a frequency to > serve a customer on that isn't already in use in the customer's > neighbourhood. > 2. Beam capacity: The ability to find a spare beam on a satellite that > can be used for that customer. > > Now the second one of these is easy to address - just launch more sats and > put more beams on each sat. But the second capacity is worth nothing in a > place where you don't have the first one, which can't be increased by > launching more satellites - at least not unless they're different ones that > allow for smaller cells and sharper beams. That's a route that Starlink are > trying to go down FAIK, but there's limited growth potential here. > > And looking at the Starlink availability map, spectral capacity is something > they currently seem to be grappling with in quite a number of places. From > the Greenwich Meridian roughly east, they're "sold out" in: the greater > London area, Accra, Lagos, Benin City, Warri, Port Harcourt, Abuja, Lusaka, > Bulawayo, Harare, Maputo, Nairobi, Antananarivo, Jakarta, Perth, Manila, > Brisbane, Bethel, quite a lot of areas south of Anchorage, spots around > Fairbanks, Delta Junction, Whitehorse, the Seattle-Portland corridor, > Sacramento, Grande Prairie, Spokane, San Diego, Missoula, Edmonton, Apache > Junction, Nogales, Aspen Park, Guadalajara (MX), Monterrey (MX), Mexico City, > Austin, Puero Escondido (MX), De Ridder, Mérida (MX), San Salvador, Playa del > Carmen (MX), Peterborough (CA), Tuskegee, San Jose (CR), Highlands (NC), much > of western Jamaica, parts of the Dominican Republic, much of Puerto Rico, > Iqualuit, Leticia (BR), Rincón de Los Sauces, Sao Gabriel da Caochoeira, Tefé > (BR), Manaus (BR), Sao Paulo BR), Rio de Janeiro. It's been like this for a > couple of months now, so I guess it's not a problem with the Dishy supply > chain. > > Read: Not much growth potential at present in and around population centres > where Starlink used to be available and where there isn't good existing > ground infrastructure. > > There used to be a lot of availability "flickering" in areas where there was > more demand than beam capacity - this has gone solidly to "available" now > where it's not "sold out". So we can assume that the market there is > saturated now mostly. > > There remain those countries where Starlink isn't officially available yet. > Some of these get roaming service, and I'm aware of at least one of these > where spectral capacity is uncomfortably near (BTW: USAID was going to pay > for a fibre cable there so China wouldn't, but I guess Elon doesn't want > USAID to pay for the cable so China can own it. While they're waiting for it, > Starlink gets seen there as being unable to meet demand. It makes no sense to > me. Incidentally, the country has one of the largest sovereign waters in the > world and China is just waiting for the opportunity to get a naval base there > I guess - on the far side of Guam. Bye America!). > > Other countries where you can't get Starlink yet might contribute another few > million users - India in particular. But with Starlink not being able to > support particularly high user densities anywhere because of the spectral > constraints, we're unlikely to see billions of customers there either. > > On 6/02/2025 4:53 am, the keyboard of geoff goodfellow via Starlink wrote: >> "He wants to take food off the table of people—hard-working people." >> EXCERPT: >> >> Two new independent estimates of revenue from SpaceX's Starlink >> Internet service suggest it is rapidly growing, having nearly >> tripled in just two years. >> >> An updated projection from the analysts at Quilty Space estimates >> that the service produced $7.8 billion in revenue in 2024, with >> about 60 percent of that coming from consumers who subscribe to >> the service. Similarly, the media publication Payload estimated >> that Starlink generated $8.2 billion in revenue last year. >> >> These estimates indicate that Starlink produced a few hundred >> million dollars in free cash flow for SpaceX in 2024. However, >> with revenues expected to leap in 2025 to above $12 billion, >> Quilty Space estimates that free cash flow will grow to about $2 >> billion. SpaceX is privately held, so its financial numbers are >> not public. >> >> *Growing subscribers* >> * >> *By launching thousands of satellites and developing an Internet >> service based in low-Earth orbit—where the proximity of satellites >> to the ground provides significantly faster and lower latency >> service than satellites in geostationary space—SpaceX has already >> exceeded space-based communication networks developed earlier. >> >> At the end of last year, Starlink had 4.6 million subscribers. >> Quilty's director of research Caleb Henry noted that the previous >> incumbent players, Hughes and ViaSat, had a combined 2.2 million >> subscribers at their peak about half a decade ago, largely in >> North America, with some in South America and a smattering in >> Europe. Starlink is expected to add another 3 million subscribers >> this year alone. >> >> SpaceX has other significant lines of business, including >> government customers, particularly the US Department of Defense, >> as well as maritime (75,000 vessels equipped with Starlink as well >> as 300 cruise ships) and aviation segments. >> >> "The key takeaway I want everybody to walk away with is, if SpaceX >> was building the Starlink system to pay for a Mars colony, we've >> got evidence that the company will generate the type of free cash >> flows from the business that could pay for said endeavor," said >> Chris Quilty, co-chief executive and president of Quilty Space... >> >> [...] >> https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/02/starlink-profit-growing-rapidly-as-it-faces-a-moment-of-promise-and-peril/ >> >> >> -- >> Geoff.Goodfellow@iconia.com >> living as The Truth is True >> >> >> _______________________________________________ >> Starlink mailing list >> Starlink@lists.bufferbloat.net >> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink > > --===============8520287242634075434== Content-Type: text/plain; CHARSET=utf-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: BASE64 Content-ID: <8026q4o9-o2o4-6491-551o-02qp80r6955q@ynat.uz> Content-Description: Content-Disposition: INLINE X19fX19fX19fX19fX19fX19fX19fX19fX19fX19fX19fX19fX19fX19fX19fX18KU3Rhcmxpbmsg bWFpbGluZyBsaXN0ClN0YXJsaW5rQGxpc3RzLmJ1ZmZlcmJsb2F0Lm5ldApodHRwczovL2xpc3Rz LmJ1ZmZlcmJsb2F0Lm5ldC9saXN0aW5mby9zdGFybGluawo= --===============8520287242634075434==--