[Starlink] Starling and Ukraine (forked from Tonga)

Ulrich Speidel ulrich at cs.auckland.ac.nz
Sun Feb 27 06:57:37 EST 2022 

I think your simulations are a bit generous, IMHO. On their basis, 
Starlink in NZ ought to be available on our Chatham Islands, around 875 
km from the nearest gateway, and it's not (Starlink says "in 2023"). 
It's available everywhere else in the country now, so it's not a 
capacity issue. Similarly, people in Alice Springs (Australia) should 
get service and they don't. Starlink says "targeting coverage in 2022" 
here, so presumably they're looking at establishing another gateway 
closer to the town soon.

On 27/02/2022 11:56 pm, Mike Puchol wrote:
> All valid thoughts - my simulation using the currently known gateways 
> shows that coverage is from good to acceptable over all of Ukraine, 
> see below:
>
>
>
> Starlink is not suitable for serving 40 million Ukranians, just the 
> same as it is not suitable to serve the entire population of Montana. 
> You see those messages because Montana cells, where they have 
> allocated capacity, are full already, and won’t allow more terminals 
> until there is more capacity in the constellation.
>
> The Starlink terminals would best be use in a tactical approach, i.e. 
> not for fixed service on a rooftop. You can also implement OPSEC such 
> as placing the UT 300 meters away over ethernet, thus not exposing 
> your location as much to RF-targeted missile attacks.
>
> In terms of jamming, it can all be jammed - in any case, you’d need to 
> overwhelm several satellites, many not inside the theater, and which 
> are constantly moving. You could jam the downlink using an aerial 
> platform, and this capability exists.
>
> Best,
>
> Mike
> On Feb 27, 2022, 13:26 +0300, Ulrich Speidel 
> <ulrich at cs.auckland.ac.nz>, wrote:
>>
>> Hm. So what would we expect here?
>>
>> - Service provided from Wola Krobowska in Poland and Kaunas in 
>> Lithuania (if it's operational yet), and in the coming days or weeks 
>> perhaps from other sites in eastern and southeastern Europe (Romania 
>> looks like a good spot for that).
>> - Ukraine stretches from about 52 degrees north to around 46 degrees 
>> north (or 44-something deg if you include Crimea, which however might 
>> have some problems getting dishys right now). That's prime Starlink 
>> latitude.
>>
>> But:
>>
>> - Ukraine also stretches about 1300 km across, and some of its parts 
>> are almost 1500 km away from the known gateways. That's a lot by 
>> Starlink standards (remember, Tonga gets "spotty" service at 750 km 
>> from the gateway in Fiji).
>> - If Starlink became a significant player in Ukraine, I would expect 
>> Russia to want to jam them. How difficult is it to jam Starlink 
>> satellites on the uplink from Belarus and Russia itself? Probably not 
>> too difficult. Similarly, the downlinks could potentially be jammed 
>> from the air.
>> - Where are Ukrainians going to put the dishys so they're not seen by 
>> Russian helicopter patrols? Would you put one on you roof if you were 
>> Ukrainian? Will they come in camouflage colours?
>> - Ukraine has a pretty long border with the EU/NATO, so plenty of 
>> opportunity to throw a bit of fibre over the fence and re-establish 
>> connectivity. Similarly, it's had a reasonably mature telecoms and 
>> Internet market and a lot of technically savy people ... I'd say 
>> Russia would have a hard time shutting the Internet out of Ukraine 
>> completely in a hurry.
>> - Last but not least: If I look at, e.g., Montana, which is a similar 
>> latitude and has a population of just over a million, and try to 
>> order Starlink there (Kalispell, for example), I get the message: 
>> "Order now to reserve your Starlink. Starlink is currently at 
>> capacity in your area, so your order may not be fulfilled until 2023 
>> or later. You will receive a notification once your Starlink is ready 
>> to ship." That's with three gateways in easy range, two of them in 
>> under 200 km distance. Now if they can't even service Montana, how 
>> would they provide service to 40 million Ukrainians?
>>
>> On 27/02/2022 8:15 pm, Mike Puchol wrote:
>>> In addition, AS50494 has started announcing two prefixes, I have 
>>> only started looking into them, but a traceroute ends in Ukraine, 
>>> and host returns e.g. gw.starlink.ua.
>>>
>>> From my simulation, the current known gateways can provide very good 
>>> service to all of Ukraine.
>>>
>>> Best,
>>>
>>> Mike
>>> On Feb 27, 2022, 03:14 +0300, Doc Searls <doc at searls.com>, wrote:
>>>> Item: 
>>>> https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497712365923618816 
>>>> <https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497712365923618816> 
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>     Elon Musk's Starlink satellite system providing internet access
>>>>     is now active in Ukraine.
>>>>
>>>>     Satellite terminals are on the way to Ukraine. This could be
>>>>     useful if Russia’s attacks destabilize Ukraine’s internet.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Also, 
>>>> https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/starlink-service-ukraine-elon-musk-b2024184.html 
>>>> <https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/starlink-service-ukraine-elon-musk-b2024184.html>
>>>>
>>>> Doc
>>>>
>>>>> On Feb 25, 2022, at 10:02 PM, Ulrich Speidel 
>>>>> <ulrich at cs.auckland.ac.nz> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> I like that mental model, too, although the way Internet 
>>>>> development has historically played out in the Pacific has been 
>>>>> quite diverse in comparison.
>>>>>
>>>>> Some place, e.g., Niue, did initially exactly that - the local 
>>>>> geek guru got it going and things went from there. Other places 
>>>>> were worried that their monopoly telco might get competition, and 
>>>>> kept a lid on it for reasons political or simply because they 
>>>>> genuinely felt that their island was too small not to pool 
>>>>> resources in a single provider. Some islands don't have geek 
>>>>> gurus. Tonga is a case in point here - the smaller islands that 
>>>>> didn't have cable so far are, with the exception of 'Eua, very 
>>>>> small in terms of population, a few hundred people at most, many 
>>>>> only have a few dozen.
>>>>>
>>>>> On many of these smaller islands, the only businesses are small 
>>>>> stall-like shops that will sell bread from the local baker and 
>>>>> necessities such as tooth paste, soap, batteries and that sort of 
>>>>> thing, plus peanuts and other imported snacks. Whatever the supply 
>>>>> ship brings when it comes, which could be once every few months in 
>>>>> some cases. Most people live off the land, go fishing or collect 
>>>>> shellfish on the reef, and in some cases will produce crafts like 
>>>>> pandanus mats or tapa cloth, some of which is sent overseas and 
>>>>> can generate a bit of income. There are a lot of old people in 
>>>>> comparison to younger folk, who have often left for a life 
>>>>> overseas to support those back home. Post offices, coffee shops 
>>>>> and libraries exist only on the larger islands. The smaller 
>>>>> islands will always have more churches than you can count, and 
>>>>> sadly some of these still see the Internet as something to be kept 
>>>>> out at all cost - something that's by no means unique to Tonga.
>>>>>
>>>>> On 26/02/2022 2:27 pm, Dave Taht wrote:
>>>>>> My mental model for starlink was very different than what has 
>>>>>> deployed
>>>>>> so far. A local geek guru would get one for the local library/coffee
>>>>>> shop/post office, set up local wifi and computers cybercafe 
>>>>>> style, set
>>>>>> up a few other p2p wireless links, perhaps a lte node, etc, and
>>>>>> enhance village to village (or island to island) communications via a
>>>>>> starlink node X miles away, as well as provide/integrate with more
>>>>>> local services such as local email, videoconferencing and telephony
>>>>>> without having to traverse the sat at all.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> As things built out, fiber or other forms of connectivity would
>>>>>> emerge, eventually connecting via land or high speed p2p fixed
>>>>>> wireless links, and starlink reverting to more of a backup. Existing
>>>>>> ISPs (notably wisps), would build out excessively remote areas this
>>>>>> way.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> This "vision" is highly influenced by efforts such as the 
>>>>>> villagetelco
>>>>>> and olpc. To some extent the new "premium" service could go that way,
>>>>>> but classic business networking services like BGP, working ipv6, real
>>>>>> ipv4 addresses, etc, are so far, lacking. BYOIP and dual homing for
>>>>>> existing providers has not been spoken of...
>>>>>>
>>>>>> But anyway, I hope the government of tonga uses what they got wisely,
>>>>>> though my primary use case would be for multiplexing low bitrate apps
>>>>>> for a lot of people (like voip and financial transactions), over the
>>>>>> web for a few.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On Fri, Feb 25, 2022 at 8:12 PM Ulrich Speidel 
>>>>>> <ulrich at cs.auckland.ac.nz> wrote:
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> > Someone from FINTEL mentioned this during my seminar on 
>>>>>> Thursday, apparently they started operations on the 16th and 
>>>>>> launched officially on the 23rd.
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> > That said, if you try to order Starlink for an address in, say, 
>>>>>> Neiafu on Vava'u, which has 15k people on it and lost its 
>>>>>> domestic cable connection, you'll be able to pay a US$99 deposit 
>>>>>> to reserve Starlink for ... 2023.
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> > The 50 or so Dishys they have delivered will remain under 
>>>>>> government control and will probably go all over the place, as 
>>>>>> there are many smaller island that have no connectivity at all 
>>>>>> right now. So I doubt that we'll see end user reviews any time 
>>>>>> soon. I may be able to get some informal feedback in a while.
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> > One of the local satellite(-agnostic) ISPs did a review of 
>>>>>> Starlink service in Auckland, at 37 degrees south:
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> > 
>>>>>> https://getgravity.nz/blog/starlink-review-new-zealand-test-results-2022/ 
>>>>>> <https://getgravity.nz/blog/starlink-review-new-zealand-test-results-2022>
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> > Now that's with a gateway in cycling distance (Clevedon) and 
>>>>>> two more within less than 200 km, in a region that is probably 
>>>>>> not too overloaded with users right. They still see frequent 
>>>>>> outages, and I guess it would be worse in Tonga for the time being.
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> > But I guess if it's the alternative to zero connectivity, it's 
>>>>>> worth having, so kudos to them for pushing the envelope here.
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> > On 26/02/2022 7:19 am, Nathan Owens wrote:
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> > https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1497258566347943936 
>>>>>> <https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1497258566347943936>
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> > On Fri, Feb 25, 2022 at 9:15 AM Nathan Owens <nathan at nathan.io> 
>>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>> >>
>>>>>> >> Per the Starlink 4-11 Launch webcast just minutes ago, they 
>>>>>> have launched service in Tonga.
>>>>>> >>
>>>>>> >> On Fri, Feb 25, 2022 at 9:12 AM Ulrich Speidel 
>>>>>> <u.speidel at auckland.ac.nz> wrote:
>>>>>> >>>
>>>>>> >>> Matangitonga said that Starlink wanted to launch this week. 
>>>>>> But I haven't heard confirmation from anyone that they actually have.
>>>>>> >>>
>>>>>> >>> I guess a dishy without a link might still make a nice coffee 
>>>>>> table if nothing else & might even keep your coffee at 
>>>>>> temperature for a bit longer, but seriously: I suppose they must 
>>>>>> think in earnest that they'll be able to deliver at least some 
>>>>>> service some percentage of the time, which is more than some of 
>>>>>> the smaller places have right now. And I don't really want to 
>>>>>> dump on them - at least they tried, as did with varying levels of 
>>>>>> success almost everybody else in the satellite business, and 
>>>>>> that's really all you can ask for.
>>>>>> >>>
>>>>>> >>> Tongans are also an incredibly patient and grateful people, 
>>>>>> whatever they have they make do with. I first had plenty of 
>>>>>> opportunity to witness this when we went there on our honeymoon 
>>>>>> in 2003. One of the island villages we stayed on in the Ha'apai 
>>>>>> group had piped water to the beachfront properties installed 
>>>>>> yonks ago, before they got electricity. Then the Australians 
>>>>>> brought electricity around 2002 & used a trench digger to put the 
>>>>>> cable in along the main drag, unaware that there were water pipes 
>>>>>> in the ground. The locals were too grateful for the electricity 
>>>>>> to complain that they now needed to walk to the cistern to get 
>>>>>> their water, and the problem remained unsolved a year later - we 
>>>>>> had to wash from big barrels and a bit of rainwater off the roof. 
>>>>>> As we left Ha'apai after a hair-raising boat passage in a 4 m 
>>>>>> boat in 6 m swells, we didn't have a flight booked, so went to 
>>>>>> the Ha'apai office of the long since defunct Royal Tongan 
>>>>>> Airlines to book ourselves on the next flight out. The two ladies 
>>>>>> in the office gave us their most welcoming smiles, along with the 
>>>>>> regret that they couldn't book us a ticket as the computer were 
>>>>>> down. We asked how long such outages typically lasted and were 
>>>>>> told that they didn't know but this one had lasted three months 
>>>>>> already. We then made our way to the airport with the help of a 
>>>>>> few bored Mormon missionaries. We were the only people there 
>>>>>> until the station manager turned up. He reckoned there would be 
>>>>>> seats and told us that he was the local baker as well and had 
>>>>>> been trying out artisan bread recipes, which the locals liked, 
>>>>>> but was finding it difficult to get the right flour. Nice chat! 
>>>>>> Eventually the plane arrived early without any passengers. Pilots 
>>>>>> and station manager spent ten seconds bitching about their 
>>>>>> employer (rightfully so, a long story I shan't repeat - but 
>>>>>> neither the employees' nor the management's fault, though), then 
>>>>>> the pilots decided that they wanted lunch in Vava'u and off we 
>>>>>> took 15 minutes ahead of schedule...
>>>>>> >>>
>>>>>> >>> On 22/02/2022 8:45 pm, Daniel AJ Sokolov @mobile wrote:
>>>>>> >>>
>>>>>> >>> So the Starlink terminals have arrived on Tongatapu, but are 
>>>>>> not operational yet?
>>>>>> >>>
>>>>>> >>> Cheers
>>>>>> >>> Daniel
>>>>>> >>>
>>>>>> >>>
>>>>>> >>> On February 22, 2022 7:31:25 a.m. UTC, Ulrich Speidel 
>>>>>> <ulrich at cs.auckland.ac.nz> wrote:
>>>>>> >>> >FWIW... this restores connectivity to ~80% of Tonga's 
>>>>>> population.
>>>>>> >>> >
>>>>>> >>> >The domestic cable may be up to 9 months off, depending on 
>>>>>> cable lead
>>>>>> >>> >time, apparently it's got to come from France. In the 
>>>>>> interim, there's
>>>>>> >>> >work on more satellite connectivity, I heard from a 
>>>>>> satellite ISP in NZ
>>>>>> >>> >today that they were about to ship a few units for Eutelsat 
>>>>>> links up. I
>>>>>> >>> >haven't heard any further about operational readiness of 
>>>>>> Starlink, but
>>>>>> >>> >have heard from a well-connected source that the dishys 
>>>>>> delivered to
>>>>>> >>> >Tonga will remain in Tongan government service in 
>>>>>> underconnected places
>>>>>> >>> >if and when service becomes available.
>>>>>> >>> >
>>>>>> >>> >I would expect them to hang onto a couple of units for 
>>>>>> Tongatapu just in
>>>>>> >>> >case there'll be more turbidity currents messing with the 
>>>>>> cable, heaven
>>>>>> >>> >forbid.
>>>>>> >>> >
>>>>>> >>> >--
>>>>>> >>> >****************************************************************
>>>>>> >>> >Dr. Ulrich Speidel
>>>>>> >>> >
>>>>>> >>> >School of Computer Science
>>>>>> >>> >
>>>>>> >>> >Room 303S.594 (City Campus)
>>>>>> >>> >
>>>>>> >>> >The University of Auckland
>>>>>> >>> >u.speidel at auckland.ac.nz
>>>>>> >>> >http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/ 
>>>>>> <http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich>
>>>>>> >>> >****************************************************************
>>>>>> >>> >
>>>>>> >>> >
>>>>>> >>> >
>>>>>> >>> >_______________________________________________
>>>>>> >>> >Starlink mailing list
>>>>>> >>> >Starlink at lists.bufferbloat.net
>>>>>> >>> >https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink 
>>>>>> <https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink>
>>>>>> >>>
>>>>>> >>> --
>>>>>> >>> ****************************************************************
>>>>>> >>> Dr. Ulrich Speidel
>>>>>> >>>
>>>>>> >>> School of Computer Science
>>>>>> >>>
>>>>>> >>> Room 303S.594 (City Campus)
>>>>>> >>>
>>>>>> >>> The University of Auckland
>>>>>> >>> u.speidel at auckland.ac.nz
>>>>>> >>> http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/ 
>>>>>> <http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/>
>>>>>> >>> ****************************************************************
>>>>>> >>>
>>>>>> >>>
>>>>>> >>>
>>>>>> >>> _______________________________________________
>>>>>> >>> Starlink mailing list
>>>>>> >>> Starlink at lists.bufferbloat.net
>>>>>> >>> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink 
>>>>>> <https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink>
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> > --
>>>>>> > ****************************************************************
>>>>>> > Dr. Ulrich Speidel
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> > School of Computer Science
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> > Room 303S.594 (City Campus)
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> > The University of Auckland
>>>>>> > u.speidel at auckland.ac.nz
>>>>>> > http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/ 
>>>>>> <http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/>
>>>>>> > ****************************************************************
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> > _______________________________________________
>>>>>> > Starlink mailing list
>>>>>> > Starlink at lists.bufferbloat.net
>>>>>> > https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink 
>>>>>> <https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> --
>>>>>> I tried to build a better future, a few times:
>>>>>> https://wayforward.archive.org/?site=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.icei.org 
>>>>>> <https://wayforward.archive.org/?site=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.icei.org>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Dave Täht CEO, TekLibre, LLC
>>>>> --
>>>>> ****************************************************************
>>>>> Dr. Ulrich Speidel
>>>>>
>>>>> School of Computer Science
>>>>>
>>>>> Room 303S.594 (City Campus)
>>>>>
>>>>> The University of Auckland
>>>>> u.speidel at auckland.ac.nz    
>>>>> http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/
>>>>> ****************************************************************
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> _______________________________________________
>>>>> Starlink mailing list
>>>>> Starlink at lists.bufferbloat.net
>>>>> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink 
>>>>> <https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink>
>>>>
>>>> _______________________________________________
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>>>> <https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink>
>> --
>> ****************************************************************
>> Dr. Ulrich Speidel
>>
>> School of Computer Science
>>
>> Room 303S.594 (City Campus)
>>
>> The University of Auckland
>> u.speidel at auckland.ac.nz   
>> http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/
>> ****************************************************************
>>
>>
>>
-- 
****************************************************************
Dr. Ulrich Speidel

School of Computer Science

Room 303S.594 (City Campus)

The University of Auckland
u.speidel at auckland.ac.nz  
http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/
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