[Starlink] Fwd: Here is the first edition of the report: Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?

[David Lang]

David Lang wrote:

> as I wrote back in 2013 
> https://www.usenix.org/publications/login/april-2013-volume-38-number-2/wireless-means-radio
> when you have a lot of people to support, airtime is your most limiting 
> factor, the smaller the area you are covering from one station, the more 
> users you can support
>
> So just like cell phone companies deploy microcells in dense cities, the 
> regular cell service are microcells compared to anything you can do from 
> orbit.
>
> But it may be tht traditional mobile networks won't have to setup stations 
> every few miles along highways and can just concentrate on the denser areas 
> (which are also cheaper to serve)
>
> now to go read the pdf ;-)

finally did get a chance to read this. All very good points, but they did miss 
the cell footprint/frequency reuse problem

with traditional cells being 0.5-5km radius and Starlink cells starting off at 
~70km radius, the total bandwidth available to the traditional network is around 
200x (5km cells) to 20,000x (0.5km cells) higher, just from being able to have 
multiple people talking on the same frequency to different towers, on top of all 
the other problems that are talked about in this paper.

David Lang



> David Lang
>
> On Wed, 29 Jan 2025, Hesham ElBakoury via Starlink wrote:
>
>> Date: Wed, 29 Jan 2025 04:29:45 -0800
>> From: Hesham ElBakoury via Starlink <starlink at lists.bufferbloat.net>
>> Reply-To: Hesham ElBakoury <helbakoury at gmail.com>
>> To: Dave Taht via Starlink <starlink at lists.bufferbloat.net>,
>>     5grm-satellite at ieee.org
>> Subject: [Starlink] Fwd: Here is the first edition of the report: Will LEO
>>     Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks
>>     Obsolete?
>> 
>> ---------- Forwarded message ---------
>> From: John Strand <js at strandconsult.dk>
>> Date: Wed, Jan 29, 2025, 4:23 AM
>> Subject: Here is the first edition of the report: Will LEO Satellite
>> Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?
>> To: <info at strandconsult.dk>
>> 
>> 
>> Dear Colleague,
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> Here is the first edition of the report: *“Will LEO Satellite
>> Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?”*
>> The report is a part of a signature series in Strand Consult´s Global
>> Project for Business Models for Broadband Cost Recovery
>> <https://strandconsult.dk/category/fair-cost-recovery/>.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> This new report offers a comprehensive analysis of the role of Low-Earth
>> Orbit (LEO) satellites in the telecommunications industry. It examines the
>> advancements in satellite technology, the challenges in achieving service
>> parity with terrestrial networks, and the implications for global
>> connectivity. It explores the technical, economic, and regulatory factors
>> shaping the deployment of Direct-to-Cell satellite services and evaluates
>> whether these networks can complement or replace traditional cellular
>> infrastructure.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> This report aims to illuminate the forces driving developments in LEO
>> satellite networks, the challenges they face, and how these technologies
>> will likely shape the telecommunications industry's future. It aims to
>> provide inspiration and insights that can be used to frame discussions
>> about the trends and transformations affecting connectivity on a global
>> scale.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> When reading recent media and comments on various media postings, one can
>> quickly get the impression that satellites will replace traditional mobile
>> networks. This narrative often simplifies a complex issue, creating the
>> perception that satellite technology is a universal solution to global
>> connectivity challenges. However, a more pragmatic view reveals that
>> satellite networks like those operated by Starlink offer revolutionary
>> opportunities but are unlikely to make terrestrial mobile networks
>> obsolete. Instead, these technologies will coexist, each serving distinct
>> roles in the communication ecosystem.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> There are many mobile telecom operators which fear that low earth orbit
>> (LEO) satellite networks like Starlink and others could impact their
>> business in a negative way like over the top (OTT) providers. Indeed, there
>> is a concern about traffic and revenue moving away from mobile networks to
>> providers which do not have the same regulatory obligations or cost
>> structure. For example, in some countries, some LEO satellite providers do
>> not pay for the use of radio spectrum. These are important issues to
>> examine in their short, medium and long term impacts.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> Strand Consult’s global project for Broadband Cost Recovery and Business
>> Models <https://strandconsult.dk/category/fair-cost-recovery/> examines the
>> challenges for mobile telecom operators to build and run networks and the
>> set of solutions to improve return on investment.  A key region impacted by
>> LEO satellites is the Caribbean. Strand Consult’s report *“Gigabit
>> Caribbean: Closing the Investment Gap in Fixed and Mobile Networks”
>> <https://strandconsult.dk/gigabit-caribbean-closing-the-investment-gap-in-fixed-and-mobile-networks/>
>> *describes the inherent challenge to deliver return on investment in remote
>> areas with limited population and in the face of growing traffic from
>> outside providers which contribute zero financially to the local economy.
>> LEO satellites may be a double-edged sword in that they may provide
>> connectivity in an emergency, but they do not conform to local regulatory
>> requirements, nor do they participate locally financially.  The issue is
>> also relevant for rural broadband providers in the USA which Strand Consult
>> documented in its report “Broadband Cost Recovery: A Study of Business
>> Models for 50 Broadband Providers In 24 US States.”
>> <https://strandconsult.dk/broadband-cost-recovery-a-study-of-50-broadband-providers-in-24-us-states-new-report-from-strand-consult/>
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> *The Satellite Race to Reach the Phone.*
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> Among the various players in the Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite market,
>> Starlink <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-24-1193A1.pdf>, led by
>> Elon Musk’s SpaceX, has emerged as the frontrunner. With a network of
>> almost 7,000 satellites operating, 300+ (2nd generation or Gen2) satellites
>> have Direct-to-Cell capabilities
>> <https://www.theverge.com/2024/11/27/24307394/starlink-spacex-tmobile-direct-to-cell-satellite-fcc-approval?>.
>> SpaceX's spectrum regulatory approach outside the U.S. has been criticized
>> for not always adhering to local licensing frameworks (e.g., cases in
>> India, France, and South Africa). Its reliance on spectrum that local
>> regulators have not officially granted can create tensions with governments
>> and local telecom providers. Starlink operates a global satellite network
>> with thousands of satellites covering areas without always having lawful
>> access to the spectrum on which it provides services.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> This is an even more significant challenge regarding the regular cellular
>> spectrum used for traditional mobile cellular services licensed and used by
>> local telecommunication companies. Thus, it requires, at least, the
>> satellite operator to collaborate locally with telco operators who have the
>> usage rights of the cellular spectrum of interest. Despite these
>> challenges, Starlink’s aggressive strategy and innovative technology have
>> placed it light years ahead of competitors like Amazon’s Kuiper
>> <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-23-114A1.pdf> and Eutelsat’s
>> OneWeb <https://oneweb.net/>. As of January 2025, Amazon's Project Kuiper
>> has not yet launched
>> <https://techxplore.com/news/2024-07-amazon-kuiper-delays-satellite-timeline.html>
>> any operational satellites, including those with Direct-to-Cell (D2C)
>> capabilities. The project is still in development, with plans to deploy a
>> constellation of 3,236 LEO satellites to provide global broadband coverage.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> One of the most remarkable aspects of Starlink’s success is its ability to
>> build a functional global network without initial access to the necessary
>> spectrum. This bold approach has drawn comparisons to Jeff Bezos’ Kuiper
>> project, with Strand Consult humorously observing that while Bezos is still
>> setting up a “burger bar,” Musk is already running an “interstellar
>> McDonald’s.
>> 
>> In the report you can read about the companies that are advancing D2C
>> connectivity through LEO satellite constellations, aiming to connect
>> standard mobile devices directly to satellites.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> Among them, AST SpaceMobile
>> <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-24-756A1.pdf> has launched five
>> operational satellites, detailed in FCC filings, to deliver 4G and 5G
>> services globally, with plans to expand its network with up to 243
>> satellites. AST SpaceMobile's advanced phased-array antenna, BlueWalker 3
>> <https://ast-science.com/spacemobile-network/bluewalker-3/>, is one of the
>> most powerful in the industry required to deliver good quality services to
>> unmodified cellular consumer devices. Similarly, Lynk Global
>> <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-22-969A1.pdf> has deployed
>> satellites to provide coverage in remote areas, emphasizing partnerships
>> with telecom operators and regulatory approvals.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> Geespace <https://www.geespace.com/>, part of Geely Technology Group, has
>> launched 30 satellites in China and plans to expand to 72 by 2025,
>> targeting global broadband and D2C capabilities. The Qianfan ("Thousand
>> Sails") constellation
>> <https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/china-launches-first-satellites-constellation-rival-starlink-newspaper-reports-2024-08-05/>,
>> in intent and capabilities closest to SpaceX, is another Chinese initiative
>> that has deployed 54 satellites and aims for over 15,000 by 2030,
>> positioning itself as a major player in satellite-based communications. US
>> and Chinese initiatives drive significant advancements in D2C technology,
>> integrating satellite connectivity into everyday communications and
>> addressing global coverage challenges.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> *Some Takeaways.*
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> Direct-to-Cell LEO satellite networks face considerable technology hurdles
>> in providing services comparable to terrestrial cellular networks.
>> 
>> 
>>
>>   - *They must overcome substantial free-space path loss* and ensure
>>   uplink connectivity from low-power mobile devices with omnidirectional
>>   antennas.
>>   - Cellular devices transmit at low power (typically 23–30 dBm), making
>>   it *very challenging for uplink cellular signals* to reach satellites in
>>   LEO at 300–1,200 km altitudes, particularly if the cellular device is
>>   indoor.
>>   - Uplink signals from multiple devices within a satellite beam area can
>>   overlap, creating *interference that challenges the satellite’s ability
>>   to separate and process individual uplink signals*.
>>   - *Must address bandwidth limitations* and efficiently reuse spectrum
>>   while minimizing interference with terrestrial and other satellite 
>> networks.
>>   - Scaling globally may *require satellites to carry varied payload
>>   configurations to accommodate regional spectrum requirements*,
>>   increasing technical complexity and deployment expenses.
>>   - Operating on terrestrial frequencies *necessitates dynamic spectrum
>>   sharing and interference mitigation strategies*, especially in densely
>>   populated areas, limiting coverage efficiency and capacity.
>>   -
>> 
>> On the regulatory front, integrating D2C satellite services into existing
>> mobile ecosystems is complex. Spectrum licensing is a key issue, as
>> satellite operators must either share frequencies already allocated to
>> terrestrial mobile operators or secure dedicated satellite spectrum.
>> 
>> 
>>
>>   - *Securing access to shared or dedicated spectrum*, particularly
>>   negotiating with terrestrial operators to use licensed frequencies.
>>   - *Avoiding interference* between satellite and terrestrial networks
>>   requires detailed agreements and advanced spectrum management techniques.
>>   - *Navigating fragmented regulatory frameworks* in Europe, where
>>   national licensing requirements vary significantly.
>>   - The high administrative and operational *burden of scaling
>> globally* diminishes
>>   economic benefits, particularly in regions where terrestrial networks
>>   already dominate.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> The idea of D2C-capable satellite networks making terrestrial cellular
>> networks obsolete is ambitious but fraught with practical limitations.
>> While LEO satellites offer unparalleled reach in remote and underserved
>> areas, they struggle to match terrestrial networks’ capacity, reliability,
>> and low latency in urban and suburban environments. The high density of
>> base stations in terrestrial networks enables them to handle far greater
>> traffic volumes, especially for data-intensive applications.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> The regulatory and operational constraints surrounding using terrestrial
>> mobile frequencies for D2C services severely limit scalability. This
>> fragmentation makes it difficult to achieve global coverage seamlessly and
>> increases operational and economic inefficiencies. While D2C services hold
>> promise for addressing connectivity gaps in remote areas, their ability to
>> scale as a comprehensive alternative to terrestrial networks is hampered by
>> these challenges. Unless global regulatory harmonization or innovative
>> technical solutions emerge, D2C networks will likely remain a
>> complementary, sub-scale solution rather than a standalone replacement for
>> terrestrial mobile networks.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> The report *"Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make
>> Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?"*  is valuable for mobile operators
>> and their shareholders, policymakers, security and defense analysts,
>> network engineers, and other professionals.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> Let me know your feedback and questions.
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> Best regards,
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> John Strand
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> Strand Consult is an independent, privately owned consultancy company. Our
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>