[Starlink] Fwd: Here is the first edition of the report: Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?
Ulrich Speidel
u.speidel at auckland.ac.nz
Tue Feb 4 18:30:19 EST 2025
A bit more on this. Yesterday was the day of reckoning - the Samsung S25
series phones that were on top of One NZ's "satellite ready" list went
on sale.
So I couldn't resist looking at what was in store at the One NZ stores -
of these and the other approved phones. One NZ have 50 stores across 13
regions in NZ ("regions" as per their website). Here is what I found online:
* S25 Ultra: Theoretically available in 12 different versions (3
memory configs, 4 colours each). There seemed to be some
availability in the 256GB (lowest) config in most regions. Beyond
that, it got quite sparse. Four versions showed no stock anywhere,
another five showed only stores with low stock (which is often a
euphemism here for "our system shows that we have one but we can't
find it"). Only three models showed any stores that claimed to have
more than low stock. One model was in more than low stock in 17
stores, another in 30. For the 3rd model, only one store claimed
more than low stock. No model was available in more than half of One
NZ's 13 Auckland stores. A parallel importer sold the phone for the
same price, plus a NZ$500 gift voucher thrown in, with 9 out of the
12 models available at their Auckland stores, and each model
available at more than one store.
* S25+: One of the 8 possible versions of this model was available
from only two stores nationwide, with both showing low stock. The
parallel importer doesn't sell the S25+ at all.
* S25: Two out of 8 versions showed availability, but only of sorts.
One showed low stock in 10 stores, the other in one store only.
* S24 Ultra: Two versions on the website. One had stock in one store
only, with low stock in five others. The other version showed stock
in two stores, with low stock in four others. The parallel importer
had stock of one of the versions in all of its Auckland branches.
* S24+: satellite-ready ... but not actually advertised as being for
sale on the One NZ website.
* S24: satellite-ready ... but for sale on the One NZ website only,
not a store item.
* S24FE: Two versions here. The blue one showed sufficient stock in 3
stores nationwide, and low stock in 9 more. The other one showed
stock in 4 stores and low stock in another 21.
* S23 Ultra: satellite-ready ... but not actually advertised as being
for sale on the One NZ website.
* S23: satellite-ready ... but not actually advertised as being for
sale on the One NZ website.
* Z Flip 6: Theoretically available in three versions but only one
store, showing low stock. The parallel importer had plenty, at
NZ$322 less.
* Z Fold 6: Theoretically available in two versions but only one
store, showing low stock. The parallel importer had plenty, at
NZ$455 less.
* Oppo Find X8 Pro: Theoretically available in two versions but only
one store showed sufficient stock for only one of them. One version
was in low stock in 6 stores, the other also in 6 stores. Again, the
parallel importer had plenty.
So I went down to their Queen Street store (walking distance from my
office) yesterday, which is the closest they come to a flagship store
here. They were meant to have some stock according to the website.
The three sales staff there all wore T-shirts with "Starlink" and "One
NZ" logos on them. That said, two of them also wore vests / coats that
covered the logos on the T-shirt and only had a One NZ logo. This struck
me as a bit weird given that it's summer here (finally) and hot outside
and their aircon was not so cold. They had most of the satellite-capable
models on display with small signs next to them that said "satellite
ready" and "satellite TXT with an eligible plan", however the signs were
not very prominent and some were half-covered by other stuff.
I had to queue for about 30 minutes. None of the other customers in
front of me bought a satellite-capable phone. In fact, the only ones
that bought a phone were an elderly couple who bought a tiny one. When I
eventually got to talk to a staff member, he told me that yes they had
stock. He said that he'd pre-sold a Samsung S25 range phone the day
before and that his colleague had sold one that morning. I asked him
whether they sold a lot of them and he said no, never. I asked whether
there had been a queue outside in the morning when they opened and he
said again no.
Who knows, maybe the situation is different when you order the phone
online, but given how busy their shop was, you'd think they'd want to
market it there.
I don't know, but this is more reminiscent of the supply situation in
East German shops in the late 1980's under socialism than the dawn of a
new age. Clearly getting hold of the hardware wholesale isn't an issue
as their parallel importing competitor shows. And I guess if I was under
criminal charges for false advertising, I probably wouldn't want to be
caught advertising phones that strictly speaking I'm not able to sell in
most of my shops. And then advertise a service that comes with these
phones that "may not work" with phones bought elsewhere.
On 30/01/2025 9:24 am, Ulrich Speidel wrote:
>
> I've been asked a few times what user experience is like with the
> Starlink cellular service now available through One NZ (formerly
> Vodafone) in New Zealand.
>
> The short answer is that I don't know (any users).
>
> What I do know is that in November, the NZ Commerce Commission filed
> criminal charges against One NZ over their advertising of "100% mobile
> coverage":
>
> https://comcom.govt.nz/news-and-media/media-releases/2024/comcom-takes-legal-action-over-one-nzs-100-coverage-claims-for-spacex-service
>
> Yep they ran TV ads. The service launched to great fanfare in
> December. TXT only of course. Now the information about the satellite
> service is almost a bit difficult to find on the One NZ website.
>
> It gets weirder, though. The only phones approved for the service at
> the moment are their top end Android models, with 8 Samsung and one
> OPPO model approved as of this morning. No iphones. Of the 8 Samsung
> models, three are from the S25 series and can only be pre-ordered. Two
> are from the S23 series, and aren't available for sale on their
> website. In the small print, it says "Phones purchased outside of New
> Zealand (including parallel imports) may not be compatible." Read: If
> you didn't buy your phone from us, we're under no obligation to make
> it work. I guess this probably means that if you bought your high end
> phone from a discounter (parallel import), then its IMEI won't be on
> One NZ's approved list. Given that the newly approved phones that
> aren't for sale anymore were several hundred dollars cheaper at the
> parallel import discounters, it's probably a good guess that there
> aren't all that many One NZ devices from that range out there.
>
> Now just buying one of these devices from them doesn't get you the
> service though. You also need a 36 month plan from them. These come
> essentially in two sizes. One that starts at about twice the rate of
> the monthly prepay plan that keeps me chugging over here. If you want
> that, you have to pay a premium on the phone. The other is about three
> times the rate and gets you the phone cheapest (but still hundreds of
> bucks more than at the parallel importers).
>
> But let's assume you have all that in place. Now where do you go to
> try it all out? This isn't the US. One NZ's terrestrial network covers
> almost everywhere with people or roads. Look for yourself:
> https://one.nz/network/coverage/
>
> Those who go where it doesn't reach tend to be tourists, poor as mice,
> or farmers with land mobile radio. None of them are likely buyers of
> high end phones or can afford an expensive contract.
>
> But even if they do get to TXT, in One NZ's own words:
>
>> One NZ Satellite TXT offers an extra layer of protection to existing
>> safety devices. If you're planning a visit to somewhere remote, it's
>> always recommended to take a /personal locator beacon/ in case of
>> emergency.
> I have one of these. Cost about the difference between an eligible
> phone and its parallel import version, and doesn't need a contract. A
> mate of mine works next door to the NZ Rescue Coordination Centre and
> says they're now rescuing people where previously they wouldn't have
> even found the bodies.
> On 30/01/2025 3:05 am, David Lang via Starlink wrote:
>> as I wrote back in 2013
>> https://www.usenix.org/publications/login/april-2013-volume-38-number-2/wireless-means-radio
>> when you have a lot of people to support, airtime is your most
>> limiting factor, the smaller the area you are covering from one
>> station, the more users you can support
>>
>> So just like cell phone companies deploy microcells in dense cities,
>> the regular cell service are microcells compared to anything you can
>> do from orbit.
>>
>> But it may be tht traditional mobile networks won't have to setup
>> stations every few miles along highways and can just concentrate on
>> the denser areas (which are also cheaper to serve)
>>
>> now to go read the pdf ;-)
>>
>> David Lang
>>
>> On Wed, 29 Jan 2025, Hesham ElBakoury via Starlink wrote:
>>
>>> Date: Wed, 29 Jan 2025 04:29:45 -0800
>>> From: Hesham ElBakoury via Starlink <starlink at lists.bufferbloat.net>
>>> Reply-To: Hesham ElBakoury <helbakoury at gmail.com>
>>> To: Dave Taht via Starlink <starlink at lists.bufferbloat.net>,
>>> 5grm-satellite at ieee.org
>>> Subject: [Starlink] Fwd: Here is the first edition of the report:
>>> Will LEO
>>> Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile
>>> Networks
>>> Obsolete?
>>>
>>> ---------- Forwarded message ---------
>>> From: John Strand <js at strandconsult.dk>
>>> Date: Wed, Jan 29, 2025, 4:23 AM
>>> Subject: Here is the first edition of the report: Will LEO Satellite
>>> Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?
>>> To: <info at strandconsult.dk>
>>>
>>>
>>> Dear Colleague,
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Here is the first edition of the report: *“Will LEO Satellite
>>> Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks
>>> Obsolete?”*
>>> The report is a part of a signature series in Strand Consult´s Global
>>> Project for Business Models for Broadband Cost Recovery
>>> <https://strandconsult.dk/category/fair-cost-recovery/>.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> This new report offers a comprehensive analysis of the role of
>>> Low-Earth
>>> Orbit (LEO) satellites in the telecommunications industry. It
>>> examines the
>>> advancements in satellite technology, the challenges in achieving
>>> service
>>> parity with terrestrial networks, and the implications for global
>>> connectivity. It explores the technical, economic, and regulatory
>>> factors
>>> shaping the deployment of Direct-to-Cell satellite services and
>>> evaluates
>>> whether these networks can complement or replace traditional cellular
>>> infrastructure.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> This report aims to illuminate the forces driving developments in LEO
>>> satellite networks, the challenges they face, and how these
>>> technologies
>>> will likely shape the telecommunications industry's future. It aims to
>>> provide inspiration and insights that can be used to frame discussions
>>> about the trends and transformations affecting connectivity on a global
>>> scale.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> When reading recent media and comments on various media postings,
>>> one can
>>> quickly get the impression that satellites will replace traditional
>>> mobile
>>> networks. This narrative often simplifies a complex issue, creating the
>>> perception that satellite technology is a universal solution to global
>>> connectivity challenges. However, a more pragmatic view reveals that
>>> satellite networks like those operated by Starlink offer revolutionary
>>> opportunities but are unlikely to make terrestrial mobile networks
>>> obsolete. Instead, these technologies will coexist, each serving
>>> distinct
>>> roles in the communication ecosystem.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> There are many mobile telecom operators which fear that low earth orbit
>>> (LEO) satellite networks like Starlink and others could impact their
>>> business in a negative way like over the top (OTT) providers.
>>> Indeed, there
>>> is a concern about traffic and revenue moving away from mobile
>>> networks to
>>> providers which do not have the same regulatory obligations or cost
>>> structure. For example, in some countries, some LEO satellite
>>> providers do
>>> not pay for the use of radio spectrum. These are important issues to
>>> examine in their short, medium and long term impacts.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Strand Consult’s global project for Broadband Cost Recovery and
>>> Business
>>> Models <https://strandconsult.dk/category/fair-cost-recovery/>
>>> examines the
>>> challenges for mobile telecom operators to build and run networks
>>> and the
>>> set of solutions to improve return on investment. A key region
>>> impacted by
>>> LEO satellites is the Caribbean. Strand Consult’s report *“Gigabit
>>> Caribbean: Closing the Investment Gap in Fixed and Mobile Networks”
>>> <https://strandconsult.dk/gigabit-caribbean-closing-the-investment-gap-in-fixed-and-mobile-networks/>
>>>
>>> *describes the inherent challenge to deliver return on investment in
>>> remote
>>> areas with limited population and in the face of growing traffic from
>>> outside providers which contribute zero financially to the local
>>> economy.
>>> LEO satellites may be a double-edged sword in that they may provide
>>> connectivity in an emergency, but they do not conform to local
>>> regulatory
>>> requirements, nor do they participate locally financially. The issue is
>>> also relevant for rural broadband providers in the USA which Strand
>>> Consult
>>> documented in its report “Broadband Cost Recovery: A Study of Business
>>> Models for 50 Broadband Providers In 24 US States.”
>>> <https://strandconsult.dk/broadband-cost-recovery-a-study-of-50-broadband-providers-in-24-us-states-new-report-from-strand-consult/>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> *The Satellite Race to Reach the Phone.*
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Among the various players in the Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite
>>> market,
>>> Starlink <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-24-1193A1.pdf>,
>>> led by
>>> Elon Musk’s SpaceX, has emerged as the frontrunner. With a network of
>>> almost 7,000 satellites operating, 300+ (2nd generation or Gen2)
>>> satellites
>>> have Direct-to-Cell capabilities
>>> <https://www.theverge.com/2024/11/27/24307394/starlink-spacex-tmobile-direct-to-cell-satellite-fcc-approval?>.
>>>
>>> SpaceX's spectrum regulatory approach outside the U.S. has been
>>> criticized
>>> for not always adhering to local licensing frameworks (e.g., cases in
>>> India, France, and South Africa). Its reliance on spectrum that local
>>> regulators have not officially granted can create tensions with
>>> governments
>>> and local telecom providers. Starlink operates a global satellite
>>> network
>>> with thousands of satellites covering areas without always having
>>> lawful
>>> access to the spectrum on which it provides services.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> This is an even more significant challenge regarding the regular
>>> cellular
>>> spectrum used for traditional mobile cellular services licensed and
>>> used by
>>> local telecommunication companies. Thus, it requires, at least, the
>>> satellite operator to collaborate locally with telco operators who
>>> have the
>>> usage rights of the cellular spectrum of interest. Despite these
>>> challenges, Starlink’s aggressive strategy and innovative technology
>>> have
>>> placed it light years ahead of competitors like Amazon’s Kuiper
>>> <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-23-114A1.pdf> and
>>> Eutelsat’s
>>> OneWeb <https://oneweb.net/>. As of January 2025, Amazon's Project
>>> Kuiper
>>> has not yet launched
>>> <https://techxplore.com/news/2024-07-amazon-kuiper-delays-satellite-timeline.html>
>>>
>>> any operational satellites, including those with Direct-to-Cell (D2C)
>>> capabilities. The project is still in development, with plans to
>>> deploy a
>>> constellation of 3,236 LEO satellites to provide global broadband
>>> coverage.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> One of the most remarkable aspects of Starlink’s success is its
>>> ability to
>>> build a functional global network without initial access to the
>>> necessary
>>> spectrum. This bold approach has drawn comparisons to Jeff Bezos’
>>> Kuiper
>>> project, with Strand Consult humorously observing that while Bezos
>>> is still
>>> setting up a “burger bar,” Musk is already running an “interstellar
>>> McDonald’s.
>>>
>>> In the report you can read about the companies that are advancing D2C
>>> connectivity through LEO satellite constellations, aiming to connect
>>> standard mobile devices directly to satellites.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Among them, AST SpaceMobile
>>> <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-24-756A1.pdf> has
>>> launched five
>>> operational satellites, detailed in FCC filings, to deliver 4G and 5G
>>> services globally, with plans to expand its network with up to 243
>>> satellites. AST SpaceMobile's advanced phased-array antenna,
>>> BlueWalker 3
>>> <https://ast-science.com/spacemobile-network/bluewalker-3/>, is one
>>> of the
>>> most powerful in the industry required to deliver good quality
>>> services to
>>> unmodified cellular consumer devices. Similarly, Lynk Global
>>> <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-22-969A1.pdf> has deployed
>>> satellites to provide coverage in remote areas, emphasizing
>>> partnerships
>>> with telecom operators and regulatory approvals.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Geespace <https://www.geespace.com/>, part of Geely Technology
>>> Group, has
>>> launched 30 satellites in China and plans to expand to 72 by 2025,
>>> targeting global broadband and D2C capabilities. The Qianfan ("Thousand
>>> Sails") constellation
>>> <https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/china-launches-first-satellites-constellation-rival-starlink-newspaper-reports-2024-08-05/>,
>>>
>>> in intent and capabilities closest to SpaceX, is another Chinese
>>> initiative
>>> that has deployed 54 satellites and aims for over 15,000 by 2030,
>>> positioning itself as a major player in satellite-based
>>> communications. US
>>> and Chinese initiatives drive significant advancements in D2C
>>> technology,
>>> integrating satellite connectivity into everyday communications and
>>> addressing global coverage challenges.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> *Some Takeaways.*
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Direct-to-Cell LEO satellite networks face considerable technology
>>> hurdles
>>> in providing services comparable to terrestrial cellular networks.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> - *They must overcome substantial free-space path loss* and ensure
>>> uplink connectivity from low-power mobile devices with
>>> omnidirectional
>>> antennas.
>>> - Cellular devices transmit at low power (typically 23–30 dBm),
>>> making
>>> it *very challenging for uplink cellular signals* to reach
>>> satellites in
>>> LEO at 300–1,200 km altitudes, particularly if the cellular device is
>>> indoor.
>>> - Uplink signals from multiple devices within a satellite beam
>>> area can
>>> overlap, creating *interference that challenges the satellite’s
>>> ability
>>> to separate and process individual uplink signals*.
>>> - *Must address bandwidth limitations* and efficiently reuse spectrum
>>> while minimizing interference with terrestrial and other satellite
>>> networks.
>>> - Scaling globally may *require satellites to carry varied payload
>>> configurations to accommodate regional spectrum requirements*,
>>> increasing technical complexity and deployment expenses.
>>> - Operating on terrestrial frequencies *necessitates dynamic spectrum
>>> sharing and interference mitigation strategies*, especially in
>>> densely
>>> populated areas, limiting coverage efficiency and capacity.
>>> -
>>>
>>> On the regulatory front, integrating D2C satellite services into
>>> existing
>>> mobile ecosystems is complex. Spectrum licensing is a key issue, as
>>> satellite operators must either share frequencies already allocated to
>>> terrestrial mobile operators or secure dedicated satellite spectrum.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> - *Securing access to shared or dedicated spectrum*, particularly
>>> negotiating with terrestrial operators to use licensed frequencies.
>>> - *Avoiding interference* between satellite and terrestrial networks
>>> requires detailed agreements and advanced spectrum management
>>> techniques.
>>> - *Navigating fragmented regulatory frameworks* in Europe, where
>>> national licensing requirements vary significantly.
>>> - The high administrative and operational *burden of scaling
>>> globally* diminishes
>>> economic benefits, particularly in regions where terrestrial networks
>>> already dominate.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> The idea of D2C-capable satellite networks making terrestrial cellular
>>> networks obsolete is ambitious but fraught with practical limitations.
>>> While LEO satellites offer unparalleled reach in remote and underserved
>>> areas, they struggle to match terrestrial networks’ capacity,
>>> reliability,
>>> and low latency in urban and suburban environments. The high density of
>>> base stations in terrestrial networks enables them to handle far
>>> greater
>>> traffic volumes, especially for data-intensive applications.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> The regulatory and operational constraints surrounding using
>>> terrestrial
>>> mobile frequencies for D2C services severely limit scalability. This
>>> fragmentation makes it difficult to achieve global coverage
>>> seamlessly and
>>> increases operational and economic inefficiencies. While D2C
>>> services hold
>>> promise for addressing connectivity gaps in remote areas, their
>>> ability to
>>> scale as a comprehensive alternative to terrestrial networks is
>>> hampered by
>>> these challenges. Unless global regulatory harmonization or innovative
>>> technical solutions emerge, D2C networks will likely remain a
>>> complementary, sub-scale solution rather than a standalone
>>> replacement for
>>> terrestrial mobile networks.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> The report *"Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make
>>> Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?"* is valuable for mobile
>>> operators
>>> and their shareholders, policymakers, security and defense analysts,
>>> network engineers, and other professionals.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Let me know your feedback and questions.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Best regards,
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> John Strand
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Strand Consult is an independent, privately owned consultancy
>>> company. Our
>>> main focus is in the wireless sector, what it looks like, how it is
>>> developing and how it influences a number of other sectors. Through our
>>> research, reports, workshops and consulting, we help create and
>>> expand our
>>> customers’ revenue streams by maximising the use of all the new
>>> possibilities and opportunities that arise with new technologies and
>>> business strategies. About Strand Consult
>>> <http://www.strandreports.com>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Our primary customers are national and international mobile
>>> operators and
>>> our list of customers currently includes over 170 mobile operators
>>> spread
>>> across Europe, South America, North America, Australia, Asia and
>>> Africa.
>>> Based on our research and work with mobile operators we additionally
>>> help
>>> many customers in the technology industry and the media sector who
>>> want to
>>> learn more about how the telecom industry is influencing their
>>> industry.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> We are regarded as one of the leading authorities on mobile
>>> technologies,
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>>> are
>>> both strategic and cross-disciplinary in their outlook. They do not
>>> focus
>>> on a single area, but always examine subjects from five different
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>>> operators, technology providers, distribution, content providers and
>>> which
>>> existing or new business strategies will have the greatest
>>> probability of
>>> being successful. Most of our customers have saved a great deal of
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>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Strand Consult is the supplier of some of the most sought after
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>>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
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> --
> ****************************************************************
> Dr. Ulrich Speidel
>
> School of Computer Science
>
> Room 303S.594 (City Campus)
>
> The University of Auckland
> u.speidel at auckland.ac.nz
> http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/
> ****************************************************************
>
>
>
--
****************************************************************
Dr. Ulrich Speidel
School of Computer Science
Room 303S.594 (City Campus)
The University of Auckland
u.speidel at auckland.ac.nz
http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/
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