[Starlink] Fwd: Here is the first edition of the report: Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?

Wed Jan 29 15:24:11 EST 2025

I've been asked a few times what user experience is like with the 
Starlink cellular service now available through One NZ (formerly 
Vodafone) in New Zealand.

The short answer is that I don't know (any users).

What I do know is that in November, the NZ Commerce Commission filed 
criminal charges against One NZ over their advertising of "100% mobile 
coverage":

https://comcom.govt.nz/news-and-media/media-releases/2024/comcom-takes-legal-action-over-one-nzs-100-coverage-claims-for-spacex-service

Yep they ran TV ads. The service launched to great fanfare in December. 
TXT only of course. Now the information about the satellite service is 
almost a bit difficult to find on the One NZ website.

It gets weirder, though. The only phones approved for the service at the 
moment are their top end Android models, with 8 Samsung and one OPPO 
model approved as of this morning. No iphones. Of the 8 Samsung models, 
three are from the S25 series and can only be pre-ordered. Two are from 
the S23 series, and aren't available for sale on their website. In the 
small print, it says "Phones purchased outside of New Zealand (including 
parallel imports) may not be compatible." Read: If you didn't buy your 
phone from us, we're under no obligation to make it work. I guess this 
probably means that if you bought your high end phone from a discounter 
(parallel import), then its IMEI won't be on One NZ's approved list. 
Given that the newly approved phones that aren't for sale anymore were 
several hundred dollars cheaper at the parallel import discounters, it's 
probably a good guess that there aren't all that many One NZ devices 
from that range out there.

Now just buying one of these devices from them doesn't get you the 
service though. You also need a 36 month plan from them. These come 
essentially in two sizes. One that starts at about twice the rate of the 
monthly prepay plan that keeps me chugging over here. If you want that, 
you have to pay a premium on the phone. The other is about three times 
the rate and gets you the phone cheapest (but still hundreds of bucks 
more than at the parallel importers).

But let's assume you have all that in place. Now where do you go to try 
it all out? This isn't the US. One NZ's terrestrial network covers 
almost everywhere with people or roads. Look for yourself: 
https://one.nz/network/coverage/

Those who go where it doesn't reach tend to be tourists, poor as mice, 
or farmers with land mobile radio. None of them are likely buyers of 
high end phones or can afford an expensive contract.

But even if they do get to TXT, in One NZ's own words:

> One NZ Satellite TXT offers an extra layer of protection to existing 
> safety devices. If you're planning a visit to somewhere remote, it's 
> always recommended to take a /personal locator beacon/ in case of 
> emergency.
I have one of these. Cost about the difference between an eligible phone 
and its parallel import version, and doesn't need a contract. A mate of 
mine works next door to the NZ Rescue Coordination Centre and says 
they're now rescuing people where previously they wouldn't have even 
found the bodies.

On 30/01/2025 3:05 am, David Lang via Starlink wrote:
> as I wrote back in 2013 
> https://www.usenix.org/publications/login/april-2013-volume-38-number-2/wireless-means-radio
> when you have a lot of people to support, airtime is your most 
> limiting factor, the smaller the area you are covering from one 
> station, the more users you can support
>
> So just like cell phone companies deploy microcells in dense cities, 
> the regular cell service are microcells compared to anything you can 
> do from orbit.
>
> But it may be tht traditional mobile networks won't have to setup 
> stations every few miles along highways and can just concentrate on 
> the denser areas (which are also cheaper to serve)
>
> now to go read the pdf ;-)
>
> David Lang
>
> On Wed, 29 Jan 2025, Hesham ElBakoury via Starlink wrote:
>
>> Date: Wed, 29 Jan 2025 04:29:45 -0800
>> From: Hesham ElBakoury via Starlink <starlink at lists.bufferbloat.net>
>> Reply-To: Hesham ElBakoury <helbakoury at gmail.com>
>> To: Dave Taht via Starlink <starlink at lists.bufferbloat.net>,
>> 5grm-satellite at ieee.org
>> Subject: [Starlink] Fwd: Here is the first edition of the report: 
>> Will LEO
>>     Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile 
>> Networks
>>     Obsolete?
>>
>> ---------- Forwarded message ---------
>> From: John Strand <js at strandconsult.dk>
>> Date: Wed, Jan 29, 2025, 4:23 AM
>> Subject: Here is the first edition of the report: Will LEO Satellite
>> Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?
>> To: <info at strandconsult.dk>
>>
>>
>> Dear Colleague,
>>
>>
>>
>> Here is the first edition of the report: *“Will LEO Satellite
>> Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?”*
>> The report is a part of a signature series in Strand Consult´s Global
>> Project for Business Models for Broadband Cost Recovery
>> <https://strandconsult.dk/category/fair-cost-recovery/>.
>>
>>
>>
>> This new report offers a comprehensive analysis of the role of Low-Earth
>> Orbit (LEO) satellites in the telecommunications industry. It 
>> examines the
>> advancements in satellite technology, the challenges in achieving 
>> service
>> parity with terrestrial networks, and the implications for global
>> connectivity. It explores the technical, economic, and regulatory 
>> factors
>> shaping the deployment of Direct-to-Cell satellite services and 
>> evaluates
>> whether these networks can complement or replace traditional cellular
>> infrastructure.
>>
>>
>>
>> This report aims to illuminate the forces driving developments in LEO
>> satellite networks, the challenges they face, and how these technologies
>> will likely shape the telecommunications industry's future. It aims to
>> provide inspiration and insights that can be used to frame discussions
>> about the trends and transformations affecting connectivity on a global
>> scale.
>>
>>
>>
>> When reading recent media and comments on various media postings, one 
>> can
>> quickly get the impression that satellites will replace traditional 
>> mobile
>> networks. This narrative often simplifies a complex issue, creating the
>> perception that satellite technology is a universal solution to global
>> connectivity challenges. However, a more pragmatic view reveals that
>> satellite networks like those operated by Starlink offer revolutionary
>> opportunities but are unlikely to make terrestrial mobile networks
>> obsolete. Instead, these technologies will coexist, each serving 
>> distinct
>> roles in the communication ecosystem.
>>
>>
>>
>> There are many mobile telecom operators which fear that low earth orbit
>> (LEO) satellite networks like Starlink and others could impact their
>> business in a negative way like over the top (OTT) providers. Indeed, 
>> there
>> is a concern about traffic and revenue moving away from mobile 
>> networks to
>> providers which do not have the same regulatory obligations or cost
>> structure. For example, in some countries, some LEO satellite 
>> providers do
>> not pay for the use of radio spectrum. These are important issues to
>> examine in their short, medium and long term impacts.
>>
>>
>>
>> Strand Consult’s global project for Broadband Cost Recovery and Business
>> Models <https://strandconsult.dk/category/fair-cost-recovery/> 
>> examines the
>> challenges for mobile telecom operators to build and run networks and 
>> the
>> set of solutions to improve return on investment.  A key region 
>> impacted by
>> LEO satellites is the Caribbean. Strand Consult’s report *“Gigabit
>> Caribbean: Closing the Investment Gap in Fixed and Mobile Networks”
>> <https://strandconsult.dk/gigabit-caribbean-closing-the-investment-gap-in-fixed-and-mobile-networks/> 
>>
>> *describes the inherent challenge to deliver return on investment in 
>> remote
>> areas with limited population and in the face of growing traffic from
>> outside providers which contribute zero financially to the local 
>> economy.
>> LEO satellites may be a double-edged sword in that they may provide
>> connectivity in an emergency, but they do not conform to local 
>> regulatory
>> requirements, nor do they participate locally financially.  The issue is
>> also relevant for rural broadband providers in the USA which Strand 
>> Consult
>> documented in its report “Broadband Cost Recovery: A Study of Business
>> Models for 50 Broadband Providers In 24 US States.”
>> <https://strandconsult.dk/broadband-cost-recovery-a-study-of-50-broadband-providers-in-24-us-states-new-report-from-strand-consult/> 
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> *The Satellite Race to Reach the Phone.*
>>
>>
>>
>> Among the various players in the Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite market,
>> Starlink <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-24-1193A1.pdf>, 
>> led by
>> Elon Musk’s SpaceX, has emerged as the frontrunner. With a network of
>> almost 7,000 satellites operating, 300+ (2nd generation or Gen2) 
>> satellites
>> have Direct-to-Cell capabilities
>> <https://www.theverge.com/2024/11/27/24307394/starlink-spacex-tmobile-direct-to-cell-satellite-fcc-approval?>. 
>>
>> SpaceX's spectrum regulatory approach outside the U.S. has been 
>> criticized
>> for not always adhering to local licensing frameworks (e.g., cases in
>> India, France, and South Africa). Its reliance on spectrum that local
>> regulators have not officially granted can create tensions with 
>> governments
>> and local telecom providers. Starlink operates a global satellite 
>> network
>> with thousands of satellites covering areas without always having lawful
>> access to the spectrum on which it provides services.
>>
>>
>>
>> This is an even more significant challenge regarding the regular 
>> cellular
>> spectrum used for traditional mobile cellular services licensed and 
>> used by
>> local telecommunication companies. Thus, it requires, at least, the
>> satellite operator to collaborate locally with telco operators who 
>> have the
>> usage rights of the cellular spectrum of interest. Despite these
>> challenges, Starlink’s aggressive strategy and innovative technology 
>> have
>> placed it light years ahead of competitors like Amazon’s Kuiper
>> <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-23-114A1.pdf> and Eutelsat’s
>> OneWeb <https://oneweb.net/>. As of January 2025, Amazon's Project 
>> Kuiper
>> has not yet launched
>> <https://techxplore.com/news/2024-07-amazon-kuiper-delays-satellite-timeline.html> 
>>
>> any operational satellites, including those with Direct-to-Cell (D2C)
>> capabilities. The project is still in development, with plans to 
>> deploy a
>> constellation of 3,236 LEO satellites to provide global broadband 
>> coverage.
>>
>>
>>
>> One of the most remarkable aspects of Starlink’s success is its 
>> ability to
>> build a functional global network without initial access to the 
>> necessary
>> spectrum. This bold approach has drawn comparisons to Jeff Bezos’ Kuiper
>> project, with Strand Consult humorously observing that while Bezos is 
>> still
>> setting up a “burger bar,” Musk is already running an “interstellar
>> McDonald’s.
>>
>> In the report you can read about the companies that are advancing D2C
>> connectivity through LEO satellite constellations, aiming to connect
>> standard mobile devices directly to satellites.
>>
>>
>>
>> Among them, AST SpaceMobile
>> <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-24-756A1.pdf> has 
>> launched five
>> operational satellites, detailed in FCC filings, to deliver 4G and 5G
>> services globally, with plans to expand its network with up to 243
>> satellites. AST SpaceMobile's advanced phased-array antenna, 
>> BlueWalker 3
>> <https://ast-science.com/spacemobile-network/bluewalker-3/>, is one 
>> of the
>> most powerful in the industry required to deliver good quality 
>> services to
>> unmodified cellular consumer devices. Similarly, Lynk Global
>> <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-22-969A1.pdf> has deployed
>> satellites to provide coverage in remote areas, emphasizing partnerships
>> with telecom operators and regulatory approvals.
>>
>>
>>
>> Geespace <https://www.geespace.com/>, part of Geely Technology Group, 
>> has
>> launched 30 satellites in China and plans to expand to 72 by 2025,
>> targeting global broadband and D2C capabilities. The Qianfan ("Thousand
>> Sails") constellation
>> <https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/china-launches-first-satellites-constellation-rival-starlink-newspaper-reports-2024-08-05/>, 
>>
>> in intent and capabilities closest to SpaceX, is another Chinese 
>> initiative
>> that has deployed 54 satellites and aims for over 15,000 by 2030,
>> positioning itself as a major player in satellite-based 
>> communications. US
>> and Chinese initiatives drive significant advancements in D2C 
>> technology,
>> integrating satellite connectivity into everyday communications and
>> addressing global coverage challenges.
>>
>>
>>
>> *Some Takeaways.*
>>
>>
>>
>> Direct-to-Cell LEO satellite networks face considerable technology 
>> hurdles
>> in providing services comparable to terrestrial cellular networks.
>>
>>
>>
>>   - *They must overcome substantial free-space path loss* and ensure
>>   uplink connectivity from low-power mobile devices with omnidirectional
>>   antennas.
>>   - Cellular devices transmit at low power (typically 23–30 dBm), making
>>   it *very challenging for uplink cellular signals* to reach 
>> satellites in
>>   LEO at 300–1,200 km altitudes, particularly if the cellular device is
>>   indoor.
>>   - Uplink signals from multiple devices within a satellite beam area 
>> can
>>   overlap, creating *interference that challenges the satellite’s 
>> ability
>>   to separate and process individual uplink signals*.
>>   - *Must address bandwidth limitations* and efficiently reuse spectrum
>>   while minimizing interference with terrestrial and other satellite 
>> networks.
>>   - Scaling globally may *require satellites to carry varied payload
>>   configurations to accommodate regional spectrum requirements*,
>>   increasing technical complexity and deployment expenses.
>>   - Operating on terrestrial frequencies *necessitates dynamic spectrum
>>   sharing and interference mitigation strategies*, especially in densely
>>   populated areas, limiting coverage efficiency and capacity.
>>   -
>>
>> On the regulatory front, integrating D2C satellite services into 
>> existing
>> mobile ecosystems is complex. Spectrum licensing is a key issue, as
>> satellite operators must either share frequencies already allocated to
>> terrestrial mobile operators or secure dedicated satellite spectrum.
>>
>>
>>
>>   - *Securing access to shared or dedicated spectrum*, particularly
>>   negotiating with terrestrial operators to use licensed frequencies.
>>   - *Avoiding interference* between satellite and terrestrial networks
>>   requires detailed agreements and advanced spectrum management 
>> techniques.
>>   - *Navigating fragmented regulatory frameworks* in Europe, where
>>   national licensing requirements vary significantly.
>>   - The high administrative and operational *burden of scaling
>> globally* diminishes
>>   economic benefits, particularly in regions where terrestrial networks
>>   already dominate.
>>
>>
>>
>> The idea of D2C-capable satellite networks making terrestrial cellular
>> networks obsolete is ambitious but fraught with practical limitations.
>> While LEO satellites offer unparalleled reach in remote and underserved
>> areas, they struggle to match terrestrial networks’ capacity, 
>> reliability,
>> and low latency in urban and suburban environments. The high density of
>> base stations in terrestrial networks enables them to handle far greater
>> traffic volumes, especially for data-intensive applications.
>>
>>
>>
>> The regulatory and operational constraints surrounding using terrestrial
>> mobile frequencies for D2C services severely limit scalability. This
>> fragmentation makes it difficult to achieve global coverage 
>> seamlessly and
>> increases operational and economic inefficiencies. While D2C services 
>> hold
>> promise for addressing connectivity gaps in remote areas, their 
>> ability to
>> scale as a comprehensive alternative to terrestrial networks is 
>> hampered by
>> these challenges. Unless global regulatory harmonization or innovative
>> technical solutions emerge, D2C networks will likely remain a
>> complementary, sub-scale solution rather than a standalone 
>> replacement for
>> terrestrial mobile networks.
>>
>>
>>
>> The report *"Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make
>> Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?"*  is valuable for mobile 
>> operators
>> and their shareholders, policymakers, security and defense analysts,
>> network engineers, and other professionals.
>>
>>
>>
>> Let me know your feedback and questions.
>>
>>
>>
>> Best regards,
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> John Strand
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> Strand Consult is an independent, privately owned consultancy 
>> company. Our
>> main focus is in the wireless sector, what it looks like, how it is
>> developing and how it influences a number of other sectors. Through our
>> research, reports, workshops and consulting, we help create and 
>> expand our
>> customers’ revenue streams by maximising the use of all the new
>> possibilities and opportunities that arise with new technologies and
>> business strategies. About Strand Consult <http://www.strandreports.com>
>>
>>
>>
>> Our primary customers are national and international mobile operators 
>> and
>> our list of customers currently includes over 170 mobile operators 
>> spread
>> across Europe, South America, North America, Australia, Asia and Africa.
>> Based on our research and work with mobile operators we additionally 
>> help
>> many customers in the technology industry and the media sector who 
>> want to
>> learn more about how the telecom industry is influencing their industry.
>>
>>
>>
>> We are regarded as one of the leading authorities on mobile 
>> technologies,
>> business and revenue models and distribution strategies. Our reports are
>> both strategic and cross-disciplinary in their outlook. They do not 
>> focus
>> on a single area, but always examine subjects from five different 
>> angles;
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>> which
>> existing or new business strategies will have the greatest 
>> probability of
>> being successful. Most of our customers have saved a great deal of 
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>>
>>
>>
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>>
>
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-- 
****************************************************************
Dr. Ulrich Speidel

School of Computer Science

Room 303S.594 (City Campus)

The University of Auckland
u.speidel at auckland.ac.nz 
http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/
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