[Starlink] Fwd: Here is the first edition of the report: Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?
Ulrich Speidel
u.speidel at auckland.ac.nz
Wed Jan 29 23:15:18 EST 2025
Read: cheap phones have noisy receivers or crappy antennas, right?
The macro cell effect you describe is well known here - I typically
teach this in class to my students here in Auckland. Many of them live
in the CBD, where there's a 5G mast at every corner, so their batteries
last forever. I then ask them whether they've ever driven down to
Wellington (700 km or so through some fairly wap-wappy stretches of
road) and quite a few hands go up. I then ask them whether anyone
noticed that their phone battery went flat on the trip and most of the
same hands go up. In fact, I suspect that the Wellington branch of a
major parallel import discounter here does half of its business with
folk who've driven down and think their battery is broken and they need
a new phone.
On 30/01/2025 4:27 pm, Mike Puchol via Starlink wrote:
> The report touches on the thorny topic of the uplink, however, IMHO it
> leaves out one important consideration: battery life. The assumptions
> on link budget work on the basis of the UE employing full power at the
> full duty cycle, which would result in a dramatic reduction in battery
> life of the device.
> If you have traveled to certain African countries, where mobile
> networks rely on large and macro cells, rather than densification (for
> cost reasons), you will have already experienced this, where your
> smartphone's battery seems to die faster (it does!), as it's working
> harder to reach the towers.
> I'll add to this something that Loon learned, and which was published
> in the Loon Library (page 180), in regards to the quality of devices
> found in the field:
> "An issue with these low-priced phones is that their LTE radio
> performance is significantly worse than the phones Loon used during
> the development and testing of its
> LTE subsystems. This performance readjusted Loon’s expectations for
> the number
> of users that could be serviced, the number of GBs that could be
> delivered, and from
> which environments the users could successfully connect to Loon."
> It is a fascinating read:
> https://storage.googleapis.com/x-prod.appspot.com/files/The%20Loon%20Library.pdf
>
> Best,
> Mike
>> On 29/01/2025 14:09 CET Vint Cerf via Starlink
>> <starlink at lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:
>> thanks for sharing this analysis with which I resonate. I doubt that
>> the LEO constellations will scale to the same extent that
>> ground-based cellular systems have. However, they will take some
>> traffic. Prices might also be an issue. Interestingly, video
>> conferencing over the Internet is a substitute for traditional
>> telephony and comes naturally thanks to the digital nature of the
>> transmission.
>> v
>>
>> On Wed, Jan 29, 2025 at 7:30 AM Hesham ElBakoury via Starlink
>> <starlink at lists.bufferbloat.net> wrote:
>>
>>
>> ---------- Forwarded message ---------
>> From: *John Strand* <js at strandconsult.dk>
>> Date: Wed, Jan 29, 2025, 4:23 AM
>> Subject: Here is the first edition of the report: Will LEO
>> Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile
>> Networks Obsolete?
>> To: <info at strandconsult.dk>
>>
>>
>> Dear Colleague,
>>
>> Here is the first edition of the report: *“Will LEO Satellite
>> Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks
>> Obsolete?”* The report is a part of a signature series in Strand
>> Consult´s Global Project for Business Models for Broadband Cost
>> Recovery <https://strandconsult.dk/category/fair-cost-recovery/>.
>>
>> This new report offers a comprehensive analysis of the role of
>> Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites in the telecommunications
>> industry. It examines the advancements in satellite technology,
>> the challenges in achieving service parity with terrestrial
>> networks, and the implications for global connectivity. It
>> explores the technical, economic, and regulatory factors shaping
>> the deployment of Direct-to-Cell satellite services and evaluates
>> whether these networks can complement or replace traditional
>> cellular infrastructure.
>>
>> This report aims to illuminate the forces driving developments in
>> LEO satellite networks, the challenges they face, and how these
>> technologies will likely shape the telecommunications industry's
>> future. It aims to provide inspiration and insights that can be
>> used to frame discussions about the trends and transformations
>> affecting connectivity on a global scale.
>>
>> When reading recent media and comments on various media postings,
>> one can quickly get the impression that satellites will replace
>> traditional mobile networks. This narrative often simplifies a
>> complex issue, creating the perception that satellite technology
>> is a universal solution to global connectivity challenges.
>> However, a more pragmatic view reveals that satellite networks
>> like those operated by Starlink offer revolutionary opportunities
>> but are unlikely to make terrestrial mobile networks obsolete.
>> Instead, these technologies will coexist, each serving distinct
>> roles in the communication ecosystem.
>>
>> **
>>
>> There are many mobile telecom operators which fear that low earth
>> orbit (LEO) satellite networks like Starlink and others could
>> impact their business in a negative way like over the top (OTT)
>> providers. Indeed, there is a concern about traffic and revenue
>> moving away from mobile networks to providers which do not have
>> the same regulatory obligations or cost structure. For example,
>> in some countries, some LEO satellite providers do not pay for
>> the use of radio spectrum. These are important issues to examine
>> in their short, medium and long term impacts.
>>
>> Strand Consult’s global project for Broadband Cost Recovery and
>> Business Models
>> <https://strandconsult.dk/category/fair-cost-recovery/> examines
>> the challenges for mobile telecom operators to build and run
>> networks and the set of solutions to improve return on
>> investment. A key region impacted by LEO satellites is the
>> Caribbean. Strand Consult’s report /“Gigabit Caribbean: Closing
>> the Investment Gap in Fixed and Mobile Networks”
>> <https://strandconsult.dk/gigabit-caribbean-closing-the-investment-gap-in-fixed-and-mobile-networks/>
>> /describes the inherent challenge to deliver return on investment
>> in remote areas with limited population and in the face of
>> growing traffic from outside providers which contribute zero
>> financially to the local economy. LEO satellites may be a
>> double-edged sword in that they may provide connectivity in an
>> emergency, but they do not conform to local regulatory
>> requirements, nor do they participate locally financially. The
>> issue is also relevant for rural broadband providers in the USA
>> which Strand Consult documented in its report “Broadband Cost
>> Recovery: A Study of Business Models for 50 Broadband Providers
>> In 24 US States.”
>> <https://strandconsult.dk/broadband-cost-recovery-a-study-of-50-broadband-providers-in-24-us-states-new-report-from-strand-consult/>
>>
>> **
>>
>> *The Satellite Race to Reach the Phone.*
>>
>> Among the various players in the Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite
>> market, Starlink
>> <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-24-1193A1.pdf>, led
>> by Elon Musk’s SpaceX, has emerged as the frontrunner. With a
>> network of almost 7,000 satellites operating, 300+ (2^nd
>> generation or Gen2) satellites have Direct-to-Cell capabilities
>> <https://www.theverge.com/2024/11/27/24307394/starlink-spacex-tmobile-direct-to-cell-satellite-fcc-approval>.
>> SpaceX's spectrum regulatory approach outside the U.S. has been
>> criticized for not always adhering to local licensing frameworks
>> (e.g., cases in India, France, and South Africa). Its reliance on
>> spectrum that local regulators have not officially granted can
>> create tensions with governments and local telecom providers.
>> Starlink operates a global satellite network with thousands of
>> satellites covering areas without always having lawful access to
>> the spectrum on which it provides services.
>>
>> This is an even more significant challenge regarding the regular
>> cellular spectrum used for traditional mobile cellular services
>> licensed and used by local telecommunication companies. Thus, it
>> requires, at least, the satellite operator to collaborate locally
>> with telco operators who have the usage rights of the cellular
>> spectrum of interest. Despite these challenges, Starlink’s
>> aggressive strategy and innovative technology have placed it
>> light years ahead of competitors like Amazon’s Kuiper
>> <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-23-114A1.pdf> and
>> Eutelsat’s OneWeb <https://oneweb.net/>. As of January 2025,
>> Amazon's Project Kuiper has not yet launched
>> <https://techxplore.com/news/2024-07-amazon-kuiper-delays-satellite-timeline.html>
>> any operational satellites, including those with Direct-to-Cell
>> (D2C) capabilities. The project is still in development, with
>> plans to deploy a constellation of 3,236 LEO satellites to
>> provide global broadband coverage.
>>
>> One of the most remarkable aspects of Starlink’s success is its
>> ability to build a functional global network without initial
>> access to the necessary spectrum. This bold approach has drawn
>> comparisons to Jeff Bezos’ Kuiper project, with Strand Consult
>> humorously observing that while Bezos is still setting up a
>> “burger bar,” Musk is already running an “interstellar McDonald’s.
>>
>> In the report you can read about the companies that are advancing
>> D2C connectivity through LEO satellite constellations, aiming to
>> connect standard mobile devices directly to satellites.
>>
>> Among them, AST SpaceMobile
>> <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-24-756A1.pdf> has
>> launched five operational satellites, detailed in FCC filings, to
>> deliver 4G and 5G services globally, with plans to expand its
>> network with up to 243 satellites. AST SpaceMobile's advanced
>> phased-array antenna, BlueWalker 3
>> <https://ast-science.com/spacemobile-network/bluewalker-3/>, is
>> one of the most powerful in the industry required to deliver good
>> quality services to unmodified cellular consumer devices.
>> Similarly, Lynk Global
>> <https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-22-969A1.pdf> has
>> deployed satellites to provide coverage in remote areas,
>> emphasizing partnerships with telecom operators and regulatory
>> approvals.
>>
>> Geespace <https://www.geespace.com/>, part of Geely Technology
>> Group, has launched 30 satellites in China and plans to expand to
>> 72 by 2025, targeting global broadband and D2C capabilities. The
>> Qianfan ("Thousand Sails") constellation
>> <https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/china-launches-first-satellites-constellation-rival-starlink-newspaper-reports-2024-08-05/>,
>> in intent and capabilities closest to SpaceX, is another Chinese
>> initiative that has deployed 54 satellites and aims for over
>> 15,000 by 2030, positioning itself as a major player in
>> satellite-based communications. US and Chinese initiatives drive
>> significant advancements in D2C technology, integrating satellite
>> connectivity into everyday communications and addressing global
>> coverage challenges.
>>
>> **
>>
>> *Some Takeaways.*
>>
>> Direct-to-Cell LEO satellite networks face considerable
>> technology hurdles in providing services comparable to
>> terrestrial cellular networks.
>>
>> * *They must overcome substantial free-space path loss* and
>> ensure uplink connectivity from low-power mobile devices with
>> omnidirectional antennas.
>> * Cellular devices transmit at low power (typically 23–30 dBm),
>> making it *very challenging for uplink cellular signals* to
>> reach satellites in LEO at 300–1,200 km altitudes,
>> particularly if the cellular device is indoor.
>> * Uplink signals from multiple devices within a satellite beam
>> area can overlap, creating *interference that challenges the
>> satellite’s ability to separate and process individual uplink
>> signals*.
>> * *Must address bandwidth limitations* and efficiently
>> reuse spectrum while minimizing interference with terrestrial
>> and other satellite networks.
>> * Scaling globally may *require satellites to carry varied
>> payload configurations to accommodate regional spectrum
>> requirements*, increasing technical complexity and deployment
>> expenses.
>> * Operating on terrestrial frequencies *necessitates dynamic
>> spectrum sharing and interference mitigation strategies*,
>> especially in densely populated areas, limiting coverage
>> efficiency and capacity.
>> *
>>
>> On the regulatory front, integrating D2C satellite services into
>> existing mobile ecosystems is complex. Spectrum licensing is a
>> key issue, as satellite operators must either share frequencies
>> already allocated to terrestrial mobile operators or secure
>> dedicated satellite spectrum.
>>
>> * *Securing access to shared or dedicated spectrum*,
>> particularly negotiating with terrestrial operators to use
>> licensed frequencies.
>> * *Avoiding interference* between satellite and terrestrial
>> networks requires detailed agreements and advanced spectrum
>> management techniques.
>> * *Navigating fragmented regulatory frameworks* in Europe,
>> where national licensing requirements vary significantly.
>> * The high administrative and operational *burden of scaling
>> globally* diminishes economic benefits, particularly in
>> regions where terrestrial networks already dominate.
>>
>> The idea of D2C-capable satellite networks making terrestrial
>> cellular networks obsolete is ambitious but fraught with
>> practical limitations. While LEO satellites offer unparalleled
>> reach in remote and underserved areas, they struggle to match
>> terrestrial networks’ capacity, reliability, and low latency in
>> urban and suburban environments. The high density of base
>> stations in terrestrial networks enables them to handle far
>> greater traffic volumes, especially for data-intensive applications.
>>
>> The regulatory and operational constraints surrounding using
>> terrestrial mobile frequencies for D2C services severely limit
>> scalability. This fragmentation makes it difficult to achieve
>> global coverage seamlessly and increases operational and economic
>> inefficiencies. While D2C services hold promise for addressing
>> connectivity gaps in remote areas, their ability to scale as a
>> comprehensive alternative to terrestrial networks is hampered by
>> these challenges. Unless global regulatory harmonization or
>> innovative technical solutions emerge, D2C networks will likely
>> remain a complementary, sub-scale solution rather than a
>> standalone replacement for terrestrial mobile networks.
>>
>> The report */"Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make
>> Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete?"/* is valuable for mobile
>> operators and their shareholders, policymakers, security and
>> defense analysts, network engineers, and other professionals.
>>
>> Let me know your feedback and questions.
>>
>> Best regards,
>>
>> John Strand
>>
>> Strand Consult is an independent, privately owned consultancy
>> company. Our main focus is in the wireless sector, what it looks
>> like, how it is developing and how it influences a number of
>> other sectors. Through our research, reports, workshops and
>> consulting, we help create and expand our customers’ revenue
>> streams by maximising the use of all the new possibilities and
>> opportunities that arise with new technologies and business
>> strategies. About Strand Consult <http://www.strandreports.com>
>>
>> Our primary customers are national and international mobile
>> operators and our list of customers currently includes over 170
>> mobile operators spread across Europe, South America, North
>> America, Australia, Asia and Africa. Based on our research and
>> work with mobile operators we additionally help many customers in
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>> more about how the telecom industry is influencing their industry.
>>
>> We are regarded as one of the leading authorities on mobile
>> technologies, business and revenue models and distribution
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>> in their outlook. They do not focus on a single area, but always
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>>
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>> number of the International conferences about the mobile and
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>>
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--
****************************************************************
Dr. Ulrich Speidel
School of Computer Science
Room 303S.594 (City Campus)
The University of Auckland
u.speidel at auckland.ac.nz
http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~ulrich/
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